OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Dow 35k soon?

Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: ‘Dow could easily tack on another 10% to 15%,’ but warns of a near-term setback

Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel builds his 2021 bull case for stocks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[applesktrack]

well, I say this very respectfully, if you have to ask then you don't know enough to not ask which means, you're an uneducated investor. That's not a dig, it's the difference between 'smart money' and 'dumb money' and as such, should be more vanilla in your approach. The world of investing is not like monopoly and there is a reason more people lose than win. I'm a fixed income and rates product guy who left that business and those bonuses to be home full time with my sons but still pay attention and have my own portfolio. Investing on margin and in options is something that 99% of the retail community should stay away from. Any broker suggesting you play in this space, knowing you are not adept of it's nuances (based on your posts here), is someone you should not do business with.

I just started investing in march. I am doing ok and looking into doing leap options at somepoint, not yet though. I know i am still new but have studied a bit. I like the leap options as a way to leverage a little and help roic. But i may also be an idiot.

 

[bob-loblaw]

you are not buying for today's technology and ability, you are buying tomorrow. You are right on the energy consumption but ETH is global and open so it's somewhat different. It's either Lindburgh or Emelia. Pick your risk, your horizon, your view and go with it.

Very well said. If what I think will happen happens, I'll be happy I invested when I did. My hope is that a small investment today does as much or more than my primary (traditional) investments.

I just started investing in march. I am doing ok and looking into doing leap options at somepoint, not yet though. I know i am still new but have studied a bit. I like the leap options as a way to leverage a little and help roic. But i may also be an idiot.

Be careful with options. It's hard to know when to get out, or to have the fortitude to walk away from the table. I got greedy on SPY options earlier this year. Was up A LOT and god a bad case of diamond hands. I wound up cashing out even, but it cost me thousands.

 

[RU-05]

you are not buying for today's technology and ability, you are buying tomorrow. You are right on the energy consumption but ETH is global and open so it's somewhat different. It's either Lindburgh or Emelia. Pick your risk, your horizon, your view and go with it.

How bout ETHE as a way to get in on ETH?

 

[RU-05]

I just started investing in march. I am doing ok and looking into doing leap options at somepoint, not yet though. I know i am still new but have studied a bit. I like the leap options as a way to leverage a little and help roic. But i may also be an idiot.

If you're intent on doing it, just start super small, get comfortable with it.

 

[ScarletNut]

How bout ETHE as a way to get in on ETH?

I'm in ETHE but did so before doing adequate research on it. Unlike GBTC, it doesn't track ethereum dollar for dollar. In my case, I own it at almost a 100% premium. It's starting to move again but I should have done more homework on it. I am a big believer in ethereum as a platform and a cryptocurrency.

 

[Randal7]

BlackBerry. That's the stock.

 

[RU-05]

I'm in ETHE but did so before doing adequate research on it. Unlike GBTC, it doesn't track ethereum dollar for dollar. In my case, I own it at almost a 100% premium. It's starting to move again but I should have done more homework on it. I am a big believer in ethereum as a platform and a cryptocurrency.

Is the reason one tracks while the other doesn't merely market awareness?

I actually like that ETHE is down relative. I'd also say that the reason it was down was because money was flowing to GBTC and the block chain companies. I mentioned BTBT recently which has just been on fire.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Never invest what you are not comfortable losing. Weigh the risk with the reward, not the reward with the risk

Bond buys vs stock guys...lol

Completely agree with you. I’ve been trading and investing about twenty years and I still consider myself “dumb money” and only stick with things I’m comfortable with and that usually means large/megacap stocks mostly. I’m joe retail, like I said earlier in the thread most of the things in this thread I wouldn’t touch.

Actually kind of makes me wonder if we’re near at least a near term top when I see retail guys like me mention somewhat more esoteric investments and trades.

Also came across this, not sure if it was already posted, not that it’s something I’d get into myself.

JPMorgan says bitcoin could rise to $146,000 long term as it competes with gold

Bitcoin's volatility would need to drop substantially before it can match gold in terms of market value, the bank's strategists said in a note Monday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

ZOM. Penny stock that has been running on news of it's first product release. Currently non revenue, but some pretty lofty estimates for the years ahead.

 

[ScarletNut]

Is the reason one tracks while the other doesn't merely market awareness?

I actually like that ETHE is down relative. I'd also say that the reason it was down was because money was flowing to GBTC and the block chain companies. I mentioned BTBT recently which has just been on fire.

Check out this link:

Grayscale Ethereum Trust Is Not The Way To Invest In Ethereum (OTCMKTS:ETHE)

ETHE doesn't track Ethereum. It is way too expensive.

seekingalpha.com

ETHE is actually not trading down relative to ethereum, its still at a high premium

 

[RU-05]

Completely agree with you. I’ve been trading and investing about twenty years and I still consider myself “dumb money” and only stick with things I’m comfortable with and that usually means large/megacap stocks mostly. I’m joe retail, like I said earlier in the thread most of the things in this thread I wouldn’t touch.

Actually kind of makes me wonder if we’re near at least a near term top when I see retail guys like me mention somewhat more esoteric investments and trades.

Also came across this, not sure if it was already posted, not that it’s something I’d get into myself.

JPMorgan says bitcoin could rise to $146,000 long term as it competes with gold

Bitcoin's volatility would need to drop substantially before it can match gold in terms of market value, the bank's strategists said in a note Monday.

www.cnbc.com

I've heard a $100K for 2021.

So yeah, a lot of positive sentiment going on there.

 

[ScarletNut]

I've heard a $100K for 2021.

So yeah, a lot of positive sentiment going on there.

Lots of predictions close to 100k by this summer.

 

[RU-05]

Check out this link:

Grayscale Ethereum Trust Is Not The Way To Invest In Ethereum (OTCMKTS:ETHE)

ETHE doesn't track Ethereum. It is way too expensive.

seekingalpha.com

ETHE is actually not trading down relative to ethereum, its still at a high premium

I meant down relative to BTC, but I will look into that link later. Have to head back to work. 😭

 

[T2Kplus20]

ZOM. Penny stock that has been running on news of it's first product release. Currently non revenue, but some pretty lofty estimates for the years ahead.

When I hear the term penny stock, can't help but think about Stratton Oakmont.
:)

 

[R1766U]

well, I say this very respectfully, if you have to ask then you don't know enough to not ask which means, you're an uneducated investor. That's not a dig, it's the difference between 'smart money' and 'dumb money' and as such, should be more vanilla in your approach. The world of investing is not like monopoly and there is a reason more people lose than win. I'm a fixed income and rates product guy who left that business and those bonuses to be home full time with my sons but still pay attention and have my own portfolio. Investing on margin and in options is something that 99% of the retail community should stay away from. Any broker suggesting you play in this space, knowing you are not adept of it's nuances (based on your posts here), is someone you should not do business with.

Thanks! Appreciate your take— no offense taken!

 

[RU-05]

When I hear the term penny stock, can't help but think about Stratton Oakmont.
:)

You guys make me feel like a stock bimbo because I'm willing to put money on these companies, but I've done pretty well thus far.

There is certainly risk, they are certainly volatile stocks, but I start with small positions and I pull profits when they get rolling.

Maybe these things don't work in normal market environments, but they seem to be working pretty well in this market.

 

[RU-05]

Check out this link:

Grayscale Ethereum Trust Is Not The Way To Invest In Ethereum (OTCMKTS:ETHE)

ETHE doesn't track Ethereum. It is way too expensive.

seekingalpha.com

ETHE is actually not trading down relative to ethereum, its still at a high premium

How bout the concern for the BTC etf being approved by the SEC and what that would do to GBTC?

Also why do you think BTBT took off the way it did recently? Was the quarterly that impressive that it showed itself to be the block chain company best in class? Or was it, to some extent at least, runaway momentum?

 

[ScarletNut]

How bout the concern for the BTC etf being approved by the SEC and what that would do to GBTC?

Also why do you think BTBT took off the way it did recently? Was the quarterly that impressive that it showed itself to be the block chain company best in class? Or was it, to some extent at least, runaway momentum?

The person I follow who turned me on to GBTC said that a Bitcoin etf would have the same premium the GBTC carries due to demand and increasing acceptance. He didn’t think it would have an impact other than maybe increasing the buzz about bitcoin.

 

[Frida's Boss]

Frida,
I respect your POV and agree with 99.9% of your posts. My question to you regarding bitcoin is your hesitance based on relative lack of knowledge about it and crypto in general, its relative newness vs other currencies, stores of value, etc.? Does the fact that stodgy firms like MassMutual, Fidelity, Citi, etc, are jumping in, not make you reevaluate your thoughts? I am by no means trying to change your opinion, just trying to understand where you're coming from. Previous bubbles were not welcomed with open arms like bitcoin has been, other than the CDO and derivatives fiasco of 2008.

Thanks for your comments. In general, I’m a septic of any instrument that can’t be valued by looking at asset value or future streams of income. If a security lacks either, it is a speculation and not an investment. If the only way you can determine what you own is worth is by looking at a quoted price, then it’s not an investment. Crypto currencies are all of those things without a track record to evaluate and analyze, That sounds harsh, but I do see the reason people own speculative instruments. I would include gold in that group, despite its extremely long record as a store of value and as money, Gold will never produce an ounce of cash flow absent a sale.

I suppose it comes down to this. If the stock market closed for 5 years, I could still objectively determine the value, within a range, and price I’d be willing to pay to own a share of stock in a business. Same with bonds. Could you do that with a cryptocurrency? What would you pay for bitcoin if no tradable market existed for 5 years, and why? if so, how would you value it? And why would you do so in your chosen manner? Absent satisfactory answers to those questions, I couldn’t justify owning it. That doesn’t mean holders may not do well, even very well. But if they do, it’s Not because someone has a better insight on value vs price.

 

[RU-05]

Time to sell the news on Renewables and Weed? Or are we still in rumor stage, and the news would be the actual passage of legislation?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Interesting column on Bitcoin:

What is behind the recent surge in the price of bitcoin?

It is hard to discern the underlying logic behind the switch among not just cryptocurrency evangelists but also mainstream institutional investors toward bitcoin and away from gold as an inflation …

thehill.com

The last sentence sums it up nicely (regarding when the bubble may break):

"Growing popularity might also subject cryptocurrencies to increased regulatory scrutiny in the not too distant future."

 

[RU-05]

Back to back big days. Apparently I was well positioned for a blue wave.

Surprised oil and banks are up though.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Back to back big days. Apparently I was well positioned for a blue wave.

Surprised oil and banks are up though.

Small and mids are doing nicely. The market may get spoked a bit with the Dems, but it is smart enough to realize that with razor thin majorities (and actually a tie in the Senate), nothing scary will get passed.

 

[ScarletNut]

Interesting column on Bitcoin:

What is behind the recent surge in the price of bitcoin?

It is hard to discern the underlying logic behind the switch among not just cryptocurrency evangelists but also mainstream institutional investors toward bitcoin and away from gold as an inflation …

thehill.com

The last sentence sums it up nicely (regarding when the bubble may break):

"Growing popularity might also subject cryptocurrencies to increased regulatory scrutiny in the not too distant future."

Regulation could be an issue down the line but I find it extremely difficult considering bitcoin is worldwide. You'd have to have miraculous cooperation amongst all nations to get real regulatory control.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Regulation could be an issue down the line but I find it extremely difficult considering bitcoin is worldwide. You'd have to have miraculous cooperation amongst all nations to get real regulatory control.

The US or EU can put a very quick end to Bitcoin and crytos for legitimate purposes. Not saying they would go this far, but they definitely have the power.

 

[RU-05]

The US or EU can put a very quick end to Bitcoin and crytos for legitimate purposes. Not saying they would go this far, but they definitely have the power.

Gov'ts have the power to wreak havoc on any sector, or the converse breathe life into a sector. We see that playing out right now.

But they typically give warning and right now their focus is elsewhere.

 

[ScarletNut]

The US or EU can put a very quick end to Bitcoin and crytos for legitimate purposes. Not saying they would go this far, but they definitely have the power.

That doesn't cover the globe. Asia, Africa and S. America account for a lot of the volume. It wouldn't be difficult to circumvent US or EU controls. It's not as black and white as you point out.

 

[RUJohnny99]

You guys make me feel like a stock bimbo because I'm willing to put money on these companies, but I've done pretty well thus far.

There is certainly risk, they are certainly volatile stocks, but I start with small positions and I pull profits when they get rolling.

Maybe these things don't work in normal market environments, but they seem to be working pretty well in this market.

Penny stocks ALWAYS work, until they don't.

After you are outright screwed by frontrunning execs and their ability to issue unlimited new shares to dilute your winnings away to nothing, you'll stop playing in that puddle of mud.

 

[RU-05]

Penny stocks ALWAYS work, until they don't.

After you are outright screwed by frontrunning execs and their ability to issue unlimited new shares to dilute your winnings away to nothing, you'll stop playing in that puddle of mud.

Maybe, I've had a few not work, but if I have 3 that are up and one that is down, I'm not going to let the one that is down, outweigh the 3 that are up.

If and when that ratio goes the other way, then I'll change my practices, but I'm taking the winnings in the meantime.

 

[RU-05]

Damn, I thought I was doing well but the R2K got me beat. 4%. That's a move right there.

 

[RU-05]

10 yr breaks through 1%, thus the moves by the banks, which are having a big day.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Rising tides lift all boats....never forget that

That said, interesting piece here

 

[T2Kplus20]

Damn, I thought I was doing well but the R2K got me beat. 4%. That's a move right there.

Mo money! :)

 

[RU-05]

Rising tides lift all boats....never forget that

That said, interesting piece here

View embedded media

So what do you see as the best way to buy into ETH without actually buying ETH?

Side note, when you mentioned ETH the other day I looked up the ticker and saw Ethan Allen, Which also looks to have solid earnings estimates over the next couple years.

 

[RU-05]

Mo money! :)

Now I'm up over 4%, but the R2K is currently at 4.6%.

 

[RU-05]

Steve Weiss calls GBTC as his final trade.

Someone said it the other day, that the CNBC guys tend to be late to the party, but more and more people are coming to this party.

 

[RU-05]

Getting that run from BTCS I was looking for . Up 60% today.

 

[ScarletNut]

So what do you see as the best way to buy into ETH without actually buying ETH?

Side note, when you mentioned ETH the other day I looked up the ticker and saw Ethan Allen, Which also looks to have solid earnings estimates over the next couple years.

ETH refers to ethereum which you can purchase through Coinbase or other app. ETHE is the Grayscale ethereum trust which tracks ETH but at a high premium.

 

[RUTGERS95]

So what do you see as the best way to buy into ETH without actually buying ETH?

Side note, when you mentioned ETH the other day I looked up the ticker and saw Ethan Allen, Which also looks to have solid earnings estimates over the next couple years.

lol...you are not the first one!

Coinbase is having technical issues today so that is interesting