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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

I'm hearing a ton of chatter on CNBC.

Maybe the difference this time, as noted, is the chatter is on the institutional level, and not at the cab driver level.
Thats EXACTLY it!

It’s the FOMO effect. Everyone is telling anyone who’ll listen that they some exposure to it. The problem comes when there is a stampede exit. No value buyer will step in to stop the slide.

There's been multiple exits the last few months, and it has rebounded each time. Its been over 10k since July. Every dip is going to be viewed as another entry point by someone or some group.

The alt coin rally is about to happen, as they havent kept pace with BTC. Ether has popped nice, but not much else. I've been dripping into a few alt coins the last month waiting for the dip in BTC (which just hasnt happened)
 
The "purported" scarcity of Bitcoin has been well known even in 2018/2019 when it crashed. That's not a selling point, IMHO. And this "halving" news came out perfectly timed when Bitcoin was down and major holders needed a way out. Lastly, Visa, Paypal, Square, etc... aren't processing Bitcoin payments out of the goodness of their hearts. They want to take a cut, just like any other transaction.

I'm not hating on people that make money on Bitcoin or overvalued stocks like Tesla. They took the risks and deserve the rewards. I'm happy with my investments and my gains.

The best analogy I can draw is: Do I wish I was married to the Homecoming Queen? Yes, but I'm not yet I'm still happy and grateful for the wife and family I have. However, if I told you your Homecoming Queen wife texted nudes to my brother, don't get mad at ME.
 
The "purported" scarcity of Bitcoin has been well known even in 2018/2019 when it crashed. That's not a selling point, IMHO. And this "halving" news came out perfectly timed when Bitcoin was down and major holders needed a way out. Lastly, Visa, Paypal, Square, etc... aren't processing Bitcoin payments out of the goodness of their hearts. They want to take a cut, just like any other transaction.

I'm not hating on people that make money on Bitcoin or overvalued stocks like Tesla. They took the risks and deserve the rewards. I'm happy with my investments and my gains.

The best analogy I can draw is: Do I wish I was married to the Homecoming Queen? Yes, but I'm not yet I'm still happy and grateful for the wife and family I have. However, if I told you your Homecoming Queen wife texted nudes to my brother, don't get mad at ME.
Purported is reality. The halving occurred right when it was supposed to. It a consistent thing that occurs when a certain # of BTC have been mined. But hey, lets just throw some "quotes" around things and assume them to be controversial. And yes the Paypal / Square obviously see a money making opportunity. Again, why pretend this is a bad thing.

Love the analogy btw. Its pretty funny.
 
SNOW get's a lot grief for it's valuation, with a price to sales at 170x.

But how bout BLNK, at 300x? I wanted to get in at $12, and have watched it run to $42.
 
Futures are flat for the first trading session of 2021.

Also, the bear perspective (to be fair and balanced):

Not completely bearish.

From the story:

For the next 12 months, Rosenberg plans to avoid last year’s winners. His top strategy include laggards utilities and energy.

“What I want to do actually in the context of this bubbly stock market is invest in the areas that are not bubbly and that have a lot of catch-up potential,” he said. “They do exist.”

But there is an exception: Gold, which just completed its best year in a decade. Rosenberg views it as a safe haven asset.

“It has 1/5 of the volatility that bitcoin does,” Rosenberg said. “I’ve been very bullish on gold, and I remain bullish on gold.”
 
Not completely bearish.

From the story:

For the next 12 months, Rosenberg plans to avoid last year’s winners. His top strategy include laggards utilities and energy.

“What I want to do actually in the context of this bubbly stock market is invest in the areas that are not bubbly and that have a lot of catch-up potential,” he said. “They do exist.”

But there is an exception: Gold, which just completed its best year in a decade. Rosenberg views it as a safe haven asset.

“It has 1/5 of the volatility that bitcoin does,” Rosenberg said. “I’ve been very bullish on gold, and I remain bullish on gold.”
Yeah, definitely true. He is saying a lot of what I always say. The market is overvalued based on normal times, but the game has changed and this "bubble" isn't going anywhere due to interest rates and fed activities. So enjoy the party!

Adding VOT to our brokerage account tomorrow:

 
Not completely bearish.

From the story:

For the next 12 months, Rosenberg plans to avoid last year’s winners. His top strategy include laggards utilities and energy.

“What I want to do actually in the context of this bubbly stock market is invest in the areas that are not bubbly and that have a lot of catch-up potential,” he said. “They do exist.”

But there is an exception: Gold, which just completed its best year in a decade. Rosenberg views it as a safe haven asset.

“It has 1/5 of the volatility that bitcoin does,” Rosenberg said. “I’ve been very bullish on gold, and I remain bullish on gold.”
Been in energy and selected REITS for a bit and agree that these are the 'value' and dare I say, 'growth' plays for 2021

ETH is another one, I think this one has the potential to be a game changer in this space
 
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I was reading this board this AM before I looked at the price of BTC. 30k baby!

It's value is what it is worth and what people will pay for it. No different than any stock price on the exchanges.

This statement is worth identifying and discussing, because I suspect many share this same notion.

The value of a financial asset is not synonymous with its price, Take an extreme example. Suppose you could purchase a stock in a business with no earnings trading at $10 share. This business did, however, own marketable securities which could be readily sold at a price of $20 per share. You could purchase a share in a business with liquid assets of $20 per share for $10. Clearly, the price of $10 is not equal to the value of the share. Now, you may state that such an example is impossible and cannot exist, I’m here to tell you that these examples very well do come about, and I‘ve shared such with other board members. Ask @SkilletHead2

No, you won’t find them in the WSJ or discussed on CNBC. But they are around, and provide strong downside protection along with plenty of upside.

And as for bitcoin. I’ve nothing against it, or anyone who purchases it. But it’s not an instrument that can be valued. Yes, it has a quoted price, but it generates no income, it has no contracted payment stream promised to its holder. It can be purchased and sold at prices in a market which are not determined by any method of valuation. In that respect, it is similar to gold, However, gold has been used by humans for thousands of years as a medium of exchange and a store of value. It is universally accepted. Bitcoin has been around for a little more than a decade, conjured with a computer program that its proponents deem impenetrable. I’m a sceptic, I could be wrong, and it may deliver spectacular returns to its holders. If it does, its because others have come along and paid a higher price for it than the selling holder paid. It’s not because it has become intrinsically more valuable, because it has no intrinsic value.
 
Been in energy and selected REITS for a bit and agree that these are the 'value' and dare I say, 'growth' plays for 2021

ETH is another one, I think this one has the potential to be a game changer in this space
Always love a good recommendation. 👍
 
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So today told me I'm still too heavy in the high running techs, while also being too early on the reopening trade. I've been looking to get out of the former and I might abandon the latter in the near term.

Gold, silver, copper, crypto, cannabis, renewables kept me in line with the indexes.

I did have a down on it's luck penny stock pop today, NSPR, which does have estimates of significant revenue growth this year.
 
So today told me I'm still too heavy in the high running techs, while also being too early on the reopening trade. I've been looking to get out of the former and I might abandon the latter in the near term.

Gold, silver, copper, crypto, cannabis, renewables kept me in line with the indexes.

I did have a down on it's luck penny stock pop today, NSPR, which does have estimates of significant revenue growth this year.
Down day, but off to a modestly lucky start. Today was reallocation day for our E-Trade account (held off on doing so in Dec due to tax consequences). Sold $20k of assets within 5 mins of the bell (mostly IWF and VIG) just before the market dumped. Bought back in at 2pm'ish, which seemed to be the lower water mark of the day. Nice instant 2% gain on this money. :)

Decided to buy VO instead of VOT. Added to VWIGX and VONE.
 
Just throwing this out here. Have been reading a lot about buying on margin. My broker has floated the idea out there to slowly start buying some stock on margin to increase wealth. This is a long term investment account that I don’t mind some risk. I do not know much about using margin but was considering maybe buying about 10k to test the waters, see how it works out. I am a relative novice to investing so would love to hear some more experienced takes. My broker is not pressuring me at all, just has explained how it can help exponentially grow wealth. What are some questions I should ask.

Thanks for any insight. Any feedback appreciated.
 
This statement is worth identifying and discussing, because I suspect many share this same notion.

The value of a financial asset is not synonymous with its price, Take an extreme example. Suppose you could purchase a stock in a business with no earnings trading at $10 share. This business did, however, own marketable securities which could be readily sold at a price of $20 per share. You could purchase a share in a business with liquid assets of $20 per share for $10. Clearly, the price of $10 is not equal to the value of the share. Now, you may state that such an example is impossible and cannot exist, I’m here to tell you that these examples very well do come about, and I‘ve shared such with other board members. Ask @SkilletHead2

No, you won’t find them in the WSJ or discussed on CNBC. But they are around, and provide strong downside protection along with plenty of upside.

And as for bitcoin. I’ve nothing against it, or anyone who purchases it. But it’s not an instrument that can be valued. Yes, it has a quoted price, but it generates no income, it has no contracted payment stream promised to its holder. It can be purchased and sold at prices in a market which are not determined by any method of valuation. In that respect, it is similar to gold, However, gold has been used by humans for thousands of years as a medium of exchange and a store of value. It is universally accepted. Bitcoin has been around for a little more than a decade, conjured with a computer program that its proponents deem impenetrable. I’m a sceptic, I could be wrong, and it may deliver spectacular returns to its holders. If it does, its because others have come along and paid a higher price for it than the selling holder paid. It’s not because it has become intrinsically more valuable, because it has no intrinsic value.
great post!
 
There are reliable sources on this board:

@zappaa Baseball
Numb3rs Weather
Bac Incredibly detailed postgame bball analysis
CoachKos Gardening
beaced Stuff from before any of us was born

When it comes to finance and Wall Street, that person is @Frida's Boss.

He knows what he is talking about and never BS's. His advice to me was highly successful. If he did private financial management, I'd put my 401K with him.

On other topics, bitcoin is the weirdest thing. The only thing I can figure is that part of its appeal is that it is useful in illegal financial transactions. Of course, to a much lesser degree, I have the same problem with gold. Why is it so valuable other than it is? Real estate and cheese steak hogies, I understand. Gold and bitcoin, not so much.
 
Just throwing this out here. Have been reading a lot about buying on margin. My broker has floated the idea out there to slowly start buying some stock on margin to increase wealth. This is a long term investment account that I don’t mind some risk. I do not know much about using margin but was considering maybe buying about 10k to test the waters, see how it works out. I am a relative novice to investing so would love to hear some more experienced takes. My broker is not pressuring me at all, just has explained how it can help exponentially grow wealth. What are some questions I should ask.

Thanks for any insight. Any feedback appreciated.
Sorry, no experience with buying on margin, but I know plenty of people do this.
 
Just throwing this out here. Have been reading a lot about buying on margin. My broker has floated the idea out there to slowly start buying some stock on margin to increase wealth. This is a long term investment account that I don’t mind some risk. I do not know much about using margin but was considering maybe buying about 10k to test the waters, see how it works out. I am a relative novice to investing so would love to hear some more experienced takes. My broker is not pressuring me at all, just has explained how it can help exponentially grow wealth. What are some questions I should ask.

Thanks for any insight. Any feedback appreciated.
don't

if he tells you to look into options after you say no to margin, dump him and go to someone else
 
On other topics, bitcoin is the weirdest thing. The only thing I can figure is that part of its appeal is that it is useful in illegal financial transactions.
This seems to be accurate, which means, sooner or later the gov will step in and put restrictions on it.
 
This statement is worth identifying and discussing, because I suspect many share this same notion.

The value of a financial asset is not synonymous with its price, Take an extreme example. Suppose you could purchase a stock in a business with no earnings trading at $10 share. This business did, however, own marketable securities which could be readily sold at a price of $20 per share. You could purchase a share in a business with liquid assets of $20 per share for $10. Clearly, the price of $10 is not equal to the value of the share. Now, you may state that such an example is impossible and cannot exist, I’m here to tell you that these examples very well do come about, and I‘ve shared such with other board members. Ask @SkilletHead2

No, you won’t find them in the WSJ or discussed on CNBC. But they are around, and provide strong downside protection along with plenty of upside.

And as for bitcoin. I’ve nothing against it, or anyone who purchases it. But it’s not an instrument that can be valued. Yes, it has a quoted price, but it generates no income, it has no contracted payment stream promised to its holder. It can be purchased and sold at prices in a market which are not determined by any method of valuation. In that respect, it is similar to gold, However, gold has been used by humans for thousands of years as a medium of exchange and a store of value. It is universally accepted. Bitcoin has been around for a little more than a decade, conjured with a computer program that its proponents deem impenetrable. I’m a sceptic, I could be wrong, and it may deliver spectacular returns to its holders. If it does, its because others have come along and paid a higher price for it than the selling holder paid. It’s not because it has become intrinsically more valuable, because it has no intrinsic value.
agree on Bitcoin as well however, the move to digitize the currencies and look to increase taxes will propel this and other bitcoins higher. As for 'true value', look at ETH (ethereum) . Bitcoin is like a gas tank with no car, ETH is the gas tank, tank of gas and with the car. These two are similar and vastly different.
 
Just throwing this out here. Have been reading a lot about buying on margin. My broker has floated the idea out there to slowly start buying some stock on margin to increase wealth. This is a long term investment account that I don’t mind some risk. I do not know much about using margin but was considering maybe buying about 10k to test the waters, see how it works out. I am a relative novice to investing so would love to hear some more experienced takes. My broker is not pressuring me at all, just has explained how it can help exponentially grow wealth. What are some questions I should ask.

Thanks for any insight. Any feedback appreciated.

A relative novice investor should NOT use margin. Time after time over the last 40 years I've seen novice investors get burned with margin calls. Put it this way, if you had bought on margin last January 1, would you have been hit with as margin call in March?
 
agree on Bitcoin as well however, the move to digitize the currencies and look to increase taxes will propel this and other bitcoins higher. As for 'true value', look at ETH (ethereum) . Bitcoin is like a gas tank with no car, ETH is the gas tank, tank of gas and with the car. These two are similar and vastly different.
How are they different?
 
There are reliable sources on this board:

@zappaa Baseball
Numb3rs Weather
Bac Incredibly detailed postgame bball analysis
CoachKos Gardening
beaced Stuff from before any of us was born

When it comes to finance and Wall Street, that person is @Frida's Boss.

He knows what he is talking about and never BS's. His advice to me was highly successful. If he did private financial management, I'd put my 401K with him.

On other topics, bitcoin is the weirdest thing. The only thing I can figure is that part of its appeal is that it is useful in illegal financial transactions. Of course, to a much lesser degree, I have the same problem with gold. Why is it so valuable other than it is? Real estate and cheese steak hogies, I understand. Gold and bitcoin, not so much.

Thank you, Skillet.
 
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agree on Bitcoin as well however, the move to digitize the currencies and look to increase taxes will propel this and other bitcoins higher. As for 'true value', look at ETH (ethereum) . Bitcoin is like a gas tank with no car, ETH is the gas tank, tank of gas and with the car. These two are similar and vastly different.

I don’t discount the chances that bitcoin will rise in price, but I’m just not comfortable with the reasons that could drive it higher. Those reasons, in my view, are ephemeral and lack any solid foundation. Thus, purchases of bitcoin will always be speculations in my assessment and not investments.
 
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I don’t discount the chances that bitcoin will rise in price, but I’m just not comfortable with the reasons that could drive it higher. Those reasons, in my view, are ephemeral and lack any solid foundation. Thus, purchases of bitcoin will always be speculations in my assessment and not investments.
yes I'm with you 100% and echo your sentiment in fact, a mutual friend and I debated this for a few years. All I'm saying is if you research ETH, it's a different animal with 'real' value and legitimate corporate acceptance.
 
I don’t discount the chances that bitcoin will rise in price, but I’m just not comfortable with the reasons that could drive it higher. Those reasons, in my view, are ephemeral and lack any solid foundation. Thus, purchases of bitcoin will always be speculations in my assessment and not investments.
Frida,
I respect your POV and agree with 99.9% of your posts. My question to you regarding bitcoin is your hesitance based on relative lack of knowledge about it and crypto in general, its relative newness vs other currencies, stores of value, etc.? Does the fact that stodgy firms like MassMutual, Fidelity, Citi, etc, are jumping in, not make you reevaluate your thoughts? I am by no means trying to change your opinion, just trying to understand where you're coming from. Previous bubbles were not welcomed with open arms like bitcoin has been, other than the CDO and derivatives fiasco of 2008.
 
yes I'm with you 100% and echo your sentiment in fact, a mutual friend and I debated this for a few years. All I'm saying is if you research ETH, it's a different animal with 'real' value and legitimate corporate acceptance.
To further your point about ETH, the technology of its platform has the potential to disrupt businesses. For example, when purchasing a home, the title search could take up to 30 days currently. The ETH platform (which I believe is beginning to be applied to thousands of businesses) can expedite that search to seconds or minutes instead of weeks. That is revolutionary.
 
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I have that same feeling when I am pushed towards an annuity. I worry it is just a fee generator

The only annuity I would consider is a charitable gift annuity under certain circumstances. And of course that means no fee.
 
don't

if he tells you to look into options after you say no to margin, dump him and go to someone else
Why shouldn’t I? Not questioning you, just would like to hear your take.
Again, I really like and trust him, he is not pushy at all— and has thrown it out as a way to grow wealth.

Love hearing what everyone has to say, helps me see different perspectives and learn new takes!
 
yes I'm with you 100% and echo your sentiment in fact, a mutual friend and I debated this for a few years. All I'm saying is if you research ETH, it's a different animal with 'real' value and legitimate corporate acceptance.

Ethereum as a chain has true value. It has multiple uses on-chain; apps, games, etc. There is a lot of $$ getting put into investments on that chain. The crypto people I lean on for advice in the space all share the same opinion. BTC is the store of value. ETH is the utility. If you trust block chain tech and believe it will never go anywhere, then BTC is that gold. Its chain is used for nothing other than verifying BTC transactions.

The Ethereum chain has all sorts of fun action and tokens that exist on it. There's tokens on there I love. A lot of the alt coins are crapshoots, as anyone who took part in ICO's in 17/18 will tell you. The vast majority are bullshit, but there's always diamonds on the rough with potential to be worth something of substance in the future.

On the Ethereum blockchain I like these guys
AAVE - which has gone up 50% lately.
WOZX - Token associated with EForce, a green tech co with Steve Wozniak involved. Just launched recently. Ran up to $4 a token, has now settled around $1.50.
AXS - Token for pokemon-like game in Asia, where by playing the game youre actively mining for tokens in the background on your mobile device. People are making a living just playing this gam in parts of Asia. If it catches on world-wide, this could be worth something.

Outside of the ETH tokens, there's only one other coin I like
Decred (DCR) - extremely similar to BTC with an added layer of proof of stake to validate changes. It decentralizes the token more. I've watched this coin pop from $20 - $45 the last few mos. If anyone is going to gamble on an altcoin, this is the one.

Yes Frida, coins are in theory speculative, but Blockchain technology is here to stay. It's usage will continue to increase as financial initiations roll out their own coins, and Govt's issue their coins as well. I think between the tech being more accepted, and watching the youth, I'll take crypto over gold as my long-term inflation hedge. And by watching the youth, I mean to ask someone 21 or 22 years old how to buy gold vs crypto. They are much more inclined to own crypto or know how to purchase it, over gold.

EDIT:
Just saw the US Treasury allowed banks to use blockchains and stable coins.
 
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The only annuity I would consider is a charitable gift annuity under certain circumstances. And of course that means no fee.
SPIAs (single premium immediate annuities) are fine in some situations and do not have high fees The market for these is very transparent and competitive, unlike other annuities. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, many insurance advisors (salesmen) won’t even sell SPIAs. SPIAs are the only type I’d consider, but admittedly I have not purchased them.
 
Just throwing this out here. Have been reading a lot about buying on margin. My broker has floated the idea out there to slowly start buying some stock on margin to increase wealth. This is a long term investment account that I don’t mind some risk. I do not know much about using margin but was considering maybe buying about 10k to test the waters, see how it works out. I am a relative novice to investing so would love to hear some more experienced takes. My broker is not pressuring me at all, just has explained how it can help exponentially grow wealth. What are some questions I should ask.

Thanks for any insight. Any feedback appreciated.

There's nothing wrong with margin because it's just a loan from your broker. What is dangerous is how you use it.

For example: They might give you margin buying power of $50K at 2% annually. Then you buy $50K worth of AAPL and the stock goes up 3.5% every year, you're good.

If you take that $50K and buy AMC, then you're ****ed.
 
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There's nothing wrong with margin because it's just a loan from your broker. What is dangerous is how you use it.

For example: They might give you margin buying power of $50K at 2% annually. Then you buy $50K worth of AAPL and the stock goes up 3.5% every year, you're good.

If you take that $50K and buy AMC, then you're ****ed.

And you get the margin call at the worst possible time.
 
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Why shouldn’t I? Not questioning you, just would like to hear your take.
Again, I really like and trust him, he is not pushy at all— and has thrown it out as a way to grow wealth.

Love hearing what everyone has to say, helps me see different perspectives and learn new takes!
well, I say this very respectfully, if you have to ask then you don't know enough to not ask which means, you're an uneducated investor. That's not a dig, it's the difference between 'smart money' and 'dumb money' and as such, should be more vanilla in your approach. The world of investing is not like monopoly and there is a reason more people lose than win. I'm a fixed income and rates product guy who left that business and those bonuses to be home full time with my sons but still pay attention and have my own portfolio. Investing on margin and in options is something that 99% of the retail community should stay away from. Any broker suggesting you play in this space, knowing you are not adept of it's nuances (based on your posts here), is someone you should not do business with.
 
Dosent blockchain as a whole have bottleneck/scalability issues? When alts were pumping a few months ago and everyone was buying and selling the fees were so high and transactions so slow. Sometimes hours. It is my understanding and I may not know enough about it but they don’t have a fix to make it faster. Not to mention the energy consumption that blockchain demands. I’ve been in crypto for a while. It is such a gamble and speculative but the rewards can be great.
 
Dosent blockchain as a whole have bottleneck/scalability issues? When alts were pumping a few months ago and everyone was buying and selling the fees were so high and transactions so slow. Sometimes hours. It is my understanding and I may not know enough about it but they don’t have a fix to make it faster. Not to mention the energy consumption that blockchain demands. I’ve been in crypto for a while. It is such a gamble and speculative but the rewards can be great.
Just read about Bitcoin, cyptos, and blockchain.....................................and I still have no f'ing idea what they are.

😂
 
Dosent blockchain as a whole have bottleneck/scalability issues? When alts were pumping a few months ago and everyone was buying and selling the fees were so high and transactions so slow. Sometimes hours. It is my understanding and I may not know enough about it but they don’t have a fix to make it faster. Not to mention the energy consumption that blockchain demands. I’ve been in crypto for a while. It is such a gamble and speculative but the rewards can be great.
you are not buying for today's technology and ability, you are buying tomorrow. You are right on the energy consumption but ETH is global and open so it's somewhat different. It's either Lindburgh or Emelia. Pick your risk, your horizon, your view and go with it.
 
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