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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Yeah. I can’t imagine what their growth prospects look like…especially post-pandemic. I mean the risk of Zoom going to zero within a relatively short time isn’t 0%.
Not predicting zero…but I wouldn’t be shocked if the big tech companies (MSFT and Google are already in the space) eat into their mkt share. Plus they don’t seem like they’d ever be an acquisition target since I don’t think their actual technology is much different/better than others. I mean some of their competitors are just one upgrade away from doing damage.
 
Not predicting zero…but I wouldn’t be shocked if the big tech companies (MSFT and Google are already in the space) eat into their mkt share. Plus they don’t seem like they’d ever be an acquisition target since I don’t think their actual technology is much different/better than others. I mean some of their competitors are just one upgrade away from doing damage.
This was talked about on a recent "what are your thoughts" and the opinon there was the MSFT and GOOGL products were terrible. Those guys weren't exactly in love with the ZM product, but they much preferred it to the competition.

I think I've Zoomed once, so I don't really know.
 
This was talked about on a recent "what are your thoughts" and the opinon there was the MSFT and GOOGL products were terrible. Those guys weren't exactly in love with the ZM product, but they much preferred it to the competition.

I think I've Zoomed once, so I don't really know.
We are a MS Teams company, but many of our vendors use ZOOM so I routinely use both. ZOOM is a much better video platform, but Teams is so much more functional (where you can share documents/files and have chats would imbedded images). Teams is a work flow tool.

And of course everything MS seamlessly integrates in other MS stuff.
 
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We are a MS Teams company, but many of our vendors use ZOOM so I routinely use both. ZOOM is a much better video platform, but Teams is so much more functional (where you can share documents/files and have chats would imbedded images). Teams is much more of a work flow tool.

And of course everything MS seamlessly integrates in other MS stuff.
This. And MSFT having a 20% market share with an inferior product is an amazing success. Just wait for the AI upgrade…🤷‍♂️
 
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Plenty of talk on the subject.

But with the bar raise on earnings, NVDA just doesn't look expensive. 32x next years. 50% growth. Well below a 1xPEG. It's down right cheap.
 
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Plenty of talk on the subject.

But with the bar raise on earnings, NVDA just doesn't look expensive. 32x next years. 50% growth. Well below a 1xPEG. It's down right cheap.
NVDA to the MOON! I still believe it will be the first $5T stock (say 3-5 years).
 
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ENPH at $122. It's low after it's initial covid run is about $112, I think, I wouldn't put a limit order in as this thing is very much in falling knife mode.

But 2023 EPS is $5. Next years expected is $6.50. Expected to go up from there.
 
ENPH at $122. It's low after it's initial covid run is about $112, I think, I wouldn't put a limit order in as this thing is very much in falling knife mode.

But 2023 EPS is $5. Next years expected is $6.50. Expected to go up from there.
I think ENPH goes lower due to high lending rates (which is what they have warned for a few quarters). These systems are expensive and customers need to financial purchases. Once the official "we are done" from the Fed, ENPH starts to crank.

Unlike SNOW, this one will likely go sub-$100.
 
I kind of feel it needs to sell off, but the fundamentals suggest it shouldn't, and I figure it won't to any serious degree.
If you look at the chart (Mark Newton did a great video last night for FSI members) it shows NVDA has consolidated quite a bit between earnings. Even the greatest stock in the world needs a breather. Remember, NVDA bottomed at $108 last year. It got well into the $500s in extended. That's a crazy move even if justified.
 
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I think ENPH goes lower due to high lending rates (which is what they have warned for a few quarters). These systems are expensive and customers need to financial purchases. Once the official "we are done" from the Fed, ENPH starts to crank.

Unlike SNOW, this one will likely go sub-$100.
Probably need to hear about cuts, which aren't imminent. But we know the market looks fwd.

I'm keeping an eye on it. Looking for downgrades to those future earnings expectations, without that, I will buy in eventually.
 
Probably need to hear about cuts, which aren't imminent. But we know the market looks fwd.

I'm keeping an eye on it. Looking for downgrades to those future earnings expectations, without that, I will buy in eventually.
ENPH is on my watchlist for a possible LEAP call play. I have a nice RIVN LEAP position and also tracking DIS and PSNY for the future.
 
MULN up another 12%. Though I'm still down 8-9%.

Could sell next weeks $1.50 calls for 7% premium.
 
Harker and Collins - no more interest rate hikes.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday tentatively welcomed a jump in bond market yields as something that could complement the U.S. central bank's work to slow the economy and get inflation back to the 2% target, while also noting they see a good chance that no more interest rate increases will be needed.

The policymakers - Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Boston Fed President Susan Collins - spoke in separate interviews that took place as central bankers and other economic leaders gathered for an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. As they laid out their outlooks for monetary policy and the economy, Harker and Collins also took stock of what a jump in bond yields means for the central bank's mission to slow economic activity to lower inflation.
 
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Harker and Collins - no more interest rate hikes.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday tentatively welcomed a jump in bond market yields as something that could complement the U.S. central bank's work to slow the economy and get inflation back to the 2% target, while also noting they see a good chance that no more interest rate increases will be needed.

The policymakers - Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Boston Fed President Susan Collins - spoke in separate interviews that took place as central bankers and other economic leaders gathered for an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. As they laid out their outlooks for monetary policy and the economy, Harker and Collins also took stock of what a jump in bond yields means for the central bank's mission to slow economic activity to lower inflation.
Collins does not vote, this year. In any case, today she said: "We may need additional increments, and we may be very near a place where we can hold for a substantial amount of time."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-collins-more-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-163004221.html
 
Powell just said the opposite at Jackson Hole.

Just watch the yield on the 10 yr. Having it get close to 4.5 will launch a downward trend in the SP500
Powell just said new rate hikes are "possible", but inflation is coming down nicely and they have to balance the risk/benefit. Pretty much the same ho-hum language for the past few months. Nothing new.

As I mentioned before, using real-time shelter data CPI Headline YoY is 0.5% and CPI Core YoY is 1.5%. And this comes from the San Fran Fed! LOL.

Sticking with the CPI shelter/OER garbage, here is the upcoming math (posted last week):

CPI CORE Update. We know CPI shelter (OER) is falling off the cliff and will do so for the next 12 months. Last month, CPI CORE came in at 0.16%. There are always variations, but since CPI shelter makes up 40% of CORE, it's safe to say that 0.16% is the high water mark for MoM CPI CORE for the next year or so.

So, what does this mean for YoY CPI CORE math? Here it is (assuming 0.16%) moving forward:

CPI CORE YoY
July 2023 = 4.7% (ACTUAL Print)
Aug 2023 = 4.3%
Sept 2023 = 4.0%
Oct 2023 = 3.8%
Nov 2023 = 3.9%
Dec 2023 = 3.9%
Jan 2024 = 3.4%
Feb 2024 = 2.8%
Mar 2024 = 2.5%
Apr 2024 = 2.2%
May 2024 = 1.9%
June 2024 = 1.8%

I would expect the average MoM to be lower than 0.16%, so our path to sub-2% will likely be quicker. We shall see. The issue with YoY math is that it takes 12 months to fully reflect reality. I would suggest that a 3-month average of MoM annualized is the most important metric to track.
 
I know...already "baked-in".....

what is it -- 8 months of "time for Fed to cut rates"?

markets remain resilient - it's impressive... but we ain't gonna see 1% rates again...

 
I know...already "baked-in".....

what is it -- 8 months of "time for Fed to cut rates"?

markets remain resilient - it's impressive... but we ain't gonna see 1% rates again...

We don't need 1% rates. I believe the promised land for the market is the Fed moving back to a neutral position (likely 2.5% to 3.0%). The market can thrive at that level.
 
Powell just said new rate hikes are "possible", but inflation is coming down nicely and they have to balance the risk/benefit. Pretty much the same ho-hum language for the past few months. Nothing new.

As I mentioned before, using real-time shelter data CPI Headline YoY is 0.5% and CPI Core YoY is 1.5%. And this comes from the San Fran Fed! LOL.

Sticking with the CPI shelter/OER garbage, here is the upcoming math (posted last week):

CPI CORE Update. We know CPI shelter (OER) is falling off the cliff and will do so for the next 12 months. Last month, CPI CORE came in at 0.16%. There are always variations, but since CPI shelter makes up 40% of CORE, it's safe to say that 0.16% is the high water mark for MoM CPI CORE for the next year or so.

So, what does this mean for YoY CPI CORE math? Here it is (assuming 0.16%) moving forward:

CPI CORE YoY
July 2023 = 4.7% (ACTUAL Print)
Aug 2023 = 4.3%
Sept 2023 = 4.0%
Oct 2023 = 3.8%
Nov 2023 = 3.9%
Dec 2023 = 3.9%
Jan 2024 = 3.4%
Feb 2024 = 2.8%
Mar 2024 = 2.5%
Apr 2024 = 2.2%
May 2024 = 1.9%
June 2024 = 1.8%

I would expect the average MoM to be lower than 0.16%, so our path to sub-2% will likely be quicker. We shall see. The issue with YoY math is that it takes 12 months to fully reflect reality. I would suggest that a 3-month average of MoM annualized is the most important metric to track.
Powell Signals Fed Will Raise Rates If Needed, Keep Them High
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...fed-will-raise-rates-if-needed-keep-them-high
 
The July PCE report and the August labor report will post next week and will provide the Fed further information on the economy's growth and inflation. Bicker all you want. But the Fed remains openly and consistently committed to achieving a two-percent rate of inflation. Buy Treasuries.
 
The July PCE report and the August labor report will post next week and will provide the Fed further information on the economy's growth and inflation. Bicker all you want. But the Fed remains openly and consistently committed to achieving a two-percent rate of inflation. Buy Treasuries.
CPI Headline YoY = 0.5%
CPI CORE YoY = 1.5%
Based on SF Fed tracking, using an average of multiple real-time data sources for shelter instead of CPI shelter/OER.

Powell made reference to this in his comments. Plan accordingly!
 
Disney is pathetic now. Trying to cram their agenda into movies and it’s pissing people off. Get back to neutral programming and it will be fine again. The new Snow White situation is not helping.
I'm hoping their Snow White chaos is the turning point. Just make good movies and cut the political nonsense. Their bottom line is suffering.
 
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A stock no one seems to make enough of a big about is Broadcom (AVGO). it pays a great divy and it’s gone to the moon over the past 5 years I’ve accumulated it. Not sure why it avoids the headlines other stocks get.
 
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They don’t seem to have problems at the parks.

Just got back and there were good sized crowds at the parks for the end of August.
 
They don’t seem to have problems at the parks.

Just got back and there were good sized crowds at the parks for the end of August.
Park business is booming. They just need to up the investment and increase capacity with new rides and lands. Reevaluate movies and D+ shows, quality over quantity.
 
So many have lost faith in Disney, myself included

Disney should have been toast during and after COVID but all the retail traders piled in while studio shut down, cruise ships were docked, parks closed, and streaming D+ was losing money. The stock never should have gone anywhere but down. Finally folks realize the problems.
 
Park business is booming. They just need to up the investment and increase capacity with new rides and lands. Reevaluate movies and D+ shows, quality over quantity.
Have to think the parks are a drop in the bucket compared to movies, streaming, etc. Them having to dump Barsrool when acquiring Penn shows they are still agenda driven
 
Disney is pathetic now. Trying to cram their agenda into movies and it’s pissing people off. Get back to neutral programming and it will be fine again. The new Snow White situation is not helping.
Agreed, saw an interview with the girl who plays Snow White she belongs in a straitjacket. They have gotten to political with things. They need fresh ideas and materials. Hoping for the best
 
Have to think the parks are a drop in the bucket compared to movies, streaming, etc. Them having to dump Barsrool when acquiring Penn shows they are still agenda driven
I believe movies/streaming generate more revenue, but parks provide more profit.
 
I believe movies/streaming generate more revenue, but parks provide more profit.
I simply do not understand what companies like Disney think they are accomplishing under the guise of “inclusivity”. Snow White will tank compared to what the remake could
have been. Do Star Wars fans really care about Ashoka to the point she needs her own Disney+ series? And look what they’ve done with Marvel. Will they ever actually launch the new season of Daredevil and will the Punisher’s role be marginalized because he’s too violent and angry? If Disney wants to push a certain agenda it does so at the peril of shareholders. Hollywood in general is a disaster. Does Tyler Perry care about “inclusivity” when he’s casting for his movies? Just make movies and content that are entertaining and add to the bottom line. It’s that simple.
 
I simply do not understand what companies like Disney think they are accomplishing under the guise of “inclusivity”. Snow White will tank compared to what the remake could
have been. Do Star Wars fans really care about Ashoka to the point she needs her own Disney+ series? And look what they’ve done with Marvel. Will they ever actually launch the new season of Daredevil and will the Punisher’s role be marginalized because he’s too violent and angry? If Disney wants to push a certain agenda it does so at the peril of shareholders. Hollywood in general is a disaster. Does Tyler Perry care about “inclusivity” when he’s casting for his movies? Just make movies and content that are entertaining and add to the bottom line. It’s that simple.
They live in the Hollywood bubble. This is "normal" to them. Sometimes Real American needs to smack them in the face and serve as a wake up call. Based on recent Iger comments, he may be getting the message. We shall see!
 
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