Powell just said new rate hikes are "possible", but inflation is coming down nicely and they have to balance the risk/benefit. Pretty much the same ho-hum language for the past few months. Nothing new.
As I mentioned before, using real-time shelter data CPI Headline YoY is 0.5% and CPI Core YoY is 1.5%. And this comes from the San Fran Fed! LOL.
Sticking with the CPI shelter/OER garbage, here is the upcoming math (posted last week):
CPI CORE Update. We know CPI shelter (OER) is falling off the cliff and will do so for the next 12 months. Last month, CPI CORE came in at 0.16%. There are always variations, but since CPI shelter makes up 40% of CORE, it's safe to say that 0.16% is the high water mark for MoM CPI CORE for the next year or so.
So, what does this mean for YoY CPI CORE math? Here it is (assuming 0.16%) moving forward:
CPI CORE YoY
July 2023 = 4.7% (ACTUAL Print)
Aug 2023 = 4.3%
Sept 2023 = 4.0%
Oct 2023 = 3.8%
Nov 2023 = 3.9%
Dec 2023 = 3.9%
Jan 2024 = 3.4%
Feb 2024 = 2.8%
Mar 2024 = 2.5%
Apr 2024 = 2.2%
May 2024 = 1.9%
June 2024 = 1.8%
I would expect the average MoM to be lower than 0.16%, so our path to sub-2% will likely be quicker. We shall see. The issue with YoY math is that it takes 12 months to fully reflect reality. I would suggest that a 3-month average of MoM annualized is the most important metric to track.