OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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YoY CPI Shelter/OER forecast from the San Francisco Fed. Dropping quickly and going deflationary as early as Feb 2024 (most likely by April 2024) and staying negative for the rest of 2024. Reminder, CPI Shelter/OER is 30% of headline and 40% of core.
Will we have a deflation scare in H2 2024? Plan accordingly:
Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024. This would represent a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation, with important implications for the behavior of overall inflation.
www.bloomberg.com
Will we have a deflation scare in H2 2024? Plan accordingly:
Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024. This would represent a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation, with important implications for the behavior of overall inflation.
US Shelter Inflation May Go Negative Next Year, Fed Study Finds
US shelter inflation, the biggest component of the consumer price index, is set to slow significantly and may even turn into deflation next year, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
www.bloomberg.com
It’s funny you mention the deflation word. US economy is probably the healthiest major economy on earth right now. China’s economy is on the verge of being a real sh*tshow and they are experiencing deflation.YoY CPI Shelter/OER forecast from the San Francisco Fed. Dropping quickly and going deflationary as early as Feb 2024 (most likely by April 2024) and staying negative for the rest of 2024. Reminder, CPI Shelter/OER is 30% of headline and 40% of core.
Will we have a deflation scare in H2 2024? Plan accordingly:
Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024. This would represent a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation, with important implications for the behavior of overall inflation.
Deflation is much scarier than inflation. The future CPI math is looking rather dangerous. It would be ironic (and sad) if the Fed screws up once again and is forced to rapidly cut interest rates and restart QE to avoid a China situation.
China has an over 20% youth unemployment rate and the US and China do have very different economies. Putin has already outed his failing kleptocracy of a nation mostly due to his awful policies and I’m wondering how desperate Xi is now becoming. If only I could accurately predict what the world will look like a year from now.🤔
In the meantime “AI” is the mantra…
Gov'ment math is always wrong, but it's the garbage the Fed uses and we have to live by. If we used real-time shelter data, CPI would be 0.5% headline and 1.5% core right now. However, it will likely start stabilizing and not go deflationary.
Just watched something on Youtube about China, and apparently they have built all these "ghost cities" where literally no one lives. And there are a bunch of them.
I heard on CNBC (I think), that of China's 1.3 billion population, only 300 million are in urban area's, while 1 billion are still rural. So I guess the idea was continuing growth in manufacturing would pull more people off the farms and into these newly built urban area's. But the building of cities has outpaced the manufacturing growth. If that manufacturing slows, that could pull the rug out from the real estate development, and really pinch their economy.
I thought Xi's economic plan was to push citizens into the cities. However, I have seen some recent stories that contradict this, so perhaps that was a pre-COVID policy?
You have your numbers flipped (or CNBC did) China is 2/3rds urbanized. Tibet is the only province not majority urbanized. And I’ve seen videos on the ghost cities you speak of. I think they can chalk up some of the overbuilding to education/training costs…by keeping builders building things. The central planners got a lot right…but a lot wrong.
Calm down. Watch from the 13:30 mark. CC debt burden is lower today due to record high household net worth:
And relative to GDP it’s lower now then it was precovid.
With a growing population and a growing economy it makes sense that debt will also grow.
And ... the average balance per CC rose to $5,947, the highest in 10 years, according to TransUnion. CNBC reports that not only are balances higher, but more cardholders are also carrying debt from month to month. Of those carrying card balances, 60% have been in debt for at least one year.
The average credit card interest rate today is 24.37% — the highest since LendingTree began tracking rates monthly in 2019.
When student loan repayment resumes this fall, well, there will be more pain.
For the convenience of day to day living. Don't yell at me about the facts. CC debt burden is lower today than most of the past 2 decades. No amount of bearish hysteria will change this.
The facts are cited several times above. No additional posting from you will change them. You can accept the truth or keep yelling at the sky. Your choice. LOL!
Disney isn’t declining because of cancel culture. It’s declining because:
-revenue declines in the cable (ESPN) and streaming (consumers cutting back on subscriptions and content producers are being pressured to be cash flow positive after a boom/bust period).
-DIS eliminated dividends in 2020. Many dividend-based funds had to dump the stock. Dividends may come back end of 23.
-revenue declines in the cable (ESPN) and streaming (consumers cutting back on subscriptions and content producers are being pressured to be cash flow positive after a boom/bust period).
-DIS eliminated dividends in 2020. Many dividend-based funds had to dump the stock. Dividends may come back end of 23.
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For those tracking MMM:
3M (MMM) is close to reaching a $5.5 billion settlement over claims its earplugs did not protect against hearing loss, according to The Wall Street Journal. The market had been anticipating a much higher potential settlement, in the range of $10 billion to $15 billion. - CNBC
3M (MMM) is close to reaching a $5.5 billion settlement over claims its earplugs did not protect against hearing loss, according to The Wall Street Journal. The market had been anticipating a much higher potential settlement, in the range of $10 billion to $15 billion. - CNBC
Consumers are cutting back because the content sucks. ESPN and Disney content both went woke and the decline is directly linked to that decision.
DIS has been hurt by three things:
1. Excessive amount of debt via the Fox Studio acquisition (which was done by Iger 1.0)
2. Weak performance at the box office, most of their recent movies have bombed (you can blame this on wokeness or poor quality or whatever, lots to point to on this).
3. As you pointed out, legacy cable issues
I do believe the stock will begin a turnaround by the end of the year. So much bad news is baked in that even a glimmer of hope would make a positive impact.
Disney content - movies and streaming - has been very weak for the past 2 years. Marvel has become unwatchable.
People don’t “save up” for anything anymore and younger generations don’t care about prices. $8 for a coffee. $15 for a sandwich. I honestly think stores can almost charge whatever they want and most people will pay without thinking about it. I have friends buying new cars paying way over MSRP instead of shopping around. People are lazy when it comes to managing money or using a budget.
Over $7B in revenue with a $13B market cap. What am I missing? Strong double beat a few weeks ago but the stock gave back a lot of recent gains.
Im thinking the run up has been so extreme that some are taking profits….even though the fundies suggest it has much more upside.
For those looking for new ideas, small caps:
Small-cap stocks with potential
Small-cap stocks with potential
Should you invest in small-cap stocks? |Fidelity
Small-cap stocks have lagged larger companies for years, but could finally be due for a winning streak.
www.fidelity.com
AVUVFor those looking for new ideas, small caps:
Small-cap stocks with potential
Should you invest in small-cap stocks? |Fidelity
Small-cap stocks have lagged larger companies for years, but could finally be due for a winning streak.www.fidelity.com
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/avuv/quote
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5-Star Silver Fund - beating the S&P 600 which is the small cap value benchmark I normally use:
A stellar choice for small-value exposure.
Summary
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