OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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It's only 7% because it is only 7%. It doesn't filter through most CPI categories at all and others very little. Energy is more psychological inflation than real inflation. People love to get scared and whine about "high" gas prices, but for the vast majority of people it's not a big deal.
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Plan accordingly. You need to take the time to educate yourself on the math:
CPI CORE Update. We know CPI shelter (OER) is falling off the cliff and will do so for the next 12 months. Last month, CPI CORE came in at 0.16%. There are always variations, but since CPI shelter makes up 40% of CORE, it's safe to say that 0.16% is the high water mark for MoM CPI CORE for the next year or so.
So, what does this mean for YoY CPI CORE math? Here it is (assuming 0.16%) moving forward:
CPI CORE YoY
July 2023 = 4.7% (ACTUAL Print)
Aug 2023 = 4.3%
Sept 2023 = 4.0%
Oct 2023 = 3.8%
Nov 2023 = 3.9%
Dec 2023 = 3.9%
Jan 2024 = 3.4%
Feb 2024 = 2.8%
Mar 2024 = 2.5%
Apr 2024 = 2.2%
May 2024 = 1.9%
June 2024 = 1.8%
I would expect the average MoM to be lower than 0.16%, so our path to sub-2% will likely be quicker. We shall see. The issue with YoY math is that it takes 12 months to fully reflect reality. I would suggest that a 3-month average of MoM annualized is the most important metric to track.
You need to read, think, and then post. Try to type out a coherent sentence about the post you are replying to. Thanks!
C'mon, guys. Keep it civil. Don't make it personal. T2K is our resident "forever optimist" re: the economy and markets, the RutgersAl of "Stock and Investment Talk," if you will. No harm in that. Entertaining and, heck, sometimes even informative and insightful. Wink wink. It's all harmless. As long as you do your own homework and make your own informed investment decisions, based on your own circumstances and needs.
When the market goes up 75-80% of the time, why not always be optimistic? It's all statistics and probabilities. LOL!
Yup. Got the warning the other day. Kind of lame as I typically comb through my holdings and potential buys on the weekend.
I normally do research via my Fidelity account, but E-Trade has those in-depth Morgan Stanley reports on many companies. Was looking for one on DIS. Guess I have to wait! LOL.
Great data, life is good:
www.cnbc.com
Fed Governor Waller agrees the central bank can 'proceed carefully' on interest rates
Waller told CNBC on Tuesday that the recent round of strong economic data will buy the central bank some time.
Josh Brown buys into recently mentioned ZOOM. Sounded like a trade more then a long term investment. Noted it's profitability, inexpensive P/E, and projected earnings growth(though that is not street consensus, as they have earnings as flat, but strong growth in free cash flow, which may be what he was talking about).
Interesting. I'm halfway through tonight's episode. ZOOM has a great product, but will there be enough growth to excite people?
From TL and FS Insights. Buy XLI after PMI hits 47 or below, especially if this week's data points to a bottom. XLI is up 12 months later on average 22% with a 95% positive success rate (since 1950). Not sure what the best play is.....XLI, DUSL, or a few of the big industrial stocks. Something to think about!
He spoke about it on half time, don't think he mentions it on the Compound.
As I mention the street consensus is not expecting much growth, but I'd bet Woods has a different opinion then most. Brown alludes to a more mature business with a broader product line then Zoom of a couple years ago, he too maybe thinking the street is underselling the company.
I do think ZOOM gets unfairly dinged for being a "Cathie Wood" stock. I'll check it out. In the meanwhile, I keep watching DIS is see if a bottom is coming! LOL.
Deep dive story on DIS and the Iger saga:
www.cnbc.com
Disney's wildest ride: Iger, Chapek and the making of an epic succession mess
Here's the inside story of the executive chaos at Disney over the past few years — and how it could shape the fate of the iconic entertainment company.
Why do I have the feeling C3.ai is going to s the bed with their earnings later today? Expectations for AI companies are sky high.
C3.ai — The artificial intelligence software company rose 1.5% ahead of its earnings due after the close Wednesday. Analysts expect an adjusted loss of 12 cents per share on $73.8 million in revenue in the second quarter, and an adjusted loss of 4 cents per share on $78 million in revenue in the third.
C3.ai — The artificial intelligence software company rose 1.5% ahead of its earnings due after the close Wednesday. Analysts expect an adjusted loss of 12 cents per share on $73.8 million in revenue in the second quarter, and an adjusted loss of 4 cents per share on $78 million in revenue in the third.
I also want to note my three contributions to this forum have been BB (pre meme wave rocketship), GILD (lackluster) and AUR (new rocketship)
Very interesting alternate revenue stream…
www.cnbc.com
Texas paid bitcoin miner Riot $31.7 million to shut down during heat wave in August
Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms raked in $31.7 million in energy credits from Texas power grid operator ERCOT in August.
Very interesting, wonder if other miners will try to get in on this action.Very interesting alternate revenue stream…
Texas paid bitcoin miner Riot $31.7 million to shut down during heat wave in August
Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms raked in $31.7 million in energy credits from Texas power grid operator ERCOT in August.
Up about 15% since you mentioned it. Nice move thus far. Looks like its in a bit of a range, but setting 52 week highs. See if it breaks out.
And so did the puts I bought yesterday at 3:45pm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I guess we will see in 15 mins how much they are up. Probably 50-75%?
Just sold to close. Ended up at +71%. Oct 20 puts at $30 strike. Bought for $3.01, dumped at $5.12! I was going back and forth with the Sept vs Oct puts, but went with Oct to lower the risk if I was wrong. The Sept puts are up over 100%, but if I was wrong, I would have lost much more.
As for my VFS puts, those are confusing. I bought when VFS was in the 50s and now it is 22'ish. That's about 60% decline. However, my Oct puts are only up 10-15%. WTF? The puts are dated Oct 20, so I don't think time decay should be that bad (which really cranks up in the final month). I will likely sell today and reassess. Any ideas? All the VFS puts regardless of strike price seem to be stuck in the mud.
I wonder if I bought them too early (i.e., a few days after being released). Perhaps the price needed to settle for a few more days or something.
Those early prices reflect the volatility in the stock at that time. Even though the stock has come way down, the volatility has as well.
I'm not familiar enough to know the precise relation, but as we see here, it's pretty extreme.
It's why that one guy on the Compound was talking about buy long term calls, and why I haven't been selling calls of late. Volatility is so low that the premiums are super cheap. Worth buying as a lottery ticket, not really worth selling as an income producer.
ENPH went below $120 for a bit this morning, but then got back above it. I again say it looks pretty cheap judging by fwd estimates, but it continues to be a falling knife. No sign of a bottom.
Meanwhile
UNH bouncing back today after a bad month. Not great on a 12 month either but long term looks great, and if you put a 20x fwd multiple on this it's a $700 stock in 2025. ie 40% upside.
Meanwhile
UNH bouncing back today after a bad month. Not great on a 12 month either but long term looks great, and if you put a 20x fwd multiple on this it's a $700 stock in 2025. ie 40% upside.
I really like ENPH and believe it will be a big long-term winner. I have it on my watchlist with RIVN, SNOW, DIS, and a few others. Just gotta figure out the right time to buy and whether LEAP calls or shares (probably just shares). I remember reading that high interest rates really hurts ENPH since their systems are normally financed by customers. Feels like rates are at or super close to the peak.
You can check implied volatility before opening positions.
TSLY | YieldMax TSLA Option Income ETF - Elevate Shares
The YieldMax™ TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF (TSLY) is an actively managed fund that seeks to generate monthly income by selling/writing call options on
www.elevateshares.com
This ETF looks interesting.
