OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Inflation Calculator with U.S. CPI Data
Calculates the equivalent value of the U.S. dollar in any month from 1913 to 2023. Calculations are based on the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for all urban consumers in the U.S..
Result
$791.30 in Aug. 2023 equals $100 of buying power in 1970 (Average).The total inflation rate from 1970 (Average) to Aug. 2023 is 691.30%. The average inflation rate is 3.97% per year.
The CPI of 1970 (Average) is 38.8 and the CPI of Aug. 2023 is 307.026.
Inflation Calculator
Free inflation calculator that runs on U.S. CPI data or a custom inflation rate. Also, find the historical U.S. inflation data and learn more about inflation.
www.calculator.net
Worried about the dollar losing value? MSFT. Worried about missing out on monetization of AI? MSFT.
Not financial advice. Just food for thought.
Not financial advice. Just food for thought.
Thanks for the investment guidance this crew has provided in the past for my colleague at work. I have another request. He is looking at doing some kind of investment with JP Morgan (a conservative Money Market account I believe) that COULD lead to just over 5% interest but has full liquidity, but no guaranteed rate of a return of course. It would be a one year investment. What do people think about JP Morgan in general? With the federal budget still in flux, how are people feeling about investments like this? CDs of course have a guaranteed rate of return, but as we know are not liquid. Any advice to this vague request would be helpful. He is mostly concerned about the security of his money and does not want to do anything risky but also maintain liquidity. Thanks.
Sounds like you’re asking about a money market fund, not a money market account.
Finally bought ENPH in my fun account and Roth IRAs around $121, missed yesterday's dip. D'oh!
Not a MMF, but have a look at SGOV, a short-term 0-3-month Invesco US Treasuries ETF currently a 5.34% SEC yield and a very low expense at just 0.070%. It's a pretty popular choice of late. He can purchase shares of SGOV via a JPM brokerage account.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/sgov/quote
Good alternative for sure. Available on Robinhood for the HODLers out there.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
They are trying to talk tough, but their forecasts point to a soft landing and cuts starting soon. Look for significant cuts starting in early 2024 as CPI shelter pulls down CPI core to below 2%.
Watch the Fed’s dot-plot medians, warns LPL’s chief economist
The central bank signaled it would raise rates one more time this year before wrapping its policy tightening campaign, but investors should be aware of a key issue with the Fed’s dot-plot projection.
“One glaring caveat: Dot plot medians tend to overestimate policy rates—sometimes by a wide margin,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
“The most egregious example was in 2015 when the Committee expected interest rates in 2017 to be above 3.50%, when in actuality they were closer to 0.50% that year,” he added.
-Darla Mercado, Jeff Cox
I think you're now more realistic regarding rates and rate cuts since you had predicted rate cuts to occur this calendar year.
The economy held up better than expected. Pretty much gave the Fed the middle finger, which is great for the nation and markets. The only thing holding us back is that piece of garbage CPI OER's arbitrary math, but even that will start working for us soon.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Unions and oil are the two biggest issues now imo. Structurally, the deficits we are running are a huge issue. QT not getting the play it should either.
I dont buy a soft landing. When some of this debt rolls over and is refi’d at these rates, things will break
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Multi family permits down nearly 42% yoy. Cant dismiss the impact that will have on the employment picture imo.
2026 will have gangbusters rent growth due to increasing demand and very little new supply set to come online at that time.
Also, im always skeptical of what the fed says. In December of 2021 inflation was transitory and their dot plots had a median 2022 fed funds below 1%.
I do believe they wont pivot til employment breaks and initial claims are above 300K
Just follow employment numbers. That’s driving the bus. Anything sub 5% = elevated rates
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Unions are not an issue. They only represent 6% of the private sector. Sucks for Big auto, but plenty of other cars to buy.
Fed just forecasted rate cuts to start with unemployment at 4.1% (compared to 3.8% now). They know they can't break the employment market due to the worker shortage via COVID.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Right but if its long lasting it’ll feed through to cpi which puts upward pressure on inflation
In the current environment, they won’t cut unless it hits 5%. If GDP and inflation both tank, they’ll act sooner.
If this one ended, you’d think the actors might not be too far behind it.
www.cnbc.com
Hollywood studios, writers near agreement to end strike, hope to finalize deal Thursday, sources say
While optimistic, the people noted, however, that if a deal is not reached the strike could last through the end of the year.
Shocked. But hey, if you’re someone who got on and got off quick more power to you.
markets.businessinsider.com
Remember when NFTs sold for millions of dollars? 95% of the digital collectibles are now probably worthless.
NFTs had a huge bull run two years ago, with billions of dollars a month in trading volume, but now most have crashed to zero, a study found.
markets.businessinsider.com
Haven't paid attention to the details, but recently saw articles about striking writers not being able to pay rent and being evicted.If this one ended, you’d think the actors might not be too far behind it.
Hollywood studios, writers near agreement to end strike, hope to finalize deal Thursday, sources say
While optimistic, the people noted, however, that if a deal is not reached the strike could last through the end of the year.
ARM just hovering above its IPO price. I mentioned that these "popular" IPOs, somewhat often come back down to their IPO price or below sooner or later. Well that didn't take long haha. I didn't expect it this fast.
No logical reason for ARM to have a higher valuation than NVDA. It has much slower growth and focused on cell phones. Closer to AMD, not NVDA or MRVL.
For @T2Kplus20
Not that I agree with him, completely at least(seems very off as to when the yield curve first inverted) but I do value different view points.
Not that I agree with him, completely at least(seems very off as to when the yield curve first inverted) but I do value different view points.
What's not to agree with? The data is the data (it's all public) and inflation is currently well under 2%. The Fed is screwing the pooch and risking an unnecessary recession.
This is the professor that wrote the original Inverted Yield Curve paper. Seems like a good idea to listen to him. Right?
Like I said he's off as to when the yield curve first inverted. He said 13 months would be Dec or Jan. But the curve inverted in July of last year. So we are already at 14 months. How is he so off on this basic point?
I'm also not sure what shelter metrics he is using. If it's mom it's only a part of the story.
WTI back at $90 is clear indicator that inflation has not been fully stamped out.
As few things:
1. No idea regarding the inversion timeline. Maybe he starts the clock when it inverts at a certain level?
2. Fed has no control on oil prices, which is why the Fed pushed for the creation of Core metrics.
3. The professor is using YoY data, but based on real-time sources like Case Shiller, Zillow, Redfin, and Apartments.
Check this out. See the problem with CPI shelter? LOL! Let me ask.....why use something that lags about 12 months to make forward looking policy decisions? What's the logic in that? The Professor is spot-on with his criticism of the Fed. The Fed hasn't learned, they are literally making the same mistake now that they did in 2021 when they missed all the high inflation (using outdated, painfully lagged data).
I guess there are lots of different resources from which to get data, this one says rent's are up 3.3% yoy.As few things:
1. No idea regarding the inversion timeline. Maybe he starts the clock when it inverts at a certain level?
2. Fed has no control on oil prices, which is why the Fed pushed for the creation of Core metrics.
3. The professor is using YoY data, but based on real-time sources like Case Shiller, Zillow, Redfin, and Apartments.
Check this out. See the problem with CPI shelter? LOL! Let me ask.....why use something that lags about 12 months to make forward looking policy decisions? What's the logic in that? The Professor is spot-on with his criticism of the Fed. The Fed hasn't learned, they are literally making the same mistake now that they did in 2021 when they missed all the high inflation (using outdated, painfully lagged data).
Rental Market Trends in the U.S. — Rent Growth Finally Slows - NerdWallet
As of Aug. 2023, rents in the U.S. are rising at a slower pace than in the previous year.
September 2024 Rent Report: Sun Belt Sees Big Declines
The national rental market held steady again in September, with median asking rents rising just 0.6% year over year. Learn everything else you need to know in our monthly report.
www.rent.com
This one says rent's were down yoy but have begun to go up again and that rate of increase has increased mom July into August..
This says YoY rent is -0.06%. Still deflationary. As per the professor, even if you say rent is at 2% YoY, CPI headline drops to 1.8% (versus 3.7% with CPI OER). Every data source for rent makes CPI headline 2% or lower, except the garbage they use. LOL!September 2024 Rent Report: Sun Belt Sees Big Declines
The national rental market held steady again in September, with median asking rents rising just 0.6% year over year. Learn everything else you need to know in our monthly report.
This one says rent's were down yoy but have begun to go up again and that rate of increase has increased mom July into August..
Yes down yoy, but rising mom, and just a tick below all time highs.
Which I acknowledge still equates to deflationary yoy, but to me it speaks to the complexity of the situation. And if the Fed were to cut now (or if they had cut months ago) what would that do to the economy and as an extension rents?
We do know that even with rates where they are now, the economy continues to hang in.
