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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

RUTGERS95 said:
ha, I wouldn't bet on that sport, I've forgotten more about RE and MBS than you will ever know and the bonuses and deferred comp to prove such. You need to come off your self made pedestal and head back to the little kids table so the adults can manage the room

if you're feeling insecure about money as your post suggests, I'd suggest a 2nd job bartending or such, see lots of RE guys doing that so it must be popular
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Lol. I am 100% certain at age 31 I have a higher net worth than you did (you can even adjust for inflation). And im 99% certain even at 31 right now I have a higher net worth than you. Put up PFS and lets wager.

People who work in your field are pretty useless. You cant even outperform standard index funds that retards put together

All ive gathered from you is no one knows anything except for you of course. Now relax and go fetch coffee for boss man
 
RUDead said:
Some good info in this article. East coast holding up much better than the west coast.

fortune.com

The U.S. housing market heads into 2023 still in correction mode—these 2 charts show what's happening to home prices

The U.S. home price correction is sharper—and more widespread—than previously thought.
fortune.com fortune.com
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Speaking of which, the home across the street (same model as ours) just sold for a record amount in our neighborhood. It was on the market for one weekend including one open house afternoon. The place was a zoo.
 
I think the market will get worse. I was at a mega real estate expo in AC last week and had more than one realtor stop at our booth and ask about property management. They want to start doing that as a way to make some money while sales slow.

My entire brokerage sales and purchases are ice cold.

Also have had 2 different construction crews reach out to me about work and getting paid quicker. Hasn't happened in about 2 years.

One of my listings the seller is begging me to buy the investment property but I don't really want to. If I listed this in January I would have sold it for 700k, he is getting offers 600, 625k right now .

Put down your charts boys and girls and pay attention to information like that. That tells you more than charts.
 
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Sales and rents are absolutely through the roof in the area encompassing North Dover Toms River through the east side and over the bridge east and west (where we are looking of course). There have been no signs of a downward trend here.
 
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just remember, ' all politics are local' and it's application to many things

you're a fool to invest in real estate right now as this iceberg is getting set to tip
 
I’m the regional sales director for a home builder in 5 states across the mid Atlantic (pa, de, md, nj, and va). The market has absolutely slowed the last few months. In fairness, it had to as rates were simply pricing people out of the market, however the shortage of houses has not gone down making this very different than 2008. Millennial buyers are eager but unfortunately in the last year the DTI’s on their credit has been thrown completely out of whack as a result of rising rates. Compound the fact that rent is rising everywhere not to mention still a tremendous amount of displaced families as a result of the hurricane down south, there’s a potential housing mess on our hands.

Essentially the Fed is going to come up with new programs regarding housing and primary mortgages, though I wouldn’t expect much until the spring.

The one thing still saving the market is the lack of inventory. Too many people are locked in at sub 4 rates and are holding off on potential moves as a result. Basically we’re treading water for the next few months and anticipate a positive turn in the market in the spring
 
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yessir321 said:
Not true at all regarding real estate. It’s not the prices that are scaring people, it’s the rates. If an investor can pay cash for a property, it’s an EXCELLENT time to buy
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The rates are not terrible . They are in the 5’s now I see. I mean not as good as last year but not a killer
 
Plum Street said:
The rates are not terrible . They are in the 5’s now I see. I mean not as good as last year but not a killer
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They’ve come down some the last month which is encouraging. In October they were outrageous. 5’s still are tough when people were getting 2.79% literally last year, but it’s definitely starting to turn.

We’re past the worst of it and that is clear in the sales reports, so far this month up 22% company wide from last month at this time.

Do I see it going back to the Covid market when people were getting 5 offers over asking price in their first weekend? No I don’t, but at some point people get tired of paying rent and want the house, rn there’s a housing shortage.

Honestly it’s a HELL of a time to get into real estate development
 
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No its both; price and rates

Once rates rise to a point where price matters, the next step is down.

Inventory, or lack thereof, is being supported by employment but that is set to change
 
RUTGERS95 said:
No its both; price and rates

Once rates rise to a point where price matters, the next step is down.

Inventory, or lack thereof, is being supported by employment but that is set to change
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Price is dictated by materials and land cost, the market is dictated by new construction. Rates already have started to come down and will continue to…

I understand this goes against the Fox News monologue, but I can assure you from first hand experience on the development side of this business that prices are not going to tank like 08’… not even close
 
yessir321 said:
Price is dictated by materials and land cost, the market is dictated by new construction. Rates already have started to come down and will continue to…

I understand this goes against the Fox News monologue, but I can assure you from first hand experience on the development side of this business that prices are not going to tank like 08’… not even close
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What I said is right. Not sure what fox has to do with this unless you're small minded

I also didn't bring up 08 like prices but you did
 
Joey Bags said:
The amount of demand on the sidelines is insane. The moment rates dip below 5% everything is going back to the 2020-2022 feeding frenzy
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One thing worth of more discussion is the impact investment funds have had and will continue to have on the market. How much of the fuel for demand was for investment properties? I would suspect it is significant, and will now shift.

They have been buying RE like crazy in recent years. Now, funds like Blackrock and Starwood are under so much pressure they are refusing to allow investors to withdraw. At a minimum, it seems they won't be buying more. If these are two prominent funds, they may be representative of many others.

Certainly there must be some scenario where there is some unplanned selling by funds to cover withdrawals.
 
yessir321 said:
Compound the fact that rent is rising everywhere not to mention still a tremendous amount of displaced families as a result of the hurricane down south, there’s a potential housing mess on our hands.
Click to expand...

Is rent still rising? According to today's news it is falling nationally now (from the increased level reached in 2022).
 
Wolv RU said:
One thing worth of more discussion is the impact investment funds have had and will continue to have on the market. How much of the fuel for demand was for investment properties? I would suspect it is significant, and will now shift.

They have been buying RE like crazy in recent years. Now, funds like Blackrock and Starwood are under so much pressure they are refusing to allow investors to withdraw. At a minimum, it seems they won't be buying more. If these are two prominent funds, they may be representative of many others.

Certainly there must be some scenario where there is some unplanned selling by funds to cover withdrawals.
Click to expand...

On the commercial side, i think these private REIT funds like Blackrock and Starwood are going to have a big negative impact. They were a liquidity mismatch from day 1. 5% redemptions per qtr sounds great until the commercial RE has a downturn. They also have REALLY high fees and valuation issues. I think we are at the beginning stages with that problem.

On the residential side, not only have investment funds been big buyers in recent years but Airbnb (and others like it) could be causing an issue. While the numbers of customers using those services seems to be solid the amount of supply is exploding in some areas, especially out west. This is going to drive down the rental price as well as the occupancy rates for the airbnb owners.

A lot of new buyers in those investment properties are going to be getting a lot less rental income than they expected. They could become forced sellers if the problem persists.
 
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Wolv RU said:
Is rent still rising? According to today's news it is falling nationally now (from the increased level reached in 2022).
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It’s still rising on the east coast. In the mid Atlantic region rents are increasing a median of $107 per month next year. It’s worse when you get down to the Carolina’s and Tennessee…. West coast is a different story, LOT’S of people are trying to move out of the west coast, really just waiting for rates to dip below 5.

Once we get below 5% for 30’s, I expect the ‘dam to break’ if you will
 
RUDead said:
On the commercial side, i think these private REIT funds like Blackrock and Starwood are going to have a big negative impact. They were a liquidity mismatch from day 1. 5% redemptions per qtr sounds great until the commercial RE has a downturn. They also have REALLY high fees and valuation issues. I think we are at the beginning stages with that problem.

On the residential side, not only have investment funds been big buyers in recent years but Airbnb (and others like it) could be causing an issue. While the numbers of customers using those services seems to be solid the amount of supply is exploding in some areas, especially out west. This is going to drive down the rental price as well as the occupancy rates for the airbnb owners.

A lot of new buyers in those investment properties are going to be getting a lot less rental income than they expected. They could become forced sellers if the problem persists.
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The proliferation of airbnbs in the Sedona, AZ area has been crazy. In the neighborhood where we have a home, it seems like every third home on our block is an airbnb. Rents were crazy at the peak-$4-6K to rent a 3 BR home for a week. Will be interesting to see if that holds up.
 
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RUTGERS95 said:
What I said is right. Not sure what fox has to do with this unless you're small minded

I also didn't bring up 08 like prices but you did
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What you said is categorically false but you simply won’t accept that and like many others will hold onto your argument even when it becomes clear you are wrong. Than once it turns like most posters will just stop commenting on the subject once you can no longer argue your point.

Hate to break this to you but the market is turning (we are now up 30% month over month). People are buying! I’ve seen your posts in the past, lord knows you want things to continue to fail for the next 2 years so you can complain enough to try to get trump re-elected (which is 100% your play here though I doubt you have the balls to admit it). Sorry to tell you though, that isn’t happening. The market is not remaining stagnant for 2 more years, you aren’t going to be able to use this as political fodder which is your entire goal..

Now go ahead and write whatever response about how that’s not where you were going or whatever other bs you want to spew on a subject you know nothing about….
 
RUDead said:
On the commercial side, i think these private REIT funds like Blackrock and Starwood are going to have a big negative impact. They were a liquidity mismatch from day 1. 5% redemptions per qtr sounds great until the commercial RE has a downturn. They also have REALLY high fees and valuation issues. I think we are at the beginning stages with that problem.

On the residential side, not only have investment funds been big buyers in recent years but Airbnb (and others like it) could be causing an issue. While the numbers of customers using those services seems to be solid the amount of supply is exploding in some areas, especially out west. This is going to drive down the rental price as well as the occupancy rates for the airbnb owners.

A lot of new buyers in those investment properties are going to be getting a lot less rental income than they expected. They could become forced sellers if the problem persists.
Click to expand...
Oh Airbnb is on the verge of blowing up (negatively). High cleaning fees and 1 bad review ruins a profile, it’s already old news.

Unless a property is truly ‘unique’, Airbnb investments are shockingly bad investments right now. Second property rates are astronomical right now
 
yessir321 said:
Oh Airbnb is on the verge of blowing up (negatively). High cleaning fees and 1 bad review ruins a profile, it’s already old news.

Unless a property is truly ‘unique’, Airbnb investments are shockingly bad investments right now. Second property rates are astronomical right now
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Won't this mean there is less demand going forward than there was in 2020 or 2021 because people/investors who might have bought properties to have as rentals will not be doing so in as large of numbers? If there's a sell off, that might mean there's more supply than would be natural just given normal owner-to-owner sales.

It seems to me that generally while investment properties were adding a lot of fuel to demand/prices over the past 2-3 years, this will not be happening going forward, and this segment could be a drag, or even a significant drag, going forward.

I think looking purely at numbers and comparing to previous years / cycles can miss aspects like this that are different this time than they were in previous cycles.
 
Wolv RU said:
Won't this mean there is less demand going forward than there was in 2020 or 2021 because people/investors who might have bought properties to have as rentals will not be doing so in as large of numbers? If there's a sell off, that might mean there's more supply than would be natural just given normal owner-to-owner sales.

It seems to me that generally while investment properties were adding a lot of fuel to demand/prices over the past 2-3 years, this will not be happening going forward, and this segment could be a drag, or even a significant drag, going forward.

I think looking purely at numbers and comparing to previous years / cycles can miss aspects like this that are different this time than they were in previous cycles.
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Oh I definitely see investment properties going down, though not at the shore surprisingly enough. The market has been pretty hot the last 2 weeks for us. Company wide we already have more sales this month than all of November. Rates were just brutal in October and people were super hesitant. They’re starting to peak back around now that rates came back down to the 5’s.

Truth be told, millennials make up the majority of the workforce, and they want to buy houses in the suburbs
 
yessir321 said:
Oh I definitely see investment properties going down, though not at the shore surprisingly enough. The market has been pretty hot the last 2 weeks for us. Company wide we already have more sales this month than all of November. Rates were just brutal in October and people were super hesitant. They’re starting to peak back around now that rates came back down to the 5’s.

Truth be told, millennials make up the majority of the workforce, and they want to buy houses in the suburbs
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it's early in the cycle, give it time
 
RUTGERS95 said:
it's early in the cycle, give it time
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Nah, we don’t look backwards. I’m sorry that the economy is not going to remain in recession for the next 2 years so your guy can get elected, hate to break it to you… we’re past the worst of it
 
The TKR jinx wins again. The second the OP posted this thread the housing market started tanking! Grammatically his thread title may seem correct but the reality of that is because the bubble has burst to historic numbers. TKR jinx power is unbeatable 🤣🤣
 
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