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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

What, so f**k ‘‘em if inflation makes it even harder for them, as long as you are doing good?
Who said that

I did post earlier which no one answered

Does higher wage growth offset higher inflation as compared to stagnant wages and low inflation

So while the last 10 years saw low inflation it also saw flat wage growth is that really any economically easier for a family than higher inflation but also higher wage growth


I will repeat I do not see current conditions any worse than 4 or 5 other periods
I think some of this is the mental aspect of a stock market drop but most people have money in the market through retirement vehicles that they will not touch for years.
 
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Who said that

I did post earlier which no one answered

Does higher wage growth offset higher inflation as compared to stagnant wages and low inflation

So while the last 10 years saw low inflation it also saw flat wage growth is that really any economically easier for a family than higher inflation but also higher wage growth


I will repeat I do not see current conditions any worse than 4 or 5 other periods
I think some of this is the mental aspect of a stock market drop but most people have money in the market through retirement vehicles that they will not touch for years.
I will repeat myself. Wage growth is not keeping up with what inflation actually is for most people (and don’t quote the government’s official inflation number to me, if we measured inflation the same way we did during the Carter years it was mid teens by the summer).

Graphs and averages don’t tell the story and smooth out the negativel impacts, when I recent years they have been very stratified.

The same Covid lockdowns that ruined the lives of small business owners caused no financial pain to teachers, government workers, people working for large corporations, Inflation that is a nuisance to college educated people with white collar jobs is really hurting a lot of people.
 
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In NJ the rates haven’t affected prices at all in desirable areas. At most maybe 5-10k price drops which is trivial when rates have gone up 5% since then.
 
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If I am understanding what I am reading correctly, refining is even more of a problem because we now don’t have the capacity to handle much of an increase in production.

When the people in charge have made it impossible to build a new refinery, and constantly express their desire to eliminate the need for such refining in the next decade or so, it is unsurprising that the industry is hesitant to make big investments in upgrading or maintaining existing refineries when that spending will take years to pay itself off.

We are in deep shit if something causes any significant percentage of current refining capacity to go offline.
Don’t the Saudis own the largest refinery in the US?
 
In NJ the rates haven’t affected prices at all in desirable areas. At most maybe 5-10k price drops which is trivial when rates have gone up 5% since then.
That's still the refugees coming in from NY. If things keep going the way they are it will continue until there is nobody left that can afford to move.
 
Why are things not going well? The job market seems strong, wage growth is strong and while inflation is high is it any worse than low inflation with no wage growth?

I read that wage growth is over 7% obviously that is offset by higher inflation but if inflation was 3% and wage growth 1% is there a meaningful difference for most people?
Are you in denial. Inflation is over 8%. Look I'm well off and can sustain high inflation and I already own 3 properties but those that deny the huge negative strain on less fortunate people and those that want to buy their first home are living in a bubble. No , things are not going well for the majority of Americans and I guess those of us that are lucky to have healthy 401k s or investment accounts are hap py that our accounts are literally down hundreds of thousands are happy campers. None of this is defenseable.
 
Are you in denial. Inflation is over 8%. Look I'm well off and can sustain high inflation and I already own 3 properties but those that deny the huge negative strain on less fortunate people and those that want to buy their first home are living in a bubble. No , things are not going well for the majority of Americans and I guess those of us that are lucky to have healthy 401k s or investment accounts are hap py that our accounts are literally down hundreds of thousands are happy campers. None of this is defenseable.
He is right. Wage is also a bigger number than expenses. That’s why we have inflation. Job market needs to cool for inflation to decrease.
 
Are you in denial. Inflation is over 8%. Look I'm well off and can sustain high inflation and I already own 3 properties but those that deny the huge negative strain on less fortunate people and those that want to buy their first home are living in a bubble. No , things are not going well for the majority of Americans and I guess those of us that are lucky to have healthy 401k s or investment accounts are hap py that our accounts are literally down hundreds of thousands are happy campers. None of this is defenseable.
If inflation is 8% and wage growth is 7.5% is that worse than inflation at 2% and zero wage growth?

Are you arguing that less fortunate people have not struggled prior? There has always been a strain on lower income families. How about we provide more services and healthcare to them with me and you paying higher taxes to alleviate that strain

Is this the first time you saw the stock market drop?
 
If inflation is 8% and wage growth is 7.5% is that worse than inflation at 2% and zero wage growth?

Are you arguing that less fortunate people have not struggled prior? There has always been a strain on lower income families. How about we provide more services and healthcare to them with me and you paying higher taxes to alleviate that strain

Is this the first time you saw the stock market drop?
Good points. People are pointing to sky high YoY metrics and don't realize two important things. First, wage growth has been high as well, so real YoY inflation is only 3%'ish. Not that big of a deal. Second, MoM inflation (which is a much better real-time indicator) has been essentially flat for 3 months. Inflation was crazy in 2021 and early 2022, but has gone down substantially since then.
 
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I posted in a different thread that I and all of my friends and family are doing very well so I have not seen this terrible situation you feel is effecting everyone

The food inflation is noticeable but my income increased at a level that dwarves that increase
Happy for you buddy. Hope things continue that way.
 
In NJ the rates haven’t affected prices at all in desirable areas. At most maybe 5-10k price drops which is trivial when rates have gone up 5% since then.
In Basking Ridge I am seeing prices go for 100-110% of list price still. Bottom line in the wealthy towns those people have money and cash buyers or people with a very large down payment are still showing up. In the lower income towns I am seeing price reductions and a soft market.
 
Good points. People are pointing to sky high YoY metrics and don't realize two important things. First, wage growth has been high as well, so real YoY inflation is only 3%'ish. Not that big of a deal. Second, MoM inflation (which is a much better real-time indicator) has been essentially flat for 3 months. Inflation was crazy in 2021 and early 2022, but has gone down substantially since then.
Real wage growth has been piss poor the last 2 years and inflation is much higher than actually reported. Inflation going from 30% to 25% is not progress.
 
Was it really faster than under Volker?
You’re right. In 1980 they moved 15 to 20. This year they will move 0 to 4.5. So one other time in history. I would argue 0 to 4.5 is more painful and a larger change particularly because when at 0, multiples across asset classes are higher leading to larger declines.
 
The majority of people move within 15 miles of where they grew up. It’s tough to completely uproot from family.
I am one of 6 and you would be batting .000 on that one. Of my 15 nieces and nephews, it would be 1 of 15.
 
I ended up moving 40 miles from my family and while I love where I am I did miss the ease to just stop by my parents or siblings to just have a cup of coffee and talk.

I have great parents and siblings but not everyone is so lucky
 
Good points. People are pointing to sky high YoY metrics and don't realize two important things. First, wage growth has been high as well, so real YoY inflation is only 3%'ish. Not that big of a deal. Second, MoM inflation (which is a much better real-time indicator) has been essentially flat for 3 months. Inflation was crazy in 2021 and early 2022, but has gone down substantially since then.
Can't discuss this with delusional people like you two anymore and the comment about paying more taxes is laughable .I can guess you're not an independent voter.
 
I ended up moving 40 miles from my family and while I love where I am I did miss the ease to just stop by my parents or siblings to just have a cup of coffee and talk.

I have great parents and siblings but not everyone is so lucky
Parents yes . But with siblings it can get dicey , especially with sisters! 😂
 
lol @ people who think global inflation can be blamed on a single administration
Comes back to the global handling of covid and US guides world policy. Trump wanted to infamously open the country by easter 2020. Dems did a campaign to say he was hitler reincarnated. I said from the jump the cure would be worse than the sickness. Dems mmt affections knew no bounds. The mmt crowd has failed harder and faster than anyone ever
 
Any way, I disagree with this if rates stay as high as they are. But consensus calls are basically flat price growth yoy
 
Comes back to the global handling of covid and US guides world policy. Trump wanted to infamously open the country by easter 2020. Dems did a campaign to say he was hitler reincarnated. I said from the jump the cure would be worse than the sickness. Dems mmt affections knew no bounds. The mmt crowd has failed harder and faster than anyone ever
For the mods: I know you guys are trying to avoid posts on COVID and politics, but this thread is rife with such comments, so hopefully my providing some facts on COVID, below, is ok in this thread.

Kyk - this is just one more example of you being completely ignorant. Not opening up society fully, including practicing masking and social distancing until we had lifesaving COVID vaccines widely available by the end of April 2021 likely saved hundreds of thousand of lives. As it was, we ~600K people died in the US through that point from COVID from 33MM verified infections - without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we would have probably lost twice that many people during that time. But hey, the economy would've been less impacted.

Still boggles my mind that there are people out there who still don't understand how effective the COVID vaccines are in preventing hospitalization and death. Sure, protection against infection is much lower than it was with the original strain, but this is evolutionary viral biology, folks, and things change, as we now have omicron variants that are more than ten times more infectious than the original strain (which did do an excellent job of preventing infections). Fortunately, the protection against hospitalization and death, especially if boosted, has not waned much at all.

And if you want some sense of the magnitude of lives saved just in the US from the COVID vaccines, here's a simple analysis using data from Worldmeters (linked below): we had ~600K deaths by May 2021, when vaccines became available to everyone (so almost all the deaths were among the unvaccinated to that point). Since then, we've had about twice as many infections as we had to that point (given how infectious omicron is), which would've likely meant another twice as many deaths post May 2021 if we didn't have vaccines, i.e., another ~1.2MM deaths, yet we've only had another ~500K in deaths since then (the vast majority of which were still unvaccinated), meaning the vaccines have roughly saved about 700K US lives.

My estimate above seems reasonable, especially given the HHS study that came out earlier this year estimating that the COVID vaccines saved about 330K lives of medicare recipients, just in 2021 (shorter timeframe and not the whole population, as my analysis of 700K lives saved through today includes). It has also been estimated that over 20MM lives have been saved by the COVID vaccines worldwide just in 2021.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/cov...t-330000-deaths-among-us-seniors-in-2021.html

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-per...cines-saved-estimated-20-million-lives-1-year

And the vaccines/boosters continue to do a great job of saving lives (and preventing costly and scary hospitalizations) and if you don't believe me, read the latest tweet, with data on this from Dr. Topol, below, who said, "What if you had something that decreased death by >90% and hospitalization by >80% but <25% of the people who would benefit got it?" He was, of course, talking about reductions in deaths for those over 50 who had been vaccinated and fully boosted, yet only 25% of those people have been fully boosted. The report shows modest protection of being fully boosted vs. just double-vaxxed and huge protection vs. being unvaxxed, especially if never infected. The message is get boosted, especially if you're over 50 or in a vulnerable population.

 
For the mods: I know you guys are trying to avoid posts on COVID and politics, but this thread is rife with such comments, so hopefully my providing some facts on COVID, below, is ok in this thread.

Kyk - this is just one more example of you being completely ignorant. Not opening up society fully, including practicing masking and social distancing until we had lifesaving COVID vaccines widely available by the end of April 2021 likely saved hundreds of thousand of lives. As it was, we ~600K people died in the US through that point from COVID from 33MM verified infections - without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we would have probably lost twice that many people during that time. But hey, the economy would've been less impacted.

Still boggles my mind that there are people out there who still don't understand how effective the COVID vaccines are in preventing hospitalization and death. Sure, protection against infection is much lower than it was with the original strain, but this is evolutionary viral biology, folks, and things change, as we now have omicron variants that are more than ten times more infectious than the original strain (which did do an excellent job of preventing infections). Fortunately, the protection against hospitalization and death, especially if boosted, has not waned much at all.

And if you want some sense of the magnitude of lives saved just in the US from the COVID vaccines, here's a simple analysis using data from Worldmeters (linked below): we had ~600K deaths by May 2021, when vaccines became available to everyone (so almost all the deaths were among the unvaccinated to that point). Since then, we've had about twice as many infections as we had to that point (given how infectious omicron is), which would've likely meant another twice as many deaths post May 2021 if we didn't have vaccines, i.e., another ~1.2MM deaths, yet we've only had another ~500K in deaths since then (the vast majority of which were still unvaccinated), meaning the vaccines have roughly saved about 700K US lives.

My estimate above seems reasonable, especially given the HHS study that came out earlier this year estimating that the COVID vaccines saved about 330K lives of medicare recipients, just in 2021 (shorter timeframe and not the whole population, as my analysis of 700K lives saved through today includes). It has also been estimated that over 20MM lives have been saved by the COVID vaccines worldwide just in 2021.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/cov...t-330000-deaths-among-us-seniors-in-2021.html

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-per...cines-saved-estimated-20-million-lives-1-year

And the vaccines/boosters continue to do a great job of saving lives (and preventing costly and scary hospitalizations) and if you don't believe me, read the latest tweet, with data on this from Dr. Topol, below, who said, "What if you had something that decreased death by >90% and hospitalization by >80% but <25% of the people who would benefit got it?" He was, of course, talking about reductions in deaths for those over 50 who had been vaccinated and fully boosted, yet only 25% of those people have been fully boosted. The report shows modest protection of being fully boosted vs. just double-vaxxed and huge protection vs. being unvaxxed, especially if never infected. The message is get boosted, especially if you're over 50 or in a vulnerable population.

^^^^^ Reported!
😜
 
What, so f**k ‘‘em if inflation makes it even harder for them, as long as you are doing good?

Wasn't that the moral of the story before 2021? Like, if you can't afford healthcare, student loans, rent, etc pick up those boostraps? Weird, what changed?
 
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That’s surprising since everyone is leaving NJ

Maybe we can buy our 250k properties in Alpine next door to one another. I assume we'll find listings because everyone is leaving NJ, after all it's so crime ridden, they all want to be in Memphis
 
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That is most likely the scenario of the seller. And the buyer is fleeing their state since they are usually from NY.

Why does the population of NJ keep increasing? Are New Yorkers anti birth control?

I know a ton of people who have bought in NJ recently and none are from NY.

No doubt older people will leave, as they have done for decades.
 
The majority of people move within 15 miles of where they grew up. It’s tough to completely uproot from family.

This board has been shrieking for many years that "everyone is leaving NJ."

It has never been true. Case in point the people crying are still here.
 
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Comes back to the global handling of covid and US guides world policy. Trump wanted to infamously open the country by easter 2020. Dems did a campaign to say he was hitler reincarnated. I said from the jump the cure would be worse than the sickness. Dems mmt affections knew no bounds. The mmt crowd has failed harder and faster than anyone ever

Even if we are to believe this, people in real estate are making money hand over fist right now.

If you're one of those people that (in my view, falsely) attributes the economy to the President, the current admin made your industry wealthy.

In fact our entire generation pretty much doubled their wealth "cause Dems!'

Meanwhile, millennials' average net worth doubled as well. In the first quarter of 2022, millennials held an average of $127,793 versus $62,578 in the first quarter of 2020 — a whopping 103.2% jump.

 
This board has been shrieking for many years that "everyone is leaving NJ."

It has never been true. Case in point the people crying are still here.
I wish some of them move out of NJ but they are waiting till they can afford to retire to Florida. However, with their houses price declining as well as their 401k it might take a few more years.

only Moose had the balls to move.
 
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I wish some of them move out of NJ but they are waiting till they can afford to retire to Florida. However, with their houses price declining as well as their 401k it might take a few more years.

only Moose had the balls to move.

My only fault with Murphy is that he hasn't created a fund to help the whiners ship off to the former Confederacy. I know so many people that would gladly chip in!
 
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My only fault with Murphy is that he hasn't created a fund to help the whiners ship off to the former Confederacy. I know so many people that would gladly chip in!
 
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Comes back to the global handling of covid and US guides world policy. Trump wanted to infamously open the country by easter 2020. Dems did a campaign to say he was hitler reincarnated. I said from the jump the cure would be worse than the sickness. Dems mmt affections knew no bounds. The mmt crowd has failed harder and faster than anyone ever
Lmao just stop. Not even Trump wanted to open things up Easter 2020 once he understood what we were up against. But again, even if the entire country was open for the entire pandemic, it wouldn’t have changed inflation. People were still not doing anything, buying anything or traveling. Oh yeah, and you still have the rest of the world to worry about. And then you have the oil situation which is somewhat related, but still a global phenomenon. Either way, I always laugh at how small minded people can be to try to pin global inflation on local politicians. People should spend more time reading financial research reports and less time listening to mainstream media.
 
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