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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

Wikipedia says (assuming it is correct), state legislators make $49,000/year. Divide that by 365, and it is actually $134.25/day.

But that is a bit deceiving--is she driving to Trenton every day? I thought that being an assemblyperson is a part-time job? Looking at the calendar, there will be 27 days where the assembly is in session through the end of June. Taking that number, aren't assembly members only going to Trenton about 50-60 times per year? It's definitely not 365 days a year, so her point is a bit disingenuous?


But how on earth does it cost $170/day to drive from Rivervale to trenton? There's no way tolls and gas are that much
 
But how on earth does it cost $170/day to drive from Rivervale to trenton? There's no way tolls and gas are that much
Ran this through the link below, with city MPG at 20 and highway MPG at 24. Came up with $32 each way for fuel and tolls. It's no wonder people do not trust politicians or the press.

 
Wikipedia says (assuming it is correct), state legislators make $49,000/year. Divide that by 365, and it is actually $134.25/day.

But that is a bit deceiving--is she driving to Trenton every day? I thought that being an assemblyperson is a part-time job? Looking at the calendar, there will be 27 days where the assembly is in session through the end of June. Taking that number, aren't assembly members only going to Trenton about 50-60 times per year? It's definitely not 365 days a year, so her point is a bit disingenuous?


Cost of transportation aside, living comfortably in many/most places in NJ on only $50K per year seems like it would be awfully difficult. I mean, I would have thought the same 5 years ago; inflation just makes it that much worse.
 
Cost of transportation aside, living comfortably in many/most places in NJ on only $50K per year seems like it would be awfully difficult. I mean, I would have thought the same 5 years ago; inflation just makes it that much worse.
Agreed, the rest of the stories of average NJ residents and their struggles paint a more accurate picture. No idea why they'd start the article with a fake stat about a politician.
 
Morris County. Residential. He didn’t get into the details but it was interest rate related in both instances.
Weird because in residential you can lock your rate once you have a contract, not saying youre lying but sounds fishy. Mortgage rates may have already peaked imo
 
I said to watch for demand destruction - the best cure for inflation is inflation itself often times. Puts things back into balance - this whole thing has been on case study on why raising min wage never works.
 
Weird because in residential you can lock your rate once you have a contract, not saying youre lying but sounds fishy. Mortgage rates may have already peaked imo
I thought the same thing but I ran into the guy at the food store so the convo was brief. If I had to guess probably people that were looking for a while in a certain price range when rates were low and continued to look in price range without fully appreciating todays numbers vs 6+ months ago for same house. Cold feet
 
Maybe FOLM (fear of losing money)>>>FOMO (fear of missing out) has set in for a lot of people. Don't think that people doing well understand how hard the inflationary environment is on a lot of people. This was a very sobering read of people living on the edge:

Well done grasshopper. LMK if you are ready for more fun acronyms.
 
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Cost of transportation aside, living comfortably in many/most places in NJ on only $50K per year seems like it would be awfully difficult. I mean, I would have thought the same 5 years ago; inflation just makes it that much worse.
That's not the point. The point is the part of the story about the assembly member exaggerated the facts. Certainly feel for others featured in the story. Times are very hard for a lot of people.
 
I thought the same thing but I ran into the guy at the food store so the convo was brief. If I had to guess probably people that were looking for a while in a certain price range when rates were low and continued to look in price range without fully appreciating todays numbers vs 6+ months ago for same house. Cold feet
Hear ya but theyd know what their qualifications are prior to writing the offer as their lender when issuing the revised pre-approval would consider their purchasing power
 
More and the preponderance of articles is about the real estate markets in retreat

Literally the first sentence of the article backs exactly what ive said here LOL
Housing prices could drop by as much as 10% in many U.S. cities, per Fortune, referencing a new report from Moody’s Analytics. However, the dip won’t represent a national home price correction, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi.”

as ive said, i expect nationally for YOY appreciation to drop to 0-3% as long as rates stay above about 5.5% with duration with select markets seeing some drops but the fair measurement here is national average because we’ll always be able to find markets that beat the 0-3% and those that fall below
 
Paying sales commission is grasping for straws?
Lol so youre assuming people will buy at what you perceive to be the peak and sell at what you believe is a 10% decrease a year later. My B, forgot most people buy a house, live in it for a year then sell and move when theyre not forced to.

youre grasping for straws sir
 
Lol so youre assuming people will buy at what you perceive to be the peak and sell at what you believe is a 10% decrease a year later. My B, forgot most people buy a house, live in it for a year then sell and move when theyre not forced to.

youre grasping for straws sir
If no one has to sell, then you are correct. If people need to sell, then you are wrong. It all comes down to jobs and refinancing market. No one assumes they are buying at the peak or ever need to sell at the lows. That’s why there are bubbles.
 
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If no one has to sell, then you are correct. If people need to sell, then you are wrong. It all comes down to jobs and refinancing market. No one assumes they are buying at the peak or ever need to sell at the lows. That’s why there are bubbles.
People buy not because of price but because of payment they qualify for. We also have the lowest deliquency rate of all time fyi. May broke the all time record which was previously set in April.
 
@fg7321 yup, there will be some markets that see drops. But I guess ill say it one more time. 0-3% price growth over the next year nationally on average. Itd be dumb for me to post one or two markets seeing crazy price growth still, right?
 
@fg7321 bigger look. Overwhelming majority of country very low or low risk of even a .1% price drop. That risk will get even lower as rates start coming down which the market pricing in 50bps in rate cuts in 2023 already after getting up to 325 in december. Likely the 30 year fixed rate already peaked when it hit 6.28% couple weeks ago
 
@fg7321 bigger look. Overwhelming majority of country very low or low risk of even a .1% price drop. That risk will get even lower as rates start coming down which the market pricing in 50bps in rate cuts in 2023 already after getting up to 325 in december. Likely the 30 year fixed rate already peaked when it hit 6.28% couple weeks ago
Except the reason for the rate cut is to support recovery from a recession which means bad job numbers. Double edge sword.
 
Except the reason for the rate cut is to support recovery from a recession which means bad job numbers. Double edge sword.
Going into this with 11.5 million open jobs and extremelt healthy household balance sheets
 
I bought a modest, updated 4 bed home in a nice middle class north jersey suburb in 2013 for 206k, financed at 4%. What absurdly good fortune....even with the high taxes.
 
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Then why the rate cuts?
People will lose jobs no doubt. Losing jobs and going from 3.5% to 4.0% unemployment isnt the end of the world though. Theres job loss every recession. Also, there has never been a recession ever where rates werent cut, so thats why
 
People will lose jobs no doubt. Losing jobs and going from 3.5% to 4.0% unemployment isnt the end of the world though. Theres job loss every recession. Also, there has never been a recession ever where rates werent cut, so thatweather.
If you're well off its basically in your interest for millions to lose their jobs to help curb inflation. It's sad but true.
 
Of course it does me no good to sell it since I'd just need to buy another one. It's purely ledger wealth.
When rates get low again into the 4’s refi and pull some cash out. Tax free. Then use that money to buy an investment property
 
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If you're well off its basically in your interest for millions to lose their jobs to help curb inflation. It's sad but true.
The job losses are actually all white collar jobs. Blue collar jobs are still plenty and wages are going up. The upper middle/middle class will be hurt the most and that’s the a big part of homeowners.
 
People will lose jobs no doubt. Losing jobs and going from 3.5% to 4.0% unemployment isnt the end of the world though. Theres job loss every recession. Also, there has never been a recession ever where rates werent cut, so thats why
when was the last time they cut rates with inflation running so high? Do you think 4.0% unemployment rate will tame inflation? You are just talking yourself into the trade.
 
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when was the last time they cut rates with inflation running so high? Do you think 4.0% unemployment rate will tame inflation? You are just talking yourself into the trade.
Inflation is cooling big time already. Core pce down 3 months straight. Commodities plummeting too. Market already pricing in rate cuts in 2023. Whens the last time we had a technical recession and by the end of it rates were not cut?


 
@kyk1827

you keep referring to the correlation between recession and rate cuts while minimizing the unemployment and recession. Again, if your assumption is unemployment will only go to 4%, then you are probably correct. Unemployment peaked at 10% after the last recession.
 
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I bought a modest, updated 4 bed home in a nice middle class north jersey suburb in 2013 for 206k, financed at 4%. What absurdly good fortune....even with the high taxes.
$206K in North Jersey? Even in 2013 I couldn't imagine anything going that low for a single family house. Unless it is in a flood zone.
 
@kyk1827

you keep referring to the correlation between recession and rate cuts while minimizing the unemployment and recession. Again, if your assumption is unemployment will only go to 4%, then you are probably correct. Unemployment peaked at 10% after the last recession.
Unemployment has never risen .5% or more without a recession. Im of the belief with boomers retiring, 11.5 million open jobs that this wont be a huge job loss recession
 
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