OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

[Salvi's Headband]

Thats the largest home ive ever lived in lol. Until 4th grade it was a 2 bedroom 750 square feet, and until this day my mom still lives in our 1100 square foot 3 bedroom one bath. Plenty big. Too many people buy homes that are too large and a waste of space.

This was the house i lived in til 4th/5th grade. We had 5 people in a 2 bedroom but made it work and we all wound up alright

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Maybe there's something to this Mercury retrograde stuff because I am in agreement with Kyk lol

 

[tom1944]

Saw a CNBC headline that housing sales in Denver Tampa and Seattle are seeing price drops of over 40%

 

[theRU]

Oh just wait... We're just getting started

Saw a CNBC headline that housing sales in Denver Tampa and Seattle are seeing price drops of over 40%

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Saw a CNBC headline that housing sales in Denver Tampa and Seattle are seeing price drops of over 40%

There will be some markets with price drops. Prices going down by 40% YOY is lol territory tho. Ill remain consistent, 0-3% price appreciation YOY as long as rates stay above 5%.

Boise for example is one market i would not buy. Will be worst performer in country imo

 

[yesrutgers01]

Saw a CNBC headline that housing sales in Denver Tampa and Seattle are seeing price drops of over 40%

The wife is doing mortgages in Seatle/Fla and Colo and there have been no price drops like that.

 

[jtung230]

There will be some markets with price drops. Prices going down by 40% YOY is lol territory tho. Ill remain consistent, 0-3% price appreciation YOY as long as rates stay above 5%.

Boise for example is one market i would not buy. Will be worst performer in country imo

I see retracement to 2020 level which means it could fall 15-20%.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

I see retracement to 2020 level which means it could fall 15-20%.

Retracement to 2020 for boise?

 

[jtung230]

Retracement to 2020 for boise?

For US on avg.

 

[theRU]

There will be some markets with price drops. Prices going down by 40% YOY is lol territory tho. Ill remain consistent, 0-3% price appreciation YOY as long as rates stay above 5%.

Boise for example is one market i would not buy. Will be worst performer in country imo

Commodity data is terrible... Wave of pain is coming that I think you are underestimating.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Commodity data is terrible... Wave of pain is coming that I think you are underestimating.

Real estate is not the stock market

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

For US on avg.

You realize that would mean US real estate on average would have to drop 29-30% right? Knowing that you still want to make that call? If so I’ll give you +500 on that call on any amount of money youre willing to bet. Dm me if youre serious.

for perspective peak to trough GFC real estate dropped 28%. So your call is now is worse than 2008? If so why

 

[jtung230]

You realize that would mean US real estate on average would have to drop 29-30% right? Knowing that you still want to make that call? If so I’ll give you +500 on that call on any amount of money youre willing to bet. Dm me if youre serious.

for perspective peak to trough GFC real estate dropped 28%. So your call is now is worse than 2008? If so why

My post earlier clearly states 15-20%. Not sure where you are getting 29-30% from. If you are good at +500 for a 20% decrease during the next 2 years, I’ll wager $100.

 

[dollarbill]

Real estate is not the stock market

Correct. You can liquidate your stocks in two minutes. $$$$

 

[yesrutgers01]

My post earlier clearly states 15-20%. Not sure where you are getting 29-30% from. If you are good at +500 for a 20% decrease during the next 2 years, I’ll wager $100.

Personally, I would love a 20% drop as I am looking to buy in the next year. But don’t see it.

 

[theRU]

Real estate is not the stock market

How many times do I have to tell you that my statement has nothing to do with stock market.

I'm talking about predicting consumer pain, rising costs and mass economic pain that's related.

So back to my original point - you can disagree that any of that will have an impact on the real estate market but I think you underestimate it.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

My post earlier clearly states 15-20%. Not sure where you are getting 29-30% from. If you are good at +500 for a 20% decrease during the next 2 years, I’ll wager $100.

Case shiller index. To retrace to 2020 youd have to see a nearly 30% clawback in home values nationwide. Even 15-20% is not gonna happen. DM me so I can get your info for wager purposes. I’ll give you even the 15% number by June 2024 for $100 +500. Better shot of RU beating ohio state in football this year than this happening imo

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Correct. You can liquidate your stocks in two minutes. $$$$

Put your call in writing. Where do average home prices go

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

How many times do I have to tell you that my statement has nothing to do with stock market.

I'm talking about predicting consumer pain, rising costs and mass economic pain that's related.

So back to my original point - you can disagree that any of that will have an impact on the real estate market but I think you underestimate it.

Of course a .5% rise in unemployment and a recession will effect all sectors. But you should watch the video in OP. Ive already baked this into the cake with my prediction

 

[RUTGERS95]

This thread is going to be gold in a year or two. Pain, nothing but pain.....

 

[jtung230]

Case shiller index. To retrace to 2020 youd have to see a nearly 30% clawback in home values nationwide. Even 15-20% is not gonna happen. DM me so I can get your info for wager purposes. I’ll give you even the 15% number by June 2024 for $100 +500. Better shot of RU beating ohio state in football this year than this happening imo

Done. Case Shiller closed at 300 in April. If it hits 255 by June 2024, you owe me $500. I’ll even promise to donate that to RU. I lose $100 if it doesn’t get there. Don’t know DM. You can publicly shame me if I don’t pay. Will do the same 😀.

 

[theRU]

Done. Case Shiller closed at 300 in April. If it hits 255 by June 2024, you owe me $500. I’ll even promise to donate that to RU. I lose $100 if it doesn’t get there. Don’t know DM. You can publicly shame me if I don’t pay. Will do the same 😀.

I'll take this as well @kyk1827

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Done. Case Shiller closed at 300 in April. If it hits 255 by June 2024, you owe me $500. I’ll even promise to donate that to RU. I lose $100 if it doesn’t get there. Don’t know DM. You can publicly shame me if I don’t pay. Will do the same 😀.

Sounds good. Just an fyi, retracement to 2020 would be case shiller down to 215 LOL.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

This thread is going to be gold in a year or two. Pain, nothing but pain.....

Haha youll see. Make your call, put it in writing here

 

[brgRC90]

Semantics are immaterial. If the market drops 20% it's considered a bear market, if it drops 18.5% many don't consider it a bear market. Housing is headed down.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Semantics are immaterial. If the market drops 20% it's considered a bear market, if it drops 18.5% many don't consider it a bear market. Housing is headed down.

So make your call. Put it in writing. How much does it go down. Our measure will be the case shiller index

 

[brgRC90]

So make your call. Put it in writing. How much does it go down. Our measure will be the case shiller index

Who knows but according to that index it looks like prices went up in 2021 even higher than 2006, just before the biggest nationwide housing crash in history. That doesn't bode well.

 

[theRU]

I'll take this as well @kyk1827

I'm in on this. Just confirming

So make your call. Put it in writing. How much does it go down. Our measure will be the case shiller index

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Who knows but according to that index it looks like prices went up in 2021 even higher than 2006, just before the biggest nationwide housing crash in history. That doesn't bode well.

Haha so basically your premise for a crash is simply prices went up so i think theyll go down? LOL

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

I'm in on this. Just confirming

$100 to win $500 that case shiller hits 255 by June 2024?

 

[RUskoolie]

I have seen more "reduced price" notifications in the last 2 months than I saw in the last 2 years. As a real estate agent I am listing homes more aggressively now and have done so with my last 3 listings. Working on another listing but we don't have a deal yet because the owner still thinks we are in 3% rate market and we're not.

 

[RutgersDom]

Not in a flood zone but definitely a flood prone town. The very low prices in the flood zone weigh down the rest of the prices in town.

Sounds like Kenilworth

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

I have seen more "reduced price" notifications in the last 2 months than I saw in the last 2 years. As a real estate agent I am listing homes more aggressively now and have done so with my last 3 listings. Working on another listing but we don't have a deal yet because the owner still thinks we are in 3% rate market and we're not.

You are correct. Price reductions are back at historical norms of 33% of listings seeing price reductions which is dead on with historical average of 1/3 gets a price reduction. Its mainly due to your point of owners/agents still trying to get 3% rate prices.

 

[jtung230]

Sounds good. Just an fyi, retracement to 2020 would be case shiller down to 215 LOL.

That’s fair, but I did say 15 to 20%. Guess I didn’t realize how much it ran up since 2020. If you think that’s a re-trade, we can cxl the bet.

 

[brgRC90]

Haha so basically your premise for a crash is simply prices went up so i think theyll go down? LOL

Crashes come when prices rise too high too quickly, as they just have. Denial won't keep you from losing money.

 

[RUBlackout7]

What happens when all the hedge funds start dumping their properties?

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

What happens when all the hedge funds start dumping their properties?

They own very very little property in the grand scheme of things

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Crashes come when prices rise too high too quickly, as they just have. Denial won't keep you from losing money.

Just wanted to confirm you had no factual basis for your claim. Thank you

 

[Section124]

I still don’t know how the board defines a crash. If a house was purchased for $200K in 1995 is valued at $550K realistically, but similar homes were selling for $820K the past year. If the market goes down and the house is sold for $620K, is that included in the “crash” ($820K vs $620K)?

I am sure kyk would say there was never a crash in that scenario since the house was sold for more that purchase/valued. However I would say I saw 2 markets (pre-2008 and now) where the house could have been sold for more, but was just sold at not the optimal time. How do we define the “crash”?

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

I still don’t know how the board defines a crash. If a house was purchased for $200K in 1995 is valued at $550K realistically, but similar homes were selling for $820K the past year. If the market goes down and the house is sold for $620K, is that included in the “crash” ($820K vs $620K)?

I am sure kyk would say there was never a crash in that scenario since the house was sold for more that purchase/valued. However I would say I saw 2 markets (pre-2008 and now) where the house could have been sold for more, but was just sold at not the optimal time. How do we define the “crash”?

Definition of bubble bursting is prices go back to where they were when they started going up. Which is around 2012. Ive defined crash here to be kind as prices simply retracing to 2020. Neither will happen

 

[brgRC90]

Just wanted to confirm you had no factual basis for your claim. Thank you

Lol go on and buy more houses right now then. I won't stop you.