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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Having a healthy debate when backed by facts isnt look at me. Its an OT thread about real estate. You dont need to partake
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
When rates go up, yes acquisitions and total number of sales historically goes down. Its silly to say refis imo.
Let’s be real- this is because the sellers listened to friends and their own knowledge of the market than professionals
in all seriousness- it pisses you off as much as anyone else.
you're not as smart as you think. If you understood what I wrote and post refi waves you'd have a clue. Either way I'm set, I don't care what happens to the housing mkt because I'll make money up, down, and flat!
lol, I guess the fundamentals of economics escapes you as well
this thread will be fun to see in 1-2yrs
pain......
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Put your call in writing. Where are real estate prices as measured by case shiller in 1-2 years?
Admittedly I have not done my research on case Schiller - hopefully it's accurate but I haven't compared it against other potential measures. Hopefully they all say the same thing directionally
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Case shiller is the top soured index for nationwide real estate prices
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Jumbos getting close to 4.5%, 30 year fixed conforming more likely to start with a 4 than a 6. I think inventory hits 4 months supply sometime in the fall which historically means 10% YOY appreciation. Can inventory grow enough before the lower rates gobble it up is the real question. If the 10 year treasury can break below 2.5% watch out, I’ll have to consider revising my 0-3% YOY price growth higher at that time if it happens
Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Also curious how influential the case shiller 20 markets are on the full index.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I have stayed out of this thread, but having been in mortgage lending for almost 2 decades now, the trends that are real time (kyk1827 and what I see daily), never ever match up with economists or the news cycle. The lag on what the media says and what I tell people about rates, is always off.
30 year rates closed yesterday at 4.75%, for strong credit borrowers. Jumbo is back to a 4.375 to 4.5% rate.....same with FHA 30 year fixed rate for those true 1st time buyers, who have liquid funds and prefer to put down the absolute minimum and want to keep as much money in their back pockets.
I am not going to scan 19 pages of this thread, but I know sports, mortgages, real estate and a handful of other things very well. Don't ask me about crypto currency, since I have not done my own research and spent enough time with my younger clie ts/homebuyers who have. I would lean on them for the most up to date items, for a topic I don't live and breathe hourly/daily.
I always battle kyk1827 on a number of sports titles, opinions and we differ on a LOT of sports stuff.....but please don't challenge him on real estate or mortgages and where things stand....he is 1000% on the money, accurate and completely in sync with everything I see, since I live mortgages 24/7/365.
I would also strongly suggest following up with RUSkoolie as well. He is knee-deep in the weeds of real estate at every level. And I am here as always to provide mortgage financing for my RU diehards and beyond.
Gginn@kearnybank.com
30 year rates closed yesterday at 4.75%, for strong credit borrowers. Jumbo is back to a 4.375 to 4.5% rate.....same with FHA 30 year fixed rate for those true 1st time buyers, who have liquid funds and prefer to put down the absolute minimum and want to keep as much money in their back pockets.
I am not going to scan 19 pages of this thread, but I know sports, mortgages, real estate and a handful of other things very well. Don't ask me about crypto currency, since I have not done my own research and spent enough time with my younger clie ts/homebuyers who have. I would lean on them for the most up to date items, for a topic I don't live and breathe hourly/daily.
I always battle kyk1827 on a number of sports titles, opinions and we differ on a LOT of sports stuff.....but please don't challenge him on real estate or mortgages and where things stand....he is 1000% on the money, accurate and completely in sync with everything I see, since I live mortgages 24/7/365.
I would also strongly suggest following up with RUSkoolie as well. He is knee-deep in the weeds of real estate at every level. And I am here as always to provide mortgage financing for my RU diehards and beyond.
Gginn@kearnybank.com
lol ok, I forgot I'm dealing with mtg brokers and real estate agents who know everything about how banks operate and the impact on liquidity credit demand cycles and treasury occurences.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
How do you explain the relationship between the 10 year treasury and 30 year fixed rate mortgages? Where do you see the 10 year treasury headed? Put it in writing.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
15. Its down about 75bps over the past month. Do you think it breaks through 350? Whats your call? Put it in writing
Market is kind of dumb right now. The inversion between 2 vs 10 is stupid right now. Think 10 will have to come up. I’ll call 3.15 for 10 yr.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Not a bad call. I dont see it breaking above 325 which implies mortgages rates below 5
I will be shocked if we don't see a crash at this point. There are so many unhealthy elements to virtually every single corner stone of the global economy. It will be a fascinating case study to understand at some point.
Rising rates are making foreign investment expensive.
Things are expensive now in everything that you need
Return to post covid life of normalcy means people are back to spending on all sorts of goods
Savings rates are down, young people are saddled with debt.
Despite the relative shortage of housing, If none of these other factors out weight and impact demand to housing - I'm at a loss for words... There should be less money available to spend on homes
Rising rates are making foreign investment expensive.
Things are expensive now in everything that you need
Return to post covid life of normalcy means people are back to spending on all sorts of goods
Savings rates are down, young people are saddled with debt.
Despite the relative shortage of housing, If none of these other factors out weight and impact demand to housing - I'm at a loss for words... There should be less money available to spend on homes
I appreciate your expertise in mortgage rates. We closed on home with a 30 yr jumbo @ 4.375 a month and a half ago. Presuming we hit a mild recession and the Fed does one more hike this yr, do you think 30 yr jumbos will be in the 3's next yr?
Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing bubble. Here’s his 2022 call
The U.S. housing market is once again headed for trouble. That's according to Robert Shiller.
“A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.
“The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has a futures market for home prices…That’s in backwardation now; [home] prices are expected to fall by something a little over 10% by 2024 or 2025. That’s a good estimate,” Shiller told Yahoo Finance. “The risks are heightened right now for buying a house.””
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Saw that yesterday. Consensus disagrees with him though.Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing bubble. Here’s his 2022 call
The U.S. housing market is once again headed for trouble. That's according to Robert Shiller.fortune.com
“A drop in home prices, Shiller says, looks very possible.
“The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has a futures market for home prices…That’s in backwardation now; [home] prices are expected to fall by something a little over 10% by 2024 or 2025. That’s a good estimate,” Shiller told Yahoo Finance. “The risks are heightened right now for buying a house.””
Dolan is regarded as the biggest mainstream bear. He thinks prices dont get above their current level until the end of the decade
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The past week has been really terrible for people praying for a recession and/or crash of some kind.
At least in NJ the idea that prices are going to drop in a big way anytime soon is not born out by reality.
At least in NJ the idea that prices are going to drop in a big way anytime soon is not born out by reality.
My house that I bought for 206k in 2013 just got appraised at $396k. That's bananas. Wish I'd bought an extra house for the hell of it back then.
Too many people are saying that none of this makes sense or adds up from an affordability perspective. Usually over time that logic wins. You basically got a lot of people locking themselves into homes they really can't afford, and a booming jobs market has covered this up so far. I think when unemployment starts to rise in q1, the pieces will start to fall. More defaults, more foreclosures, and a real serious economic recession. It will be painful.
I just hope I got my time horizon correct.
Can't really afford? Offers now are strong as anything, either all cash or heavy 20+% down payments with credit scores in the high 700s and 800s. That's better than at almost any other time in history. The country is flush with cash even when taking inflation into account.
Check your affordability index.
Just because you can qualify and meet the strict criteria doesn't mean it won't have a consequence down the line. I think we're going to see a lot of "house poor" people that are just a small crisis away from tragedy
Check the latest numbers on personal/consumer debt levels. Worse than pre-COVID. Mortgage balances highest levels in years. I think you are looking at the wrong metrics.
This is the issue I see here. I see houses listed/selling in my neighborhood for almost double what they are really worth. That happened to some degree prior to 2008. If anything causes mass layoffs to happen, I agree a lot of people will be house poor and potentially walk away from properties again. Personally I would never pay these asking prices but understand from this thread there are not a lot of options for buyers.
The saving grace right now is that even with this crazy inflation, the job market is strong. At my company we thought there would be cutbacks/job elimination a month or so ago, but business has remained the same compared to last year. The issue is we ramped up for much higher forecasts (as did a lot of companies). The forecast for next year is the same as this year, so it's too soon to know if there will need to be job reductions at this point.
Agree on first points... Second point what's your industry?
Demand destruction is coming - I think different industries will see varying levels of pain. I think we'll see layoffs soon in many segments
How are they pricing that futures index? Based on an average of home prices in all those cities? Interesting futures contract, just curious if any of you know. It being in backwardation is pretty clear that contract is pricing in contraction. If you are bullish on future home prices then you sell the spread and profit when it goes contango.
My prediction is that the vacation/second home market will get annihilated in the next few years. With rates on primary residences staying north of 5%+ for foreseeable future, return to work making strides, personal/consumer debt levels increasing, etc., I’m betting the market for second homes takes a nosedive.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Oh it makes sense if you knew the data and facts. Facts and data > unsubstantiated narrative. Your position is not supported by the facts. I know it sounds weird but this is an extremely healthy housing market due to the factors of how strong household balance sheets are, how tight lending has been and how high demand is due to demographics. I’m not here to argue with you, just to show you that your position is not supported by the facts. Here are some
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