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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
You should look into studies on future projections of total homes built. If you think the housing shortage is bad now, just wait.
Aldo is the textbook permabear. Something horrible is always right around that corner! :)
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Theres so much tappable equity from refis that hasnt been tapped yet fyi, theres data on this
As i said earlier, I've forgotten more on this than most know. I know what, where, and how to use this data. I don't mean to sound like a dik but son, you're not offering any value here to me other than amusement at the inaccuracies of data
Certainly sounds like a guy who makes commissions on tapping dat equity and is going to shout data that backs it up like a carnival barker
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
What has been inaccurate? And put your call in writing. Dont be a coward. What is yoy price growth june 2022 to june 2023?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Yeah, you are about 6-12 months behind. The inflation crisis coupled with housing that hasn’t been affordable for close to two years has eaten away at consumer balance sheets. Consumer debt is hitting record highs and all you need to do is read the articles I’ve sent you instead of trying to convince everyone that the economy and real estate market are healthy. Do I think real estate for primary residence will crash? No, but flat to 10-20% price decreases wouldn’t shock me over next two years if we don’t get inflation down closer to 2%. On the other hand, I do think vacation housing market takes a beating at some point in next 5 years and I will be ready and armed to go on a buying spree.
If people need to tap home equity to fuel the economy and pay their bills than we are in for a bumpy ride.
Not sure I was clear there. My point was that my guess on why it seems people are wishing for a housing crash in this thread are people (like myself) that want/have cash to buy a 2nd home. I have been looking to buy a ski house and have been watching the market for 2-3 years now. Prices seem overinflated so I'd personally like to see them go down significantly before committing. However, my take is that will not happen. I can hope. 😀
Oh. Purely one anecdotal data point, but perhaps it can be extrapolated. Before getting to that, one big difference now is that it is hard to judge what will happen considering the confluence of factors including the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, geopolitical instability, inflation, and other factors that did not exist during the last major housing downturn.
But to my data point in Sedona, AZ. We started looking to buy around 2006. When had looked at the house we ultimately bought pre-collapse of the market, the price was in the $600's (low to mid IIRC). In 2009 after the crash, it was a buyer's market and we picked it up in the low to mid $300s. We sold in June 2020 (early pandemic) in the low $600's, and we felt like geniuses, until we saw the prices in the neighborhood go further and saw comps going in the low to mid $800's.
As I noted, there is a different dynamic now. Vacation home locations have become permanent home locations for the laptop class that can work remotely from anywhere. See a lot of that now, and also Air bnb rentals are a factor that did not exist so much during the last crash.
Knight, what do you guys do when you're out there? I've always loved that part of the country but am ignorant to how one would spend their time there (vs. traditional options like beach house).
And is it mostly you plus 1 or are kids included in the 2nd house shenanigans?
Hiking, mountain biking, restaurants, relaxing in the hot tub with views of the red rocks, exploring interesting nearby towns within an hour radius or less, and just generally relaxing.
A family member said to me that he could never live there because there is no beach. We were really into the beach when the kids were young, but not so much anymore. When our youngest was 4 or 5, we had been alternating between Disney trips and Sedona trips, and at one point both kids said they preferred Sedona to Disney.
Now, we go alone. It's quiet there. Low humidity. Abundant sunshine with bright blue skies. Most people are generally in a good mood and pleasant, except for some of the locals who are made that the town is overrun with tourists and Air bnbs.
Been going to Sedona regularly since about 2003 after our first visit in I think 1998. We will never get bored of it. I still have a list of hikes and places to explore. We now go at least 3 times per year, and that will increase, and on each trip, we go on at least one new hike or adventure.
Some people believe in the vortexes and their healing power. There is something that seems supernatural to the place for us, as we have had some quite amazing experiences out there.
We found that there is adequate water entertainment without a beach.
Slide Rock State Park is a natural waterslide park, where you slide down moss covered red rocks in the cool creek:
And we discovered a place called the Crack at the Wet Beaver Creek (calm down @mildone ):
This is our next new adventure on our next trip:
It never gets old to us. The hiking and biking is great to burn off the extra calories we eat when eating out.
Def a different dynamic but as you see with Apple now requiring employees to do 3 days in the office I suspect the trend will tip back towards the office for at least 2-3 days, especially now that the “quiet quitting” phenomenon seems to be getting more and more traction. I had never heard of “quiet quitting” until recently but companies are taking notice.
Some of the functions such as legal seem to be having a harder time getting people to go back to the office. Know of a large company in Apple's general area where it seems nobody in legal has plans to go back anytime soon, and there does not seem to be pressure to do so.
In one respect, it might make sense to let it be, cut down on office space (which is very expensive in the Silicon Valley), keep the employees and save some money. But management may see it differently.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Youre wrong, your facts are wrong. Here are a couple of ways. Balance sheets are ridiculously healthy.
^ that $2.5 trillion was built up in a short period time, theres alot more over that, will get the data and post it.
The term quiet quitting is new, but the concept isn't. Do you remember the movie Office Space from 1999. Peter tells the Bobs he does the bare minimum to not get fired.
Totally agree on all your points above. I am full time remote now for my work. Almost all off of my employees/co-workers have been working a good portion from their 2nd homes (if they have one) as well. Most do the AirBnB as well. That is why I am not optimistic prices will go down and may have to bite the bullet and just buy at some point. A month or so ago I did think there would be job cuts across most industries (which may help lower prices somewhat as well as the rise in interest rates), but it seems like the economy (outside of inflation) is pretty similar to last year for my company. We are staying status quo for now which is a good thing in general. Not so much for my desire to spend less.
Direct sources:
Household Debt and Credit Report
Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households
Again, purely anecdotal, but we do patent work for various industries/companies, and not hearing anything as far as slowing down/budget cuts, etc., which we often get advance notice on, but sometimes, the shoe drops quickly without warning. Our oldest interned at a software company that early in the summer was unsure what they would be doing on hiring, but it seems that they are confident about extending offers to this summer's interns. We could use help in our office, but finding qualified people (even getting responses to our ads for hires) has been challenging.
Its worse when u look into how transaction accounts and savings rates are broken down. the divergence of have and have nots is much too great for fed comfort. Add to this the nature of housing spending from re mkt and its unsustainable. Just wait till slow down in raw materials hits this mkt coupled with price and supply. Don't even need to address leverage yet. Every mbs model i see is uhhhh troubling when scanning rate pathsDirect sources:
Household Debt and Credit Report
Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. householdswww.newyorkfed.org
Fed balance sheet windown is anemic but will ramp up to meet target which will really bite the mkts. 42mm people to start paying back student loans
Cash is king right now
Same on wall street but thats a negative driver here. The higher labor costs go the more damaging to soft landing
There’s no calming down at the crack at the wet beaver creek. 😀Hiking, mountain biking, restaurants, relaxing in the hot tub with views of the red rocks, exploring interesting nearby towns within an hour radius or less, and just generally relaxing.
A family member said to me that he could never live there because there is no beach. We were really into the beach when the kids were young, but not so much anymore. When our youngest was 4 or 5, we had been alternating between Disney trips and Sedona trips, and at one point both kids said they preferred Sedona to Disney.
Now, we go alone. It's quiet there. Low humidity. Abundant sunshine with bright blue skies. Most people are generally in a good mood and pleasant, except for some of the locals who are made that the town is overrun with tourists and Air bnbs.
Been going to Sedona regularly since about 2003 after our first visit in I think 1998. We will never get bored of it. I still have a list of hikes and places to explore. We now go at least 3 times per year, and that will increase, and on each trip, we go on at least one new hike or adventure.
Some people believe in the vortexes and their healing power. There is something that seems supernatural to the place for us, as we have had some quite amazing experiences out there.
We found that there is adequate water entertainment without a beach.
Slide Rock State Park is a natural waterslide park, where you slide down moss covered red rocks in the cool creek:
And we discovered a place called the Crack at the Wet Beaver Creek (calm down @mildone ):
This is our next new adventure on our next trip:
It never gets old to us. The hiking and biking is great to burn off the extra calories we eat when eating out.
It's actually a long, hard hike in the summer sun to arrive at the crack at wet beaver creek. 🤣
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I don't need to, I have no vested interested in it. What you should concern yourself with is why do the fed sites refute everything you've put up with your hs grade graphs? I'm not talking about one thing, I mean every one you posted with your quibs on the balances and mkt view. Now I'm no defender of the fed, I think most of them are myopic twits and have had plenty of meetings, students, dinners, interactions that confirm that view to me but the Fed rules all views.
The fed is going to force a complete revaluation of most of the market.....to the downside.
Great stuff. Really appreciate the thoughtful response, Knight!Hiking, mountain biking, restaurants, relaxing in the hot tub with views of the red rocks, exploring interesting nearby towns within an hour radius or less, and just generally relaxing.
A family member said to me that he could never live there because there is no beach. We were really into the beach when the kids were young, but not so much anymore. When our youngest was 4 or 5, we had been alternating between Disney trips and Sedona trips, and at one point both kids said they preferred Sedona to Disney.
Now, we go alone. It's quiet there. Low humidity. Abundant sunshine with bright blue skies. Most people are generally in a good mood and pleasant, except for some of the locals who are made that the town is overrun with tourists and Air bnbs.
Been going to Sedona regularly since about 2003 after our first visit in I think 1998. We will never get bored of it. I still have a list of hikes and places to explore. We now go at least 3 times per year, and that will increase, and on each trip, we go on at least one new hike or adventure.
Some people believe in the vortexes and their healing power. There is something that seems supernatural to the place for us, as we have had some quite amazing experiences out there.
We found that there is adequate water entertainment without a beach.
Slide Rock State Park is a natural waterslide park, where you slide down moss covered red rocks in the cool creek:
And we discovered a place called the Crack at the Wet Beaver Creek (calm down @mildone ):
This is our next new adventure on our next trip:
It never gets old to us. The hiking and biking is great to burn off the extra calories we eat when eating out.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I have money in very specific reits that focus on rent and other downside protected income streams. I am out on one bio that did very well and sitting in 2 others that are up and will most likely be bought out
mkt up or down, you can make money but with a recent move at work, I'm now restricted in a lot of what I can do personally with investments. From the recent bottom, we're up something like 15% and I don't see a matching upside or anything close to half that so I'm parked in cash and will reallocate, as permitted, when my markers say go. the upside to the move is I have guaranteed minimums on bonuses so that is nice.
too many uncertainties for me right now so I'll sit and watch a bit. Although recent inflation data suggests a pause in it's rise, I do not see any avenue for inflation to come down without the fed moving 150-200bps over the next yearish and an acceleration of the balance sheet runoff which to now, has been almost nothing. The fed needs to runoff at least 100billion a month to meet it's 2yr objective. Now that objective can move but even at half that, they are taking a tremendous amount of money out of the system (loan programs feel that the most)
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Lol, sad that you dont have the balls to put a call in writing. Just a weak move. Scared move frankly
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
reits LOL. If you wanna learn about real estate that provides real returns dm me
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Direct sources:
Household Debt and Credit Report
Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households
the facts are there, if you want them of course
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