Yeah sure - why listen to the Fed when you can cut and paste from Logan Mohtashami, a contract blogger with virtually zero credentials and a degree in History. I strongly recommend that you vet the sources from which you pull info if you want to persuade folks.
That’s not how Twitter works. This Logan fellow simply tweeted a chart from JP Morgan. JP Morgan is the source of the info. Logan is just simply using the skills his history degree brought him to link the info.
The chart on consumer finance is funny. It’s from Q1 2022. Like to see after Q2 numbers. Going to assume the other asset decrease by 25% thanks to the stock market. Including home value is also hilarious. Classic 2006 move.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Haha funny enough its almost as if the tweet hes responding to is responding to your link itt.
FYI, Logan is one of the top housing economics in the US, was on CNBC yesterday morning but sure, hes no one lol. CNBC does zero vetting. You know youve lost when you start trying to put down the individual rather than the data haha. Nice playing pal. And he literally just reposted JP Morgan data lol
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
NAR’s data release today. We are up to 3.3 months supply nationwide but new listing volume is slowing down. The market that is likely to experience the first price declines YOY will be vegas. Boise and Phoenix likely will at some point as well. Vegas up to >6 months inventory and based on the chart below you can see what that means if it keeps growing
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
1) Because excess liquid disposal income in savings is tied to the stock market LOL
2) dow is at -.54% over past 6 months lol so even if you wanna play that game, TRY AGAIN!!! I appreciate the effort though
3) if you opened your eyes the data is as of 6/30/2022. TRY AGAIN!!! hahaha
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
@Rutgers Chris @jtung230 @RUAldo @RUTGERS95 also fyi, Logan Mohtashami has an open invite policy. He is willing to live debate anyone as long as they show their face and name on screen rather than being anonymous keyboard warriors. And again, hes not a bull, not a bear, hes a data guy haha, hes just sharing facts.
this goes back to what Ive said earlier, inventory determines prices.
this goes back to what Ive said earlier, inventory determines prices.
You and I are looking or talking about different charts. Consumer balance sheet clearly states Q1 2022.
I don’t do tweets. Can you ask him what he thinks about the trends? Yes, all the numbers are still good but it’s also all trending negative.
Re-read my post. I was only pointing out that Logan's qualifications were irrelevant in the tweet you posted, it was simply him posting a JP Morgan chart. I don't need to debate him lol.
I’ll put Logan M. in the “Guy the Crypto Guy” category = blogs for clicks and pushes appearances.
Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession
Sales of previously owned homes fell nearly 6% in July compared with June, according to a monthly report from the National Association of Realtors.
-20% YOYHome sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession
Sales of previously owned homes fell nearly 6% in July compared with June, according to a monthly report from the National Association of Realtors.www.cnbc.com
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Hhaha hes a retired bond trader and now a SALARIED analyst for housing wire. TRY AGAIN!!! Want to debate him? He’ll take you up on it. And again, his debate isnt one sided its just he’ll present facts and if you agree, great, if you disagree he’ll debate and ask questions and show data. You in? It’s free, you just have to get on screen with him and show your face and do so live. You in?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
V
Yup, very similar to the 2018 rate spike. 2018 rates went up, builders slowed building for 30 months, annual home sales went from 5.72 million to 4.98 million then mortgage rates fell the next year and corrected some of that weakness. Again, all comes down to months of supply, we are only at 3.3 months and the inventory growth pace is slowing before we get into the seasonal drop. Again, all you have to do is look at this chart.
Honestly, it’s silly to debate this daily or monthly. I’ll check back in 6 months.
I'm pretty sure there is zero you can show me. My investment strategy serves a very specific purpose and I'm very limited to what I can own in the cap mkts. I have 3 investment accts, one I can keep because I don't manage it. 1 I keep for a specific purpose that produces enough passive income to put 2 kids through college with zero out of pocket while limiting downside risk to my portfolio. The other is loaded with with long-term holds that I can only sell and do on occasion.
oh and for the record, being on cnbc doesn't make you a somebody. I was on there and bloomberg and I'm a nobody.
on top of that, look at the otherside of table and realize what and who you're debating with lol
Me thinks you didn’t bother to check his LinkedIn profile or the “About” link on his website. Do you even know who this guy is? Seriously? BTW, great to see that he still lists he was the basketball coach at Irvine High School from 1994-1999. And according to his profile the peak of his career outside of blogging was a senior loan manager at AMC Lending Group. Not to mention that he lists “Contract” next to his HousingWire gig which typically means he is NOT salaried and gets paid per post, click, article, etc.
Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession
Sales of previously owned homes fell nearly 6% in July compared with June, according to a monthly report from the National Association of Realtors.
Confirms what I have been thinking, seeing and hearing.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall when this guy wakes up to 36 profile views mostly from NJ 😂
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Haha I actually know him personally. Have had drinks with him, dinner with him, met his family. Trust me when I say he is very well off. Lives in a $2mm+ property in southern cal. Writing about real estate is legitimately a hobby of his he happens to get paid for.
but again, youre a coward who wont put a call in writing and have refused an open invite to debate him if you disagree with him. When you refuse to face the music, it is hard to take people like you serious. Actions speak veryyyy loud
@RUTGERS95 also makes me laugh. Guy is a stock market fanatic who is dumb enough to put money in REITs 🤣. Talk about tell me you have no fvcking clue what youre doing without telling me you have no fvcking clue what youre doing haha
anyone not willing to put calls in writing is not a serious person. Real men step up to the plate, make calls, and have balls.
oh also, the fed board consulted with Logan regarding housing LOL, this is public info in meeting minutes when they referenced him. Its understandable that youre afraid to put calls on record because the result would be embarrassing. Very easy and a coward move to be ambiguous to hedge bets, i get it. If markets remains up YOY and i come to dunk on you, you just respond with a simple “lol I never made a call” if it goes down nationally yoy you can say “HOW DIDNT YOU SEE THIS COMING”. Weak boys, very weak boys
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Cool. So youre okay with being on camera and facing questions. Why not do it with Logan?
Yeah, you know him so well that you thought he spent his career as a bond trader and is now a salaried employee at HousingWire. Both of which are completely WRONG. And I’m sure the guy has plenty of dough. I never said he was broke = he’s clearly mastered the art of social media hype by sucking in people like you. As far as I can tell he’s basically the Tony Robbins of housing.
I’m not sure how I went from a couple of posts/opinions on a Rutgers football message board to openly debating a housing blogger, but I would hope that Logan M. and I both have better things to do. Regardless, what’s the “call” I won’t put in writing? I’ve expressed my view plenty of times, which is what I thought you were all twisted about.
If we want to worship bloggers, here you go:
seekingalpha.com
Home Sales Are Crashing Faster Than The Bursting Of The 2005 Housing Bubble
Existing home sales continued their historic plunge in July to reach the lowest level in 7 years outside of COVID, down roughly 1.7 million home sales in just the last six months.
seekingalpha.com
lol you just are so full of yourself and $hit. You really haven't a clue and it's on display here. I would almost pitty your ignorance but you're too arrogant. I always get a kick out of guys like you, you think you know but once at the table with adults, it's apparent you have not understand of the breadth of soundbites you parrot. Your incessant need to have 'on display' looks and trying to call out the adults who could care less screams, 'I've a little dick, I'm not really successful in life, I need to feel bigger than I am' so listen son, go sit back in the room and like I used to tell jr traders, summer interns, associates; go get me fking coffee
just for shits and giggles, I looked up logan. a huge LOLIf we want to worship bloggers, here you go:
Home Sales Are Crashing Faster Than The Bursting Of The 2005 Housing Bubble
Existing home sales continued their historic plunge in July to reach the lowest level in 7 years outside of COVID, down roughly 1.7 million home sales in just the last six months.
Yup…and I’m not one of those guys that will only listen to an expert with a MBA, but Logan M. doesn’t check a single box in terms of education, experience, etc. He’s a guy that knows where to dig up charts, add some of his own spin, and generate clicks. Kudos to him for sucking in so many suckers…
it's like the old west when people would buy the elixirs and like. Those suckers are no different than today's suckers only the sale item has changed. I've been pretty good on these boards for a few years and haven't attacked, made anyone feel stupid, or disparaged people so I'm being nice in this thread. I'll admit though, this cat who sells mortgages or is a RE broker is definitely on the lower end of the maturity and iq stage imho.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Hahaha you sure do talk a big game for such a shallow man. Happy to meet up and sit face to face
men with veryyyyy low T levels usually dont wanna do that though, or put calls in writing. This would actually be good banter if you were willing to take a position. All good tho, some dont wanna face the music. Enjoy the weekend hal
Data/trends:
Historically Low Delinquency Rates Coming to an End - Liberty Street Economics
Total household debt increased by $312 billion during the second quarter of 2022, and balances are now more than $2 trillion higher than they were in the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic recession, according to the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
housing debt, minus mtg, is over 25%. We've never had a major recession/mkt correction under these circumstances.Data/trends:
Historically Low Delinquency Rates Coming to an End - Liberty Street Economics
Total household debt increased by $312 billion during the second quarter of 2022, and balances are now more than $2 trillion higher than they were in the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic recession, according to the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the...libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
of note, leveraged loans are higher than 2008 and worse yet, there are fewer players in this space now.
These numbers are mind-boggling:
Total household debt increased by $312 billion during the second quarter of 2022, and balances are now more than $2 trillion higher than they were in the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic recession, according to the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. All debt types saw sizable increases, with the exception of student loans. Mortgage balances were the biggest driver of the overall increase, climbing $207 billion since the first quarter of 2022. Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the previous quarter, reflecting rises in nominal consumption and an increased number of open credit card accounts. Auto loan balances rose by $33 billion.
agree, it's concerning to say the least.
I can tell you that banks are very cognizant of balance sheets right now and risk models on all debt desks are in 'game on' mode. The only areas we see that have lower risk ratings are mtg pools/reits tied to rental income that is sustainable under varied bionomial rate paths.
I'll say it again, cash is king in my eyes. I'd rather miss some gains then risk sudden risk off events that drive things much lower. We know behavior during bad times is 3 things; cc payments so people have spending power, rental payments, and car payments so people have transportation. All other spending takes a big back seat during bad or worsening times
Getting OT but I never understood the appeal of Tony Robbins. Dude has made his entire life out of hyping people up and his life accomplishments are hyping people up. I don't get it. Dude feels like a bs artist.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Not sure you read the whole thing. Quoted from the link,Data/trends:
Historically Low Delinquency Rates Coming to an End - Liberty Street Economics
Total household debt increased by $312 billion during the second quarter of 2022, and balances are now more than $2 trillion higher than they were in the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic recession, according to the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the...libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
“Although debt balances are growing rapidly, households in general have weathered the pandemic remarkably well, due in no small part to the expansive programs put in place to support them. Further, household debt is held overwhelmingly by higher-score borrowers, even more so now than it has been in the history of our data. Mortgages represent the largest household debt product, and their balances dominate the overall total. Since the financial crisis, mortgage underwriting has been tight, and the vast majority of mortgage balances are now held by borrowers with high credit scores, as shown in the left panel of the chart below. Still, if we exclude mortgages and look at all other types of debt, we see a shifting of balances toward higher credit score borrowers, albeit a less dramatic one, as shown in the right panel.”
Some of you have a really tough time coping with the fact that the real estate market and stock market are apples and hand grenades
I posted it because it was a somewhat balanced view on the state of affairs, although I’m still focused on the trend lines which are not good = does that mean 2008 all over again? Nope. But are we in a housing recession? Yup.
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