Def possible. I don’t think the market will collapse but just look at the numbers the last few years = the increases were never sustainable and now interest rates will do the rest of the work in keeping prices basically flat or negative.
Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest decline since 2011
The sharp and fast rise in mortgage rates this year caused an already pricey housing market to become even less affordable.
👀
@Knight Shift thanks for that. Very interesting although 90% of those towns are heavy rental towns and that is very likely investors like you and me just buying in an LLC.
Yes. Our two LLC's hardly "big corporations." Doubt we will see huge dips again, but we are so lucky to have bought our place 5 houses from the beach in 1999 when houses were extremely cheap. We could barely afford the place back then, we took a chance, and it has paid off big time. Our tentative plan between two separate properties (one if further from the beach) but 5 separate rental units is to live mostly off of rental income and social security, without having to touch our retirement savings in and out of 401Ks.
We had not planned our life and retirement this way, but it is funny how things work out. Maybe it was all those Carlton Sheets infomercials from the early 1990s that influenced me, but we always put down at least 10 or 20%:
We enjoy our tenants, treat them really well, and we have tenants generally stay with us a long time. We have summer tenants that have been coming back for more than 15 years. While I am a desk jockey now, I enjoy doing maintenance projects and hard labor on yard work, clearing trees and brush etc. I have that to look forward to in my "retirement."
I sometimes think about rental properties around college towns like you are doing, but not sure I have the stomach for dealing with college students. I have seen some good opportunities close to where my youngest kid goes to college in Hamden, CT, but don't think I want to manage a property that far away.
College students get worse and worse every year. The kids get dumber and the helicopter parenting intensifies. It's absolutely pathetic some of the calls we get. Male seniors in college. Mommy calls us. Just embarrassing.
Me and the wife were talking about this. Our son (sophomore) left his stuff in storage up in Connecticut. He went back early on Monday for training for the campus EMS squad (good kid). My wife asked if we were bad parents for not helping him move in. He did not ask us, and we didn't think he wanted us to take the trip to move him in. Hell, the ONLY time my parents came to Rutgers was to drop me off freshman year, and for my graduation. We will pay him a visit on the way to the BC game.
I appreciated the independence, and I'm pretty sure both of our kids do too. They have to learn to fend for themselves sometime, don't they?
LOL back in the day 1980 I was the only person who got thier security $$$ back from the landlord in my college house we did no damage but he would get over on all the kids unitl he met me and I went to his house to get my money. Got that from my mother she would never back down from people trying to cheat her.
The rise in mortgage rates makes it difficult to refinance loans already taken and reduces demand, which may help to depress housing prices. In the US, mortgage rates are rising. I can’t be 100% sure what I’m doing, but I’ve decided to sell my house in Baltimore and buy real estate in Asia. I found an agency willing to buy my house in Baltimore for good money: https://www.flagshipbuilders.net/. I am very glad I have received this offer because I no longer see the prospect of buying real estate in the United States.
Last edited:
this reads like one of those spam messages that pops up 'I make 50k a month from home'
TK is an entertaining poster and I like that about him. That being said, if you move past the dollar cost averaging point, his perspectives on economic and securities analysis are extremely limited. He's an excellent troll or a terrible investor. Either one isn't materially helpful.
Talk about burying the lead. Did anyone click the tweet? Point #2…”Over the coming year, Moody’s Analytics chief economist @Markzandi now predicts U.S. house prices will shift somewhere between 0% to -5%.”
the same moodly analytics that still said to buy mtg tranches through 2008? I know quite a few of their analysts and to be honest, that dipshit logan is more believable
A lot of these analysts don't know shit. 6-9 months ago all I read on financial websites were that the "smart people" on Wall St did not see a recession happening in 2022. Now they're trying to redefine it. Same with inflation.
My point was people (you) responded to the headline that 183 markets would fall 20%, when the whole analysis was only showing a 0-5% decline. It was a misleading tweet/attention grabbing headline. If you were to believe the whole thing, then we are in fact not in a bubble
'It’s a remarkably uncertain time': Redfin CEO warns of rapidly cooling housing market — including the cancellation of deals under contract
Interest-rate hikes have made mortgages more expensive, prompting prospective buyers to slow down. Now, sellers are pulling back.
www.marketwatch.com
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Haha so at first because they subscribe to your position, theyre right. Then after learning theyre not, theyre just dipshits haha.
your posts are entertaining though, very obvious you lack confidence and have been bitched around at work while working for the man and come here trying to feel big and tough like youre the man.
If not, unveil yourself and prove otherwise
95 might come at things hard, but he's also more (relatively) open-minded to different perspectives and analyses than you've been in this thread.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Im totally open to facts and data. He has shown not to be.
boise, phx, vegas I see have double digit price drops for example. His issue seems to be me saying this isnt a nationwide bubble or 2008 2.0 and in return its turned into him posting shit his big boss says to that frail man
gotcha and don't disagree but with the headwinds, data we're seeing, trend, and coming layoffs (which are beginning), earnings warnings etc etc, .5 decline is not even realistic in any models I'm seeing or hearing about across multiple banks
ignore him, he's not worth the waste of breath imho. Kid trying to educate me on mtg mkt is kinda comical.
Reality is no one knows the future but up front data and underlying data does not look good. I hope I'm wrong and I hope things do go south but I don't see how it won't. Of note, the Fed has been crawling with the balance sheet windown as they are scared (I know this first hand) that the landing will be harder
Well said - nobody truely knows anything - they look at current data, make a hypothesis, throw in some guesses/predictions based on assumptions or historicals....
I agree with KYK that low inventory is an issue - but the questions remain.
Can all the other bad data overpower that? Can those factors swing the supply demand equation? Supply demand equation isn't just supply or demand its supply relative to demand.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Another big issue is a traditional seller becomes a buyer unless it’s a case of death with no surviving spouse. The new supply data doesnt do much. Youll see headline numbers like “10 months of new construction supply, highest since the lead up to the GFC!”. Reality is of that 10 months less than 1 month is finished product, 6 months under construction and 2+months havent even stuck a shovel in the ground (and likely wont until rates come down).
You really need forced credit selling to see inventory levels really elevate, the issue with hoping for that is the post gfc credit and income profiles of borrowers are so so so strong
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Historically there is a seasonable dip but July’a dip (-0.77%) is largest since January 2011 and first MoM drop in 32 months.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Black Knight: Median House Prices Declined in July; First Decline in 32 Months
Important caveats: In normal times, median house prices flatten or decline seasonally in the 2nd half of the year.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
For your consideration:
Mark Zandi from Moodys
fortune.com
Mark Zandi from Moodys
These 183 housing markets could soon see home prices fall 20%, Moody's says
Moody's Analytics unveils its downgraded U.S. home price forecast.
This was discussed last week from a different post. Headline is clickbait, he also says ”Over the coming year, Moody’s Analytics chief economist @Markzandi now predicts U.S. house prices will shift somewhere between 0% to -5%.”For your consideration:
Mark Zandi from Moodys
These 183 housing markets could soon see home prices fall 20%, Moody's says
Moody's Analytics unveils its downgraded U.S. home price forecast.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
My friend Lance wrote that article haha. Lance personally thinks market goes down around 10-15% nationwide. Me and him disagree but have good banterFor your consideration:
Mark Zandi from Moodys
These 183 housing markets could soon see home prices fall 20%, Moody's says
Moody's Analytics unveils its downgraded U.S. home price forecast.
Goldman Sachs says brace for an even bigger housing downturn
Housing is likely to see an even larger downturn than previously expected due to limited inventory, according to Goldman Sachs.
My wife follows the trends much closer than I do as she is a licensed Mortgage Advisor in 15 states.
And we are also in the housing market. The rates do not scare her too much for our purchase, she knows that we can always refinance if and when they dip again. We will also be able to qualify for pretty much best products out there with our credit scores, down payment and salaries.
What is the trend we are seeing in Bergen Co that has been holding us off is the following.
So many homes are still trying to sell for over market. There are no good comps near them and they are holing long periods for top dollar. And, they will not negotiate. Also- been seeing the realtors at open houses telling us they have mult offers on the table and would need to make a formal offer by EOD Monday- and funny enough, they are doing another open house 2-3 weeks later.
And then you get the flips-People purchased fixers last year- put a few cosmetic $$$ in and try to flip at +100%.
Well, you just cant get a mortgage for those anymore. And to be honest- almost every house we have seen in Bergen that is being flipped, still needs a substantial amount of work- unless you want "crap" grade finishes and the owners are not even smart enough to get it down to 99%.
I am sure a lot of people are still buying but if you are looking for a quality home for yourself- it is still not a friendly buyer market.
She has also had a ton of people across the country just getting cold feet at last moment. Some even willing to pay penalties to get out of a contract.
And we are also in the housing market. The rates do not scare her too much for our purchase, she knows that we can always refinance if and when they dip again. We will also be able to qualify for pretty much best products out there with our credit scores, down payment and salaries.
What is the trend we are seeing in Bergen Co that has been holding us off is the following.
So many homes are still trying to sell for over market. There are no good comps near them and they are holing long periods for top dollar. And, they will not negotiate. Also- been seeing the realtors at open houses telling us they have mult offers on the table and would need to make a formal offer by EOD Monday- and funny enough, they are doing another open house 2-3 weeks later.
And then you get the flips-People purchased fixers last year- put a few cosmetic $$$ in and try to flip at +100%.
Well, you just cant get a mortgage for those anymore. And to be honest- almost every house we have seen in Bergen that is being flipped, still needs a substantial amount of work- unless you want "crap" grade finishes and the owners are not even smart enough to get it down to 99%.
I am sure a lot of people are still buying but if you are looking for a quality home for yourself- it is still not a friendly buyer market.
She has also had a ton of people across the country just getting cold feet at last moment. Some even willing to pay penalties to get out of a contract.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I think you posted the wrong link. The downturn they mentioned doesnt seem to be in regards to prices but rather in regards to builders.Goldman Sachs says brace for an even bigger housing downturn
Housing is likely to see an even larger downturn than previously expected due to limited inventory, according to Goldman Sachs.www.cnbc.com
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Falls right in line with what i predicted which was 0-3% yoy appreciation from june 2022-june 2023Goldman Sachs says brace for an even bigger housing downturn
Housing is likely to see an even larger downturn than previously expected due to limited inventory, according to Goldman Sachs.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
It is, but not to the degree you're making it out. I posted their quote above which is just mirroring what I've said. I expect yoy price appreciation of real estate from June 2022 to June 2023 to be 0-3%. If rates stay above 5.75% with duration (8-10 months+), I expect to see nominal price declines nationally from August 2022 to August 2023. I put myself in the 3%ish decline camp on that one.
Layoffs and more coming. People will need to sell and more inventory will hit the market suddenly the home you purchased in the way out suburbs where you cant find another remote job does not look so good forcing you to move closer in....
Side note Goldman forcing workers back to the office you cant work from Florida anymore and get paid NY Wages. Those days are gone just like 3% mortages
www.yahoo.com
Side note Goldman forcing workers back to the office you cant work from Florida anymore and get paid NY Wages. Those days are gone just like 3% mortages
Goldman Sachs plans to cut thousands of workers. Here are the other major US companies that have made cuts in 2022, from Amazon to Twitter.
Goldman Sachs has become the latest major company with plans to slash its headcount as business growth slows and costs increase.
Just had the housing conversation with my neighbor who owns a pretty successful Hedgefund- his take is that numbers are already taking a 2008 type of hit but it hasn't been released.
We didn't get into it too deep, convo came up during a morning walk...
Take it for what it's worth but the man is living in a $25mil 2nd home...
We didn't get into it too deep, convo came up during a morning walk...
Take it for what it's worth but the man is living in a $25mil 2nd home...
Similar threads
Kirk is a top 20 OC in America, Most Here Dont Know What Hes Trying to do, We Explain In The Thread
- anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
- The Round Table 2
