With only about 1 square mile, it wasn't quite as difficult to turn it around. It's a lot cheaper than Manhattan, but I don't know that I'd say Hoboken has "cheap rents".
That is correct. It’s the best part of living out here. The lack of people. It’s an odd duck because it has the infrastructure; sports teams, architecture, museums, schools, big companies and crazy old money of a place that should be twice as big because it once was at 675k people and now it’s like 300k. They didn’t let the place go to hell or maybe they did but it’s really nice now. Been here for 6 years. I live 11.7 miles from Pittsburgh and it feels like Randolph,NJ. 11.7 mikes from the Lincoln tunnel and you are barely outside first ring jersey suburbs.
The cheap rents comment only applied back to the 1980s.
There are parts of JC that are still pretty "ungentrified" that I think will get revitalized before Newark, but Newark is definitely starting.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Show the data. New listings down almost 20% YOY and active inventory trending down sooner than seasonally normal
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Mortgage delinquencies just hit a 23 year low last month. Theres no forced credit selling this cycle. Healthiest balance sheets of all time for homeowners
Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
REO: lender Real Estate Owned
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Mortgage rates over 6%. Stock market down 25%. Insane to think home prices won't come down some. Already seeing rents start to crack some in this area.
around country seeing Parts of south Florida and palm beach area that were super hot down 10-20% right now.
kyk claims not a correction l. Fine. But think 5-10% down is likely.
if you didn't sell in spring you missed it for now.
around country seeing Parts of south Florida and palm beach area that were super hot down 10-20% right now.
kyk claims not a correction l. Fine. But think 5-10% down is likely.
if you didn't sell in spring you missed it for now.
Supply is still rapidly contracting, keeping prices elevated even with the rate increases.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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I believe if rates hold above 5.75% for 8+ months we will see roughly 3% price declines nationwide Sept-22 to Sept-23. The questiond then become
1) will rates stay that high?
2) will sellers sell? https://www.housingwire.com/article...2Ow&utm_content=225915791&utm_source=hs_email
The second question is the interesting one because sellers arent selling right now and real estate is as simple as supply and demand. Demand has taken a big hit with rate increases, problem is supply has grown considerably. We see this is our rental properties and rents continue to skyrocket as prospective buyers remain renters. All time high renewal rates on rents
Redfin predicts sharpest turn in housing market since 2008 crash
The housing market is looking up for both buyers and sellers, real estate experts said. Homes are selling for lower prices, but high mortgage rates are still impacting affordability.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Thats basically a “sky is blue” headline haha. Of course when mortgage rates go up at the fastest rate of all time in a single year appreciation will slow hahaRedfin predicts sharpest turn in housing market since 2008 crash
The housing market is looking up for both buyers and sellers, real estate experts said. Homes are selling for lower prices, but high mortgage rates are still impacting affordability.www.foxbusiness.com
While my parents did not give us a down payment for a house over my life they gave us so much more that it dwarfs any money I would gave used for a house
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Define alot. There will be some but not a ton. The people who are fvcked are those who took out bridge debt late 2021 WITHOUT purchasing a rate cap and now their lender is requiring one be purchased and they didnt raise enough equity for reserves.
Or people that are looking to sell or refi. Can’t make a loan that doesn’t cover. There will be pain. Cap rate got way too tight on MF. It’s going to be a bad combination of higher financing cost and slower rental growth rate.
We'll see what happens - past predictions of pain and an unhealthy economy look to be true... leads me to think nothing will be unscathed but maybe real estate has the ability to swim upstream.
I think those who have been conservative fiscally will be fine, but we do know there are many who over leverage themselves - will there be a crunch? We shall see
I think those who have been conservative fiscally will be fine, but we do know there are many who over leverage themselves - will there be a crunch? We shall see
To combat inflation, the fed is going after housing hard. It's the only part of the economy they have some control over through interest rates. They can't control food or energy prices or supply lines.
there hoping to squash demand for housing to bring that pesky inflation number down. Because owner adjusted rent makes up such a large part of the CPI number, the fed will keep raising rates until they have victory over housing. So we know housing appreciation is coming to an end soon if it hasn't already. The fed won't stop, it's all they have to combat inflation.
as for the supply side of housing, with ubemployment this low people can afford there homes. However, if economy tanks and that employment number ticks up you will see a pretty meaningful uptick in supply.
I also wonder with the huge increase in cost of living and the coming increase in taxes as a result to areas like the metropolitan area if retired baby boomers don't look to move out quicker to lower cost areas of the country.
there hoping to squash demand for housing to bring that pesky inflation number down. Because owner adjusted rent makes up such a large part of the CPI number, the fed will keep raising rates until they have victory over housing. So we know housing appreciation is coming to an end soon if it hasn't already. The fed won't stop, it's all they have to combat inflation.
as for the supply side of housing, with ubemployment this low people can afford there homes. However, if economy tanks and that employment number ticks up you will see a pretty meaningful uptick in supply.
I also wonder with the huge increase in cost of living and the coming increase in taxes as a result to areas like the metropolitan area if retired baby boomers don't look to move out quicker to lower cost areas of the country.
Not everyone has a mortgage to keep current. Those that do and file BK usually pay their mortgage whether it's a chapter 13 plan or reaffirmed in a 7. I was really referring to the vehicle bubble. Many people are spending more than they can afford on vehicles right now, which will result in more repos and more bankruptcies later.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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I disagree with Fannie here IF rates stay this high. With that said I think the average 2023 mortgage rate is 5.5% range which will result in what I believe is around 0% YOY price growth. I originally anticipated 4.75-5% rates and thought that would lead to 0-3%.
My 1st mortgage around 1989 was a 30 year adjustable that started at 7.25% which was a pretty good rate at the time. After 1 year, I was at 9.25 and a year later 11.25 before I was able to refinance to a 15 year fixed at a much lower rate. I only had to mortgage $125K. People who refinanced or bought in the past year won't have a problem with their less than 4% rates but I can see the market slowing quite a bit and prices dropping because the increased rates, though low, make it difficult for 1st time buyers with housing prices 400K plus.
I came across an old mortgage document from 2012 and I had a 30-year at 3.25%. In 2006, I think I was at 5.25%. Hard to believe how badly the Fed F’d up with “transitory” nonsense. The reality is that the higher interest rates go, the lower home price appreciation. I laugh when people talk about 10%+ mortgages when average price of house in NJ was probably like $250K.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Powell explicitly multiple times today saying theyre not even close to considering selling off MBS has me speculating spreads come in. Theyre so out of whack right now. Historically 30 year fixed rate mortgages are 175 over 10Y treasury. Coming into today they were 300. I believe it’s possible after todays presser spreads come back to earth and 30 year fixed rate could get between 550-575 within the next 45 days or so
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Yup, as im watching im yelling at the tv how the hell do you not ask a follow up of asking him to define correction. All he did is swap out housing “reset” for housing “correction”. Granted he did throw deceleration is appreciation but how the hell didnt she ask that follow up.
They f'ed up because they use CPI which lags reality 6-12 months. It caused them to be too lax in 2021 and is currently causing them to be too aggressive now (since leading indicators show inflation coming down hard, including the housing market).
Agreed…housing prices in 80s were much cheaper than todays standards. If you want to argue what people were getting paid I think we need to look at wage growth which really hasn’t increased much at all
The numbers related to mortgage as a percentage of household expenses are higher than ever. Will be interesting if energy costs skyrocket this winter or if property taxes go up. At this point, with the crazy prices people paid for houses in the past two years shouldn’t those properties be reassessed?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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not how it works, if everyone was assessed higher and the towns expenses didn't raise at the same rate, all a re-assessment would do is just lower that tax rate. They prefer to keep artificially lower assessed values and raise the tax rate. Why? You can appeal your assessed value, you cannot appeal the tax rate
^Meanwhile, I can't hire employees fast enough. I think the Fed has it wrong, tbh. Plus, it's a pain in the neck every time the FFR and Prime changes due to adjusting docs, systems and marketing materials.
Yeah, but a homeowner that just paid $1.2M for a home has no basis for an appeal. That’s different than when the assessor knocks on your door and makes a determination.
This, most industries still can’t even come close to filling open, business critical positions. Where are these layoffs going to come from?
thinking instead of mass layoffs you’re just going to see a lot of companies straight up go belly-up.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Again, not how it works.
1) NJ is not a point of sale state
2) Towns don't just stuff their coffers. Towns collect taxes for the services they need to provide. If everyone's value went up 20%, then raising assessed values 20% has no effect as they'd still collect the same amount of tax.
Aren't you the guy calling for a crash too? LOL. Which would imply if they re-assessed at what you believe is the top of the market then when prices go down they get hit with an unprecedented wave of appeals that they couldn't handle? Much easier to raise the tax rate which can't be appealed. This is basic stuff.
I don’t believe they can base your tax assessment on the recent purchase price and reset the assessed value for every new purchase
I believe Summit used to do that and lost in tax court.
I will see if I can find the case
I’ll admit I’m not an expert in this area but I know people that bought big houses that sold for artificially low prices pre-COVID because taxes were $30K+ which hurt marketability. And the day after closing started the tax appeal process based on point of sale/price. What’s funny is that it wasn’t that long ago that the big houses with high taxes would sit on the market until the price came down below the expected range. Also, new construction is basically point of sale.
I don’t believe the assessment is based only 1 home but a market of several homes of similar size and condition
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