This is true. The total amount of property tax revenue that a town wants to collect is set every year with the budget process. Assessed value of individual properties is only used to figure out how much of this total each property owner pays (your slice of the pie). It's a zero sum game.
For tax appeals.....it doesn't matter if my property is say 50% overvalued/assessed if all other like properties in town are also 50% over assessed. For an appeal, you have to prove that you are 50% over-assessed BUT your neighbor with a similar house/property is assessed at fair market value.
I don't know what blogs you guys read or what real background some of you have other than mtg bankers and re agents because hiring and employment falls into several categories.
Why is the Fed so stupid? They messed up in 2021 by using lagging data and are now repeating the same mistake. WTF?
New construction is a different story due to it being new and needing a new assessment. Theyre taxes as a % of value anyway regardless
Lending restrictions at least in real estate have been as tight as ever past decade. Did you see jobless claims numbers today? At what point do they step back and say wow alot of boomers (a huge demo) are retiring so were going to have a lot more job openings than normal. I dont know the answer
Fed is wrong 90%+ of the time. The last time they got it right was quietly saving Europe's ass via central bank dollar swap lines reaching almost 1 trillion (italy should be blowing us) but the Fed is rarely right and rarely has the correct view imho. I think there is ample evidence of this
Manufacturing industries are going to be shedding jobs. As sales continue to get impacted there will be more layoffs in associated Business including the white collar hires that were brought on to help deal with record sales
You've highlighted the single most significant factor (IMO) for why the labor market has been so tight--my generation of baby boomers have begun retirement.
To tell you how bad it is, I'm taking my first full week of vacation since July 2019, even though I have hundreds of hours available.
I'm in the same boat as you but I'm exposed to a wider range industries in my role. Slowdowns are happening big time right now. And inventories are also very high for businesses with lots of exposure. Im clearly very bearish, but I really think things are about to get super ugly. Might be wrong but it's looking like the pendulum is swinging hard in the opposite direction.
You’ll get the bottom 5% of GS coming to the market soon. Sure you will see more. The only problem is that most still think that they should get pay X like it’s 2021.
spot on
Im friends with the author of that article. He is calling for 5% nationwide price declines. If interest rates stay this high I believe demand/sales rate will soften enough to allow inventory to grow to get us in that range too. Personally, i didnt foresee interest rates getting this high. First time ever rates moved this fast.More
These 210 housing markets are now vulnerable to 20%-25% home price declines, finds latest Moody's downgrade
The Pandemic Housing Boom is looking more and more like the Pandemic Housing Bubble.www.yahoo.com
Also talking to neighbors the conversation is changing from "did you hear how high the price was on the house down the street to my friend cant sell her how two offers fell through and they reduced the price twice"
For mortgages the number to follow is the 10 yesr treasury obviously. Its out of whack right now. Historically 10Y Treasury + 175 is the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Right now it’s 10 year treasury + 300. Rates should be around 5.5% right now.
Is it out of whack? Credit spreads are wider in every market. There is no such thing as “should be”.
Historically thats what the implied rate would be. The best mortgage credit analyst I follow believes theyll be 5.5% to end the year. We’ll see
Lol. I'd beg to differ on jp although things have changed since my time there. Credit spreads will probably go wider based on associated cds.
I agree but you havent answered my main question regarding timeframe for when spreads come in though. Housing will be impacted mostly be rates, current homeowners are in the best position theyve ever been
No expert either, but I doubt there would be enough of a tax change to make it a smart buy
Wild haha. So insane. Heres an insane data point released today. Just how much demand is sitting on the sideline ready to pounce? Mortgage rates dipped to the low 5’s in july/august. The result? Sales month over month were up 18.3% and compared with a year prior, down just .1% yoy. The only thing that can slow the real estate market down is rates rising at a historically high rate, which is happening
Your bet was that nationwide real estate prices drop 20% measured by case-shiller right? With the rates this high we will see slight price drops now but nothing major imo. Tbh I didnt think rates would get this high. Market is so strong fundamentally thats why people are perplexed why the market hasnt “crashed”
I now see. Your call is prices retrace to 2020 as measured by case-shiller. Not happening.
