Why do you need a watch when your phone has a clock? :)
Anyone concerned with wrist bling for a meeting is a fking loser
Man since when did everyone start hating on a nice piece lol. There was a time when a nice suit and nice watch were a fun thing to save up for.
Watches never popped for me. Then again, I have never worn a piece of jewelry in my life except for the one I am legally obligated to wear in the eyes of God and more importantly, the Wife.
:)
It’s not for everyone. Personally, not a fan of Rolex. Most models are clunky and gaudy. I do like the GMT and Sky-Dweller.
Bad analogy. You are citing the same thing. Phones and watches are different. D'uh.
I’ve driven both and no doubt a higher end car like BMW tends to deliver better performance (aside from aesthetics) and interior amenities are nicer. Whereas, IMO all watches tell the same time and use many of the same components so it’s more about hype and image.
I have always looked at a car as a tool with the sole purpose of getting me from one place to another
I just wanted reliability and safety. My neighbor (who is a great guy) loved cars and used to get so frustrated when I was not thrilled with whatever car he bought
I used to think like this about cars until my wife got her Lexus. I always thought high end cars were a waste of $ but it's built so much better than my Toyota SUV. My Toyota SUV feels like a tin can compared to her car. If safety is a driver for you, paying more may makes sense (depending on the manufacturer).
I have no doubt they are nicer and provide certain nice features that lesser cars do not.
But I just want to get from A to B
I did lease a Lincoln Town car for a week road trip once and it was nice
I have Submariner Rolex that I may have worn 3 times in the past 3yrs. Have had it since late 90s but now I have an apple watch and where that daily and don't really care. Not sure why I never sold the Rolex at the peak though
Nice suit and shoes amen, speaks volumes. Wrist bling is too showman shit, reeks of insecurity
30 yr Mortgage rates hit 7.22% a 20 yr high. Doesn't include the large move higher in 10yr treasury yields today so this number will be higher soon
Home sales appear to have crawled to a halt with new mortgage applications at decades low as well.
Fed still going to keep foot on the peddle. They are coming hard for housing and won't stop.
Home sales appear to have crawled to a halt with new mortgage applications at decades low as well.
Fed still going to keep foot on the peddle. They are coming hard for housing and won't stop.
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Curious what real estate brokers in this serve have seen in the last month or so. Is stuff selling. Are buyer and sellers both just on hold? Are prices coming down or are just things not moving?
Colleague bought a Rolex from a guy on the street (Park Ave) about 10 years ago. Seller had the the sales receipt but was offering a large discount. Brought it up to our floor and it was hideous. Absolutely hideous. Bulky and gold. A year later, while on vacation in the Caribbean, he showed it to the owner of a watch shop. The guy immediately told him that it was fake, Rolex's move continuously, they don't click along.
Oldest trick in the book. Buy one to get a receipt then use that receipt to sell countless fake ones. Always wondered if they took the initial one back immediately. Freshman year a group of us went into the city and a guy tried this on us. Called him out for it being fake and he dropped the price to $20. We all rocked those fake Rolexes and tag’s for years lol
lol I wouldn’t have fell for that at 12 years old . What kind of job did this guy have ?
He was a fool but spent the next 10 years in risk mgmt at a bank if you can believe it. Left his wife for a stripper. Yes, he was that dumb.
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I think it depends on the price level. I just put my mother's house on the market.46 year old split level in a decent Morris County town and in a good section of that town. Being that the house had little in the way of upgrades and though livable it could use between $100-$150K of improvements, we priced it low and after 1 weekend had 14 offers almost all above list price. Highest offer was $100K over ask but I turned it down because too many contingencies which I felt would not be met. Very happy with the results.
Brother in law just had an offer accepted on a nice townhome in Hunterdon and still had to go 7% over ask.
Risk mgmt!!!! The irony. Half of the Rolex you see in the wild are fakes. I knew it wasn’t for me when I saw my waiter at Del Frisco wearing one.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Market is dead. Its gonna be further dead with where rates are right now. Admittedly i did not think rates would hit 7.37%, anyone saying they did is lying to you. The jump is rates has no historical precedent, uncharted territory. If rates hold this high with duration, we will see double digit price declines yoy in the 10-15% range imo. Spreads should come in on mortgages when the fed pauses and the market is convinced theyre not going further. Lenders charging a premium for pre-pay risk right now as mortgages need to be beld 6-8 months to simply breakeven on servicing etc.
The weird part of this market is sellers dont wanna sell and buyers dont wanna buy which is keep both supply and demand very low. Imo the sales pace will slow far enough that even if supply doesnt get back to 2019 levels (which was the 4 decade low at the time) we will see months supply grow due to the historic demand shock.
What would you advise someone that maybe has to buy in the next year or two ? Growing family etc .
In my opinion, we have a bigger black market economy than people think, most notably cash transactions people don't report, or pay taxes for. No matter what I read what I see indicates an awful lot of people have money and time to spend it. Disneyland is packed on a Tuesday in January. The roads are crowded all day long. The airport is packed on a Tuesday morning in October, one of the slowest travel times, you would think. The gym is busy on Monday morning. For all the whining and doom and gloom coming from both left and right what I see contradicts the rhetoric. I am fortunate enough to not to have to work and I see an awful lot of people who get to enjoy a similar lifestyle of cars, cell phones, services, trips, time to enjoy them and, of course, more than enough food.
LOL. Nice try.
A lot of people knew that rising rates were going to hit the real estate market. It's the most obvious place where rising rates have an effect. The Fed has been clear that they are going to keep raising rates until inflation came down which hasn't happened yet. You fell for the pivot narrative and you've been wrong.
We haven't even started to see the drop in RE prices.
Correction - inflation has come down already and been pretty flat the past few months. Sadly, the Fed is stupid and using brutally lagging metrics that track inflation from 6-9 months ago.
😁
It doesn't matter what you think about inflation, it only matters what the Fed thinks.
Edit: Funny that you come in to take the other side because you fell for the transitory story and the pivot story.
Reality matters. The stupid Fed will figure it out sooner or later. House prices have been going down for the past few months. Even rent went deflationary last month. Everything that is happening now (stocks and housing) is artificial due to the Fed.
They messed up in 2021 by using the same lagging metrics that they are screwing up again with now. It's pretty comical. Sad, but comical. How can the Fed be so dumb? They need a 15-min math lesson on CPI and PPI.
Toyota and Lexus are mostly the same car ie Rav 4 & Lexus Nx . They put nicer amaneities and less plastic in the Luxury line but many of the other parts are the same
If you think Rolex market is crazy how about the secondary market for luxury bags, purses, etc. And sneakers! One pair sells at an auction for 200K now everyone is a sneaker collector.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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If it was me, I'd personally wait to see what happens until March/April 2023. Here is the question I'd ask myself IF I didn't already own a home. If I owned a home I'd just chill and smile with my 3% rate and renovate/expand my current home.
1) Does inventory grow in a meaningful way by that time? If not, inventory aint gonna grow much and I'd probably buy something in the spring using an ARM or try to get seller to buy down the rate (yes, that can be negotiated) if rates are still high as demand would be low and then just refi when rates come back down.
My belief? Inventory is going to grow but not that much however, months supply could grow a lot more meaningfully as the sales rate continues to crater.
Keep in mind when rates got back down to the low 5's, August sales volume of new homes shot up 18.3% month over month and was just .1% behind the August-2021 pace which was peak frenzy time. That tells me when rates get back to 5-5.5% things are going to get nuts again as 5-5.5% means ARM's and jumbos in the 4's all while we have HISTORIC levels of demand on the sidelines. I have a bunch of public posts with datasets/charts on my personal facebook page that you can go look at. Just search Kyle Kovats
The gov’t will never admit it but PPP fraud was rampant and even if there was no fraud so many people got free money they didn’t need. Then you have the “American way” which means instead of being prudent and staying in a nice 2500 sqft home and refinancing at 3%/$400K mortgage they decided it’s way better to go 3000+ sqft with a 3%/$800K mortgage because “money was free”. The foundation of this country is spending and debt. Just look at a stock like POOL = how is it that COVID hits and all of a sudden everyone can afford a $100K+ pool? I get that wages have been increasing but the debt numbers just don’t add up.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
no shit rising rates effect real estate LOL. The sky is also blue. That's not what I said though.
What I said was I didn't think rates would rise to the mid 7's, anyone being honest didn't either as there was no historical precedent for it.
The question is how long can rates stay high? I'm not entirely sure of the answer but spreads will eventually come back towards historical norms of 10-year treasury +175 but that won't happen until the fed pauses and the market is convinced they're pausing. Rates are being quoted so high above norm spreads right now due to lenders baking in a pivot and pre-pay risk.
Very very weird market. Sellers don't want to sell, buyers don't want to buy. Going to be a longggg winter for alot of realtors imo
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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yup, OER lags about 6-9 months (it's a dumb metric on how they measure it to begin with). So OER which is a large component of CPI will remain high until about March then start easing. The only thing that could've slowed this market was a historical rise in rates. We got that historical rise in rates.
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