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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

Well, there technically still is an attorney review period however, its just 3 days of nothing since neither party hires an atty and after those 3 days you are officially locked in under contract.

Its interesting. South jersey doesnt use attorneys for the most part and the agents down there swear by it
I bought 3 houses with attorneys and there was always an issue. I’ve bought 3 in OC without and never had any issues
 
Where do you live?
middletown but this isn't the only place I've bought/own/owned property

interestingly enough, we're flying down to Florida next week to talk terms on a new property there without a realtor

This mkt doesn't need a realtor. All one needs to do is put a sign on their yard that says offer me lol
 
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This mkt doesn't need a realtor. All one needs to do is put a sign on their yard that says offer me lol
That actually happened to me with our last sale 2 years ago. As I’m putting the sign up on the lawn the guy across the street comes over and says take down the sign I’m buying it at asking price Luckily the realtor was my daughter so no commission involved either way but had it sold in an hour
 
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middletown but this isn't the only place I've bought/own/owned property

interestingly enough, we're flying down to Florida next week to talk terms on a new property there without a realtor

This mkt doesn't need a realtor. All one needs to do is put a sign on their yard that says offer me lol
ANYONE can sell a home by themselves without a realtor, I am not denying that. However, I'd say the overwhelming majority of the time, you're leaving money on the table. I'm not talking total sales price, I'm talking net.

And I'm calling bullshit on the florida thing. You live in NJ but you're flying 3 hours away to talk terms in person on a random property without a realtor.. haha. Anyway, if true, good for you. When buying a house ALWAYS if possible try to go direct to a sellers and buy a fsbo. Why? Well, because of what I said above, you can bend them over and totally fvck them haha.

What do you do for a business and how does your company generate revenue?
 
How does attorney review get handled?

There is none because there is nothing to review. Any issues from home inspection are worked out by the buyer and seller via the realtors
In Arizona, it was something like this (I'm an attorney, and I'm of the view that in most deals they are not useful at all and slow the process down- OTOH, if there is a legitimate issue or dispute, well have at it and get ready to pay up):

200w.gif
 
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ANYONE can sell a home by themselves without a realtor, I am not denying that. However, I'd say the overwhelming majority of the time, you're leaving money on the table. I'm not talking total sales price, I'm talking net.

And I'm calling bullshit on the florida thing. You live in NJ but you're flying 3 hours away to talk terms in person on a random property without a realtor.. haha. Anyway, if true, good for you. When buying a house ALWAYS if possible try to go direct to a sellers and buy a fsbo. Why? Well, because of what I said above, you can bend them over and totally fvck them haha.

What do you do for a business and how does your company generate revenue
more than welcome to believe what you want but we've been looking down there for a while and have friends there where we want to go so this isn't as 'unbelievable' as you'd think. Definitely not random and definitely not out of the blue. They'll get more than with realtor taking the cut and we'll get less than going through realtor

easy and becoming pretty common

I can help you do this if you want
 
more than welcome to believe what you want but we've been looking down there for a while and have friends there where we want to go so this isn't as 'unbelievable' as you'd think. Definitely not random and definitely not out of the blue. They'll get more than with realtor taking the cut and we'll get less than going through realtor

easy and becoming pretty common

I can help you do this if you want
Lol. I do tons of private off market deals for my buyers.

Anyway, what do you do for a living and how does your company generate revenue?
 
There are a lot of fraud going on in the agency loans for MF. A lot of shady UW and borrowers trying to ripoff agency’s.
Im skeptical of the madison title bit if thats what youre referring to. We’ll see how it shakes out
 
@KK1827 is the all cash home buying industry a shady one?

Maybe I haven’t been paying attention all these years, but I feel like I’ve been noticing a lot of people on social media getting into this industry over the past few years. People that had other W2 jobs getting into the cash purchase / flipping industry and already doing 5, 10, 20 flips a month in just a matter of years.

The rate they purchase / flip houses just doesn’t seem normal and no idea where the capital would come from (unless they’re laundering money).

That industry just seems real fishy. Some of these dudes don’t seem like the brightest bulbs either.
 
@KK1827 is the all cash home buying industry a shady one?

Maybe I haven’t been paying attention all these years, but I feel like I’ve been noticing a lot of people on social media getting into this industry over the past few years. People that had other W2 jobs getting into the cash purchase / flipping industry and already doing 5, 10, 20 flips a month in just a matter of years.

The rate they purchase / flip houses just doesn’t seem normal and no idea where the capital would come from (unless they’re laundering money).

That industry just seems real fishy. Some of these dudes don’t seem like the brightest bulbs either.
Tbh Ive seen less and less flips as rates went up. However, most flips are funded via hard money loans. Typically paying 3-4 points up front then 12-14% annualized interest.
 
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@KK1827 is the all cash home buying industry a shady one?

Maybe I haven’t been paying attention all these years, but I feel like I’ve been noticing a lot of people on social media getting into this industry over the past few years. People that had other W2 jobs getting into the cash purchase / flipping industry and already doing 5, 10, 20 flips a month in just a matter of years.

The rate they purchase / flip houses just doesn’t seem normal and no idea where the capital would come from (unless they’re laundering money).

That industry just seems real fishy. Some of these dudes don’t seem like the brightest bulbs either.
I want to start reporting these people to the real estate commission. They're called wholesalers and they are scum. They steal equity from people by saying they will pay cash for the home. they put it under contract, then assign the contract to an actual cash buyer with a crazy high markup sometimes.

Social media has morphed into "buy my coaching program and you can get rich too" posts.
 
Your observation regarding the potential for sellers to shift commission responsibilities onto buyers highlights an evolving trend. While this approach mirrors practices in the commercial realm, its implications within residential markets merit scrutiny.

In contemplating these shifts, it's essential to consider ancillary industries, such as water damage restoration experts. As real estate dynamics evolve, so too may the demand for services like theirs. Understanding these interconnected relationships can provide valuable insights into broader market trends.
 
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the real estate market. It's always interesting to hear different perspectives. It sounds like you're anticipating some significant changes, especially for agents and buyers.
I personally dont believe much changes. I actually think buyers agents will make more money ironically
 

Banks could make a quick buck if they allow this and charge a fee.
 

Banks could make a quick buck if they allow this and charge a fee.
Banks should do a transferable property mortgage - seems like a less risky proposition because you are keeping the same borrower on the hook and just applying the existing mortgage balance/rate to the new home purchase. They would already know the credit profile of the borrower and just need to appraise the new property.
 
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Banks should do a transferable property mortgage - seems like a less risky proposition because you are keeping the same borrower on the hook and just applying the existing mortgage balance/rate to the new home purchase. They would already know the credit profile of the borrower and just need to appraise the new property.
Banks just want to make money. If they didn’t sell the mortgage already, they should just charge double the fees they would normally get and let the buyer assume. It’s a win win. The only potential loser is the new buyer when rates come down and they realized they overpaid
 
I am seeing rents flattening. That’s a good sign for buyers.
We are selling our house right now. Want to downsize since pretty much everyone is off to college. We were hoping to get part of that bidding war everyone has been talking about. Hasn’t really happened, just basically 15 people all unwilling to go above the same amount. Granted we are at the top of the towns price range which I’m assuming is our issue.
 
We are selling our house right now. Want to downsize since pretty much everyone is off to college. We were hoping to get part of that bidding war everyone has been talking about. Hasn’t really happened, just basically 15 people all unwilling to go above the same amount. Granted we are at the top of the towns price range which I’m assuming is our issue.
Things have definitely slowed down here in eastern pa. Looking to sell soon as well.
 
Things have definitely slowed down here in eastern pa. Looking to sell soon as well.
My daughter sold her home 4 years ago. The price is up $200,000 since then.

It was a small starter home.

Sooner or later the math is not going to math for a large portion of the people looking to buy their first home.
 
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My daughter sold her home 4 years ago. The price is up $200,000 since then.

It was a small starter home.

Sooner or later the math is not going to math for a large portion of the people looking to buy their first home.
The math works when your retired parents/inheritance is footing the bill. Crazy amount of wealth transfer going on and it's not going to stop for a long time.
 
The math works when your retired parents/inheritance is footing the bill. Crazy amount of wealth transfer going on and it's not going to stop for a long time.
That is how my daughter will buy her next home. Parental assistance.

She bought her home originally all on her own without help from us.
 
We are selling our house right now. Want to downsize since pretty much everyone is off to college. We were hoping to get part of that bidding war everyone has been talking about. Hasn’t really happened, just basically 15 people all unwilling to go above the same amount. Granted we are at the top of the towns price range which I’m assuming is our issue.
The classic graduation sign turning to a for sale sign. Are you happy with that price or did your broker priced it lower and hope for a bidding war? The old saying you don’t want to buy the best house in the neighborhood issue. Are the prices at the ask and you already did a best and final? My next step would be to go back to all of them with a price you will sell at.
 
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To what extent is this a product of companies buying these homes for subsequent rental? I see a lot more homes advertised as rental properties, and at rental prices that would make saving up a downpayment very difficult.
 
Do you see interest rates coming down ?

If so, then prices go up like everyone predicts ?
If I could predict interest rates I wouldn't be in real estate haha. With that said heres my thoughts

1) I dont think the labor market is as strong as the jobs reports, jolts and initial claims is stating. I think this will begin to show more in the next 3 months.

2) fed has 3 cuts penciled in this year, market says 2. I think they cut 3X and start in July which I recognize is an out of consensus call on my behalf

3) spreads should continue to slowly come in towards historic norms between the 10 year treasury and 30 yr fixed rate mortgage. Right now we’re around 275bps, should be more like 170bps. If spreads were normal mortgage rates would be around 6.25% right now.

4) even if unemployment ticks up to 4.5% I think the effects of lower onterest rates will mean more and lead to growing home price appreciation.

5) I think the fed is playing with fire here and that they shouldve cut as early as march. Im in Mark Zandi’s camp that shouldve started cutting last fall
 
My daughter sold her home 4 years ago. The price is up $200,000 since then.

It was a small starter home.

Sooner or later the math is not going to math for a large portion of the people looking to buy their first home.
The prices are where they are because the math works. The younger generation doesn’t want a 1990s/early 2000s McMansion. This is why you see bidding wars on what used to be starter homes, and then the winning bid has an A6 and G-Wagon in the driveway.

A sizable group in the 27-40 demographic have more money than they know what to do with.
 
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