They don’t want the McMansion or can’t afford the McMansion ?
I
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The lower end of the market is getting bid up. A family member lives in 2 BR 800SF condo in a retirement community in Brick that went for under $100K less than 10 years ago. Similar units are now selling for over $300K. These are not particularly nice units- 1 level, no garage.
Don’t want, too big with too much upkeep. So instead of spending 800-1M on the McMansion in Bridgewater, they spend 600-700 on the 1500-2000 sq ft home in Morristown, Cranford, Mendham, Metuchen and opt for some nice cars, trips, etc.
See this frequently among my demographic.
Bigger markets are still growing. But more down showing up now. But it’s not due to demand. Most down markets are due to influx of supply.
Someone remind us - was 2016-17 a bear market for real estate? House now selling for double what it sold in 2017:
www.zillow.com
| Date | Event | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 5/10/2024 | Listed for sale | $999,999+126% |
Source:
|
| 3/27/2017 | Sold | $442,500-16.4% |
| Source:
| ||
| 10/20/2016 | Price change | $529,000-11.7% |
| Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 | ||
| 9/16/2016 | Price change | $599,000-7.7% |
| Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 | ||
| 8/10/2016 | Price change | $649,000-27.8% |
| Source: Keller Williams - West Monmouth #21621337 | ||
| 5/28/2016 | Listed for sale | $899,000 |
2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ 08736 | MLS #22413021 | Zillow
This is a 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, Single Family home. It is located at 2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ.
www.zillow.com
It’s hard to get leverage (or over leverage) on a house. It’s so much easier to over leverage yourself for a car loan. That’s why delinquency rates on auto loans is at a 30 yr high.
Prices didn’t really go up from 2008 - 2017. If you annualized from 2008 to now, the number is less shocking.Someone remind us - was 2016-17 a bear market for real estate? House now selling for double what it sold in 2017:
Date Event Price 5/10/2024 Listed for sale $999,999+126% Source: MOMLS #22413021
3/27/2017 Sold $442,500-16.4% Source: MOMLS #2170010210/20/2016 Price change $529,000-11.7% Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 9/16/2016 Price change $599,000-7.7% Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 8/10/2016 Price change $649,000-27.8% Source: Keller Williams - West Monmouth #21621337 5/28/2016 Listed for sale $899,000
2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ 08736 | MLS #22413021 | Zillow
This is a 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, Single Family home. It is located at 2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ.
We bought our first house back in March 2019 (29/30 y/o at the time) - 2.1k SF 4bed/3bath split level on a 1/2 acre in Lawrence Brook (northern East Brunswick - down the street from Rutgers Gardens) - for $375k... Today our house is showing on Zillow (which I know isn't completely accurate) as $715k...
To @Joey Bags point - we share a 2015 CR-V, but we do enjoy trips...
Her younger Brother and his Wife are in a similar boat, but looking for a house now between Northern and Central NJ... Everything they've been seeing is 6-800k...
To @Joey Bags point - we share a 2015 CR-V, but we do enjoy trips...
Her younger Brother and his Wife are in a similar boat, but looking for a house now between Northern and Central NJ... Everything they've been seeing is 6-800k...
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I can speak from personal perspective. In December, we bought a starter home about 1400 ft.² in Roseland for about $740,000. It was listed at $649,000. Could we have a far bigger house for more money? Sure. However, currently it is just two of us and we get married in November we had no need for bigger space. Bigger space just means more headaches and more problems and higher utility costs at least thats how we saw it
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Totally agree, it is 100% a supply story as the demand and absorption over the past 2 quarters has been near record high.
The conundrum that we now face is that New permits for 5+ unit construction has totally plummeted and you’re going to be in a spot in late 2025 where demand begins to far exceeded supply and rent growth pushes above historical norms, but due to the lag and how it is reported in inflation data, for two years while rents are climbing above historic norms rent growth will look flat because of the antiquated ways in which housing is inputted into CPI and PCE
you'd be hard pressed to find a 2,000 sq ft home for 600-700K in those areas
Prices are little below ask but we priced it pretty high. While we don’t really need to sell it, I’m also not going to dig in and not sell for 50-60 k. Way I figure it is without a mortgage it costs me about 100k a year to run the house. So it’s dumb not to look at it from a big picture level. Also, when we planned for retirement, we never included the housing value in our predictions so it’s “found” money.
Dump it. Large houses are a waste after the kids grow-up.
My only other advice is to do what your wife wants 😀. She say sell, you sell.
The post office says Squan, but the geography and the map say Wall?Someone remind us - was 2016-17 a bear market for real estate? House now selling for double what it sold in 2017:
Date Event Price 5/10/2024 Listed for sale $999,999+126% Source: MOMLS #22413021
3/27/2017 Sold $442,500-16.4% Source: MOMLS #2170010210/20/2016 Price change $529,000-11.7% Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 9/16/2016 Price change $599,000-7.7% Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 8/10/2016 Price change $649,000-27.8% Source: Keller Williams - West Monmouth #21621337 5/28/2016 Listed for sale $899,000
2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ 08736 | MLS #22413021 | Zillow
This is a 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, Single Family home. It is located at 2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ.
Wall zip codes:
07719- Belmar
07762- Spring Lake
08750- Sea Girt
08720-Allenwood
07727- Farmingdale
Only one of these is in the boundaries of the Towsnhip of Wall. 🤷♂️
Someone remind us - was 2016-17 a bear market for real estate? House now selling for double what it sold in 2017:
Date Event Price 5/10/2024 Listed for sale $999,999+126% Source: MOMLS #22413021
3/27/2017 Sold $442,500-16.4% Source: MOMLS #2170010210/20/2016 Price change $529,000-11.7% Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 9/16/2016 Price change $599,000-7.7% Source: Diane Turton, Realtors-Spring Lake #21631688 8/10/2016 Price change $649,000-27.8% Source: Keller Williams - West Monmouth #21621337 5/28/2016 Listed for sale $899,000
2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ 08736 | MLS #22413021 | Zillow
This is a 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, Single Family home. It is located at 2546 River Road, Manasquan, NJ.
And turton’s people usually underprice and get a bidding war going
There's far more buyers than sellers. And perhaps this time will be different (famous last words) but historically when rates drop, supply drops due to affordability improving and more buyers qualifying for loans.
When rates drop this time, supply will increase. Millions of people have been waiting to sell, but they are "trapped" in 3% mortgages they don't want to give up.
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I'm seeing this in my neighborhood
Where is this money coming from?
Inheritance?
Parents gifting before death?
Great jobs?
Over leveraging?
It’s really crazy . Even on a 600k house now , if you’re lucky enough to put 50 percent down ( and that’s a damn good down payment ) you are probably looking at a 3k monthly payment easy (didn’t do the math but just guessing). Property taxes and interest rates both high $$ .
I understand family and familiarity, but I can't for the life of me see why a person coming out of college or out a few years of college would be living here, unless you're either living at home with parents saving money or making serious bank
Millions of people have also been waiting to buy but have been trapped renting due to higher rates. We had the lowest total annualized home sales on record last year population adjusted.
Aren't all those 27-40 year olds struggling with student debt?
No idea
Did their parents pay for college (or grandparents)
Did they receive scholarships?
Did they do county for 2 years then a 4 year school, or did they do an affordable 4 year from the jump ?
We're in our early 40's and aren't really part of the "in" crowd
We don't do happy hours, play dates at the park, post on social or meet at the bus stop for coffee
No disrespect to those that do - it's just not our thing, and we're a bit older then the youngin's that have move in recently
Or maybe the debt was either not so onerous or that spending decisions put a higher priority elsewhere.
Could be
Personally, I like seeing younger people in the development
Likely means they'll be here for awhile, and are invested in things we are (schools, keeping the house nice and tidy, local sports, etc.)
Personally I qualify for 1, 3 and 4. I think it’s absolutely all of the above
Anecdotal but my cousin who is a Sr Software Engineer for Meta cleared 400k at 28 in salary, bonus, and stock. Lives in the Bay Area. Out here it’s not uncommon at all to clear 200k+ annually in early/mid 30s.
That's some good coin right there
Also a super smart guy (or girl) to be a software engineer (and at 28, a senior one at that)
That's one sure way to reduce your total number of bidders...a seller who likes playing games
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www.glassdoor.com
Yeah it’s bonkers, that’s really peak salary for that age short of owning your own successful business.
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