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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

It is also amazing how much sellers/buyers differ in the same towns. We started our search to stay in NJ and started looking down in the Southern Beach areas but even found those to be $700k fixer uppers with $12-18k in taxes. And we even had some open houses where there would be a line outside waiting and selling agents requiring pre quals(which are worthless) and asking if we would be ready to make an over asking offer on the house today. If the answer was no, then they didn't want you to do a walk through.

So, we decided on Delaware- and we ran into some sellers that were asking $40-50k over their nearest comp and not willing to negotiate. It seems that these sellers either, paid too much themselves or did a home improvement and expect almost double their investment back. And then, you have someone like our sellers- they tried to play hardball - we had offered $70k under. House is only 10 years old. They came back with $40k under but we had to wave inspection. Which was odd- house is relatively new- and showed very well with nothing that could be obvious. So- that request actually made us question "what are they trying to hide?"
We came back that we would not wave inspection and split the difference on price- $55k under asking. Inspection did find a few things that would have cost us between $10-15k to fix...Sellers did the repairs and closed on the deal.
 
It is also amazing how much sellers/buyers differ in the same towns. We started our search to stay in NJ and started looking down in the Southern Beach areas but even found those to be $700k fixer uppers with $12-18k in taxes. And we even had some open houses where there would be a line outside waiting and selling agents requiring pre quals(which are worthless) and asking if we would be ready to make an over asking offer on the house today. If the answer was no, then they didn't want you to do a walk through.

So, we decided on Delaware- and we ran into some sellers that were asking $40-50k over their nearest comp and not willing to negotiate. It seems that these sellers either, paid too much themselves or did a home improvement and expect almost double their investment back. And then, you have someone like our sellers- they tried to play hardball - we had offered $70k under. House is only 10 years old. They came back with $40k under but we had to wave inspection. Which was odd- house is relatively new- and showed very well with nothing that could be obvious. So- that request actually made us question "what are they trying to hide?"
We came back that we would not wave inspection and split the difference on price- $55k under asking. Inspection did find a few things that would have cost us between $10-15k to fix...Sellers did the repairs and closed on the deal.
what town we are considering Delaware ?
 
There will be no recession in real estate, particularly in metro’s like Alexandria right next to DC.

I’m extremely familiar with this area and work in new home construction. Don’t have anything in Alexandria personally but I can help.

Pricing very well may increase some as there’s still not enough inventory and the oldest baby boomer is still just 78, but I don’t expect much movement with rates remaining where they are and not likely to come down in any significant way this year.

Good luck!
When the recession hits and it very likely will with the inverted bond yield curve rearing its head again recently (not a given, but a strong indicator), combined with Trump's employment cuts, tariffs, and general chaos, we'll see those interest rates drop back down, but I would also expect to see housing prices drop at least some as demand will likely drop (even if inventory isn't much higher). We'll see of course.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/fed...ssion-indicator-is-flashing-danger-again.html
 
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I was early to call the correction but think affordability has to be an issue. WFH is over. The retirement markets like beach towns will get hit first.

Definitely not over. I know of many other people fully remote. And I know many people "RTO" who have done no such thing.

Yes, the coming recession will give certain companies what they view as a "right" to bully their employees in a way they couldn't before...but there's still enough places willing to welcome people back.

And when you have a lot of places truly hybrid to go to NYC or Philly from DTS 2x a week, the demand isn't going to drop too hard...though hopefully just hard enough for me to land my second place lol.
 
what town we are considering Delaware ?
We moved to Middletown...good news, bad news. The good is that it is only 20 minutes off the DE Mem bridge so very close to NJ. Also, one of the more NJ feeling areas and if you have school aged kids- best schools in the state.
Bad news, while still have very low property taxes compared to NJ, New Castle County/Middletown, have the highest property tax in the state.
And it is f-ing windy every single day! lol
 
The home I bought on LBI in December of 2020 is now worth double. Though it’s probably not sustainable, I think there’s a lot of pent up demand that will buy any dip here
I have no data on this but I've wondered if the pandemic introduced folks that didn't consider LBI before to how great a place it is. Remember there was a time early covid when international travel was either banned or a mess or both. If that's the case it explains some of the price increase- a whole new set of buyers/renters than before who were 'forced' into 'local' vacations and kept it going. Just a theory.
 
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When the recession hits and it very likely will with the inverted bond yield curve rearing its head again recently (not a given, but a strong indicator), combined with Trump's employment cuts, tariffs, and general chaos, we'll see those interest rates drop back down, but I would also expect to see housing prices drop at least some as demand will likely drop (even if inventory isn't much higher). We'll see of course.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/fed...ssion-indicator-is-flashing-danger-again.html
If inventory wasn’t still historically low I’d agree. We’ve seen some shift 100% since orange man’s taken over however nothing that’s really changed much about the market.

Really as rates drop (which I agree an economic recession looks inevitable at this point with moron running the country) I do expect buyers will still come out in force. I don’t see the prices increasing by much but I don’t see them really dropping in any significant way, with rates dropping people are simply buying a payment and rates dropping will open up more folks DTI and ability to buy

Who knows though really, every day with this administration the tides turn so it’s really nothing more than an educated guess
 
I have no data on this but I've wondered if the pandemic introduced folks that didn't consider LBI before to how great a place it is. Remember there was a time early covid when international travel was either banned or a mess or both. If that's the case it explains some of the price increase- a whole new set of buyers/renters than before who were 'forced' into 'local' vacations and kept it going. Just a theory.
It happened with the money folk with regard to the more established high-end areas along the ocean, NJ and LI.

Because of a lot of the reasons you mentioned.
 
We moved to Middletown...good news, bad news. The good is that it is only 20 minutes off the DE Mem bridge so very close to NJ. Also, one of the more NJ feeling areas and if you have school aged kids- best schools in the state.
Bad news, while still have very low property taxes compared to NJ, New Castle County/Middletown, have the highest property tax in the state.
And it is f-ing windy every single day! lol
If you're getting your money's worth...good schools, paid fire/EMS (for response times) and decent DPW folks who do the job, not bad.
 
If you're getting your money's worth...good schools, paid fire/EMS (for response times) and decent DPW folks who do the job, not bad.
my youngest child is 31 so schools matter nothing to me. lol The good thing is, when they were school age, we were in Mahwah. And our public schools kicked some serious ass...

The biggest reason for the Middletown tax is that it really is so close to NJ and not a dump. It does have good schools and a ton of younger families moving in. Because of that- they are building new schools non stop.

The good thing is- once I hit 65- I start applying for reduced school tax...
 
my youngest child is 31 so schools matter nothing to me. lol The good thing is, when they were school age, we were in Mahwah. *And our public schools kicked some serious ass...

The biggest reason for the Middletown tax is that it really is so close to NJ and not a dump. It does have good schools ^and a ton of younger families moving in. Because of that- they are building new schools non stop.

+The good thing is- once I hit 65- I start applying for reduced school tax...
Usually, but not always, * good schools...good town...^ good place to live...good resale.

+ WIN/WIN. šŸ™‚
 
Out of consensus call by me. Essex Fells and Roseland in 5 years are gonna be known as 2 of the best commuter towns in NJ. Brick church train station is 10 minutes away and just built a 6 story parking deck $99/month to park and 26 minutes direct to penn station. Game changer.

Great schools with tremendous public school athletics too
 
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