OT: Winter Weather Advisories Up for Possible Freezing Rain Tonight into early Saturday for Areas NW of 95

[RU848789]

Winter Weather Advisories up NW of 95 for freezing rain potential overnight (mostly from about 11 pm to 7 am), with a chance of a light glaze for Somerset, Hunterdon, Upper Bucks and for Western Union, Western Essex, Passaic, Bergen and the lower Hudson Valley and the chance of up to 0.1" of ice accretion for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, Sussex, Warren, Morris, Orange, Putnam and the Catskills. No advisories are up for the 95 corridor, but the NW/hilly sections of those counties could also see a light glaze; SE of 95 to the coast should be all rain.

Note that model variability is large even at this late stage, so uncertainty on the forecast is high, as freezing rain is very difficult to forecast accurately, so the NWS usually errs on the conservative side, given how dangerous freezing rain can be - there might be very little freezing rain outside of the coldest NW areas (like the Poconos, Sussex and the Catskills), but better safe than sorry, IMO.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

 

[RUJMM78]

I always appreciate your advisory weather reports because warnings are better than being surprised.

 

[RU848789]

I always appreciate your advisory weather reports because warnings are better than being surprised.

Thanks!

 

[RUPete]

Yes - what @RUJMM78 said. Freezing rain can be a real problem and people may not be paying attention to forecasts as much during the holidays.

 

[RU848789]

This graphic shows the probability of getting >0.01" of freezing rain (ice accretion), which doesn't sound like much, but which is enough to make things pretty slippery. The graphic shows that the probability is fairly low outside of Sussex/Warren/W. Passaic in NJ, but given the risk of being wrong, I'm sure that's why Morris/Hunterdon/Somerset/Bergen and western Essex/Union were added to the advisory. Temps are already at or slightly below 32F just NW of 95 and even along 95 at some points, so if a bit of precip moves in before temps start to rise, the freezing rain risk could be realized.

 

[Knight Shift]

This graphic shows the probability of getting >0.01" of freezing rain (ice accretion), which doesn't sound like much, but which is enough to make things pretty slippery. The graphic shows that the probability is fairly low outside of Sussex/Warren/W. Passaic in NJ, but given the risk of being wrong, I'm sure that's why Morris/Hunterdon/Somerset/Bergen and western Essex/Union were added to the advisory. Temps are already at or slightly below 32F just NW of 95 and even along 95 at some points, so if a bit of precip moves in before temps start to rise, the freezing rain risk could be realized.

Looks to be toasty warm on Sunday (58 down in Monmouth). Landing tomorrow at midnight, should be no problem for us.