Poll: OOC Opponents
- Thread starter fluoxetine
- Start date
35% chance none make it
20% chance both Miami and Wake
25% chance just Miami
10% chance just Wake
10% chance of all other permutations combined
20% chance both Miami and Wake
25% chance just Miami
10% chance just Wake
10% chance of all other permutations combined
I think wake will make it if the British guy is ok. Miami for sure. Would be surprised if shu made it.
Miami yes. Hall no. WF bubble
I just looked at Wake’s schedule again and their chances look better than I first thought. @ Wisky is a monster win and the Duke win will look very good on selection day too. If they get a few more wins over field teams (even at home) and the total loss count is 13 or less - they’ll have a good chance (computer numbers from close wins over bad teams only matter to a point).
I think their odds at accomplishing 10-8 or better the rest of the way are actually quite good. UofL, Syracuse, FSU, BC and even ND stink. That’s 7 of their games. They also get Clemson, GT and NC State at home. Obviously, some of these would be landmine losses. But they also get chances at home vs. VTech, Virginia and UNC. I’m optimistic they can find 10 wins in those games - and that’s penciling @UNC, @ Duke, @ Miami, @ NC State and @ Pitt into the loss column.
I think their odds at accomplishing 10-8 or better the rest of the way are actually quite good. UofL, Syracuse, FSU, BC and even ND stink. That’s 7 of their games. They also get Clemson, GT and NC State at home. Obviously, some of these would be landmine losses. But they also get chances at home vs. VTech, Virginia and UNC. I’m optimistic they can find 10 wins in those games - and that’s penciling @UNC, @ Duke, @ Miami, @ NC State and @ Pitt into the loss column.
They didn’t have a road win at Wisconsin. And I don’t think they beat Duke. Those wins change everything.
They already lost to Loyola Marymount and the 20 point loss at Clemson may be a signal of what happens on the road in league play. Last year they had very few quality wins but avoided bad losses but the sos was trash. Lets see how it plays out but I see a very up and down season for them
Duke isnt a top 5 team this year so you have to judge that win differently than you normal would
@PSAL_Hoops I think maybe you underestimate the weakness of the ACC this year. Wake's remaining schedule has 8 Q1 games, 1 Q2, 5 Q3, and 4 Q4. And this is all conference games.
IMO Wake would need to go ~12-6 the rest of the way to be on the correct side of the bubble which would put them at 21-10 (13-7). Clearly this is not impossible but their current T-Rank projection is 18-13 (10-10).
I’m probably underestimating the landmine risk more than anything else. They have a lot of games remaining where it would hurt them a lot to lose. UofL, BC, Syracuse, FSU and ND at home are must win games. Losing any of those would be a major blow. If they win those and beat 2+ more NCAA teams (UNC, Duke, VTech or Virginia) - they would at least be in the mix with 10+ more wins.
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I’m expecting Duke to move up by beating up on a weak conference. The point margin on the Clemson loss hurts their computer numbers but in the end - who you beat and lose tends to matter more than the point margin. That’ll be a Q2 loss at worst.
Loyola Maramont is 10-4. Not a great loss but on a neutral floor it’s not eye popping if they do what they need to vs. BC, UofL, Syracuse and FSU. Go 6-0 and pick up 2 more road wins along the way - albeit against awful teams.
I get Fluox point - winning those and sweeping ND and NC State to get to 10-8 wouldn’t get the job done. Winning those and at Pitt to get to 11-7 probably wouldn’t either. The combinations matter. To be in the mix - they need to find at least 2 wins vs UNC (2), UVA, VTech, Duke and Miami and avoid losses in the landmine games.
Yeah - that’s probably where I’m underestimating. Going perfect isn’t going to be easy with all those road games against ACC basement dwellers. UofL has to have more talent than the 346th NET in the country right? They are worse than every team on our schedule - CC is 340. Sheesh.
True - but it’s also true that high majors usually don’t have as many landmines to navigate in conference play. The blended average NET of our non-conference opponents is going to turn out to be better than the blended average NET of the bottom 3rd of their conference. And probably not just a little better. Considering how we schedule - that’s insane.
That's true. More opportunity for wins, but gotta take care of business or it'll bite you
