Projected Minutes Distribution/Roster

[Eagleton96]

Now that the roster is coming into focus, and we have a lot of good players, let's play the Project the Minutes Distribution Game

To make it easy, and since Pike indicated that he is trying to play "positionless" basketball with a lot of interchangeable players, let's lump the 1-2 position and 3-4 positions together.

Also, make your projections to be the average of the first 5 games.

Sample roster below with players organized by group and years of eligibility (I put 1 year for Ace and Dylan to be practical) in parentheses. Keep in mind, Jones and Derkack, even JWill, are guards but could easily play the 3. Also, some multi-year players may be willing to wait their turn as we lose a lot of one and done players in 2026:

1-2: Harper (1), Acuff (1), Jones/TBD (1/TBD), Williams (2), Derkack (2), Davis (3)
3-4: Bailey (1), Martini (1), Grant (4), Dortch (3)
5: TBD (1/TBD), Egbole (2), Sommerville (4)

So:

1-2, 80 mins:
3-4 80 mins:
5, 40 mins:

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Too much overlap with 1/2 or 2/3 or even 3/4.......

I'll make assumption Jones actually comes here.
1 JWill 26 JaMike 14
2 Harper 29 Acuff 11
3 Dercack 20 Jones 20
4 Ace 20 Martini 20
5 Ogobole 12 Sommerville 18 Ace 10

Do we get a center?
Can Ace play minutes at 5?
No clue Dercack Jones Acuff who wins minutes
What if Dortch or Grant earn minutes?
Does/would Pike actually make 2 units of 4 that play together (1 thru 4)...example
Jwill Harper Dercack Ace starts
JaMike Acuff Jones Martini come in as a unit

 

[Eagleton96]

Too much overlap with 1/2 or 2/3 or even 3/4.......

I'll make assumption Jones actually comes here.
1 JWill 26 JaMike 14
2 Harper 29 Acuff 11
3 Dercack 20 Jones 20
4 Ace 20 Martini 20
5 Ogobole 12 Sommerville 18 Ace 10

Do we get a center?
Can Ace play minutes at 5?
No clue Dercack Jones Acuff who wins minutes
What if Dortch or Grant earn minutes?
Does/would Pike actually make 2 units of 4 that play together (1 thru 4)...example
Jwill Harper Dercack Ace starts
JaMike Acuff Jones Martini come in as a unit

I think you have to assume there will be a portal center that gets 20 minutes, give or take. And Ogbole goes way down.

 

[NickRU714]

Hot take: Jones (or another transfer who is an established 3pt shooter) will be starting/closing games and be 3rd in MPG by the end of the season.
Surpassing JWill, Acuff, Davis on the depth chart.

Note: Not including Center position

 

[seansherm]

Hot take: Jones (or another transfer who is an established 3pt shooter) will be starting/closing games and be 3rd in MPG by the end of the season.
Surpassing JWill, Acuff, Davis on the depth chart.

Note: Not including Center position

It could be Acuff that does the same.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I have tried to figure this out

Don’t .

Need to see the last 2 pieces …and then can guess , and even then , it’s going to be a guess

 

[Groz]

Too much overlap with 1/2 or 2/3 or even 3/4.......

I'll make assumption Jones actually comes here.
1 JWill 26 JaMike 14
2 Harper 29 Acuff 11
3 Dercack 20 Jones 20
4 Ace 20 Martini 20
5 Ogobole 12 Sommerville 18 Ace 10

Do we get a center?
Can Ace play minutes at 5?
No clue Dercack Jones Acuff who wins minutes
What if Dortch or Grant earn minutes?
Does/would Pike actually make 2 units of 4 that play together (1 thru 4)...example
Jwill Harper Dercack Ace starts
JaMike Acuff Jones Martini come in as a unit

We have this same argument almost every year. Why is it that the stars of 90% of college teams can play 33-35 minutes per game in most of their big games, but you always want and have our guys only playing 3/4 of a game?

Unless there are blowouts, I want our guys playing 34-35 minutes per game. These guys can play 4 AAU games in a day, but have to rest in college? Zach Edey played 39 minutes in the final.....

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[ancienthooper]

Yes, I know it’s a discussion forum. I’m sorry (not really), but I find the minutes and starters threads to be tedious and unimportant. So I do a quick scroll just to see if I’m alone, and I guess it’s pretty much me.

 

[Big East Beast]

Too much overlap with 1/2 or 2/3 or even 3/4.......

I'll make assumption Jones actually comes here.
1 JWill 26 JaMike 14
2 Harper 29 Acuff 11
3 Dercack 20 Jones 20
4 Ace 20 Martini 20
5 Ogobole 12 Sommerville 18 Ace 10

Do we get a center?
Can Ace play minutes at 5?
No clue Dercack Jones Acuff who wins minutes
What if Dortch or Grant earn minutes?
Does/would Pike actually make 2 units of 4 that play together (1 thru 4)...example
Jwill Harper Dercack Ace starts
JaMike Acuff Jones Martini come in as a unit

Why would you bother bringing in arguably the #1 3-man in the country and play him out of position 100% of the time at the 4/5?

So that Dercack and Jones get quality minutes?

That’s not the way this works.

Why would you bring in the #1 lead guard and not play him any minutes at the PG position?

To protect minutes for Williams and create a role for Davis?

This is a new year. They need to prove themselves again.

Williams, Acuff, Dercack, Jones and Davis are all nice players.

But they were all put in positions where they forced the issue at times in order to prove themselves.

Now they have the opportunity to play in a major conference alongside two projected NBA lottery picks.

Who are being paid a lot of money to show their stuff.

We dont know how things will play out. We’ve seen guys who struggle with the adjustment to college, don’t fulfill their potential and the program is bigger than any individuals.

But just because Ace is 6’9” or 6’10” doesn’t mean you force him into the post.

We saw how limited this approach was when we had players like Inman and Lamizana and how the game has changed. It’s not only frustrating schematically, but psychologically a player who doesn’t want to play in the post and wants to be Kevin Durant will be very very unhappy if you make him guard Myles Johnson let alone getting dunked on by the Cliff, Hunter Dickinson and Zack Edey’s of the world.

You are weakening two positions by doing that.

There will be fierce competition for minutes between these new guards. Someone will end up like Fernandes or Kiss or Mathis in the end:

Not good enough.

That’s what they are all signing up for.

Dortch, Grant and a transfer big man will be going through a similar process. Their minutes as a unit will be largely dictated based on matchups.

How quickly they develop the ability to defend, crash the boards and make plays around the rim at the speed of the college level will be everything in terms of individual playing time.

You don’t need to be 235 pounds like Martini, but there’s very different footwork and skills involved and 6’8” and wiry is different from 6’5” and wiry when it comes down to it. Height matters in basketball.

In any case, I love having big guards who will help rebound as a team. I love the tenacious, toughness persona that the transfers seem to be bringing to the roster.

But mostly I love the idea that Harper and Bailey are truly gifted offensively and if they live up to the hype no one on the team will be in a position to complain. While if they struggle, we have guys who we know can defend and put the ball in the hoop.

May the best men win.

 

[Eagleton96]

Yes, I know it’s a discussion forum. I’m sorry (not really), but I find the minutes and starters threads to be tedious and unimportant. So I do a quick scroll just to see if I’m alone, and I guess it’s pretty much me.

Ha. Not a lot of responses to this thread, so it sounds like you’re not alone.

For me, I think it’s an interesting topic since we have a lot of guys right now. Almost all new. And an unprecedented number of them are starter quality. And there’s been a lot of discussion on the board about the fact that we have potentially too many of one kind of player… perimeter players that mostly score at the rim. So I think it’s an interesting conversation right now.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Why would you bring in the #1 lead guard and not play him any minutes at the PG position?

To protect minutes for Williams and create a role for Davis?

I don’t know. Perhaps you should ask Don Bosco’s coach why he chose to play a Howard bound guard at the point instead of Dylan? Maybe he’s more explosive as a 2.

 

[RUDivision]

Now that the roster is coming into focus, and we have a lot of good players, let's play the Project the Minutes Distribution Game

To make it easy, and since Pike indicated that he is trying to play "positionless" basketball with a lot of interchangeable players, let's lump the 1-2 position and 3-4 positions together.

Also, make your projections to be the average of the first 5 games.

Sample roster below with players organized by group and years of eligibility (I put 1 year for Ace and Dylan to be practical) in parentheses. Keep in mind, Jones and Derkack, even JWill, are guards but could easily play the 3. Also, some multi-year players may be willing to wait their turn as we lose a lot of one and done players in 2026:

1-2: Harper (1), Acuff (1), Jones/TBD (1/TBD), Williams (2), Derkack (2), Davis (3)
3-4: Bailey (1), Martini (1), Grant (4), Dortch (3)
5: TBD (1/TBD), Egbole (2), Sommerville (4)

So:

1-2, 80 mins:
3-4 80 mins:
5, 40 mins:

Using your definition of 1-2 3-4 5
Lock starters
1-2 Dylan
3-4 Ace
Competing for 25 + min
1-2 Willams Acuff Derkack Jones
3-4 Martini Grant Dortch
5. Ogbole Transfer Center Somerville

Once roster complete we can have a little more clarity but only 2 locks are Dylan and Ace.

 

[RUDivision]

I don’t know. Perhaps you should ask Don Bosco’s coach why he chose to play a Howard bound guard at the point instead of Dylan? Maybe he’s more explosive as a 2.

No Mrs Harper wanted Dylan more time at the 2 to expand his game and develop shooting from that role. It’s HS so your talent pool is limited and Dylan is big enough and good enough to play 1-3 . To get there best lineup in and allow Dylan to work on aspects of his game he payed the 2. He is by far the best PG/Decision maker we have next year

 

[seansherm]

I don’t know. Perhaps you should ask Don Bosco’s coach why he chose to play a Howard bound guard at the point instead of Dylan? Maybe he’s more explosive as a 2.

Maybe the other kid couldn't play the 2, but a high-school coach needs to get his best 5 on the court?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We have this same argument almost every year. Why is it that the stars of 90% of college teams can play 33-35 minutes per game in most of their big games, but you always want and have our guys only playing 3/4 of a game?

Unless there are blowouts, I want our guys playing 34-35 minutes per game. These guys can play 4 AAU games in a day, but have to rest in college? Zach Edey played 39 minutes in the final.....

Best of Luck,
Groz

What happened to Edey in the finals? He completely ran out of gas. He was toast by the 2nd half.

 

[Big East Beast]

I don’t know. Perhaps you should ask Don Bosco’s coach why he chose to play a Howard bound guard at the point instead of Dylan? Maybe he’s more explosive as a 2.

I don’t look to high school to think about how players are going to compete to get to the Final Four.

That’s my dream and the ambition for his RU career and this team.

His father played PG alongside Michael Jordan and Pippen and Kobe Bryant.

He won 5 NBA titles.

These guys are coming here to win.

How can anyone think Dylan won’t play significant time running the offense is beyond me.

From what I’ve seen of him and read of his scouting reports, his game isn’t as an elite scorer as much as he’s a consistently elite all around player and his future as a pro is likely PG.

The question people don’t seem to be considering is how much Dylan’s role and new additions will impact Williams’ role. He’s not a good shooter. Our best lineup may be Dylan at 1, Acuff at SG and Bailey at 3. If you have three guys who can put up 15-20/game, and defend reasonably well, you will be elite and can play with anyone.

I love love love Williams’ toughness, downhill style and leadership, but after his sizzling start he came back to earth a bit.

We had a leadership and competency vacuum last year and were in awe in comparison to Simpson/Davis/Fernandes who were all too small and not talented enough.

We don’t need much offensive output from post players like Martini or Sommerville at 4/5 down low.

They are Horace Grant and Bill Cartwright.

We don’t need Shaq.

At various points you may have Bailey play some 4 to get a 3rd guard in, depending on chemistry, matchups or hot hand.

Let’s go!

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

How can anyone think Dylan won’t play significant time running the offense is beyond me.

same reason Kobe and Jordan didnt

 

[RUDivision]

same reason Kobe and Jordan didnt

Don’t forget Kareem

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Don’t forget Kareem

Abdul Jabbar or Wright?

 

[seansherm]

What happened to Edey in the finals? He completely ran out of gas. He was toast by the 2nd half.

He got doubled every time he touched the ball in the second and he got zero help from his guards. He also guarded the one guy in the country that could bang with him, and I'd still disagree he was toast.

 

[RUDivision]

Abdul Jabbar or Wright?

Abdul Jabbar of course

 

[Mholinko]

Too much overlap with 1/2 or 2/3 or even 3/4.......

I'll make assumption Jones actually comes here.
1 JWill 26 JaMike 14
2 Harper 29 Acuff 11
3 Dercack 20 Jones 20
4 Ace 20 Martini 20
5 Ogobole 12 Sommerville 18 Ace 10

Do we get a center?
Can Ace play minutes at 5?
No clue Dercack Jones Acuff who wins minutes
What if Dortch or Grant earn minutes?
Does/would Pike actually make 2 units of 4 that play together (1 thru 4)...example
Jwill Harper Dercack Ace starts
JaMike Acuff Jones Martini come in as a unit

not everyone needs to play

this isnt rec cyo basketball

the top 20 teams in the country have guys sitting in spots 9-10-11-12-13 that are capable of getting minutes somewhere else and because they are on a team which is as good as it is dont see the floor as often they would elsewhere

ill say it again... your go to guys are going to play 30 minutes a game... they didnt come here not to play

these other guys coming in from the portal have all been told what they are signing up for and for the most part they have said the right things that they know they are here and willing to fill a role

its okay if not everyone plays every single game. there will be games where davis is called upon and other games where we need more of ogbole or martini or whoever

i think the one thing everyone is assuming that may not be true is the PT and role for jwill.. i am not convinced hes locked into anything or is any better of a player than Dercack, Acuff, Jones if we get him, etc

jwill after those first 4 games did not do enough for me to just annoint him as the running mate of harper and bailey

 

[Eagleton96]

not everyone needs to play

this isnt rec cyo basketball

the top 20 teams in the country have guys sitting in spots 9-10-11-12-13 that are capable of getting minutes somewhere else and because they are on a team which is as good as it is dont see the floor as often they would elsewhere

ill say it again... your go to guys are going to play 30 minutes a game... they didnt come here not to play

these other guys coming in from the portal have all been told what they are signing up for and for the most part they have said the right things that they know they are here and willing to fill a role

its okay if not everyone plays every single game. there will be games where davis is called upon and other games where we need more of ogbole or martini or whoever

i think the one thing everyone is assuming that may not be true is the PT and role for jwill.. i am not convinced hes locked into anything or is any better of a player than Dercack, Acuff, Jones if we get him, etc

jwill after those first 4 games did not do enough for me to just annoint him as the running mate of harper and bailey

Except for Dylan and Ace, we don't know who the go to guys are going to be. In fact, it seems we have a lot of interchangeable players - good and athletic tall guards that can play D. Better to have an all-star than two average players. But the way to maximize the advantage of two average players is to turn their intensity up to 11 and rotate them in to keep them fresh. The style of play matters.

 

[Mholinko]

Except for Dylan and Ace, we don't know who the go to guys are going to be. In fact, it seems have a lot of interchangeable players - good and athletic tall guards that can play D. Better to have an all-star than two average players. But the way to maximize the advantage of two average players is to turn their intensity up to 11 and rotate them in to keep them fresh. The style of play matters.

right

my point was i dont think minutes is going to be very set in stone for anyone not named Ace and Dylan

some games youll see jwill and dercack play 25+ minutes

other games you might see martini and acuff play 25+ minutes

i think guessing the rotation is fruitless this year in a good way

the rotation is ACE DYLAN play a lot and everyone else blends in on a game to game basis

 

[ancienthooper]

not everyone needs to play

this isnt rec cyo basketball

the top 20 teams in the country have guys sitting in spots 9-10-11-12-13 that are capable of getting minutes somewhere else and because they are on a team which is as good as it is dont see the floor as often they would elsewhere

ill say it again... your go to guys are going to play 30 minutes a game... they didnt come here not to play

these other guys coming in from the portal have all been told what they are signing up for and for the most part they have said the right things that they know they are here and willing to fill a role

its okay if not everyone plays every single game. there will be games where davis is called upon and other games where we need more of ogbole or martini or whoever

i think the one thing everyone is assuming that may not be true is the PT and role for jwill.. i am not convinced hes locked into anything or is any better of a player than Dercack, Acuff, Jones if we get him, etc

jwill after those first 4 games did not do enough for me to just annoint him as the running mate of harper and bailey

I like JWill's game and pro body, but agree with those comments. I think Acuff certainly and possibly Dercack will be right there with him in minutes, all of which is a good thing.

 

[Eagleton96]

I like JWill's game and pro body, but agree with those comments. I think Acuff certainly and possibly Dercack will be right there with him in minutes, all of which is a good thing.

Again, the way to utilize this problem is to turn the defensive intensity up to 11, crash the boards, and rotate in a lot of fresh interchangeable bodies.

 

[Mholinko]

Again, the way to utilize this problem is to turn the defensive intensity up to 11, crash the boards, and rotate in a lot of fresh interchangeable bodies.

agree but i think the excercise of trying to figure out minutes is fruitless in that case

two guys are going to play a lot every single game

the other 9-11 are going to play somewhere between 0-25 minutes a game and it will likely change each game

i think thats all that anybody can really say for sure until opening tip

 

[Eagleton96]

agree but i think the excercise of trying to figure out minutes is fruitless in that case

two guys are going to play a lot every single game

the other 9-11 are going to play somewhere between 0-25 minutes a game and it will likely change each game

i think thats all that anybody can really say for sure until opening tip

What prompted me to post the thread was the discussion that we had a logjam at the 1-3 positions. If you lay it out though, and assume what you are saying is true, then there are plenty of minutes to go around. That was the point.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

jwill after those first 4 games did not do enough for me to just annoint him as the running mate of harper and bailey

17-18 year old Dylan Harper might not also be good enough to be slotted 30 minutes either.

 

[Mholinko]

17-18 year old Dylan Harper might not also be good enough to be slotted 30 minutes either.

super quick google search at the latest nba mock drafts... every freshmen who is slotted in the top 15 picks averaged at least 27 minutes per game with the exception of rob dillingham who averaged 24 minutes

so if harper fancies himself as a lottery pick then hes going to be averaging pretty damn close to 30 minutes a game

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Except for Dylan and Ace, we don't know who the go to guys are going to be. In fact, it seems we have a lot of interchangeable players - good and athletic tall guards that can play D. Better to have an all-star than two average players. But the way to maximize the advantage of two average players is to turn their intensity up to 11 and rotate them in to keep them fresh. The style of play matters.

We don't know that Dylan and Ace are going to be go to guys. Very likely, but not definite. Especially with Ace.

This doesn't appear the Rutgers of the last 3 years. We appear on paper to have a lot of guys that play. 21-22 year olds have an advantage over 17-18 year olds.

 

[Scangg]

I'd group it as guards 1-3, wings 4, center 5

The team is going to be very deep if we land Jones and a good 5. There will be multiple players unhappy with their roles not getting minutes. There isn't going to be a 13 man rotation

Ogbole / loser of Dortch/Grant battle (cant see both really playing unless transfers bust / injuries) are probably 12 and 13... that's still 11 which is too many to be in a rotation

If either of Grant or Dortch forces their way into the rotation then that moves a transfer down the rotation

Acuff, Derkack, Jones... odds all 3 are successful? Probably low. Not all transfers work out so it's likely one of the 3 gets the short end of the stick

Does Davis make a sophomore jump or pull a Simpson? His offensive development will play a big part to where he fits

Good news is we have serious depth (on paper) in the unfortunate case of injuries

 

[Eagleton96]

I think it's also worth noting that with all of the hand wringing about not having shooters:

Ace Bailey: Bailey is shooting 53.5 percent from the field, 42.9 percent from 3-point range and 89.7 percent from the free throw line for McEachern. https://www.maxpreps.com/news/fAzkd...ps-national-player-of-the-year-watch-list.htm

Dylan Harper: I couldn't find any cumulative shooting percentage stats on him. But from 3 he shot 25% at FIBA in June. 36% at Peach Jam in July, and 40% at the McDonalds game a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, Martini is at 38%. And there is every reason to be encouraged that Acuff will be at least mid 30s in his new role here and that we have another shooter still in the portal.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

super quick google search at the latest nba mock drafts... every freshmen who is slotted in the top 15 picks averaged at least 27 minutes per game with the exception of rob dillingham who averaged 24 minutes

so if harper fancies himself as a lottery pick then hes going to be averaging pretty damn close to 30 minutes a game

That's because they ended up good. How did the Mock draft in 4/2023 guys do,

Rivals #2 Aaron Bradshaw didn't play 30
Rivals #3 Justin Edwards didn't play 30
4 and 5 didn't play college
Rivals #6 DJ Wagner didn't play 30
Rivals #7 Cody Williams was close but was hurt or else he would have
Rivals #8 Cadeau didn't
Rivals #9 Mgbako was close but didnt
Rivals #10 Castle didn't but was close

Only 1 of Rivals Top 10 avergaed 30 MPG

 

[Mholinko]

That's because they ended up good. How did the Mock draft in 4/2023 guys do,

Rivals #2 Aaron Bradshaw didn't play 30
Rivals #3 Justin Edwards didn't play 30
4 and 5 didn't play college
Rivals #6 DJ Wagner didn't play 30
Rivals #7 Cody Williams was close but was hurt or else he would have
Rivals #8 Cadeau didn't
Rivals #9 Mgbako was close but didnt
Rivals #10 Castle didn't but was close

Only 1 of Rivals Top 10 avergaed 30 MPG

youre choosing the stat that suits your argument... do you want him to not play 30 min because you want him to fail?

i looked up the nba mock draft and picked the top 10 freshmen off the board all of which played significant minutes... this thread is assuming harper and bailey turn out to be that good

my argument is IF bailey and harper are as good as we hope they are they WILL be 30 mpg guys

if they are not then we arent going to be very good next year and this thread is pointless

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

My point is that we are expecting way too much out of both of these guys and there is a HUGE difference between being potential NBA stars and helping a team right now win B1G games.

We appear to have capable guys on this roster that may be better college players than harper and/or Ace. I feel pretty comfortable guessing JWill is a better B1G point guard than Dylan this year.

In addition there is a HUGE difference being on a NBA mock draft list as a HS senior and then 1 year later being on it at the end of your freshman year in college.

 

[Scangg]

Does it really matter if Ace and Dylan play 27 or 30 a game? They will play high 20s minimum

 

[Eagleton96]

Does it really matter if Ace and Dylan play 27 or 30 a game? They will play high 20s minimum

Agree. Also, there are so many variables. Freshmen hit a wall right? So does it make sense to limit minutes a little? Who knows. That's why you have a coach making decisions in real time, reacting to all the crazy things that happen as the seasons progresses.

 

[Mholinko]

Does it really matter if Ace and Dylan play 27 or 30 a game? They will play high 20s minimum

to me no... to the creator of this thread and everyone making a spreadsheet about minutes yes

i told you the only thing any of us can say for sure is those two will play a lot and the rest will fall into place

the coaching staff are all more knowledgeable about not only their team, but basketball in general and will make decisions based on those facts

 

[Eagleton96]

to me no... to the creator of this thread and everyone making a spreadsheet about minutes yes

i told you the only thing any of us can say for sure is those two will play a lot and the rest will fall into place

the coaching staff are all more knowledgeable about not only their team, but basketball in general and will make decisions based on those facts

It doesn’t matter to me. I think the fun and value is trying to get a feel for how the players will mesh as a team. Do we have a logjam at the 1-3 spots or not etc.