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Random Trends, Opinions, and Observations

kcg88

Heisman Winner
Aug 11, 2017
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Ron Harper is shooting 6-16 on three-pointers over the last three games, but he's not getting the points inside (just 3-12 over the last five games, though he did get five free throws against OSU). You like to see the three start to come around but he can't settle in as a jump shooter.

Peter Kiss is getting a bit of a bad rap IMO. No, it doesn't look like he'll be able to shoulder a huge load offensively. But in the four Big Ten games he's played in, he's shot 6-17 (35%) from 3 and 6-14 inside. It's not a lot but it's something. He also doesn't turn it over much... Obviously with the kind of game he plays he SHOULDN'T be turning it over, but neither should Issa and Kiss has a better TO rate than Thiam.

Caleb McConnell has been impressive and has definitely earned more playing time. His ability to put the ball in the basket is something we need. But like Geo he's not really a true PG. 4 assists to 6 turnovers in five conference games. At this point it seems like we're just going to need to wait for Mulcahy (and Young, although I have questions about him at PG) to run the show. However, the experience that Caleb (and Geo) are getting this year will turn out to be important. Offenses just run better when multiple players on the floor can handle the ball.

Shaq Carter has been our MVP in conference play, which is not a sentence I expected to type. But he converts at the basket, shoots free throws reasonably well for a big man, and is a force on the offensive boards. Aside from the Minnesota game he hasn't really been too foul-prone, and he's already dealt with Happ, Wesson, Murphy, and Maryland's big guys. When we play teams like Illinois and Penn State, who are both very poor at defending the rim, we need to be giving Carter a lot of touches.

One trend that I like is that guys are getting better. McConnell and Carter along with Montez Mathis and Myles Johnson have all played better against better competition. I like that guys are rising to the occasion and I think it speaks well to our coaching staff. On the flip side, Baker and (before he got hurt) Omoruyi were playing significantly worse in conference play than they had in the non-conference, that's kind of an enigma. And considering that they use up the bulk of our possessions, it's something that needs to be figured out.

Last year in conference play we scored an abysmal .87 points per possession, worst in the conference by a mile (Minnesota at .98 was next-worse). We allowed 1.05 points per possession, 9th in the conference.

So far this year our offense is up to .98 points per possession, while our defense is at the bottom of the league at 1.12 points allowed. This kind of change is almost exactly what I thought would happen, though it doesn't always "feel" like this is the case. But it's happening. Our offense is looking better while the defense is worse, not unexpected with a bunch of youngsters playing. Mixing in zone helps but there needs to be some more adjustments made defensively.
 
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Once we put the D together and get it and rebounding into Pikiell shape, watch out. May take a year or two.
 
Good observations. A lot to like in the development of this team. Pike knows what he is doing.
 
I like what I see from the big men. The silver lining of EO’s injury may be that there are more minutes for them to develop a stronger post rotation. If he’s back in a month, we could be dangerous in Feb.
 
Northwestern, Illinois, and Penn State are a combined 1-16 in the Big Ten, and the 1 was Northwestern beating Illinois. We play five games against those three (two against NW/PSU, one at Illinois).

Those five games will determine our finish. Need to get at least 2 wins there to avoid the basement.
 
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Let me add a nugget.

Sample size still not huge
offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. these numbers represent what percent of misses the player rebounded.

Bigs
Eugene 8.5% 21.0%
Carter 14.0% 14.6%
Shaq D 13.9% 17.5%
Myles 17.1% 18.2%

Smalls
Baker .2% 9.5%
Kiss 3.9% 8.5%
Harper 3.2% 11.7%\
Montez 3.3% 11.6%
Caleb 3.7% 13.5%
issa 3.4% 12.9%

Last year
Corey 1.5% 12.9%
Freeman 10.1% 21.7%
Duke 10.3% 16.3%
Mike 7.6% 11.6%
 
Northwestern, Illinois, and Penn State are a combined 1-16 in the Big Ten, and the 1 was Northwestern beating Illinois. We play five games against those three (two against NW/PSU, one at Illinois).

Those five games will determine our finish. Need to get at least 2 wins there to avoid the basement.
would be nicer to get 4 out of 5
 
I am admittedly perplexed that Harper and Kiss have virtually identical shooting stats if not Kiss better, but it’s okay with Harper but Kiss is bad.
 
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Ron Harper is shooting 6-16 on three-pointers over the last three games, but he's not getting the points inside (just 3-12 over the last five games, though he did get five free throws against OSU). You like to see the three start to come around but he can't settle in as a jump shooter.

Peter Kiss is getting a bit of a bad rap IMO. No, it doesn't look like he'll be able to shoulder a huge load offensively. But in the four Big Ten games he's played in, he's shot 6-17 (35%) from 3 and 6-14 inside. It's not a lot but it's something. He also doesn't turn it over much... Obviously with the kind of game he plays he SHOULDN'T be turning it over, but neither should Issa and Kiss has a better TO rate than Thiam.

Caleb McConnell has been impressive and has definitely earned more playing time. His ability to put the ball in the basket is something we need. But like Geo he's not really a true PG. 4 assists to 6 turnovers in five conference games. At this point it seems like we're just going to need to wait for Mulcahy (and Young, although I have questions about him at PG) to run the show. However, the experience that Caleb (and Geo) are getting this year will turn out to be important. Offenses just run better when multiple players on the floor can handle the ball.

Shaq Carter has been our MVP in conference play, which is not a sentence I expected to type. But he converts at the basket, shoots free throws reasonably well for a big man, and is a force on the offensive boards. Aside from the Minnesota game he hasn't really been too foul-prone, and he's already dealt with Happ, Wesson, Murphy, and Maryland's big guys. When we play teams like Illinois and Penn State, who are both very poor at defending the rim, we need to be giving Carter a lot of touches.

One trend that I like is that guys are getting better. McConnell and Carter along with Montez Mathis and Myles Johnson have all played better against better competition. I like that guys are rising to the occasion and I think it speaks well to our coaching staff. On the flip side, Baker and (before he got hurt) Omoruyi were playing significantly worse in conference play than they had in the non-conference, that's kind of an enigma. And considering that they use up the bulk of our possessions, it's something that needs to be figured out.

Last year in conference play we scored an abysmal .87 points per possession, worst in the conference by a mile (Minnesota at .98 was next-worse). We allowed 1.05 points per possession, 9th in the conference.

So far this year our offense is up to .98 points per possession, while our defense is at the bottom of the league at 1.12 points allowed. This kind of change is almost exactly what I thought would happen, though it doesn't always "feel" like this is the case. But it's happening. Our offense is looking better while the defense is worse, not unexpected with a bunch of youngsters playing. Mixing in zone helps but there needs to be some more adjustments made defensively.
Interesting thoughts regarding the newcomers .
Harper, I really am not seeing his great three point shooting and maybe we will not see it until next year, but he has to fake the three and drive to the hole. He can dribble in space , should be able to finish and is a decent free throw shooter. An extra 5 points from the line is huge for us. His defense has improved and I think he can rebound a lot more.

Kiss is not getting a bad rap. We were expecting him to shoot 35-40 % from three per the Coach’s preview. He is missising wide open threes. He has become almost a liability on offense. He has a lousy handle and does not drive or finish at the rim for a guy with supposedly a 38 inch vertical. His defense has not been stellar so I far as I have seen , and his total lack of consistency is the most damning. He should not be scoring 16 against Seton Hall and nothing against 5 other teams.

Caleb has been more than a pleasant surprise. From the first game, where he looked like a deer in the headlights, he has become a reliable passer, defender, and shooter. In fact , he should be running the point over Geo really get now. Geo is being asked to do too much by the Coach. If Coach plays them both together , Caleb should be running the offense , which theoretically should take some stress off of Geo, and maybe we can get the consistency of 13-18 points a night out to f him. Caleb can beat his man and his height allows him to perfect the mid range jumper . I want him on the court more minutes not less.

I am going to lump Carter and Myles Johnson together as I think Coach has finally decided to pound the ball down low and both of these guys have shown they have moves and can finish down low. They can be even better, with a bunch of easy misses but Myles being a better passer, should get plenty of touches and hopefully one of our 5 guys that were supposedly three point shooters , will be on the receiving end of a pass that finds them wide open and they can finally make the defense pay. I love what both are giving us and Myles shot blocking should also improve. Great two recruits by Coach.

Montez, is just touching the service but I love it when he glides in for a rebound and then leads a push or fast break. He should be doing that every opportunity. His defense is really improved and his quickness will lead to more steals down the road. Also love his toughness and he takes no shit. Since Rashod Kent we have not had a player like that. Absolutely love this 4 star recruit and expect great things from him on both sides of the ball the rest of the conference season.

Finally , glad our offensive efficiency is better , and more pushing the ball will improve that further. I expect our defensive efficiency will improve as Montez, Caleb and Myles will improve appreciably the rest of the way.
 
I am admittedly perplexed that Harper and Kiss have virtually identical shooting stats if not Kiss better, but it’s okay with Harper but Kiss is bad.

Harper does some many more other things than Kiss, that is why. Kiss has trouble dribbling. Hope I never see another fake alley oop jump from Kiss, have no idea why anyone would do that.
 
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