Flood was actually a serviceable game day coach. He generally won and lost games that he should have. Unfortunately he couldn't recruit, academics declined, literally won the Fulmer Cup 2015 (rating based on # of arrests/severity of crime), and had other strange abuse and ethics issues.
Really guys step off the ledge
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Flood was actually a serviceable game day coach. He generally won and lost games that he should have. Unfortunately he couldn't recruit, academics declined, literally won the Fulmer Cup 2015 (rating based on # of arrests/severity of crime), and had other strange abuse and ethics issues.
Schiano recruited with his eyes not by the rankings. Put a bunch of 2 and 3 star guys in the NFL.
If we keep firing our coach every two years we'll be really great soon, right? Just like Syracuse is?
And if Pasqualoni wasn't fired for another year, Ray Rice and Courtney Greene would have been wearing Orange, too... and 2006 may have been sub .500
The only person who thought we were going 6-6 was Al and a few other delusional posters.
Had some second thoughts on this thread - may be we should practice Darwinism and encourage jumping off the ledge and improve the intellectual capacity of the board! ;)
Wrong. We were 5-0 non-conference. You are saying we would've been 1-6 in conference where we actually went 5-2. We went 2-1 against the three teams that replaced Miami, VT, and BC, and 3-1 against teams that would've been in the Big East either way. Worst case is 8-4, most likely 10-2 anyway IMO.
2006 Miami: 7-6, 3-5 in the ACC. They lost 31-7 to Louisville in week 3. Yes, there is no true transitive property in sports but all indications are we were superior to Miami this season.
VT and BC both had good years too, but even if we lost to both of them, we would've finished 9-3. And there is no doubt in my mind that our team was better than either of these teams that season. I expect the record would've been the same.
Now, take out Ray Rice and Courtney Greene and see if we go 5-0 out of conference. Part of our rise came because Cuse/Pitt went into decline. If Pasqualoni isn't replaced by Greg Robinson, we don't get Rice/Greene in 2005, and instead we face them in 2005/2006.
Do we go 7-5 with a bowl in 2005 without Rice/Greene (leading rusher and leading tackler), and with Miami/VTech still in the conference? If we go 5-6 with no bowl, do we still get Britt/Brown to commit after the season? Do we go 5-0 OoC in 2006 without Ray Rice/Courtney Greene, and potentially without Britt/Brown?
Between the end of 2004 and the start of 2006, the conference lost Miami, VTech, and BC.... and Cuse and Pitt began to struggle with new coaches. Cuse's coaching change led directly to our signing Rice/Greene, which were instrumental in our success in 2005 and 2006, the two years where Schiano finally "turned it around" at Rutgers.
Where would we be now if we went 5-6 in 2005 and 5-7 in 2006?
Schiano got a LOT of help from circumstances beyond his control as the Big East conference began to crumble. Ash won't get the benefit of the same. And Schiano may well have failed if faced with the same circumstances as Ash, at the same point in his career.
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Maybe Ash can ask Flood for those game notes he was always so busy taking...
Yes ...Schiano in the early years had little to no choice but to recruit 2-3 *** players... many of them were from Florida... I believe we at some point had around 25 on the roster ... being a 2-3*** in Florida was how he compensated for the lack of higher New Jersey guys...Speed ...Speed...Speed...we still appear slower than where we need to be...this class is very important... if we can hold it together it will certainly help in 2018.
I'll meet you half way. Maybe 6-6 is a bit of a gloom and doom perspective but 9-3 has kool-aid written all over it. We would have finished 7-5.
Nope. I disagree wholeheartedly. Once again, we were better than Miami that year and we would have split with VT and BC. BC had Matt Ryan but Eric Foster and Beckford would have made him miserable. Besides, we're talking about 3 teams that finished behind Wake Forest. How did the latter do against Louisville in the Orange Bowl? I would say 9-3 but even 11-2 would not be Kool aid. The 2006 team had chemistry. Look up the Eric Foster pep talk after the USF game on YouTube if you don't believe me.
You're being a little selective in your samples there. Ash has not signed a single player (nor can he) for 2018. They're just verbals and whether they'll stick through 1-11 no ine knows.
Good job not realizing this isn't the Pros. This is college, players drop passes all the time, I was at the game and saw our players drop passes as well. But I guess our drops would have lead to punts anyway so they don't count.
"Those drops may have stopped 1 or 2 scores." Really? And I guess if we didn't stop them in the redzone and hold them to field goals the score could have been worse as well. That's where your going with this right.
Nope - worst case would've been 8-4. Non-conference, we went 5-0. In conference vs teams that were in the Big East pre-ACC expansion, we went 3-1 (beat Pitt, UConn, Syracuse; lost to West Virginia).Are you arguing we would've been SWEPT by Miami, VT, and BC, and also dropped a game to Pitt (we beat them 20-10), UConn (24-13), or Syracuse (38-7), simply because we had to play Miami/VT/BC instead of a top 10 Louisville, USF, and Cincinnati? That's nuts.
Ash inherited a bad team when he first came in January 2016. Luck some recruits came at all.
Ash is good at recruiting. You got Melton, Clark, Vretman, etc.
Ash is good at getting kids to buy in.
Under his regime, a new weight room was PAID for.
Under his regime, a new practice complex was PAID for.
Ash has said all along that we lack depth in positions. One more year of a recruiting class will help this out.
Ash brought in Jerry Kill. Don't dismiss him after one full game (last game not there totally). He was a B1G coach of the year. Give him a chance. Maybe he can't work miracles with what he has right now.
Ash got many grad transfers. Most working out.
Ash brought in a kicker to hit the end zone on kick offs.
What does Pasqualoni being fired have to do with my point, which was that Miami/VT/BC jumping ship was NOT the reason we finished 11-2 in 2006? Now we're downgrading the best season of football we've ever had (possible exception, 1976 although a different level of competition) because a rival fired their coach and made a bad hire? SMH.
Heck, if Raheem Morris hadn't been fired after the 2011 season, Greg would've stayed at least through 2012 when we were officially invited to the B1G, and who knows what would've happened since then? Maybe he stays, capitalizes on the PSU sanctions when those hit, and we'd be entrenched in the top half of our division now. But Morris was fired, Schiano did bolt to Tampa, Flood was the replacement, and here we are trying to rebuild.
My point is that Schiano caught some big breaks that helped get the team over the hump. Had Miami, VTech, and BC stayed in the conference, and Cuse kept Pasqualoni even just one more season... 2006 (and even 2005) wouldn't have come close to happening.
A lot of factors outside of our control came together, and Schiano was able to capitalize on them. Ash won't have that same luck.
A lot of factors outside of our control came together, and Schiano was able to capitalize on them. Ash won't have that same luck.
Being a little selective? I showed the only full year he recruited as a single year. And I showed both 2017 and 2018 separately to show the current trend. It's not like I was hiding anything.
No matter how you slice it, the numbers are pretty damn close.
Can't look at recruiting rankings in a vacuum, though. While Schiano's classes were about the same nationally, they were much better relative to his conference (especially once the Big East upheavals happened in 2004-2005).
Looking just at the Rivals team rankings:
Schiano:
2002 - 46th (7th of 8 conference teams, conference average 44th, highest ranked 8th)
2003 - 45th (5th of 8 teams, average 36th, highest 5th)
2004 - 52nd (4th of 7 teams, average 57th, highest 24th)
2005 - 68th (6th of 8 teams, average 58th, highest 31st)
2006 - 42nd (3rd of 8 teams, average 56th, highest 21st)
2007 - 37th (3rd of 8 teams, average 48th, highest 23rd)
2008 - 46th (3rd of 8 teams, average 51st, highest 28th)
2009 - 38th (3rd of 8 teams, average 57th, highest 27th)
2010 - 64th (6th of 8 teams, average 57th, highest 27th)
2011 - 32nd (2nd of 8 teams, average 57th, highest 29th)
2012 - 24th (1st of 8 teams, average 50th, highest 24th)
Looking at the stretch from 2006-2012, we averaged the 40th ranked class in the country... but we were in the Top 3 in our conference 6 of those 7 years, and even our down year of 64th was only slightly behind the conference average of 57th. Classes in the 30-45 range were relatively good for the Big East at that time, as there weren't really top recruiting teams to worry about. From 2004-2012, no Big East team reeled in a Top 20 class, and only three reeled in a Top 25 class.
Flood:
2013 - 45th (3rd of 8 teams, average 52nd, highest 25th)
2014 - 57th (3rd of 10 teams, average 70th, highest 39th) (AAC)
2015 - 53rd (10th out of 14 teams, average 43rd, highest 9th) (Big Ten)
2016 - 78th (14th out of 14 teams, average 40th, highest 3rd)
Flood's classes were worse than Schiano's (averaged 58th, but you can clearly see the step up in competition from 2014 to 2015. While we went from the 57th to 53rd ranked class (slight improvement), we also went from being 3rd in the conference to 10th.
Ash
2017 - 43rd (9th out of 14 teams, average 36th, highest 2nd)
While Ash is recruiting about where Schiano was, the bar has been raised much higher. If you look at all the recruiting classes Schiano had, the best were ranked 24th, 32nd, 37th, and 38th.... last year, those would have ranked 6-8th in the Big Ten. They'd have been 5-6th in our 7-team division.
Our peak recruiting over the last 15 years would just about rise to "middle of the pack" in the conference, and still at the bottom of our division. To compete consistently, we can't keep bringing in classes in the 35-55th range.
Anyone who compares what greg inherited, state of program, and school/state support to what ash inherited needs to take their head out of their a $$. holy smokes
Schiano inherited a program in a much worse state, got it back on more solid footing, and then pulled the "Conference dissolves around you" Community Chest card.
Pretty much sums up how I feel. I'm just TIRED of waiting to reach the Promised Land. As an older fan, I'm not sure if I'll every see it.
A good showing against Nebraska, in Lincoln, will be a tough nut to crack. Hoping for it, but not expecting it.
Cripes...are we actually going revisionist and asking what if we didn't get Rice/Greene...So fuxing stupid, you realize this stuff happens every single year and with almost every single team. How many players have we lost at the end of the recruiting cycle over the years that could have helped us? Cripes, we can easily do a what if Herman/Barchi/Flood fiasco didnt happen and we kept a class full of game changers?
What if GS didn't leave and we got guys like Fuller. What ifs happen all the time.
Our 2006 roster is what it is. there is no history that can change that. So, no, the MAC has no chance to be BE of 2006. EMU has no chance of being a L'Ville, WVU, Rutgers or even USF
Some of you like to just talk stupid.
What if GS didn't leave and we got guys like Fuller. What ifs happen all the time.
Our 2006 roster is what it is. there is no history that can change that. So, no, the MAC has no chance to be BE of 2006. EMU has no chance of being a L'Ville, WVU, Rutgers or even USF
Some of you like to just talk stupid.
Good post. And good point that, to be competitive in the Big Ten, we must recruit competitively against them.
However, remember that I was responding to someone who stated that Schiano did lots better than Ash. Schiano's first full year of recruiting was 2002 and he was 7 out of 8. Ash was 9 out of 14. So narrowing the comparison to only within their relative conferences, and, objectively speaking, Ash actually is outdoing Schiano in that first full year.
I don't think Ash is on beat to match Schiano in year two though. But we'll see.
We're in agreement that Schiano didn't somehow do lots better than Ash did, even with just the first season to go on. Ash won't get the benefit of outside circumstances that Schiano did in Years 3 and 4, though, either... so comparisons will always be difficult between the two.
Agree. 2006 was achieved in a watered down BE. The B1G is comprised of flagship institutions of some very large states, we are not getting those types of breaks this time around, these states have intense pride in their institutions and are willing to invest the $s. Playing catch up in the B1G East division is a loser's proposition as it is currently constituted, even Maryland and Indiana aren't sitting around waiting for us to get our full share of B1G $s. Ash needs to step up his game and put the team in position to win some games other than Morgan State this year, no excuses.
Cripes.
Schiano had a dramatic change in his fortunes in 2005 and 2006, and a lot of that was due to forces beyond his control. Luck played a very large role.
The three best teams of his first three seasons left the conference (Wins from 2001-03: Miami 35, VTech 26, BC 25). The two next best teams lost their coaches, and went into decline (Wins from 2001-03: Pitt 24, Cuse 20). Then Temple was booted from the conference altogether (9 wins). The only two teams who came through from 2003 to 2005 unscathed were WVU (20 wins, tied with Cuse) and Rutgers (8 wins, last in the BE) .... who ended up being at the top of the conference.
That doesn't happen every single year. Having the top 3 teams in a conference leave altogether, and the next two replace coaches with worse on field results (resulting in a Heisman candidate falling in your lap)? It's not a "what if" scenario, but a "what happened" scenario.... those things all did happen at the same time, and to his credit Schiano was able to capitalize on them.
2006 was a fairy tale season, and as Schiano said at the time "skipped a few steps" on the program building path. It led to the stadium expansion, nationwide attention, and the path to the Big Ten.... it was pivotal in the program's development. But don't think that it is somehow because Schiano was a genius that took us from rags to riches all by his lonesome.
My point is...you can't change history to make it fit a narrative. Regardless of how we became very good that year, we were. The BE had 3 teams finish in the top 15 and all three were in the top 10 at one point with two of them that could have been in very real consideration of playing for the NC.
The point was saying that 2006 BE was somehow not that good. The actual fact is that no matter how it got there, it was one of the strongest conferences that year. It was not the MAC or EMU.
I don't know if the OP meant to do this, but the thread title is pretty ambiguous. After all, there are two directions you can go when you're on the ledge . . .
Schiano did inherit a much worse situation -- the program was a dead man walking. But in one way Ash has it worse -- we're in the B1G. Yes, the Big East was at some time a very powerful conference (remember Miami was in the Big East during its glory years), but the B1G East is even better.
I understand why long-time fans are so frustrated, but it's too early to pull the plug on Ash. He has to get at least this season and next, and if he shows any progress at all in that time, he should get his full five-year contract.
I know some of you dream of an experienced P5 coach, but I can't see it happening. It's hard to see such a coach coming here unless he's been fired somewhere else -- and is that really a coach you want?
Schiano did inherit a much worse situation -- the program was a dead man walking. But in one way Ash has it worse -- we're in the B1G. Yes, the Big East was at some time a very powerful conference (remember Miami was in the Big East during its glory years), but the B1G East is even better.
I understand why long-time fans are so frustrated, but it's too early to pull the plug on Ash. He has to get at least this season and next, and if he shows any progress at all in that time, he should get his full five-year contract.
I know some of you dream of an experienced P5 coach, but I can't see it happening. It's hard to see such a coach coming here unless he's been fired somewhere else -- and is that really a coach you want?
if coaches are fired based on the simple results of one game - there would only be Nick Saban as last man standing.
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