I mean, if your trying to make a point that rebounding didn’t hurt us (title of your thread), how would you not include plays where we committed a foul attempting to get a defensive board? Fouling there is worse than giving up an offensive board credited to a player. The opponent retains possession for a second chance (same as an offensive board) and your team and a player also pick up the foul.
Rebounding is not why we Lost
- Thread starter BillyC80
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I mean, if your trying to make a point that rebounding didn’t hurt us (title of your thread), how would you not include plays where we committed a foul attempting to get a defensive board? Fouling there is worse than giving up an offensive board credited to a player. The opponent retains possession for a second chance (same as an offensive board) and your team and a player also pick up the foul.
I agree with you on that point. Where we disagree is that the rebounding deficit was the reason we lost.
They had 6 more offensive rebounds than we had, but we had 6 fewer turnovers, so that’s a wash.
Where we lost the game is that we traded our 9 extra shots from the field (we missed 8 of them) for their 6 extra trips to the foul line (where they made all 12 FTs).
Getting outrebounded was to be expected, to the #28 team in RPG. We needed to shoot a little better to win the game. If we just shot a modest 6-17 from three (35%) instead of a paltry 3-17, and Oskar dunks that shot, we likely win.
Case in point, in that same arena two weeks ago, SHU outrebounded us on the offensive glass 16-8, and we beat them by 7 points by making shots.
Those are all nice metrics, but rebounding is pretty much why we lost if you watched the entire game.
We are both right here. It’s absolutely true that if we shot better we could’ve won despite poor rebounding. Even if we shot our previous average from 3 we would’ve been right there. What’s not true about that though is ball rotation having anything to do with that. We pretty much had very good looks from 3 and just missed them. Can’t control that at all.
The point is, yes, there are always a multitude of things you can do better to make up for weaknesses, but having to overcome a 20 rebound margin in any game is really tough. There’s no argument that the possessions with Cliff’s 3rd and 4th fouls (because of poor rebounding position) did not hurt us. You yourself said fouling was a problem and we picked up 3 team fouls in 70 seconds (halfway to the bonus) as a result of those possessions. Missing our first 3 defensive rebound attempts of that half hurt us.
Your right - we didn’t miss too many defensive rebounds in the last 5-8 minutes or so of the game when Miss State had already built a double digit lead. There weren’t a whole lot of late attempts as we were pressing a bunch to try and make a comeback and either turned them over, fouled and put them at the line, or they scored off the press break. Our guards grabbed a couple off of missed transition baskets. We’re ok rebounding those types of misses - it’s the halfcourt D where our positioning on the glass is terrible. But that doesn’t erase the impact that rebounding issues had at the beginning of the second half. It’s a big problem and shouldn’t be sugar coated.
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Is the new rule that there can be only one reason we lost?
This. The bottom line is if we rebounded better, games like Miss State would go down to the wire even if we don’t shoot well or do the other things people are complaining about.
This is an important topic because Pike found a way to make plus rebounders out of far weaker front court talent in his early seasons. Can he figure out a way to do it with this bunch? Or, nevermind “Plus” - can he make them serviceable? Because of our history - this seems like the area to have the most realistic hope of improving intra season.
I think in a way, fans are looking at stats or items and that can confuse anyone on the "why didn't we win".
You don't need to be a good rebounding team to win games, it is another myth that isn't reality based. The 1st 2 years of Pike's RU rebuild, showed RU was a very good rebounding team and those teams went 3-15 2 years in a row in a 18 game B1G schedule. Having Shaq Doorson, Candido Sa, DeShawn Freeman, Corey Sanders and Mike Williams can be a heck of a rebounding team, but if you don't have an ability to score against 1 on 1 defense or have an ability to generate FTs, you won't win.
The items about the guards being too small is also not a factor, you can be small, but you have to play tough and be willing to draw contact.
The Cliff disappearance or foul trouble is an obvious factor, but I have never walked into the RAC or had a game on TV, and thought we need 15 PTS from Cliff in order to win. He needed to be on the floor for defense, and altering shots, much more than his potential scoring.
I hold Simpson, Fernandes and lesser extent Austin Williams to a higher floor of play. I truly expected their drives to result in drawing fouls......which is a factor we didn't get enough of last year and I expected to get more FTs this year. We are 70+ FT attempts earned this year vs last year in the 1st 10 or so games.
If you are a 75 to 80% FT shooter and you DON'T draw contact or fouls AND you're an undersized or quicker guard, that's a problem. Both Fernandes and Simpson are good to excellent FT shooters. If you are driving, you have to drive to the point of forcing the refs to call a charge against you, attempting to score.
The reason why Mississippi State got into the bonus faster and eliminated the abilities of RU staying aggressive on defense, is their ability to draw fouls and RUs inability to draw fouls.
One kinda off-balance Cliff mid range shot is a win for any defense. If Cliff barreled into Bell, trying to dunk and got called for a charge, I'd gladly accept that instead of settling for a fade away shot.
There are timely rebounds or "stops", that are much more important than the overall rebounding number. In football, you can have good "3rd down conversion percentages" but a 3rd and 3 yards or less, is much different than 3rd and 8 yards or 10+ yards or more.
The formula for success this year and beyond is to get better guard play, get to the FT line, set up the 3/4 court token pressure and make opponents take jump shots and avoid getting beat off the dribble. That only happens with better athletes (incoming 2024 kids) and more consistently being skilled on offense (incoming 2024 kids, mixed with Gabin, Simpson and JMike)
Is this a NCAA caliber roster?? I actually believe it is and NO, RU doesn't have to win 13 B1G games out of the remaining 19 to dance. It just needs to be more competitive and start scoring more points, so if they do lose 8 to 9 more B1G games, that they're not a bunch of 8 to 10+ point losses. We have to close the gap scoring wise and if Cliff has a decent game and Simpson makes a couple of baskets, RU is right there.
Not sure it's a rebounding issue at all, we have to draw contact more and knock down more shots that we have....these are shots we can hit, even if they're 2 pointers.
You don't need to be a good rebounding team to win games, it is another myth that isn't reality based. The 1st 2 years of Pike's RU rebuild, showed RU was a very good rebounding team and those teams went 3-15 2 years in a row in a 18 game B1G schedule. Having Shaq Doorson, Candido Sa, DeShawn Freeman, Corey Sanders and Mike Williams can be a heck of a rebounding team, but if you don't have an ability to score against 1 on 1 defense or have an ability to generate FTs, you won't win.
The items about the guards being too small is also not a factor, you can be small, but you have to play tough and be willing to draw contact.
The Cliff disappearance or foul trouble is an obvious factor, but I have never walked into the RAC or had a game on TV, and thought we need 15 PTS from Cliff in order to win. He needed to be on the floor for defense, and altering shots, much more than his potential scoring.
I hold Simpson, Fernandes and lesser extent Austin Williams to a higher floor of play. I truly expected their drives to result in drawing fouls......which is a factor we didn't get enough of last year and I expected to get more FTs this year. We are 70+ FT attempts earned this year vs last year in the 1st 10 or so games.
If you are a 75 to 80% FT shooter and you DON'T draw contact or fouls AND you're an undersized or quicker guard, that's a problem. Both Fernandes and Simpson are good to excellent FT shooters. If you are driving, you have to drive to the point of forcing the refs to call a charge against you, attempting to score.
The reason why Mississippi State got into the bonus faster and eliminated the abilities of RU staying aggressive on defense, is their ability to draw fouls and RUs inability to draw fouls.
One kinda off-balance Cliff mid range shot is a win for any defense. If Cliff barreled into Bell, trying to dunk and got called for a charge, I'd gladly accept that instead of settling for a fade away shot.
There are timely rebounds or "stops", that are much more important than the overall rebounding number. In football, you can have good "3rd down conversion percentages" but a 3rd and 3 yards or less, is much different than 3rd and 8 yards or 10+ yards or more.
The formula for success this year and beyond is to get better guard play, get to the FT line, set up the 3/4 court token pressure and make opponents take jump shots and avoid getting beat off the dribble. That only happens with better athletes (incoming 2024 kids) and more consistently being skilled on offense (incoming 2024 kids, mixed with Gabin, Simpson and JMike)
Is this a NCAA caliber roster?? I actually believe it is and NO, RU doesn't have to win 13 B1G games out of the remaining 19 to dance. It just needs to be more competitive and start scoring more points, so if they do lose 8 to 9 more B1G games, that they're not a bunch of 8 to 10+ point losses. We have to close the gap scoring wise and if Cliff has a decent game and Simpson makes a couple of baskets, RU is right there.
Not sure it's a rebounding issue at all, we have to draw contact more and knock down more shots that we have....these are shots we can hit, even if they're 2 pointers.
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Dude.
(1) MOV is not a significant factor in tournament selection. We had good MOV last season which is why our metrics were quite good and yet did not get selected because those metrics are not nearly as relevant as people think.
(2) rebounding is 20% of the four factor formula for a reason. Is it the *most* important thing? No. But if you can’t rebound you are giving yourself a huge handicap that you will have to make up by being excellent in other ways.. somehow you think it’s more likely that Rutgers improves by becoming excellent shooters to compensate for terrible rebounding as opposed to incrementally improving the obvious low hanging fruit… we are #325 in defensive rebounding percentage.
Dude - listen to Pike’s presser. He stated outright that a) rebounding is the biggest problem they need to focus on addressing and b) because of their size and elite D, Miss State wasn’t going to allow guard penetration. It wasn’t realistic to expect skinny kids like Simpson to penetrate and draw contact at the rim. He would’ve been blocked for run outs.
The early teams you speak of that rebounded well were way less talented at every aspect of the game. It’s apples and oranges and those teams’ records despite good rebounding do not prove in any way, shape or form, that our current team wouldn’t be much better if we rebounded better. This is perhaps your worst take ever. The fact that Pike could get those teams rebounding as well as he could is reason to hope that he can figure things out and improve performance on the glass with our current (far more talented) group.
This is the disconnect I have; I don't see how you're going to get better guard play. This team is not going to win because of dynamic guard play. This team needs to defend and rebound.
I remember Pitino Jr. saying Rutgers beats you up inside at both ends of the floor
MOV is not a factor.....but whatever margin of defeat or what you lose by or how many points you lose by against Power 5/6 competition, is a obvious item.
No one is going to remember your MOV against Q4 competition, but it will be a factor against similar competition. If you look at MOV vs MOD for RU last year in relevant games, the numbers were not good. Sorry to break the bad news to you.
Do you want to look at MOV in RU wins vs teams that were Power 5 or 6, not named Minnesota....and then look at MOD on those same games?? There were a lot of very narrow wins and decided losses on the RU resume.
2) If we improve our rebounding and still shoot 30% from 3, we aren't winning any more basketball games. We hit 3 3 pointers vs Mississippi State and 12 vs Seton Hall.
There's literally no difference in rebounding that is going to change our lives. We need to score more points to get away from the 60PPG range where we are.
You are hyperfocused on rebounding, because every rebound looks critical, because every possession becomes more important, when you live at 60PPG. If you get closer to 70PPG, do you honestly think that means RU goes up 10 to 12 rebounds a game as the direct reason??
If we shoot a 30% from 3 instead if 3 of 17, we are in the game vs MSU. If we get to the line a couple more times, we are in the game.....
I want to debunk this nonsense before it gets out of control as another false narrative, like last years Mag departure as the reason RU struggled in February 2023.
RU isn't going to magically become the late 1980s or early 90s Detroit Pistons on the glass. It needs to do what it's been doing and make more of the available good shots they're getting. And to stop overpassing the ball into turning it over.
These are items to look for that are obvious and others that make no sense.
I read for a month and a half that Mags presence was going to be a difference maker on the glass and he would help because we needed that. And his defense would be also a factor. But when he gets beaten on a simple backcut/backdoor layup in the 1st half for a layup on an inbound pass and gets all of ONE rebound, then it's "RU is 325th in rebounding".
At some point, fans are looking for reasons why it's not talented or athletic enough to win games. And we keep adding unrealistic items to players that don't show up on tape or in the boxscore.
RU has a scoring, pace of play item it is trying to correct to improve how we play now, so we are better off next year and we still see isolated items being blown out of proportion.
I think RU is actually AHEAD of schedule vs last year and heading into next year. Gavin is where I thought he would be (around 10PPG if he played 25 or so minutes) and we have improved with Simpson (Miss State game included) and I hear ZERO arguments about JMike Davis, when it took 5 minutes of watching his HS tape, to see he was at worse, where Simpson was at a freshman last year.
Cliff and Woolfolk have to show up, asking Mag to be a better player, isn't viable or realistic. And our guards need to get going in January, which I am confident will happen. Stop panicking about small stuff, there's no perfect basketball roster in a retooling/restructuring of a roster in one off season.
I read for a month and a half that Mags presence was going to be a difference maker on the glass and he would help because we needed that. And his defense would be also a factor. But when he gets beaten on a simple backcut/backdoor layup in the 1st half for a layup on an inbound pass and gets all of ONE rebound, then it's "RU is 325th in rebounding".
At some point, fans are looking for reasons why it's not talented or athletic enough to win games. And we keep adding unrealistic items to players that don't show up on tape or in the boxscore.
RU has a scoring, pace of play item it is trying to correct to improve how we play now, so we are better off next year and we still see isolated items being blown out of proportion.
I think RU is actually AHEAD of schedule vs last year and heading into next year. Gavin is where I thought he would be (around 10PPG if he played 25 or so minutes) and we have improved with Simpson (Miss State game included) and I hear ZERO arguments about JMike Davis, when it took 5 minutes of watching his HS tape, to see he was at worse, where Simpson was at a freshman last year.
Cliff and Woolfolk have to show up, asking Mag to be a better player, isn't viable or realistic. And our guards need to get going in January, which I am confident will happen. Stop panicking about small stuff, there's no perfect basketball roster in a retooling/restructuring of a roster in one off season.
I don’t want to look at it because you’re the only one looking at it. This is some weird cherry picked stat that has nothing to do with anything.
One reason, everybody knows the rules…….like a Dave Portnoy OneBite pizza review. There are always multiple reasons for losses, just like there are multiple reasons for wins.
I went back and looked.....all real teams in last 2+ years...games where we had a higher percentage of rebounds and shot under 30% from 3.
last year
12-3 IND W
12-11 SHU L
1-19 MSU L
3-9 Mich W
21-22
11-27 UMASS L
1-19 Iowa W
2-26 Wisc L
if you raise the barrier to games under 33.3% we gain 2 wins
The rebounding then leads to too much fouling. A team gets an offense rebound, sometimes goes right back up with and draws a foul. Or the offensive rebound leads to a kick out and more passing to the point where multiple defensive players are scrambling and out of position and leads to a foul. I agree we need to draw more fouls but our fouling of the opponent would be reduced with some sort of improvement on the defensive boards, not to mention less total shots and possessions for our opponent. I watch the foul battle every game and hope we get in the bonus as quick as possible by drawing fouls as it’s a major advantage. Our guards need to think about more passing when they drive as they shoot nearly every time they drive the lane. Dish it off and get the defensive scrambling, helps draw fouls.
last year RU suffered a close defeat to a very very good Miami on the road
last year RU beat a ranked Indiana at home by 15, they went on the road to Ohio State and had a game stolen from them, they came back home and suffered a bad home loss to shu showing the after effects of the previous loss, then they wallopped an okay Wake Forest at home by 24
no comparison at all...last years team performed way better and there was a belief that they could beat any team they faced
this years team is getting demolished on the boards and going through regular 6-7 minutes stretches with 0 or 1 fg
on January 2 they would go to Purdue and win
no talking......you need to stay in the corner for a few more hours for fooling me in to thinking we only gave up 1 OREB in 2nd half.
Our record is 1-1
1-19 MSU last year was a L
1-19 Iowa year before was a W
We are off 1-19-2024 in case anyone wondered
MOV and MOD?? What are we doing here? We’ve moved into the area of mental masturbation. These are not things that are relevant to the tourney. Wins are, and big, quality wins especially. This team needs 12 wins with possibly another in Conference Tourney. We would be 20-11 headed to conference tourney. Then it would matter as to who we beat but it seems safe to assume if won 12, that there would be a nice chunk of quality wins (Q1) mixed in. I am just saying this is what needs to be done. I am not saying this is what I expect, just what needs to be done. They have a lot of work to do as they have played 5 games against real opponents so far and came up empty in four of them.
I am the pessimist of all Rutgers basketball fans.....although worried about depth and starter minutes I was starting to think we had a team that could compete for the National Championship
i think eventually depth issues or just a cold shooting night would catch up with us somewhere but for up to that Michigan State game. Rutgers had the IT factor.
This years team has shown little ability to play at a high level. Yes a very solid game vs SHU that tricked some people. SHU had no energy in that game and didnt even put up a fight really once RU got the lead. The meltdown at Wake to me indicated the lack of toughness in this team. Its not going to go away. Yes they will beat an Indiana or Wisconsin at home but its going to be the exception rather than rule.
The big fear is the two game big two game road trip. Lose them and the season unravels but in some ways with the tourney out of consideration, Pike can concentrate on just putting the best players out there and the best players that will be here for next year
I’m guessing we haven’t won too many games (ever) where the rebounding margin was 20+ against us.
I don't think we have any of those in inventory. When looking at raw numbers only it is tough to win when being outrebounding by 20 because it most likely means you miss more shots than opponents.
Actually - no. the reason they got on the bonus early in the second half is because we fouled them twice early in the second half trying to grab the rebound. Then we fouled them again on one of the resulting baseline inbounds plays.
Do you realize that we actually scored more field goals than Miss State (23 vs 22)? They only had one more three than us so the basket dispersion was pretty much dead even since we forced more turnovers which compensated for our worse shooting percentage.
The difference in the game was they scored 9 second half free throws from being in the bonus (they didn’t “draw contact” as you put it in penetration - most of them were committed nowhere near the basket).
Now reflect on the point I made - if Cliff doesn’t commit those 2 fouls and we grab the defensive rebounds instead - we don’t give up two second chance baskets there (4 points), Cliff doesn’t pick up foul number 4, and a good chunk of those 9 points don’t happen and are just side outs because we’re not in the bonus so early. And Oskar doesn’t have to play. It’s a completely different game.
I would rather take a shot on an offensive rebound that is 5 feet from the basket than a 15 footer off a set play. Higher chance of getting foul shots and a greater chance that a defender is out of position to make a play. 3-4 of those happen and we might win. I can’t believe people think that rebounding is not the biggest issue here.
Someone said it earlier, if you get out rebounded by 20+, the odds that u will have lost are exceeding high, probably over 90%. No doubt there are other reasons too, and bad shooting can contribute to the rebounding disparity, but at the end of the day getting destroyed in the boards night in and night out is not a formula for success.
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