Respect is earned, but stupidity sometimes can be overcome

[cubuffsdoug]

I ran across a post on Iowa, linking a site called Fansided. There was an article ranking the coaches of the B1G. Guess who was ranked 14th? The author dismissed the growth of Pike and the program over the three seasons. The author pretended like last season didn't happen. I think Pike is better than several coaches ranked ahead of him. What do you guys think?


https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/08/24/big-ten-basketball-ranking-14-head-coaches-2019-20-season/2/

 

[KnightTerrors]

If it’s any consolation I’m a sports nut under 30 and I’ve never in my life heard of the author nor the website.

 

[BigEastPhil]

In fairness to the writer, all other B1G 10 Coaches per the article have either accomplished much more than Pike or have gotten their Big 10 squad to the dance (i think Pitino has) or in the case of Chambers won the NIT.

Even Chris Collins got NW to the Dance for the 1st time several years ago.

I love Pike and once he gets us to the dance, he'll elevate himself per the poll you posted.

Respect takes time but we'll get there...:)

 

[BillyC80]

I think you can do a meaningful comparison of coaches by taking the number of games they won in a given season that they were expected to lose, and subtracting the number of games they lost that they were expected to win.

There are also successful coaches who get outcoached in the NCAA tourney when their teams get beat by a much higher seed.

And then you have the coaches who turn around a moribund program, pull them out of the abyss and turn them into a competitive team that is capable of beating anybody. That’s where Pike is now.

 

[NJDOVES]

Coach Pike is destined to be B1G ten coach of the year! Soon...

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I think you can do a meaningful comparison of coaches by taking the number of games they won in a given season that they were expected to lose, and subtracting the number of games they lost that they were expected to win.

There are also successful coaches who get outcoached in the NCAA tourney when their teams get beat by a much higher seed.

And then you have the coaches who turn around a moribund program, pull them out of the abyss and turn them into a competitive team that is capable of beating anybody. That’s where Pike is now.

I don't get the article. One moment the article talks about Pike's experience at Stony Brook but discounts his experience at Rutgers. Are you comparing coaching skills or the results of the program? If that's the case, why mention Stony Brook? Clearly the results do matter but get discounts because of Rutgers' past. This is a case of using data to fit the author's argument.

 

[BillyC80]

The article is a head scratcher. For example, how did Juwan Howard outrank 3 other B1G coaches when he hasn’t been the head coach of a single game yet in his career?

Also, to say “it will take years for RU to compete for an NCAA tournament” is just an assumption based on where we’ve been and not based on the current outlook. We can conceivably make the tourney this year or next.

 

[Upstream]

If I had the inclination, I could write a blog post claiming that Pike is the best coach in the B1G, and then you could quote that.

 

[Mr Magoo]

In fairness to the writer, all other B1G 10 Coaches per the article have either accomplished much more than Pike or have gotten their Big 10 squad to the dance (i think Pitino has) or in the case of Chambers won the NIT.

Even Chris Collins got NW to the Dance for the 1st time several years ago.

I love Pike and once he gets us to the dance, he'll elevate himself per the poll you posted.

Respect takes time but we'll get there...:)

Good post. I like Pike also and he seems great for our program but the reality is he is near or at the bottom of the B1G if anyone was to rank all the coaches. He has a great opportunity to change that. Aside from Hoiberg and Howard, who are new to the league, I believe he’s the only coach to have not yet had a .500 B1G season. Hoiberg has proven himself at Iowa Sate and coached in the NBA and Howard has yet to prove himself but has tons of recruiting ties.

I’m actually not sure if I would rank him ahead of any B1G coach right now, except perhaps Howard, only because he hasn’t coached yet. Having said that, this league is filled with excellent coaches and I’m glad he’s here.

 

[RUInsanity]

In fairness to the writer, all other B1G 10 Coaches per the article have either accomplished much more than Pike or have gotten their Big 10 squad to the dance (i think Pitino has) or in the case of Chambers won the NIT.

Even Chris Collins got NW to the Dance for the 1st time several years ago.

I love Pike and once he gets us to the dance, he'll elevate himself per the poll you posted.

Respect takes time but we'll get there...:)

The measure of the impact of any coach must take into consideration where the program was prior to his arrival. It also must take into account the relative resources of the institution.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Good post. I like Pike also and he seems great for our program but the reality is he is near or at the bottom of the B1G if anyone was to rank all the coaches. He has a great opportunity to change that. Aside from Hoiberg and Howard, who are new to the league, I believe he’s the only coach to have not yet had a .500 B1G season. Hoiberg has proven himself at Iowa Sate and coached in the NBA and Howard has yet to prove himself but has tons of recruiting ties.

BillyC80 explains it best.

Three things stand out for me. One is the name on the front of the jersey. Two, teams having ties to the B1G much longer than Rutgers automatically gain more respect. For example, Northwestern made the tourney once and has been far worse than Rutgers overall over the years. Three, the name of the coach has a lot of pull with this author.

 

[Mr Magoo]

BillyC80 explains it best.

Three things stand out for me. One is the name on the front of the jersey. Two, teams having ties to the B1G much longer than Rutgers automatically gain more respect. For example, Northwestern made the tourney once and has been far worse than Rutgers overall over the years. Three, the name of the coach has a lot of pull with this author.

I wrestled with Collins vs. Pike but the Duke bloodline does come into play. It’s also tougher to get a kid academically qualified at NW than probably at any other B1G school. I know Collins lost a 4 star recruit last year because of that.

I do think that one of Pike’s greatest strengths is in identifying under-the-radar players and “coaching them up”.

 

[BKIn118]

God writing crap like this is such a waste of time...we’ve reached preseason critical mass when it comes to content for click bait with this one.

 

[Scarlet83]

I wrestled with Collins vs. Pike but the Duke bloodline does come into play. It’s also tougher to get a kid academically qualified at NW than probably at any other B1G school. I know Collins lost a 4 star recruit last year because of that.

I do think that one of Pike’s greatest strengths is in identifying under-the-radar players and “coaching them up”.

The way I see it, a bloodline means something until that coach has a record of performance. How long has Collins been at Northwestern?

 

[RUsojo]

I think you can do a meaningful comparison of coaches by taking the number of games they won in a given season that they were expected to lose, and subtracting the number of games they lost that they were expected to win.

There are also successful coaches who get outcoached in the NCAA tourney when their teams get beat by a much higher seed.

And then you have the coaches who turn around a moribund program, pull them out of the abyss and turn them into a competitive team that is capable of beating anybody. That’s where Pike is now.

Cover Percentage and Rank in Big Ten by Year:

2018-2019: 53.3%/4th
2017-2018: 53.8%/6th
2016-2017: 50%/8th

Not exactly what you were looking for but found it mildly interesting nonetheless.

 

[Mr Magoo]

The way I see it, a bloodline means something until that coach has a record of performance. How long has Collins been at Northwestern?

6 seasons at NW, 101-96 overall including a 20 win season and a 24 win season, and 4 losing seasons.

 

[BillyC80]

Cover Percentage and Rank in Big Ten by Year:

2018-2019: 53.3%/4th
2017-2018: 53.8%/6th
2016-2017: 50%/8th

Not exactly what you were looking for but found it mildly interesting nonetheless.

If covering the spread means a coach is exceeding expectations with the talent he has then I suppose this is another way to compare coaching performance, at least on game day.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Is this peak off season for basketball!!

sounds like it

 

[RUsojo]

I think you can do a meaningful comparison of coaches by taking the number of games they won in a given season that they were expected to lose, and subtracting the number of games they lost that they were expected to win.

There are also successful coaches who get outcoached in the NCAA tourney when their teams get beat by a much higher seed.

And then you have the coaches who turn around a moribund program, pull them out of the abyss and turn them into a competitive team that is capable of beating anybody. That’s where Pike is now.

Cover Percentage and Rank in Big Ten by Year:

2018-2019: 53.3%/4th
2017-2018: 53.8%/6th
2016-2017: 50%/8th

Not exactly what you were looking for but found it mildly interesting nonetheless.

Found some data in regular season. Working on 2018-2019. UPDATED w/ 2018-2109.

2016-2017 Wins as underdog:
DePaul +2
Nebraska +2
Penn St +8

3-16 Straight up as underdog(~.126 wins below expectation)

2016-2017 Losses as favorite:
Penn St -2
Iowa -1

10-2 Straight up as favorite

2017-2018 Wins as an underdog
Seton Hall +8
Wisconsin +3
Iowa +1
Northwestern +3

4-15 Straight up as underdog (~.229 wins over expectation)

2017-2018 Losses as Favorite:
Stony Brook - no line
Hartford - no line
Nebraska -2

9-3 Straight Up as Favorite

During this time frame:
Favorite: 19-5
Underdog 7-31

Underdogs against Pikiell Win Percentage: .208
Pikiell as an Underdog Win Percentage: .184

2018-2019 Wins as Underdog
Miami +10.5
Ohio St +5
Nebraska +8.5
Penn St +7
Indiana +1.5
Northwestern 5.5
Iowa 8.5

7-15 Straight Up as Underdog: .318 win percentage as underdog (~1.5 wins above expectation)

2018-2019 Losses as Favorite
Fordham -8

7-1 Straight Up as a Favorite: .125 Underdog win percentage against Pikiell

Career to Date at Rutgers:
Favorite: 26-6
Underdog: 14-46 (~1.6 wins over expectation)

Underdogs Win Percentage Against Pikiell: .187
Pikiells Win Percentage as Underdog: .233
Pikiells 2019 Win Percentage as Underdog: .318
NCAA Underdogs Win Percentage: .257

 

[Russ Wood]

Mark Turgeon at No. 4
[roll][roll][roll]

 

[willisneverrana43]

If covering the spread means a coach is exceeding expectations with the talent he has then I suppose this is another way to compare coaching performance, at least on game day.

Your “at least on game day” exception swallows the entirety of the argument, since CBB coaches are responsible for getting their personnel and recruiting is a hugely important part of being a good CBB coach. All that said, nobody really cares about this article, if it can even be called that.

 

[BillyC80]

Your “at least on game day” exception swallows the entirety of the argument, since CBB coaches are responsible for getting their personnel and recruiting is a hugely important part of being a good CBB coach. All that said, nobody really cares about this article, if it can even be called that.

Exactly. That’s why I added that caveat about game day coaching. There is more to being a great coach than just prepping and coaching for game day, especially as it relates to recruiting.That said, in the case of Pike, what head coach in the B1G has had a bigger challenge in recruiting talent?

The first key to turning around our recruiting woes was for Pike to show he can get his guys prepared, have them come together as a team, play hard and focused, and to stand up to the superior talent of our opponents. I believe he’s done that, which will lead to even better recruiting (and more wins) going forward.

This is another reason he’s an outstanding coach who I would rate as middle of the pack in the B1G, with a chance to move into the upper echelon over time.

 

[BillyC80]

Found some data in regular season.

Pikiell

2018-2019 Wins as Underdog
Miami +10.5
Ohio St +5
Nebraska +8.5
Penn St +7
Indiana +1.5
Northwestern 5.5
Iowa 8.5

7-15 Straight Up as Underdog: .318 win percentage as underdog (~1.5 wins above expectation)

2018-2019 Losses as Favorite
Fordham -8

Career to Date at Rutgers:
Favorite: 26-6
Underdog: 14-46 (~1.6 wins over expectation)

Underdogs Win Percentage Against Pikiell: .187
Pikiells Win Percentage as Underdog: .233
Pikiells 2019 Win Percentage as Underdog: .318
NCAA Underdogs Win Percentage: .257

Good stuff sojo, thanks for compiling.

So this puts his coaching performance of 2018/19 in a new light for me, with Pike at +6, winning 7 times as the underdog but losing only once as the favorite. I wonder how that stacks up against other coaches in the B1G last year.

 

[ColonelRutgers]

Fansided is a Bleacher Report wannabe site. Essentially letting anyone (with no pay) be a “sportswriter”. No more credibility than a random message board poster. Present company excluded of course.

 

[RUsojo]

Good stuff sojo, thanks for compiling.

So this puts his coaching performance of 2018/19 in a new light for me, with Pike at +6, winning 7 times as the underdog but losing only once as the favorite. I wonder how that stacks up against other coaches in the B1G last year.

He has a positive trend now in terms of wins above expectation as an underdog. That’s a good sign if you assume talent level across the conference stays the same or tilts in Rutgers favor.

 

[willisneverrana43]

. . .
The first key to turning around our recruiting woes was for Pike to show he can get his guys prepared, have them come together as a team, play hard and focused, and to stand up to the superior talent of our opponents. I believe he’s done that, which will lead to even better recruiting (and more wins) going forward.
. . . .

I agree that this is the way in which Pike will do it if he can do it. Different coaches build programs different ways. Pike strikes me as someone who first shows his teaching and coaching abilities and then builds on his growing reputation to attract talent in recruiting. And he's decent at sales pitches. He always has a sales pitch at-the-ready to describe the team, the program and each player. That said, I'd replace the word "will" in your post with something like "we hope." I think he'll do it, but I am by no means sure. I've thought early on that other guys in the last 25 years were going to do it, and they didn't, at times crashing and burning. And Pike still loses an awful lot of recruiting battles. The hope is, though, that he is now at least getting players that he can work with to develop a team that competes and maybe, eventually, wins more in-league games than it loses. If he does that, it will increase his chances of winning some--and he only needs to win some--of the recruiting battles that he's not winning now. Then he can coach even more talented players and, voila, we have a program. I hope that's what he is and what's coming. But it's by no means certain.

 

[rucoe89]

The article is a head scratcher. For example, how did Juwan Howard outrank 3 other B1G coaches when he hasn’t been the head coach of a single game yet in his career?

Also, to say “it will take years for RU to compete for an NCAA tournament” is just an assumption based on where we’ve been and not based on the current outlook. We can conceivably make the tourney this year or next.

Because its more about being Michigan than being Howard. He automatically gets benefit of the doubt due to the Michigan brand. That is the "reasoning skills" many internet writers are endowed with.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I just posted another thread that compares recruiting ranking to actual performance. Pike gets more from his players than the majority of the league. Let the league (and media/fans) continue to underestimate Rutgers. I hope Rutgers punish teams. Iowa is the only team singing a different tune this year. Let's make the idiots in Minnesota and Wisconsin join the crew. :Laughing

 

[willisneverrana43]

Then he mustn’t be recruiting very good players.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Then he mustn’t be recruiting very good players.

It's the Rutgers factor. You saw it during Schiano's years, where a ton of his recruits were 2 stars and low 3 stars but ended up in the NFL. For some reason, any time a recruit commits to Rutgers, their ranking takes a dip. There's a lack of respect shown to Rutgers in most sports. Anyway, it's always been about development. You can be super talented, but without developing those skills, it doesn't matter. Then throw in the teaching skills of the coach, and you got something cooking.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Its simple. There's the top couple of guys...now less JB at UM.....and then there's all the rest.
The difference between 4 and 14 isn't much and changes week to week.

 

[willisneverrana43]

It's the Rutgers factor. You saw it during Schiano's years, where a ton of his recruits were 2 stars and low 3 stars but ended up in the NFL. For some reason, any time a recruit commits to Rutgers, their ranking takes a dip. There's a lack of respect shown to Rutgers in most sports. Anyway, it's always been about development. You can be super talented, but without developing those skills, it doesn't matter. Then throw in the teaching skills of the coach, and you got something cooking.

So Pike really isn’t really outcoaching anyone, RU recruits are just habitually undervalued?

 

[cubuffsdoug]

So Pike really isn’t really outcoaching anyone, RU recruits are just habitually undervalued?

Pike is out coaching some of the B1G coaches, and his recruits are habitually underrated.

 

[willisneverrana43]

And he saves kittens from trees before most games.