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Season epitaph: We failed to create our own luck

kcg88

Heisman Winner
Aug 11, 2017
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KenPom lists us as the 15th most unlucky team this season. His measurement basically says that our expected record does not match what our efficiency would suggest. Part of that is random chance but a big part of it was really, really bad end-of-game execution. We got unlucky but if it's true that you create your own luck... well, we did none of that. None. The whole season.

That's on the coaching staff and the captains and it needs to be better next year.
 
KenPom lists us as the 15th most unlucky team this season. His measurement basically says that our expected record does not match what our efficiency would suggest. Part of that is random chance but a big part of it was really, really bad end-of-game execution. We got unlucky but if it's true that you create your own luck... well, we did none of that. None. The whole season.

That's on the coaching staff and the captains and it needs to be better next year.


purdue, penn state, wisconsin

what I dont like about this game is that our coach is supposedly the defensive guru yet this game comes down to getting one stop and where the adjustment to get stops, I realize they were hitting everything but they also were at times getting in incredibly position and Ru did nothing all game to disrupt, I know the press worked at times not all but when the game got into overtime, I dont think the coaching staff had anything to offer it was more of the same. And again they hit crazy shots but why were they so comfortable to waltz into the rac and starting everything. our first half defense was horrendous for stretches
 
Agree with bac, surprised Spencer gave up the ball so easily in the free throw situation.
last play in OT Simpson had great shot, didn’t bounce our way, but surprised it wasn’t a Paul/Cliff high pick and roll and Spencer As an option on a drive and pass
 
its as if Pike wanted Simpson to prove himself or redeem himself, he is a freshmen, why put him in that spot. I know people can say, Derek makes that shot when he is a senior or makes those free throws next year, well this is still this year. Cam and Paul are two guys who should be taking free throws. I was disappointed that it seemed like Paul disappeared after his good stretch when RU went on that run
 
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What the hell was the play at the end of regulation where Paul just chucks the ball up in the air and prays something happens? 2.2 seconds is a lifetime for someone as fast as Simpson to get down the court.


that is a major problem for me tonight with Pike, in totality its a minor play but that is CLEARLY INDEFENSIBLE.....is it Pauls fault or Pike, have to do better, th
 
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What the hell was the play at the end of regulation where Paul just chucks the ball up in the air and prays something happens? 2.2 seconds is a lifetime for someone as fast as Simpson to get down the court.
That was a shocking play call. Don't blame Paul except for that poor throw. That ball could have gone to midcourt with one or two options from there. Not suggesting we hit anything but that was a lousy plan.
 
KenPom lists us as the 15th most unlucky team this season. His measurement basically says that our expected record does not match what our efficiency would suggest. Part of that is random chance but a big part of it was really, really bad end-of-game execution. We got unlucky but if it's true that you create your own luck... well, we did none of that. None. The whole season.

That's on the coaching staff and the captains and it needs to be better next year.
We failed to hustle and out rebound a small team full of guards. If we did that we would have won. Only Cam and Simpson seemed to hustle. Luckily they will both be back.
 
Rutgers was a over achieving team that had some great early wins against B1G Ten opponents. As the season progressed the offensive flaws became more evident and losing at home became the norm.The stellar defense became swiss cheese at the worse possible times.
 
that is a major problem for me tonight with Pike, in totality its a minor play but that is CLEARLY INDEFENSIBLE.....is it Pauls fault or Pike, have to do better, th
Yeah I keep forgetting about that with everything else that happened. I remember saying as we were about to inbound “just don’t throw a full court pass all the way down where they can pick it off and heave one for the win, that’s the only way we can end up losing at this point, at worst we’re going to OT” …..and sure enough Paul loads up to chuck it full court….I just started to laugh, all you can do at that point. But it’s shit like this end of game where we find ways to lose and it’s gotta change
 
KenPom lists us as the 15th most unlucky team this season. His measurement basically says that our expected record does not match what our efficiency would suggest. Part of that is random chance but a big part of it was really, really bad end-of-game execution. We got unlucky but if it's true that you create your own luck... well, we did none of that. None. The whole season.

That's on the coaching staff and the captains and it needs to be better next year.
You know watching it I realized defense , rebounding and intensity was not there and optional and I chalked it up to the NIT.
There was no ratchet up of the defense and I stated In another Thread that 2,years in a row , we play a nice uptempo game , get great scoring distribution but we just don’t have the legs to turn up the defensive intensity. The Big 10 grind is tough and we just cannot turn the switch. Look at that Michigan and Purdue games where our defensive intensity was great , active in our zone , everybody rebounding , diving on the floor and hustling. The only hustle play tonight was Caleb’s put back dunk. That is it. So curious about our team being almost unrecognizable defensively 2 years in a row and lose a double OT and OT game that we should have won in regulation.

Looking at the box score , we shot well , got 16 shots for Cam and Derek. , 12 for Caleb , 8 for Cliff and 6 for Paul. We got 22, 19 , 14 , 13 and 9 for Paul. Cam was 6-11 from 3 getting the shots he needed .,We had 18 assists , only 10 turnovers. We normally would be so happy about almost the entire starting lineup . That is on most nights a winning box score.
So your point about Luck being 352 on Kenpom definitely comes into play with the tough , difficult shots Thomas hit and throw in the banked 3 by the point guard. Give Hofstra credit for hitting them. We actually got more bad luck as Estrada fouled with 6:25 and was having just a decent night and then Thomas went unconscious. What luck !!!!
 
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This.
I agree. Our record does not indictate how good we’ve played in games. We just can’t win for some reason. Up 5 with 27 seconds left. Up 10 at minessota with a little over a minute. Somehow these teams hit 3 after 3 and we collapse or something else happens.
 
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We failed to hustle and out rebound a small team full of guards. If we did that we would have won. Only Cam and Simpson seemed to hustle. Luckily they will both be back.

Caleb too. Other than those 3, nope. I'm telling you that high energy relentless hustle, and our lack of it for long stretches is exactly why Mag was such a key to the early success and later collapse.
 
Couldn't believe cam passed it to Simpson at the end (who hit 1 of 2 free throws). A surprising low IQ play by him. The ball has to stick with him as soon as it gets in his hands.
 
even though he was hot, im not a fan of riding a freshmen to win you the end game. He is there to put you in position to win, we have juniors and seniors who should be in those spots
Same people ranting about Simpson not being in end of Minnesota game which I said if Simpson was in and missed people would say you need to go with the experienced players

Simpson has a great game and is in and misses and people say exactly that. So so predictable
 
We were just too thin on the bench this year.

We had a strong core group of guys that had complementary skill sets to one another and gave Pike a lot of flexibility with lineups - both to adjust for guys being off on a given night and to adapt to what the other team was throwing at us. No one was an elite star - everyone shared the game and leaned on each other, and different players stepped up at different times. When we had a full complement of players, we fared much better than when any key piece was out.

10 of our 15 losses were games where we were missing one of our key players (McConnell, Mulcahy, or Mag). An 11th was lost on a bad call when the team did enough to win on the road vs. Ohio State.

From the time we got both Mulcahy/McConnell back (12/3 vs. Indiana) to the game we lost Mag (2/4 vs. MSU), we were 11-5 against the teeth of the schedule (3 of the 5 losses were Q1 games and a 4th drew an official apology from the conference). In games where we were missing a starter, we were 8-10 (and 5 of those wins were against teams with a NET of 295+)

The bench just didn't have the ability to consistently bridge the gap.
 
What the hell was the play at the end of regulation where Paul just chucks the ball up in the air and prays something happens? 2.2 seconds is a lifetime for someone as fast as Simpson to get down the court.
Agreed terrible inbounds and Paul stepped over the end line . Refs missed it thankfully
 
Foul shots have not been our friend.
I will continue to contend that basically our high energy D takes it out of our scorers (especially with a weak bench) and so the shots dont generally fall at the end when they need to. Obviously maybe they are just a bunch of chokers who freeze up under pressure, but I think tiredness is a better explanation.
 
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If Simpson hits a free throw RU wins

We also win if the refs open their eyes and don't call an obvious flop as a foul on Paul. Paul never touched him. Hofstra sank two free throws it shouldn't have received.

Moral of the story a lot of things happened in the game that could have changed the course, Simpson also drove to the basket at least twice where no foul was called. After one I thought Pike's head was about to pop off which is saying something.
 
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We also win if the refs open their eyes and don't call an obvious flop as a foul on Paul. Paul never touched him. Hofstra sank two free throws it shouldn't have received.

Moral of the story a lot of things happened in the game that could have changed the course, Simpson also drove to the basket at least twice where no foul was called. After one I thought Pike's head was about to pop off which is saying something.

Can't argue individual calls that went our way without mentioning them fouling out Estrada on nonsense. The officiating in that game was horrifyingly bad, but I think we benefited from it more than Hofstra did.
 
Can't argue individual calls that went our way without mentioning them fouling out Estrada on nonsense. The officiating in that game was horrifyingly bad, but I think we benefited from it more than Hofstra did.
I started a separate thread on the officials last night, they sucked and ruined the flow of the game. But I don't agree that RU benefited more.

The fouls by end of game were 15 (Hofstra) vs 14 (RU). Cliff sat awhile in the 1st due to a bad foul call for his second. And even though Estrada fouled out, by end of regulation he had still played more minutes than Cliff. That second foul probably cost RU a basket or two between offense and defense.

Lots of other things went against RU too. Those constant long rebounds when they had multiple guys crashing the boards hurt and there were a bunch of hustle plays they didn't make. Plus Hofstra hit some ridiculous shots as well. Rough way to end the season.
 
People are putting way too much into the Hofstra game . This tournament does not matter!

Yes, for the season we were unlucky . The minnesota game especially
 
What the hell was the play at the end of regulation where Paul just chucks the ball up in the air and prays something happens? 2.2 seconds is a lifetime for someone as fast as Simpson to get down the court.
4.2 seconds is a lifetime. 2.2 seconds is not.
 
This.
I agree. Our record does not indictate how good we’ve played in games. We just can’t win for some reason. Up 5 with 27 seconds left. Up 10 at minessota with a little over a minute. Somehow these teams hit 3 after 3 and we collapse or something else happens.
Both. Minny hit 4 really deep shots but we just needed to make one play to win.
 
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