Some snow likely inland/N of 78 on Thursday; mostly rain for I-95/coast

[RU848789]

Looks like a near miss for the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with some snow before about noon and maybe a coating to 1/2" of snow, followed by a changeover to rain, as temps warm to the mid/upper 30s. Small chance this ends as snow all the way to the coast on Thursday night, as cold air rushes in, but usually in those situations, the moisture on the back end of the storm dries out before much snow can fall.

However, NW of I-95 and especially N of 78, enough cold air is likely to be in place to keep it mainly snow during the day with 1-2" possible and 2-4" possible north of 80 (and especially towards the Hudson Valley/CT, as more precip will fall to our NE, as the coastal storm forms off the NJ coast and gets cranking as it moves NE. Could be quite the snowmaker for the Catskills (4-8"), well upstate NY (6-10") and interior New England (8-12" possible) - good for the ski resorts.

NY Eve is looking cloudy and not too cold with temps around 32F in NYC in the evening - there is a chance for a light rain or snow shower, depending on where one is (snow showers more likely inland, as usual).

 

[retired711]

When I looked at the NWS forecasts, the NWS seems to have pulled back substantially on its estimate of snow totals for Flemington, which is in the area that was expected to have 1-3 inches; now it's less than 1; my guess is that there's not enough cold air. Similarly, Cherry Hill will have snow only in the early morning instead of all morning.

 

[RU848789]

When I looked at the NWS forecasts, the NWS seems to have pulled back substantially on its estimate of snow totals for Flemington, which is in the area that was expected to have 1-3 inches; now it's less than 1; my guess is that there's not enough cold air. Similarly, Cherry Hill will have snow only in the early morning instead of all morning.

That is correct. The secondary coastal low, which will form off the DE coast early on Thursday, will be pumping warm ocean air into our region on SE winds, which will quickly change any initial snow near I-95 and the coast to rain on Thursday morning, leading to a rain event with up to 1/2" of rain falling. The only area with winter weather advisories up are Carbon/Monroe Counties in the Poconos, where 2-4" are forecast; Sussex County is close with 1-3" forecast. Anywhere south of 80 will likely change to rain and get 1" or less of snow. At this point, just hoping for some mood flakes at the start of the event in Metuchen.

However, this is going to be a great storm for the ski resorts from the Catskills (4-8") through interior New England, where some places will likely get 12-18", as this system is likely to be undergoing "bombogenesis," which is just a cool word for rapid strengthening of a low pressure system (pressure drop greater than 24 mbar in 24 hours - will likely drop 35 mbar in 24 hrs), . Even in New England, coastal areas are likely to get very little snow (an inch or less in Boston and maybe 2-3" in Portland before changing to rain), as the storm will just be drawing in too much warm air. Will likely be some major winds and moderate coastal flooding in New England.

 

[bac2therac]

I dont think Flemington was ever in a 1-3 band. This thread ugh..why? If you are south of 80 do not expect any accumulating snow. Might be snow brief snow mixed in at that start for central jersey but its a rain event at this time.

 

[RU848789]

I dont think Flemington was ever in a 1-3 band. This thread ugh..why? If you are south of 80 do not expect any accumulating snow. Might be snow brief snow mixed in at that start for central jersey but its a rain event at this time.

You do realize there are people on this board who don't live in Hillsborough, don't you? This is a major winter storm that will affect millions and make for some great skiing during a week where many people like to ski. I imagine a few folks might be interested in that information - and if you're not, then don't read it. Although I'm sure to you it pales in comparison to the importance of your annual thread on bad Christmas songs.

 

[bac2therac]

Except it will not be a major winter storm in new jersey for anyone and you will have to go NW Jersey to see a shot at 1-3 inches if that happens

 

[retired711]

I dont think Flemington was ever in a 1-3 band. This thread ugh..why? If you are south of 80 do not expect any accumulating snow. Might be snow brief snow mixed in at that start for central jersey but its a rain event at this time.

The NWS had Flemington in that band: I check that forecast a lot to be sure that my fiancee will be able to drive around OK; she does a great deal of driving. I am glad that RU #s alerted us to the possibility of a storm, even though it now appears that the storm will not be significant for almost all of New Jersey.

 

[RocktheRac]

The NWS had Flemington in that band: I check that forecast a lot to be sure that my fiancee will be able to drive around OK; she does a great deal of driving. I am glad that RU #s alerted us to the possibility of a storm, even though it now appears that the storm will not be significant for almost all of New Jersey.

NWS never had Flemington in a 1-3 band. This is a non event and maybe Sussex Co. will get 2 inches. As far as a major snow storm yea in Boston/Vemont. Oh.... by the way. It may snow in Utah.

 

[retired711]

Repeating Bac's inaccurate statement does not make it more accurate.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

It ain't gonna snow no more no more it ain't gonna snow more

 

[bac2therac]

Repeating Bac's inaccurate statement does not make it more accurate.

its not really inaccurate Ive been paying attention and the initial forcecast had about an inch a few days ago, if you thought you were getting up to 3 inches in Flemington you were duped. That was never going to happen and I dont even think the weenies on americanwx would think you were getting 3 inches, even Numbers would probably agree you were never getting 3 inches there

 

[retired711]

Sometimes the discussion in the local forecast differs from the advisories, and this may have been one of these times. In any case, I'm sorry to have been so short; I am grading exams and it is *not* a pleasant experience!

 

[bac2therac]

I will agree that sometimes the NWS does put out conflicting stuff and tends to lump cities of Flemington and Somerville in with counties in PA that are most certainly much colder and get more snow. I would much rather they seperate NJ and PA counties because they can have very different weather

 

[retired711]

Yes, I have noticed this. People in the Flemington area tend to think their weather is like the Lehigh Valley's, but it doesn't seem so in reality.

 

[RU848789]

its not really inaccurate Ive been paying attention and the initial forcecast had about an inch a few days ago, if you thought you were getting up to 3 inches in Flemington you were duped. That was never going to happen and I dont even think the weenies on americanwx would think you were getting 3 inches, even Numbers would probably agree you were never getting 3 inches there

When I first posted on this, the NWS had the 1-2" swath just making it down to the Flemington area (but not in Hillsborough, NB or Edison); the SE edge of that line ran from about Stockton to Flemington to Bedminster to Morristown. Obviously, that line has been moved about 25-30 miles to the NW. When you're at the SE point of a line like that, you ought to be expecting an inch or so, but it's possible the point/click forecast was saying 1-2" or 1-3" for that area. Unfortunately, the NWS doesn't retain old forecasts/maps anywhere that I know of, which is why I've always been frustrated that their maps and other links are generally "live," meaning they only show the most current version.

 

[retired711]

My guess is that the NWS doesn't archive old forecasts for fear of being bashed to death by people comparing forecasts with eventual outcomes. I can sympathize; weather forecasting seems far from being an exact science because of gaps in our knowledge about the atmosphere.

 

[RU848789]

My guess is that the NWS doesn't archive old forecasts for fear of being bashed to death by people comparing forecasts with eventual outcomes. I can sympathize; weather forecasting seems far from being an exact science because of gaps in our knowledge about the atmosphere.

I actually emailed the IT director (who is a big RU football fan) from the NWS Philly office to ask if they have archived maps/forecasts (have never seen them and I've looked exhaustively, lol) and if not, why. I'd guess a combo of what you said, plus the extra cost/effort of having to have a system for it.

As an aside, while knowledge gaps of the physicochemical processes which form the basis of our understanding of the atmosphere do exist (as well as gaps in global 3-D data inputs), they pale in comparison to fundamental fact that weather is chaotic in nature, meaning the future state of the system is highly sensitive to small changes in initial conditions.

This means that even if we had perfect understanding of the science and had much better data inputs, we'd still have significant uncertainties and resulting forecast errors, because of chaos. It's why deterministic forecasting is typically useless beyond about 7-8 days (even though the models can run out to 15 days), as the degree of uncertainty which propagates over time becomes huge.

The best known representation of chaotic behavior is probably the Butterfly Effect, which was first published back in 1972 by Lorenz, in which he showed that a minor perturbation in initial conditions (a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil) can result in huge changes well downstream in the future (a tornado in Texas). It's been way too long since I was conversant with the underlying math, but I recall studying this in grad school and finding it fascinating.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

 

[retired711]

Thanks. My guess is that chaos theory also affects the dispersion of air pollution emitted by a factory or power plant, although perhaps not nearly as much. True?

 

[RU848789]

Thanks. My guess is that chaos theory also affects the dispersion of air pollution emitted by a factory or power plant, although perhaps not nearly as much. True?

Yes air pollution dispersion is also chaotic, but a single point source of pollution is a far simpler system to model than the weather. The initial conditions for the pollutant should be known very well and the only part of the "weather" that matters much for dispersion modeling is the local wind speed/direction, assuming one is only considering local impacts. By the time uncertainties, due to chaos, propagate out in time to become very large, any plume would have been diluted to negligible concentrations. The magic of dilution is why impacts from a single stack are unlikely to be significant beyond a few miles or tens of miles. If we're talking regional/global impacts, then we'd need to consider all the point sources (including cars).

 

[RocktheRac]

Lotta hot air being blown around here.:boxing:

 

[bac2therac]

is there any milk or bread left at the store?

 

[retired711]

Yes air pollution dispersion is also chaotic, but a single point source of pollution is a far simpler system to model than the weather. The initial conditions for the pollutant should be known very well and the only part of the "weather" that matters much for dispersion modeling is the local wind speed/direction, assuming one is only considering local impacts. By the time uncertainties, due to chaos, propagate out in time to become very large, any plume would have been diluted to negligible concentrations. The magic of dilution is why impacts from a single stack are unlikely to be significant beyond a few miles or tens of miles. If we're talking regional/global impacts, then we'd need to consider all the point sources (including cars).

Interestingly enough, the air quality models recommended by EPA are only accurate within a factor of two, and that's for the relatively simple situation of a single source. Apparently inputs like wind direction cannot be accurately derived from weather data.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Our owner is up in Vermont where they're expecting 20 inches of snow.

 

[RUPete]

The road conditions were dicier than expected closer to central NJ, but near or just north of 78. Received several dispatches for icy conditions and accidents on King George Road in Warren near 78 and Parsonage Hill Road off 24/78 in Livingston/Short Hills. I thought the problems may be a little further north, but this is Jersey and 78 can be the Mason-Dixon line for these events.