In more great NET news for RU, Kennesaw fell 32 spots to 192. A Q4 loss may be possible (241+ is Q4 for road game), they were at 133 earlier this year (they were briefly a Q2 game at one point) and have now fallen to 192. 241 does not seem impossible, doubt they fall that far, but this season is such a complete sh$tshow that anything is possible.
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
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I fear it doesn’t really matter anymore. Barring some miraculous turnaround on defense — which we all know isn’t coming — going to struggle to win even 8 games in the B1G.
My expectations have been adjusted. My ceiling previously was Sweet 16 with a chance at more. The ceiling now is probably NIT, and even that will be a struggle as we will likely end up with a sub-.500 record overall (plus, nobody cares about the NIT).
Yeah, feeling down about this team right now. Hard to care about NET rankings, resumes, quads, or anything else Tournament related.
Not coming down on you, appreciate the NET updates, just venting.
As many have said, Harper and Bailey won't play NIT. Regardless, it's so pathetic that NIT is our "ceiling" before Christmas that RU should turn it down.
I sadly think a sub .500 record like last season is now in play. This team simply can’t play defense just like last year’s team simply could not play offense.
well Seton Hall moves to 172 so they are starting to close in on becoming a Quad 3 win.
yep Kennesaws trip to the west coast saw them take it on the chin at Santa Clara 94-74 and San Jose State 89-65...but its the NIL that made us get outscored 40-15 at one point in that game.
Oh and say goodbye for now...and I think probably for good, RU's Quad 1 win over Penn State. The Nittany Lions 11 point win over Drexel had them falling to 32
Princeton up to 117...we shall see if they finish in the top 100 to become a Q2 loss...probably 50/50.
Columbia is 99. Notre Dame holds as a Q2 win at 97
Columbia is 99. Notre Dame holds as a Q2 win at 97
Ohio State vaulted all the way up to 22 with the neutral site win over Kentucky. Huge ace in the hole for them to have that NET so good given that they have large losses to Auburn and Maryland. They would be in the ncaa tourney today if selections were made.
Maryland is the highest Big 10 school at 8. Sadly for the Big 10. Oregon 13, Illinois 15 and UCLA at 19 put 4 B10 schools in the NET top 20.
The 3 likely schools in danger of missing the Big 10 tournament based on season performance probably come from this group.....88 Rutgers, 98 Washington, 101 USC, and 159 Minnesota
Maryland is the highest Big 10 school at 8. Sadly for the Big 10. Oregon 13, Illinois 15 and UCLA at 19 put 4 B10 schools in the NET top 20.
The 3 likely schools in danger of missing the Big 10 tournament based on season performance probably come from this group.....88 Rutgers, 98 Washington, 101 USC, and 159 Minnesota
Rutgers Wins Above Bubble is a ghastly 104 and equally ghastly is the 96 Strength of Record. Their non conference sos is 147 and overall it is 62
RU is currently 2-5 in Q1/2/3 games....absolutely horrific full stop
RU is currently 2-5 in Q1/2/3 games....absolutely horrific full stop
For Wins Above Bubble, what number does a team need to get that to to improve the resume since it’s new and I am not familiar with it? At least into the 60s similar to the NET?
What is left beyond Columbia at home which will be a Q3 game
Obviously there can be some shifts here and there..some positive, some negative.
at Indiana Q2
Wisconsin Q2
Purdue Q2
UCLA Q1
at Nebby Q1
at PSU Q1
Mich St Q1
at NW Q1
Michigan Q2
Illinois Q1
at Mary Q1
Iowa Q2
at Oreg Q1
at Wash Q2
USC Q3
at Mich Q1
at Purd Q1
Minny Q3
18 conference games left: 10 Quad 1 games, 6 Q2 games, and 2 Quad 3 games. Plenty of opportunities right?
The trouble is that only 2 of the 10 Quad 1 games are at the RAC, 1 at MSG (do not get me started), and 7 on the road
6 Quad 2 games and 4 are at home
2 Quad 3 games both at home.
RU currently 0-3 in Quad 1 and 2-0 in Quad 2, 0-2 in Q3, and 5-0 in Q4....RU is also a woeful 0-2 on the road and 1-3 neutral for a hideous 1-5 road/neutral mark
I am going to use the Seton Hall example from last year because it might be close to the Rutgers situation if they get on the bubble at 12-8 in league play and 19-12 overall.
SHU finished a very good Big East conference mark at 13-7. BUT conference record isnt even looked and we saw it in the past with Nebraska in the Big 10....we also saw RU finish 5th seed in the Big 10 two years ago and snubbed but they were 10-10.
I dont have SHUs next off hand coming into selection sunday but they were 5-8 Q1 and 4-3 in Q2 for a 9-11 Q1/2 mark and 2-1 in Q2 which put them below 500 in Q1/2/3 games at 11-12. They had a bad loss to Rutgers and 9 of their wins came from Q4 which is a big outlier. They did jackshit OOC with their biggest win a neutral site win over Missouri.
So even with 5 Q1 wins including a super win over UConn and another high level win over Marquette they were left out along with St Johns and Providence. All 3 had around 9-10 Q1/2 totals so RU is going to have to get to that number to be considered on the BUBBLE.
With 2 losses in Q3 already, both Q3 games are MANDATORY wins. That leaves 16 other games and RU would need to win 9 of them to finish 12-8. Assuming 9-7 in the Q1/2 games, that would bring them mark in Q1/2 games to 11-10...Q3 would be 3-2 and overall that would put RU at Q1/2/3: 14-12 and a decent shot for SHU to move up to Q3 (although Minny can move to Q4)
Those numbers are doable at 19-12/12-8 and RU will have a very good overall sos and at least slightly above average non conference sos. The concern for me is how many Q1 wins...it could be as little as being 3-3-10 in Q1 and 8-0 in Q2!....weird but that could work. The bad thing is there is NOTHING out of conference to point to. That could be overlooked if RU didnt have a really bad loss at Kennesaw. I wish this profile was clean. The Q3 loss to Princeton isnt a bad look. Kennesaw is devestating.
Now if RU goes 11-9 in league that is only 18-13 and I do not think that gets it done.....puts them 10-11 in Q1/2..similar to shu and similar with no wins of note and a really bad loss to boot..
Then add RU needs to win some road games beyond Washington...preferably a big name like Oregon or Maryland or Michigan unless you think RU can run the table at home and pick up high tier Q1 wins over UCLA and Illinois and then they might only need to beat Washington and say a Northwestern to finish 12-8 in league.
Its a very narrow path but there is a path. I have seen nothing from this team to show they can do it but it is still there. Beat Columbia and go 11-7 the rest of the way in the Big 10. The NET simply sucks now and that will always lag even with this scenario but it would at least move somewhere in the 50s to 60s range.
Start by winning at Indiana which is probably the best chance for a road win besides Washington. Then come back to the RAC and win 2 of 3 vs Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA. There is always a chance schools like Purdue move back up to Q1 or Michigan later in the year so keep an eye on that.
Obviously there can be some shifts here and there..some positive, some negative.
at Indiana Q2
Wisconsin Q2
Purdue Q2
UCLA Q1
at Nebby Q1
at PSU Q1
Mich St Q1
at NW Q1
Michigan Q2
Illinois Q1
at Mary Q1
Iowa Q2
at Oreg Q1
at Wash Q2
USC Q3
at Mich Q1
at Purd Q1
Minny Q3
18 conference games left: 10 Quad 1 games, 6 Q2 games, and 2 Quad 3 games. Plenty of opportunities right?
The trouble is that only 2 of the 10 Quad 1 games are at the RAC, 1 at MSG (do not get me started), and 7 on the road
6 Quad 2 games and 4 are at home
2 Quad 3 games both at home.
RU currently 0-3 in Quad 1 and 2-0 in Quad 2, 0-2 in Q3, and 5-0 in Q4....RU is also a woeful 0-2 on the road and 1-3 neutral for a hideous 1-5 road/neutral mark
I am going to use the Seton Hall example from last year because it might be close to the Rutgers situation if they get on the bubble at 12-8 in league play and 19-12 overall.
SHU finished a very good Big East conference mark at 13-7. BUT conference record isnt even looked and we saw it in the past with Nebraska in the Big 10....we also saw RU finish 5th seed in the Big 10 two years ago and snubbed but they were 10-10.
I dont have SHUs next off hand coming into selection sunday but they were 5-8 Q1 and 4-3 in Q2 for a 9-11 Q1/2 mark and 2-1 in Q2 which put them below 500 in Q1/2/3 games at 11-12. They had a bad loss to Rutgers and 9 of their wins came from Q4 which is a big outlier. They did jackshit OOC with their biggest win a neutral site win over Missouri.
So even with 5 Q1 wins including a super win over UConn and another high level win over Marquette they were left out along with St Johns and Providence. All 3 had around 9-10 Q1/2 totals so RU is going to have to get to that number to be considered on the BUBBLE.
With 2 losses in Q3 already, both Q3 games are MANDATORY wins. That leaves 16 other games and RU would need to win 9 of them to finish 12-8. Assuming 9-7 in the Q1/2 games, that would bring them mark in Q1/2 games to 11-10...Q3 would be 3-2 and overall that would put RU at Q1/2/3: 14-12 and a decent shot for SHU to move up to Q3 (although Minny can move to Q4)
Those numbers are doable at 19-12/12-8 and RU will have a very good overall sos and at least slightly above average non conference sos. The concern for me is how many Q1 wins...it could be as little as being 3-3-10 in Q1 and 8-0 in Q2!....weird but that could work. The bad thing is there is NOTHING out of conference to point to. That could be overlooked if RU didnt have a really bad loss at Kennesaw. I wish this profile was clean. The Q3 loss to Princeton isnt a bad look. Kennesaw is devestating.
Now if RU goes 11-9 in league that is only 18-13 and I do not think that gets it done.....puts them 10-11 in Q1/2..similar to shu and similar with no wins of note and a really bad loss to boot..
Then add RU needs to win some road games beyond Washington...preferably a big name like Oregon or Maryland or Michigan unless you think RU can run the table at home and pick up high tier Q1 wins over UCLA and Illinois and then they might only need to beat Washington and say a Northwestern to finish 12-8 in league.
Its a very narrow path but there is a path. I have seen nothing from this team to show they can do it but it is still there. Beat Columbia and go 11-7 the rest of the way in the Big 10. The NET simply sucks now and that will always lag even with this scenario but it would at least move somewhere in the 50s to 60s range.
Start by winning at Indiana which is probably the best chance for a road win besides Washington. Then come back to the RAC and win 2 of 3 vs Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA. There is always a chance schools like Purdue move back up to Q1 or Michigan later in the year so keep an eye on that.
i never paid attention to WAB before. @Greene Rice FIG can give a better explanation but now its been added to the Team Sheets.
Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a metric used to measure how much better a basketball team is than a "bubble" team, which is a team that is on the verge of making the postseason:
- Explanation: WAB is the difference between the number of wins a team has and the number of wins an average bubble team would have against the same schedule. For example, if a team wins a game against the best team in the country, and an average bubble team would have a 20% chance of winning that game, the WAB for that game would be +0.80.
T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
Excellent breakdown, seems like we keep doing break downs of chunks of games and this team continually comes up short. First it was Vegas Week, hopefully go 3-1 but at least go 2-2, what did they do? They go 1-3. Then it was December, with 5 games, the goal was go 4-1 and right the ship and maybe get a little lucky and go 5-0. What have they done? They sit at 2-2, and at best can go 3-2. They come up short on every goal, obviously hoping for 4-0 or 3-1 for first 4 games in January, but like these other groups of games this group is more likely to only deliver 2-2. If we could defend this year, we would be a second weekend tourney team for sure, but this team can’t stop a nosebleed.
yup and now they are forced to basically go 3-1 in those next 4 games. I do think Wisconsin and Purdue arent THAT good. RU can beat at the RAC with a similar type performance vs PSU. Beating Indiana on the road might be the key to the season.
The loss yesterday wasnt bad per say, its just that i think 18-13/11-9 is likely wiped off the table at this point in making the tourney.
I wonder if the board would be celebrating the win if Pierce missed. It wouldnt have changed my thinking overall that we are in trouble playing this way.
Yesterday was an opportunity for a turning the corner moment in showing that this team can play ncaa level basketball....instead it further cemented what this team truly is...not very good, capable of stretches of good play but no matter how you look at it a historically bad defensive team and wasting 2 once in a lifetime talents
The loss yesterday wasnt bad per say, its just that i think 18-13/11-9 is likely wiped off the table at this point in making the tourney.
I wonder if the board would be celebrating the win if Pierce missed. It wouldnt have changed my thinking overall that we are in trouble playing this way.
Yesterday was an opportunity for a turning the corner moment in showing that this team can play ncaa level basketball....instead it further cemented what this team truly is...not very good, capable of stretches of good play but no matter how you look at it a historically bad defensive team and wasting 2 once in a lifetime talents
The board likely would have celebrated the win, but I think only because a team that is desperate for wins managed to squeak out another win and avoid the Q3 loss. But I don’t think they would have been celebrating when measuring this team with the on court eye test. Yesterday was probably a huge turning point for the fanbase as far as many more fans taking on a negative viewpoint towards this team. Even Mike and Richie’s Pod today flipped to a more negative outlook for this team overall, which is totally understood based on what we have seen. I was trying to stay positive and enjoy the ride this year, but yesterday broke the spirit for me, maybe for others as well. I saw the flaws all year but yesterday broke the hope of those flaws maybe changing, don’t foresee them changing.
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