In more great NET news for RU, Kennesaw fell 32 spots to 192. A Q4 loss may be possible (241+ is Q4 for road game), they were at 133 earlier this year (they were briefly a Q2 game at one point) and have now fallen to 192. 241 does not seem impossible, doubt they fall that far, but this season is such a complete sh$tshow that anything is possible.
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
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I fear it doesn’t really matter anymore. Barring some miraculous turnaround on defense — which we all know isn’t coming — going to struggle to win even 8 games in the B1G.
My expectations have been adjusted. My ceiling previously was Sweet 16 with a chance at more. The ceiling now is probably NIT, and even that will be a struggle as we will likely end up with a sub-.500 record overall (plus, nobody cares about the NIT).
Yeah, feeling down about this team right now. Hard to care about NET rankings, resumes, quads, or anything else Tournament related.
Not coming down on you, appreciate the NET updates, just venting.
As many have said, Harper and Bailey won't play NIT. Regardless, it's so pathetic that NIT is our "ceiling" before Christmas that RU should turn it down.
I sadly think a sub .500 record like last season is now in play. This team simply can’t play defense just like last year’s team simply could not play offense.
well Seton Hall moves to 172 so they are starting to close in on becoming a Quad 3 win.
yep Kennesaws trip to the west coast saw them take it on the chin at Santa Clara 94-74 and San Jose State 89-65...but its the NIL that made us get outscored 40-15 at one point in that game.
Oh and say goodbye for now...and I think probably for good, RU's Quad 1 win over Penn State. The Nittany Lions 11 point win over Drexel had them falling to 32
Princeton up to 117...we shall see if they finish in the top 100 to become a Q2 loss...probably 50/50.
Columbia is 99. Notre Dame holds as a Q2 win at 97
Columbia is 99. Notre Dame holds as a Q2 win at 97
Ohio State vaulted all the way up to 22 with the neutral site win over Kentucky. Huge ace in the hole for them to have that NET so good given that they have large losses to Auburn and Maryland. They would be in the ncaa tourney today if selections were made.
Maryland is the highest Big 10 school at 8. Sadly for the Big 10. Oregon 13, Illinois 15 and UCLA at 19 put 4 B10 schools in the NET top 20.
The 3 likely schools in danger of missing the Big 10 tournament based on season performance probably come from this group.....88 Rutgers, 98 Washington, 101 USC, and 159 Minnesota
Maryland is the highest Big 10 school at 8. Sadly for the Big 10. Oregon 13, Illinois 15 and UCLA at 19 put 4 B10 schools in the NET top 20.
The 3 likely schools in danger of missing the Big 10 tournament based on season performance probably come from this group.....88 Rutgers, 98 Washington, 101 USC, and 159 Minnesota
Rutgers Wins Above Bubble is a ghastly 104 and equally ghastly is the 96 Strength of Record. Their non conference sos is 147 and overall it is 62
RU is currently 2-5 in Q1/2/3 games....absolutely horrific full stop
RU is currently 2-5 in Q1/2/3 games....absolutely horrific full stop
For Wins Above Bubble, what number does a team need to get that to to improve the resume since it’s new and I am not familiar with it? At least into the 60s similar to the NET?
What is left beyond Columbia at home which will be a Q3 game
Obviously there can be some shifts here and there..some positive, some negative.
at Indiana Q2
Wisconsin Q2
Purdue Q2
UCLA Q1
at Nebby Q1
at PSU Q1
Mich St Q1
at NW Q1
Michigan Q2
Illinois Q1
at Mary Q1
Iowa Q2
at Oreg Q1
at Wash Q2
USC Q3
at Mich Q1
at Purd Q1
Minny Q3
18 conference games left: 10 Quad 1 games, 6 Q2 games, and 2 Quad 3 games. Plenty of opportunities right?
The trouble is that only 2 of the 10 Quad 1 games are at the RAC, 1 at MSG (do not get me started), and 7 on the road
6 Quad 2 games and 4 are at home
2 Quad 3 games both at home.
RU currently 0-3 in Quad 1 and 2-0 in Quad 2, 0-2 in Q3, and 5-0 in Q4....RU is also a woeful 0-2 on the road and 1-3 neutral for a hideous 1-5 road/neutral mark
I am going to use the Seton Hall example from last year because it might be close to the Rutgers situation if they get on the bubble at 12-8 in league play and 19-12 overall.
SHU finished a very good Big East conference mark at 13-7. BUT conference record isnt even looked and we saw it in the past with Nebraska in the Big 10....we also saw RU finish 5th seed in the Big 10 two years ago and snubbed but they were 10-10.
I dont have SHUs next off hand coming into selection sunday but they were 5-8 Q1 and 4-3 in Q2 for a 9-11 Q1/2 mark and 2-1 in Q2 which put them below 500 in Q1/2/3 games at 11-12. They had a bad loss to Rutgers and 9 of their wins came from Q4 which is a big outlier. They did jackshit OOC with their biggest win a neutral site win over Missouri.
So even with 5 Q1 wins including a super win over UConn and another high level win over Marquette they were left out along with St Johns and Providence. All 3 had around 9-10 Q1/2 totals so RU is going to have to get to that number to be considered on the BUBBLE.
With 2 losses in Q3 already, both Q3 games are MANDATORY wins. That leaves 16 other games and RU would need to win 9 of them to finish 12-8. Assuming 9-7 in the Q1/2 games, that would bring them mark in Q1/2 games to 11-10...Q3 would be 3-2 and overall that would put RU at Q1/2/3: 14-12 and a decent shot for SHU to move up to Q3 (although Minny can move to Q4)
Those numbers are doable at 19-12/12-8 and RU will have a very good overall sos and at least slightly above average non conference sos. The concern for me is how many Q1 wins...it could be as little as being 3-3-10 in Q1 and 8-0 in Q2!....weird but that could work. The bad thing is there is NOTHING out of conference to point to. That could be overlooked if RU didnt have a really bad loss at Kennesaw. I wish this profile was clean. The Q3 loss to Princeton isnt a bad look. Kennesaw is devestating.
Now if RU goes 11-9 in league that is only 18-13 and I do not think that gets it done.....puts them 10-11 in Q1/2..similar to shu and similar with no wins of note and a really bad loss to boot..
Then add RU needs to win some road games beyond Washington...preferably a big name like Oregon or Maryland or Michigan unless you think RU can run the table at home and pick up high tier Q1 wins over UCLA and Illinois and then they might only need to beat Washington and say a Northwestern to finish 12-8 in league.
Its a very narrow path but there is a path. I have seen nothing from this team to show they can do it but it is still there. Beat Columbia and go 11-7 the rest of the way in the Big 10. The NET simply sucks now and that will always lag even with this scenario but it would at least move somewhere in the 50s to 60s range.
Start by winning at Indiana which is probably the best chance for a road win besides Washington. Then come back to the RAC and win 2 of 3 vs Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA. There is always a chance schools like Purdue move back up to Q1 or Michigan later in the year so keep an eye on that.
Obviously there can be some shifts here and there..some positive, some negative.
at Indiana Q2
Wisconsin Q2
Purdue Q2
UCLA Q1
at Nebby Q1
at PSU Q1
Mich St Q1
at NW Q1
Michigan Q2
Illinois Q1
at Mary Q1
Iowa Q2
at Oreg Q1
at Wash Q2
USC Q3
at Mich Q1
at Purd Q1
Minny Q3
18 conference games left: 10 Quad 1 games, 6 Q2 games, and 2 Quad 3 games. Plenty of opportunities right?
The trouble is that only 2 of the 10 Quad 1 games are at the RAC, 1 at MSG (do not get me started), and 7 on the road
6 Quad 2 games and 4 are at home
2 Quad 3 games both at home.
RU currently 0-3 in Quad 1 and 2-0 in Quad 2, 0-2 in Q3, and 5-0 in Q4....RU is also a woeful 0-2 on the road and 1-3 neutral for a hideous 1-5 road/neutral mark
I am going to use the Seton Hall example from last year because it might be close to the Rutgers situation if they get on the bubble at 12-8 in league play and 19-12 overall.
SHU finished a very good Big East conference mark at 13-7. BUT conference record isnt even looked and we saw it in the past with Nebraska in the Big 10....we also saw RU finish 5th seed in the Big 10 two years ago and snubbed but they were 10-10.
I dont have SHUs next off hand coming into selection sunday but they were 5-8 Q1 and 4-3 in Q2 for a 9-11 Q1/2 mark and 2-1 in Q2 which put them below 500 in Q1/2/3 games at 11-12. They had a bad loss to Rutgers and 9 of their wins came from Q4 which is a big outlier. They did jackshit OOC with their biggest win a neutral site win over Missouri.
So even with 5 Q1 wins including a super win over UConn and another high level win over Marquette they were left out along with St Johns and Providence. All 3 had around 9-10 Q1/2 totals so RU is going to have to get to that number to be considered on the BUBBLE.
With 2 losses in Q3 already, both Q3 games are MANDATORY wins. That leaves 16 other games and RU would need to win 9 of them to finish 12-8. Assuming 9-7 in the Q1/2 games, that would bring them mark in Q1/2 games to 11-10...Q3 would be 3-2 and overall that would put RU at Q1/2/3: 14-12 and a decent shot for SHU to move up to Q3 (although Minny can move to Q4)
Those numbers are doable at 19-12/12-8 and RU will have a very good overall sos and at least slightly above average non conference sos. The concern for me is how many Q1 wins...it could be as little as being 3-3-10 in Q1 and 8-0 in Q2!....weird but that could work. The bad thing is there is NOTHING out of conference to point to. That could be overlooked if RU didnt have a really bad loss at Kennesaw. I wish this profile was clean. The Q3 loss to Princeton isnt a bad look. Kennesaw is devestating.
Now if RU goes 11-9 in league that is only 18-13 and I do not think that gets it done.....puts them 10-11 in Q1/2..similar to shu and similar with no wins of note and a really bad loss to boot..
Then add RU needs to win some road games beyond Washington...preferably a big name like Oregon or Maryland or Michigan unless you think RU can run the table at home and pick up high tier Q1 wins over UCLA and Illinois and then they might only need to beat Washington and say a Northwestern to finish 12-8 in league.
Its a very narrow path but there is a path. I have seen nothing from this team to show they can do it but it is still there. Beat Columbia and go 11-7 the rest of the way in the Big 10. The NET simply sucks now and that will always lag even with this scenario but it would at least move somewhere in the 50s to 60s range.
Start by winning at Indiana which is probably the best chance for a road win besides Washington. Then come back to the RAC and win 2 of 3 vs Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA. There is always a chance schools like Purdue move back up to Q1 or Michigan later in the year so keep an eye on that.
i never paid attention to WAB before. @Greene Rice FIG can give a better explanation but now its been added to the Team Sheets.
Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a metric used to measure how much better a basketball team is than a "bubble" team, which is a team that is on the verge of making the postseason:
- Explanation: WAB is the difference between the number of wins a team has and the number of wins an average bubble team would have against the same schedule. For example, if a team wins a game against the best team in the country, and an average bubble team would have a 20% chance of winning that game, the WAB for that game would be +0.80.
T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
Excellent breakdown, seems like we keep doing break downs of chunks of games and this team continually comes up short. First it was Vegas Week, hopefully go 3-1 but at least go 2-2, what did they do? They go 1-3. Then it was December, with 5 games, the goal was go 4-1 and right the ship and maybe get a little lucky and go 5-0. What have they done? They sit at 2-2, and at best can go 3-2. They come up short on every goal, obviously hoping for 4-0 or 3-1 for first 4 games in January, but like these other groups of games this group is more likely to only deliver 2-2. If we could defend this year, we would be a second weekend tourney team for sure, but this team can’t stop a nosebleed.
yup and now they are forced to basically go 3-1 in those next 4 games. I do think Wisconsin and Purdue arent THAT good. RU can beat at the RAC with a similar type performance vs PSU. Beating Indiana on the road might be the key to the season.
The loss yesterday wasnt bad per say, its just that i think 18-13/11-9 is likely wiped off the table at this point in making the tourney.
I wonder if the board would be celebrating the win if Pierce missed. It wouldnt have changed my thinking overall that we are in trouble playing this way.
Yesterday was an opportunity for a turning the corner moment in showing that this team can play ncaa level basketball....instead it further cemented what this team truly is...not very good, capable of stretches of good play but no matter how you look at it a historically bad defensive team and wasting 2 once in a lifetime talents
The loss yesterday wasnt bad per say, its just that i think 18-13/11-9 is likely wiped off the table at this point in making the tourney.
I wonder if the board would be celebrating the win if Pierce missed. It wouldnt have changed my thinking overall that we are in trouble playing this way.
Yesterday was an opportunity for a turning the corner moment in showing that this team can play ncaa level basketball....instead it further cemented what this team truly is...not very good, capable of stretches of good play but no matter how you look at it a historically bad defensive team and wasting 2 once in a lifetime talents
The board likely would have celebrated the win, but I think only because a team that is desperate for wins managed to squeak out another win and avoid the Q3 loss. But I don’t think they would have been celebrating when measuring this team with the on court eye test. Yesterday was probably a huge turning point for the fanbase as far as many more fans taking on a negative viewpoint towards this team. Even Mike and Richie’s Pod today flipped to a more negative outlook for this team overall, which is totally understood based on what we have seen. I was trying to stay positive and enjoy the ride this year, but yesterday broke the spirit for me, maybe for others as well. I saw the flaws all year but yesterday broke the hope of those flaws maybe changing, don’t foresee them changing.
NET sputters to 90. Notre Dame at 91 and USC up to 92. Columbia is 98.
Maryland is the top Big 10 school now up to 7.
Maryland is the top Big 10 school now up to 7.
I actually expected the result after watching the first 5 minutes and walked out of the Pru in an "oh well" mood feeling that at least the trip was entertaining. Every close game with this program/guy is the same. Lost the usual 5 point lead to claw back and fail at the end when not making some miracle shot. He doesn't execute the plays but he sure as hell has a terrible time putting them together.
The good news is Notre Dame NET moved up to 91…..the bad news is Notre Dame’s NET has almost passed Rutgers……oh the irony
We won the last close game. We haven't been bad in close games under Pikiell:
2016-17: 5-5
2017-18: 4-6
2018-19: 6-5
2019-20: 5-7
2021-21: 6-3
2021-22: 7-7
2022-23: 6-7
2023-24: 4-1
2024-25: 3-4
Total: 46-45
The problem is letting the game with Princeton be a close game in the first place.
The Princeton comment is correct. Don't know what your numbers are based on..just final score? I'm think more like games we were either +/- 5 points last few minutes.
But regardless of how you split it...and I didn't say bad. 500% isn't bad. But that's what we get.
I'm looking for better and before anyone asks. I don't know who. That's not my Monkey, Not my Circus to figure out. Others are paid plenty to do that. (love the stats btw. Always appreciate the numbers in a debate or convo)
In theory the WAB tries to quantify how many wins the bubble team would win with a specific team's schedule compared to how the actual team did.i never paid attention to WAB before. @Greene Rice FIG can give a better explanation but now its been added to the Team Sheets.
Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a metric used to measure how much better a basketball team is than a "bubble" team, which is a team that is on the verge of making the postseason:
Here they have RU as 112 rated in WAB so dont know why the difference between the NET mark of 104
- Explanation: WAB is the difference between the number of wins a team has and the number of wins an average bubble team would have against the same schedule. For example, if a team wins a game against the best team in the country, and an average bubble team would have a 20% chance of winning that game, the WAB for that game would be +0.80.
T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.barttorvik.com
The bubble team would be 8.5-3.5 with our schedule so far and we are 7-5 so our WAB is -1.5 wins. We should have won Kennesaw State and tied Princeton (JUST A JOKE).
According to bart's numbers for the next 4 games
BEAT COLUMBIA add .1 to WAB
LOSE COLUMBIA subtract -.9 to WAB
BEAT INDIANA add .63 to WAB
LOST INDIANA subtract -.37 to WAB
BEAT WISCONSIN add .42 to WAB
LOSE WISCONSIN subtract -.48 to WAB
BEAT PURDUE add .45 to WAB
LOSE PURDUE subtract -.55 to WAB
Win all 4 and we are +.1 WAB
Now 65 teams according to BART have positive WABs and we know there will be no more than 45 or so at large bids.
#45 is a +.5 WAB
#45 is a +.5 WAB
2024 NCAA teams that defied WAB
LEFT OUT
Indiana St +1.9 (26th)
Princeton +1.9 (25th)
SHU +1.1 (39th)
Oklahoma +1.1 (41st)
Syracuse +.7 (45th)
PUT IN
Taxeas A&M -.6 (63rd)
Mich St -.4 (62nd)
Oregon -.4 (60th)
Miss St -.3 (58th)
New Mexico -.2 (53rd)
LEFT OUT
Indiana St +1.9 (26th)
Princeton +1.9 (25th)
SHU +1.1 (39th)
Oklahoma +1.1 (41st)
Syracuse +.7 (45th)
PUT IN
Taxeas A&M -.6 (63rd)
Mich St -.4 (62nd)
Oregon -.4 (60th)
Miss St -.3 (58th)
New Mexico -.2 (53rd)
Close games involve a lot of luck. You aren't going to get a coach that is all that much better than .500 long term in close games. The way to be better is to win comfortably and avoid having it come down to a couple of plays in the waning seconds.
This is an interesting debate.....I am leaning towards your hypothesis
"Win all 4 and we are . 1 WAB"? Wouldnt it be +1.6? Edit: nevermind that's with the negative 1.5 starting point. Thanks.
for the record.....18 wins (with SOS staying constant) puts us at -.1 WAB and 19 wins puts us at +.9 WAB
SO we can debate how much committee looks at conference tournament games.......
I think 19 wins with a 1st round loss would have our WAB at +.3 ish
Certainly has the feel of 19 wins being on the fence and 20 being golden.
MAJOR CAVEAT......NCAA doesn't look at WAB
SO we can debate how much committee looks at conference tournament games.......
I think 19 wins with a 1st round loss would have our WAB at +.3 ish
Certainly has the feel of 19 wins being on the fence and 20 being golden.
MAJOR CAVEAT......NCAA doesn't look at WAB
Ru is currenty 101 WAB which DOES appear for the first time on the team sheets the selection committee uses
Looks like the ncaa is using their own system perhaps something to do with NET rankings
Not sure if we have disagreed about this OR you know that committee didn't care about WAB so you just dismissed it. I think the latter.
I think WAB is the most pure way. Evaluate the schedule. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. Losing by a small amount to a godd team shouldnt mean didly and beating a bad team by 2 shouldn't mean didly. Games are played to either be won or lost.
I think WAB is the most pure way. Evaluate the schedule. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. Losing by a small amount to a godd team shouldnt mean didly and beating a bad team by 2 shouldn't mean didly. Games are played to either be won or lost.
BArt still has a little preseason bias and NET has zero...probably the difference
Excellent early BAC , which I know you despise , but at least you show hope , not optimism but hope. The hope is the number of Quad 1 and 2 games ahead, which is almost all games.
Pike is stubborn and it has bit him in the ass. Saturday , he went with a strategy of limiting Princeton’s 3 point makes and although it limited their attempts it did not work. In the first half , our guys were overplaying Princeton guys instead of letting them catch the ball and stay in front. Even ACE and Dylan got caught in back doors literally for no reason. Just stay in front.
Then in the second half , he allows JMike to control the offense and not Dylan who only has 5 after 17 in the first. Dylan so unselfish that he dished to JMike on fast break instead of taking it himself and of course Jmike gets swatted and doesn’t even create a foul. Then defensively he allows Henderson to pull the NBA playbook and identify the mismatch and exploit it with Lee having Martini on him 4 straight times And Pierce abusing smaller guys like Jordan for game winner. Now Jmike was absolutely horrendous on not fighting over the screen and staying with Lee but Pike ‘s stubbornness cost us the game. He has somehow believed this team will play defense and get stops and rim protect and rebound . All he says after a loss is we didn’t get a stop. Instead of coaching and changing defenses to zone , 1/3/1 half court trap or God forbid double teaming Lee to get the ball out of his hands or double teaming Pierce. The instruction from him yesterday was stay with your man. How else can you explain why Jmike who was the closest did not double team Pierce and go for the steal when he was backing down Jordan. They all followed his instruction and did not have the in game basketball IQ to play team defense and instead followed Pike ‘s instruction of cling to their man. Just a terrible calculation by Pike. His strong stubborn belief that he as a defensive coach and guru can get players to play defense has been a total fail to date and cost us games. We finally have an offense that can win games and the worst defense of the Pike era.
To make all this Net stuff and Quad 1 and 2 matter he has to stop being stubborn and constantly change defenses especially when he sees the other team getting too comfortable on offense or when they are trying to exploit a mismatch. Super disappointed in the defense of Jmike , Jeremiah and Jordan , 3 players that were previously known as above average defenders who are playing crappy defense letting anybody and everybody drive past them. Pike must see it on film and change as a coach and from his tendencies because the players are letting him down . If he does then all these Quad 1 and 2 games are in play. There is no one in the Big 10 as good as the top 5 teams in the SEC , Auburn , Tennessee , Alabama , Florida and Texas A& M . With our offense we can win the conference games if Pike makes the great coaching adjustment and stops the game long man to man defense. It also wouldn’t hurt if he mandated the whole team rebound and if they don’t they sit next to him all game.
We have 2 first round draft picks which makes any given day possible every game. At this point, it’s all about avoiding having to play a game on the first day of the BIG tournament. No super star teams in the conference. I see the autobid as a more likely outcome for us than collecting the wins we would need to secure an At Large bid.
My opinion is it would be hard to have 13+ losses on selection day with the pair of losses we have to Kennesaw and Princeton on the resume. Folks will point to the Lafayette and UMass losses but we simply don’t have the opportunities to pick up the kind of wins that are needed to withstand a high loss count that includes bad midmajor losses. I don’t think Kennesaw being a little better than Lafayette matters much. We only play 5 more games against teams that are currently ranked - 3 of them are to teams outside the top 20.
Bart's WAB doesn't seem to be quite correctly calibrated.
For example, a zero WAB would currently be #66. But #66 is not good enough to be an at large pick, you need to be like #45 or so. I've noticed similar issues in other years. Last season (this includes the postseason games so not perfect) a zero WAB would be #55. A +1.0 would be #41 or 42. I think you definitely want to be at a +1 or so in order to comfortably be a team that would be selected if the tournament was actually selected using WAB.
Its appearing on the team sheet for the very first time so it has some slight importance but not instrumental in selecting...perhaps the committee glancing to see if an outlier exists
I am sure they knew Indiana state and SHU were outliers last year...
where did you have them last year?
Its hard to have double digit wins with such a woeful defense/rebounding.Teams should win after scoring 82 points.
