I'd have thought that the way the league breaks down would more likely help than hurt us. (Admittedly, I haven't looked specifically at our schedule to check/home away. In previous years where this huge league might have three top ten teams, esp. if road, we'd be marking those down as sure losses, or almost "sure." With the current status of league (eight teams in top 32, as of last week's rating) and our competitiveness against 'Bama and A&M at neutral sight, regardless of ESPN percentage gauge, we have a real shot in every game. (Now we just gotta do it.) Is there a magic number that separates Quad 1 vs Quad 2 wins home and away? As examples, a road win over #30? A home win over #17?
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
It is just winning because the NET doesn’t matter, and barring extremely weird circumstances where we go 10-3 in 1 point games or something the NET will take care of itself if we win enough games.
Squeaking by bad teams is a bad sign for the future because it generally indicates you aren’t that good, but it doesn’t matter by itself.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.
So in conference games RU has like 12 Q1 games left and 3 Q2, 2 Q3 and a Q4 home unless Minnesota rises
RU is currently 1-3 in Q1 and 1-0 in Q2...(ND is barely a Q2 and I fear will become Q3) RU want to finish at least 10-8 in league (11-9 overall). If you give them the Q3 and Q4 home wins, RU would need to find 7 wins in the remaining 15 Q1/2 games. 7-8 in those games would put RU 9-12 in Q1/2 games which puts them in play but its a borderline situation..how many Q1 wins are there..do they go 5-7 in Q1 to be 6-10...well thats a decent number but can they do that, I think they have to do that.....11-9/19-12 is a scary place to be given a bad loss and ND our best ooc win is going to likely be a Q3 and our overall predictive and NET metrics will lag alll season long.
Im taking a sobering look and seeing a mark like 5-11 vs Q1 and 4-0 in Q2 and not liking things, its very borderline at 9-11 Q1/2, one bad loss isnt bad to KSU but that type of resume might need to be clean given there is nothing of note ooc
if we run down the schedule
MUST WINS
Columbia and Princeton: any loss here and realistically its not happening
MUST WINS
USC
Minnesota
at Washington
TOSS UPS HOME...will have to win 5-6 of these
Wisconsin...a game RU should expect to win
Purdue...true toss up but they are not as good as earlier thought
UCLA...toughest of the 3 but perhaps the feather in your cap kind of victory they most need
Michigan State at MSG...brutal decision to move this game from the RAC...you almost have to get this one
Michigan...most improved, tough matchup
Illinois...great team but not as good on the road
Iowa....seems to have RUs number
TOSS UPS ROAD....can they sneak 2
Indiana...big opportunity to make a statement to start the new year
Nebraska...tough place to play but winnable
Penn State...will obviously be tough given the game at the RAC
Northwestern...well coached and their style will give us fits
Maryland....very tough this year defensively, would take a huge effort
Oregon...would be the best win of the year if they did it but put this as most likely loss
Michigan...tough spot
Purdue...tough spot
Give RU the 3 must wins, can they find 8 more in that group above...
Wisconsin
Purdue
Mich State
Michigan
Illinois
Iowa
at Indiana
at Nebraska
or swap out a home win for another road win at Penn State or Northwestern
That is your path to 12-8
MUST WINS
Columbia and Princeton: any loss here and realistically its not happening
MUST WINS
USC
Minnesota
at Washington
TOSS UPS HOME...will have to win 5-6 of these
Wisconsin...a game RU should expect to win
Purdue...true toss up but they are not as good as earlier thought
UCLA...toughest of the 3 but perhaps the feather in your cap kind of victory they most need
Michigan State at MSG...brutal decision to move this game from the RAC...you almost have to get this one
Michigan...most improved, tough matchup
Illinois...great team but not as good on the road
Iowa....seems to have RUs number
TOSS UPS ROAD....can they sneak 2
Indiana...big opportunity to make a statement to start the new year
Nebraska...tough place to play but winnable
Penn State...will obviously be tough given the game at the RAC
Northwestern...well coached and their style will give us fits
Maryland....very tough this year defensively, would take a huge effort
Oregon...would be the best win of the year if they did it but put this as most likely loss
Michigan...tough spot
Purdue...tough spot
Give RU the 3 must wins, can they find 8 more in that group above...
Wisconsin
Purdue
Mich State
Michigan
Illinois
Iowa
at Indiana
at Nebraska
or swap out a home win for another road win at Penn State or Northwestern
That is your path to 12-8
People will bring up how we won four consecutive top 25 games to right the ship so nothing is impossible. But I agree it's not going to happen if they blow one of these. And I just have a really bad feeling it's going to happen, unless Pike can convince Ace to just focus on defense and not let the opponent touch the glass in these two games.
Yes, of course they need to beat Princeton and Columbia. That was also the point of the SHU game, just get the win, which they did. I am just saying that the Kennesaw loss was not season ending, back in 2020-21 a win over Merrimack with only 48 points scored by RU to go with three straight losses to DePaul, Lafayette, and UMass was not even season ending as it turned out. That is the only point, the Kennesaw loss did not end this team’s season. It wasn’t helpful, no doubt, but it can be overcome. Will they overcome it? We shall see.
I totally get what you’re saying, and when you add the SHU game to the eye test we have already seen from this team, it did not decrease concerns with this team. But, if we are 19-12 or 20-11 and the committee is in a room, are they really going to say “Rutgers didn’t look good against Seton Hall and only won by 3” and hold it against us? Doubtful, but if we lost and we are 18-13 or 19-12 and it’s a Q4 loss, it sure will be held against us. I can only speak for myself, maybe not others, but my thinking is that we got the win, which is what matters first and foremost when it comes down to consideration for the tourney. If you don’t stack enough wins or maybe you have a ton of high quality wins, you don’t even get considered. The wins are what gets you into the discussion in that room to begin with, then a more detailed breakdown of team resumes gets stacked and compared with others. For me personally, I was happy with a win since it gets us closer to the 20 win mark I hope we hit. Did I love everything I saw, flaws and all? No, but I now realize I am not going to like everything I see with this team game in game out. Will their flaws cost them an NCAA bid? They might, but I am trying to enjoy the ride and find out.
If I looked at it rationally, not as an RU fan, I would predict they don’t make it this year based upon what I have seen thus far. But, I hope to be surprised and that’s the beauty of sports of not knowing what will happen. Last year’s team I gave up all hope very early, they were just flat out bad. This year’s group I have a lot of hope and I don’t think it’s a crazy notion to say they can make the tourney like it was last year.
No change - still at 83.
Princeton moved from 124 to 122.
There will likely by minimal movement until Sunday's list comes out. Princeton is going to have to go on a nice run to finish the season for this to be a Q2 game (neutral court, opponent between 51-100) come selection time.
Princeton moved from 124 to 122.
There will likely by minimal movement until Sunday's list comes out. Princeton is going to have to go on a nice run to finish the season for this to be a Q2 game (neutral court, opponent between 51-100) come selection time.
yeah dont see it happen and Notre Dame continues to cling at 100 and I would say its very likely they will slip to Q3 by years end
I was suggesting that the lack ofB1G team in top five or top ten is advantageous since we have better odds of gaining Q1s against teams in the 11-30ranking range. no?
Well, we have done it before so it does give fans hope that we are still alive.
There are plenty of fans willing to ignore the red flags, hoping for a positive outcome. At least that data point is based in reality.
Personally, I only see us turning it around if Pike gets the offense right. I think we're sunk cause I think he's focused on the defense. The formula that worked last time ain't working this year. Happy to eat crow if we make the tourney.
currently only 3 of our 12 remaining Q1 games are at home..UCLA, Michigan, Illinois. Purdue is currently not a Q1 home game. Have to hold serve and win at least 2 of those Q1 home games while all the Q2 home games
With nineteen games remaining in the regular season Rutgers will need to win thirteen games to reach 20 wins.It will be a difficult task requiring multiple wins on the road and having very few losses at the RAC.Of the last ten games the following five are on the road;Maryland,Oregon,Washington,Michigan and Purdue.Bottom line there are very few road games where Rutgers will be favored unless there is a major improvement in team performance.
Almost all BigTen teams play at least one more key out of conference game against a top 75 NET team in the next two weeks. These games will determine how many middle of the pack BIGTEN teams will have a chance at the big dance come March. Illinois lost a great chance to help the BIGTEN aggregate NET by losing that recent close game to Tennessee.
NET moves up to 82
Maryland's thrashing of St Francis vaulted them up to 9 from 15. Terps are now the Big 10's highest rated school and only one in the top 10. Non conference sos of 297 but blowing the weak sisters out. Kevin knows how to do it. Best win is wobbly Ohio State by alot at home. Just 2 games away from home, Nova at Pru and conference game at Purdue. Close loss to Marquette and Purdue. The NET loves them yet their profile is closer to a 9-10 seed. Alot to prove going forward with just Q3 game vs Cuse and awful Maryland Eastern Shore left. If you only have the NET you have nothing.
Maryland's thrashing of St Francis vaulted them up to 9 from 15. Terps are now the Big 10's highest rated school and only one in the top 10. Non conference sos of 297 but blowing the weak sisters out. Kevin knows how to do it. Best win is wobbly Ohio State by alot at home. Just 2 games away from home, Nova at Pru and conference game at Purdue. Close loss to Marquette and Purdue. The NET loves them yet their profile is closer to a 9-10 seed. Alot to prove going forward with just Q3 game vs Cuse and awful Maryland Eastern Shore left. If you only have the NET you have nothing.
This.
12-8 in the Big Ten without losing to Princeton or Columbia results in a lock NCAA bid, IMO: 20-11 (12-8), a very solid Q1/Q2 number of wins.
19-12 (11-9) might also do it ... but RU would be a bubble team, sweating it on Selection Sunday - though a win or two in the Big Ten tourney would help.
18-13 (10-10) is probably short of the NCAA - unless RU has a run in the Big Ten tourney - might need at least 2 wins, maybe even 3 wins ... but 3 Big Ten tourney wins along with 18-13 (10-10) regular season should probably do it. Tough to win 3, but several teams do so every year, eh, as unless you are a Top 4 seed, you need 3 wins to get to the final. Last year I believe Penn State played its way into the NCAA with 3 wins, correct?
I think the last few years the selection committee already has the field set before conference tourney play and those games are not weighted much anymore. I think 2 years ago Penn State made a late season push and I think got a huge win over Maryland that probably was the key. I know that when the season ended it was close between RU and PSU but RU was tanking without Mag and PSU was stacking Q1/2 wins. I think they were right on the cut line going into the big 10 tourney and reached the finals but still wound up only an 10 seed. They were 7-7 in Q1 games heading into selection sunday.
I think you are right that 12-8 is the safe spot, 11-9 right on the bubble and 10-10 in trouble. There just isnt enough non conference stuff to give me confidence. On the flip side besides Nebraskas win at Creighton, the other Big 10 schools in RUs grouping tier do not have much to show for non conference either. IMO, the last couple weeks I feel the league isnt that good. Not as tough as I thought....some good solid teams in the middle and it will come down to holding serve at home and picking up a few on the road. Going to be a tight standings.
UCLA
Oregon
Michigan
Michigan State
Purdue
Illinois
Maryland
Rutgers
Northwestern
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Iowa
Indiana
Penn State
Ohio State
USC
Washington
Minnesota
UCLA
Oregon
Michigan
Michigan State
Purdue
Illinois
Maryland
Rutgers
Northwestern
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Iowa
Indiana
Penn State
Ohio State
USC
Washington
Minnesota
I see your tiers and there is certainly an argument for each tier. However , not sure UCLA is that good as they cannot shoot very well. Also not sold on Michigan State. It has been shown if you shut down their 3 point attempts or makes then they struggle. Penn State and Maryland will both make them struggle as already shown by Penn State’s eliminated Purdue’s 3’s and demolishing them and I see them doing the same to Michigan State. Same argument for Maryland playing the best defense of the Williard era.
So really I do not have a top tier not even Oregon or Michigan. I believe there are 10 teams that are all equal in no particular order. :
1) Oregon
2) Michigan
3 ) Illinois
4) Michigan State
5) Penn State
6) Maryland
7) UCLA
8 Purdue
9 )Rutgers
10) Wisconsin
Iowa and Northwestern would be next and will be tough games but either one playing a top 8-10 SEC team would be decent underdogs so they are not scary. Ohio State despite them beating us on our worst day and Indiana have shown to be paper tigers and hyped machines. Excuse the minute they stepped up in competition they got hammered.
So all the games will be tough and games against the top 10 tougher and throw in Iowa and Northwestern because our games are always tough , but not one game is not winnable. It is telling the BIG 10 has no top 10 teams signaling there are no great teams . The upgrade in competition coming in league will be something our young boys will embrace and flourish in and continue to improve game by game.
UCLA already has a win at Oregon and thats the best win anyone has in league play
I just think there are 5-6 schools that have shown a higher level OVERALL right now than schools like Rutgers. you cannot just downplay that Ohio State performance against a team that I think isnt a tourney team
I just think there are 5-6 schools that have shown a higher level OVERALL right now than schools like Rutgers. you cannot just downplay that Ohio State performance against a team that I think isnt a tourney team
North Carolina is now 6-5 & 0-4 vs ranked teams.....be curious to see how losing by 15 on their home court to Alabama is viewed differently than RU losing to Bama on a neutral court.
UNC plays UCLA this weekend at MSG (along with Ohio State vs Kentucky)....why mention UNC?? Because while people believe the resume is the resume, it has NEVER been just about the resume.....Michigan getting a bid a couple of years ago and not even in a play-in game AND drawing Colorado State was clear that brand or league matters.
If UNC beats UCLA, it would not be very different than RU beating the same UCLA team in a couple of weeks.
UNC has road trips to Duke, Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, Pittsburgh, NC State, Notre Dame and Wake Forest....are any of these games equal to playing at Oregon, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State ??
Someone with 18 wins and a thin resume of quality wins will get into the NCAAs, unless fans want to see Dayton vs Utah State....
UNC plays UCLA this weekend at MSG (along with Ohio State vs Kentucky)....why mention UNC?? Because while people believe the resume is the resume, it has NEVER been just about the resume.....Michigan getting a bid a couple of years ago and not even in a play-in game AND drawing Colorado State was clear that brand or league matters.
If UNC beats UCLA, it would not be very different than RU beating the same UCLA team in a couple of weeks.
UNC has road trips to Duke, Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, Pittsburgh, NC State, Notre Dame and Wake Forest....are any of these games equal to playing at Oregon, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State ??
Someone with 18 wins and a thin resume of quality wins will get into the NCAAs, unless fans want to see Dayton vs Utah State....
I pay no attention, keep winning and it takes care of it
I cannot explain the Ohio State game especially coming off Vegas but if we were to play them again or play them on a neutral court we would win as that was the worst defensive performance of the Pike era and it was still a game with 7 minutes left down 63-56. What Maryland did to them and Auburn did to them was embarrassing for Ohio State and the last one not so good for the conference.
Have you watched UCLA? They are on late but they pressure the ball like Penn State and Maryland but offensively no outstanding players that are as good as Dylan or ACE. Oregon was playing with fire and coming from behind late in the second half to win 5 games or so and they came up short against UCLA . UCLA didn’t blow them out or dominate them. Flip of the coin game.
In fact , other than Penn State ‘s domination of Purdue and Maryland ‘s domination of Ohio State not 1 Big 10 team has a dominating win over an out of conference opponent with a pulse.
you know what isnt good for the conference...losing to Kennesaw State, its one of the worst the conference has
rutgers needed a last second shot to beat a bad seton hall team, why would the osu outcome be that much different than the one just 2 weeks ago
Yeah Kennesaw was bad , first road game , ACE did not handle the homecoming well but no jitters from him since .
Ohio State at home is 6-1 and should be 7-0 as they blew a 12 point lead to a good Pitt team with less than 4 minutes left and lost on a buzzer beating 3. They play better at home , although they didn’t play great against us , but seem to be terrible on the road ( Maryland ) and on neutral ( Blown out by Auburn in Atlanta ). Likely to be beaten easily by Kentucky at MSG this Saturday. If we played them at home , we win easily , if we play them on a neutral floor we likely win and if we had a do over for that atrocious away game against them we likely would bring it to the buzzer as they play more steady at home . They are by no means in the top 10 of the Big 10 which makes me think we would beat them if we played again.
After the way Nova handled SHU, I thought for sure our NET would drop. Also compare the resume of Oklahoma to the resume of Illinois. Why would Illinois be so much higher? @bac2therac your thoughts on these two comments please.
SHU’s rating was already bad, losing moderately to Nova doesn’t move the needle at all.
NET doesn’t care about resumes. It’s basically all net efficiency margin. If you notice that Illinois is higher than Oklahoma in Kenpom then you know why they are higher in the NET as well.
Oklahoma has a very weird profile...4 wins over power conference schools on neutral courts but not positive that any of those schools even make the ncaa tournament. Im just assuming they were not very efficient in those games and in their Q4 wins. Illinois tough opponents for sure
yup probably because Kennesaw lost by 20 at Santa Clara and slip to 163 and probably dinged for Alabama's high wire act at North Dakota
NET holds at 88
RU SOS is 64, its Non Conference SOS is 144
WAB is 88
Notre Dame slips to 101 and our Quad 2 win is gone just like that
RU SOS is 64, its Non Conference SOS is 144
WAB is 88
Notre Dame slips to 101 and our Quad 2 win is gone just like that
Saw that ND slipped down, looks like we need to be ND fans this year as we need all the Q1/Q2 wins we can get this year. I don’t see them being top 100 this year though, maybe they surprise but seems unlikely, they are not very good. The PSU Q1 feels likely to be a Q2 also. Going to need to rack up wins in those 18 remaining Big 10 games.
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Yes id be shocked if Penn State is Quad 1 by seasons end and actually in a few weeks
BAC what will really move this needle up to realistic bubble range? It seems to only be slipping. Would it take 2 quad 1 wins in 2025? 3? More?
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