TrueSkill Rankings

fluoxetine · Oct 23, 2022

As I like to tinker with computer rating systems, I have built something extremely similar to Microsoft TrueSkill ratings (the ranking system used for games like Halo etc.). Here are preseason ratings:

Win/Loss Only Version
Top 25

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Kansas	35.03
2	Gonzaga	34.23
3	Baylor	33.93
4	Villanova	33.00
5	Arizona	31.86
6	Houston	30.20
7	Duke	29.49
8	Purdue	29.37
9	Texas Tech	29.19
10	Providence	29.17
11	Tennessee	29.08
12	UCLA	28.41
13	Wisconsin	27.90
14	Auburn	27.54
15	Illinois	27.41
16	North Carolina	27.40
17	Arkansas	26.96
18	Kentucky	26.52
19	Iowa	26.50
20	Texas	25.95
21	Connecticut	25.93
22	Creighton	25.87
23	USC	25.75
24	Michigan St	25.22
25	Michigan	24.71

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Rating
1	8	Purdue	29.37
2	13	Wisconsin	27.90
3	15	Illinois	27.41
4	19	Iowa	26.50
5	24	Michigan St	25.22
6	25	Michigan	24.71
7	28	Ohio St	24.08
8	44	Indiana	21.16
9	54	Rutgers	19.79
10	68	Maryland	17.15
11	77	Penn St	16.40
12	88	Minnesota	14.95
13	94	Northwestern	14.06
14	149	Nebraska	7.57

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Rating
349	Columbia	-16.01
313	Sacred Heart	-7.53
252	MA Lowell	-1.23
101	Temple	13.05
241	Rider	-0.30
337	Central Conn	-11.46
35	Miami FL	22.85
27	Seton Hall	24.17
57	Wake Forest	19.51
297	Bucknell	-5.83
318	Coppin St	-8.47

MOV Version
Top 25

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Gonzaga	23.40
2	Houston	20.29
3	Arizona	20.05
4	Baylor	19.74
5	Kansas	19.10
6	Kentucky	17.77
7	Iowa	17.72
8	Tennessee	17.63
9	Villanova	17.56
10	Duke	17.40
11	Purdue	17.34
12	Texas Tech	17.32
13	UCLA	16.98
14	Auburn	16.05
15	Illinois	15.86
16	LSU	15.06
17	Connecticut	14.35
18	Texas	14.10
19	Arkansas	13.94
20	North Carolina	13.78
21	Michigan	13.75
22	Ohio St	13.27
23	Virginia Tech	13.08
24	Alabama	12.78
25	Loyola-Chicago	12.40

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Rating
1	7	Iowa	17.72
2	11	Purdue	17.34
3	15	Illinois	15.86
4	21	Michigan	13.75
5	22	Ohio St	13.27
6	28	Wisconsin	12.05
7	29	Michigan St	11.65
8	32	Indiana	11.27
9	66	Rutgers	8.40
10	69	Maryland	8.26
11	72	Penn St	8.07
12	74	Northwestern	7.59
13	92	Minnesota	5.46
14	134	Nebraska	1.65

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Rating
350	Columbia	-15.38
315	Sacred Heart	-10.93
239	MA Lowell	-5.26
118	Temple	2.66
257	Rider	-6.23
349	Central Conn	-15.24
60	Miami FL	8.83
36	Seton Hall	10.88
39	Wake Forest	10.21
328	Bucknell	-12.02
322	Coppin St	-11.56

kcg88 · Oct 23, 2022

Providence and Wisconsin obviously stand out as prior year conference champions that (imo) got lucky to do that and lost major pieces.

Scangg · Oct 23, 2022

Purdue 8th?

kcg88 · Oct 24, 2022

Scangg said:
Purdue 8th?

I love Purdue this season. It's gonna be Edey surrounded by shooters.

GoodOl'Rutgers · Oct 24, 2022

These are just random numbers used to justify OP's "intuition".

RUJMM78 · Oct 24, 2022

North Carolina ranked 16 isn't close to what they will be ranked when the season starts.They have star players at every position.

fluoxetine · Oct 24, 2022

GoodOl'Rutgers said:
These are just random numbers used to justify OP's "intuition".

I don’t think they’re particularly good but this is completely wrong.

fluoxetine · Nov 14, 2022

Through 11/13/2022

W/L Only Version
Top 25

Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	Gonzaga	2-0	36.39
2	Kansas	2-0	35.23
3	Baylor	2-0	34.21
4	Arizona	2-0	32.15
5	Houston	2-0	31.07
6	Villanova	1-1	30.30
7	Duke	2-0	29.99
8	Texas Tech	2-0	29.65
9	Wisconsin	2-0	29.58
10	Purdue	2-0	29.58
11	Providence	2-0	29.54
12	UCLA	2-0	29.08
13	North Carolina	2-0	28.84
14	Auburn	2-0	28.48
15	St Mary's CA	3-0	27.90
16	Arkansas	2-0	27.90
17	Illinois	2-0	27.81
18	Connecticut	2-0	26.99
19	Kentucky	2-0	26.96
20	Texas	2-0	26.82
21	Tennessee	1-1	26.81
22	Iowa	2-0	26.72
23	San Diego St	2-0	26.37
24	Creighton	2-0	26.11
25	Seton Hall	2-0	25.99

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	9	Wisconsin	2-0	29.58
2	10	Purdue	2-0	29.58
3	17	Illinois	2-0	27.81
4	22	Iowa	2-0	26.72
5	26	Michigan	2-0	25.65
6	27	Michigan St	1-1	24.99
7	30	Ohio St	2-0	24.23
8	43	Indiana	2-0	22.62
9	51	Rutgers	3-0	20.82
10	65	Penn St	2-0	19.06
11	67	Maryland	2-0	18.49
12	88	Minnesota	2-0	15.81
13	91	Northwestern	2-0	15.20
14	156	Nebraska	2-0	8.72

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
355	Columbia	0-3	-16.61
281	Sacred Heart	2-1	-2.39
246	MA Lowell	1-1	0.68
87	Temple	1-1	15.84
257	Rider	0-1	-0.27
347	Central Conn	0-2	-11.76
32	Miami FL	2-0	24.01
25	Seton Hall	2-0	25.99
50	Wake Forest	2-0	20.89
283	Bucknell	1-0	-2.50
304	Coppin St	1-2	-5.48

MOV Version
Top 25

Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	Houston	2-0	23.40
2	Gonzaga	2-0	20.29
3	Baylor	2-0	20.05
4	Arizona	2-0	19.74
5	Duke	2-0	19.10
6	Kentucky	2-0	17.77
7	Iowa	2-0	17.72
8	Kansas	2-0	17.63
9	UCLA	2-0	17.56
10	Illinois	2-0	17.40
11	Indiana	2-0	17.34
12	Texas Tech	2-0	17.32
13	Texas	2-0	16.98
14	Connecticut	2-0	16.05
15	St Mary's CA	2-0	15.86
16	Alabama	2-0	15.06
17	Purdue	2-0	14.35
18	Tennessee	1-1	14.10
19	Arkansas	2-0	13.94
20	Seton Hall	2-0	13.78
21	Villanova	1-1	13.75
22	Auburn	2-0	13.27
23	Ohio St	2-0	13.08
24	North Carolina	2-0	12.78
25	Memphis	1-0	12.40

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	7	Iowa	2-0	17.96
2	10	Illinois	2-0	16.85
3	11	Indiana	2-0	16.83
4	17	Purdue	2-0	15.37
5	23	Ohio St	2-0	13.61
6	26	Wisconsin	2-0	12.78
7	27	Michigan St	1-1	12.15
8	35	Michigan	2-0	11.08
9	38	Penn St	2-0	10.89
10	41	Rutgers	3-0	10.62
11	59	Maryland	2-0	8.60
12	68	Northwestern	2-0	7.56
13	126	Minnesota	2-0	2.25
14	148	Nebraska	2-0	0.17

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
362	Columbia	0-3	-18.28
332	Sacred Heart	2-1	-12.34
178	MA Lowell	1-1	-1.26
116	Temple	1-1	3.10
257	Rider	0-1	-3.45
351	Central Conn	0-2	-15.71
66	Miami FL	2-0	7.91
20	Seton Hall	2-0	14.50
57	Wake Forest	2-0	8.63
296	Bucknell	1-0	-8.91
317	Coppin St	1-2	-11.01

PSAL_Hoops · Nov 14, 2022

I know the model isn’t looking at non D1, but at this point, I’d question the basis for UMass Lowell slotting in at 246 (vs. Kenpom’s current rating of 145, for instance). They may end up in the mid 200s, but based purely on results to date, all they’ve done is beat the snot out of 2 terrible teams and lost a true road game to the team your ranking as 51 (by a respectable margin of 8).

kcg88 · Nov 14, 2022

Tennessee beat the crap out of one team and lost to Colorado and dropped 10 spots. Providence beat the crap out of one bad team and very nearly lost to Rider and dropped 1 spot. That's weird.

A semi-home 12 point loss to a top-75 team doesn't feel that much different from a true home 1 point win over a top-200 team in terms of team quality. Maybe Colorado's loss to Grambling is gumming up the works?

Greene Rice FIG · Nov 14, 2022

interesting that your model moves RU only up 3 spots. Bart has moved us from 56 to 41.

Your model doesn't seem to impressed by lopsided results against bad teams. Is there a scoring margin cap OR a non linear look at scoring margin?

PSAL_Hoops · Nov 14, 2022

Greene Rice FIG said:
interesting that your model moves RU only up 3 spots. Bart has moved us from 56 to 41.

Your model doesn't seem to impressed by lopsided results against bad teams. Is there a scoring margin cap OR a non linear look at scoring margin?

It seems like his model is punishing RU for only beating a team of deems solid Q4 at home by only 8. My point is that at this point, all we really know about UM Lowell besides the RU game is that they destroyed 2 bad teams. Not much yet to penalize them for.

Greene Rice FIG · Nov 14, 2022

Actually looking at it closely there doesn't appear to be any scoring margin.

fluoxetine · Nov 14, 2022

This model does not use scoring margin so will be behind on updating teams that win by a lot against bad teams.

fluoxetine · Nov 16, 2022

I've updated the posts to also show the model that predicts scoring margin instead of W/L. For the W/L model the ratings themselves have no meaning outside the context of the model, but the MOV one the ratings directly scale to points. So in theory the difference in ratings would be the point spread on a neutral court.

fluoxetine · Nov 21, 2022

11/20/2022 - Win/Loss Only

Top 25

Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	Kansas	4-0	37.72
2	Gonzaga	3-1	36.63
3	Baylor	4-1	34.68
4	Houston	5-0	33.42
5	Arizona	3-0	32.28
6	Purdue	3-0	31.33
7	Texas	3-0	30.52
8	Texas Tech	3-0	30.37
9	Michigan St	3-1	30.16
10	Iowa	3-0	30.12
11	North Carolina	4-0	30.08
12	Duke	3-1	29.86
13	Illinois	4-1	29.84
14	Virginia	4-0	29.81
15	Villanova	2-2	29.48
16	Wisconsin	3-0	29.45
17	St Mary's CA	5-0	29.38
18	Arkansas	3-0	29.16
19	Auburn	4-0	29.13
20	San Diego St	3-0	28.74
21	Connecticut	5-0	28.25
22	UCLA	3-2	27.99
23	Tennessee	2-1	27.19
24	Creighton	4-0	26.96
25	Providence	3-2	26.47

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	6	Purdue	3-0	31.33
2	9	Michigan St	3-1	30.16
3	10	Iowa	3-0	30.12
4	13	Illinois	4-1	29.84
5	16	Wisconsin	3-0	29.45
6	26	Indiana	4-0	26.20
7	30	Michigan	4-1	25.67
8	32	Maryland	5-0	25.25
9	39	Penn St	5-1	24.27
10	41	Ohio St	3-0	24.24
11	70	Rutgers	3-1	19.23
12	74	Northwestern	4-0	18.71
13	105	Minnesota	3-1	14.98
14	163	Nebraska	3-1	9.17

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
355	Columbia	1-4	-15.68
272	Sacred Heart	3-2	0.20
244	MA Lowell	2-1	2.64
86	Temple	2-2	17.11
300	Rider	0-3	-2.54
349	Central Conn	0-5	-12.38
29	Miami FL	4-1	25.89
31	Seton Hall	3-1	25.33
61	Wake Forest	4-1	20.70
297	Bucknell	1-2	-2.32
259	Coppin St	3-3	1.36

fluoxetine · Nov 21, 2022

Fully Predictive Model - 11/20/2022
Top 25

Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	Houston	5-0	38.55
2	Gonzaga	3-1	36.23
3	Indiana	4-0	35.02
4	Iowa	3-0	34.74
5	Baylor	4-1	34.65
6	Texas	3-0	34.15
7	Tennessee	2-1	32.70
8	Arizona	3-0	32.55
9	Saint Mary's	5-0	32.45
10	Duke	3-1	32.09
11	Illinois	4-1	31.95
12	UCLA	3-2	31.73
13	Kentucky	3-2	31.68
14	Virginia	4-0	31.46
15	Purdue	3-0	30.72
16	Alabama	4-0	30.66
17	Connecticut	5-0	30.58
18	Texas Tech	3-0	30.11
19	Kansas	4-0	30.11
20	Mississippi St.	4-0	29.65
21	Auburn	4-0	29.43
22	Memphis	2-1	29.41
23	North Carolina	4-0	29.35
24	San Diego St.	3-0	29.30
25	Seton Hall	3-1	29.28

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	3	Indiana	4-0	35.02
2	4	Iowa	3-0	34.74
3	11	Illinois	4-1	31.95
4	15	Purdue	3-0	30.72
5	26	Maryland	5-0	28.49
6	27	Michigan St.	3-1	28.42
7	31	Penn St.	5-1	27.61
8	38	Rutgers	3-1	26.40
9	44	Ohio St.	3-0	25.87
10	45	Wisconsin	3-0	25.66
11	48	Northwestern	4-0	25.38
12	57	Michigan	4-1	24.51
13	170	Nebraska	3-1	15.96
14	195	Minnesota	3-1	14.40

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
353	Columbia	1-4	0.90
293	Sacred Heart	3-2	8.28
162	MA Lowell	2-1	16.33
101	Temple	2-2	21.07
256	Rider	0-3	10.63
335	Central Conn	0-5	3.98
78	Miami FL	4-1	22.55
25	Seton Hall	3-1	29.28
102	Wake Forest	4-1	21.04
241	Bucknell	1-2	11.57
282	Coppin St	3-3	8.80

fluoxetine · Nov 28, 2022

Win / Loss Only - 11/27/2022
Top 25

Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	Kansas	6-1	38.69
2	Purdue	6-0	37.99
3	Arizona	6-0	37.52
4	Gonzaga	5-2	36.84
5	Baylor	5-1	34.73
6	Connecticut	8-0	34.06
7	Tennessee	5-1	33.92
8	Houston	6-0	33.89
9	Auburn	7-0	32.41
10	Creighton	6-1	32.21
11	Wisconsin	5-1	31.96
12	Duke	6-2	31.65
13	Arkansas	5-1	30.97
14	Michigan St	5-2	30.65
15	Alabama	6-1	30.63
16	Texas	5-0	30.60
17	Illinois	5-1	29.84
18	Virginia	5-0	29.73
19	Iowa	5-1	29.24
20	San Diego St	4-2	29.21
21	North Carolina	5-2	29.02
22	Texas Tech	4-2	28.81
23	UCLA	5-2	28.61
24	St Mary's CA	6-1	28.17
25	Miami FL	6-1	27.89

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	2	Purdue	6-0	37.99
2	11	Wisconsin	5-1	31.96
3	14	Michigan St	5-2	30.65
4	17	Illinois	5-1	29.84
5	19	Iowa	5-1	29.24
6	26	Ohio St	5-1	27.85
7	33	Indiana	6-0	26.27
8	36	Michigan	5-1	25.75
9	38	Maryland	6-0	25.47
10	43	Penn St	6-1	24.29
11	72	Northwestern	5-1	19.83
12	75	Rutgers	5-1	19.50
13	115	Minnesota	4-2	15.48
14	153	Nebraska	4-3	11.68

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
357	Columbia	1-6	-15.73
300	Sacred Heart	3-3	-1.56
212	MA Lowell	4-1	6.75
108	Temple	3-4	16.22
311	Rider	0-4	-2.78
352	Central Conn	0-7	-13.43
25	Miami FL	6-1	27.89
46	Seton Hall	4-3	24.16
64	Wake Forest	6-1	21.28
281	Bucknell	3-3	0.51
271	Coppin St	3-5	1.52

fluoxetine · Nov 28, 2022

Predictive - 11/27/2022
Top 25

Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	Houston	6-0	21.03
2	Tennessee	5-1	18.97
3	Indiana	6-0	18.90
4	Purdue	6-0	18.87
5	Gonzaga	5-2	18.63
6	Baylor	5-1	18.33
7	Connecticut	8-0	17.69
8	Texas	5-0	17.66
9	UCLA	5-2	17.56
10	Arizona	6-0	16.67
11	Illinois	5-1	16.31
12	Iowa	5-1	16.11
13	Kentucky	4-2	15.99
14	Virginia	5-0	15.51
15	Saint Mary's	6-1	15.05
16	Alabama	6-1	14.29
17	Texas Tech	4-2	13.90
18	Mississippi St.	6-0	13.89
19	Duke	6-2	13.85
20	Auburn	7-0	13.81
21	Memphis	4-2	13.74
22	North Carolina	5-2	13.39
23	Kansas	6-1	13.36
24	West Virginia	6-1	13.04
25	Oklahoma St.	5-2	13.00

Big Ten

Big Ten Rank	National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
1	3	Indiana	6-0	18.90
2	4	Purdue	6-0	18.87
3	11	Illinois	5-1	16.31
4	12	Iowa	5-1	16.11
5	28	Ohio St.	5-1	12.40
6	29	Rutgers	5-1	12.01
7	31	Maryland	6-0	11.89
8	34	Michigan St.	5-2	11.01
9	35	Northwestern	5-1	10.92
10	39	Penn St.	6-1	10.54
11	42	Wisconsin	5-1	10.20
12	63	Michigan	5-1	7.87
13	151	Nebraska	4-3	1.73
14	199	Minnesota	4-2	-1.53

Rutgers OOC Opponents

National Rank	Team	Record	Rating
344	Columbia	1-6	-12.81
302	Sacred Heart	3-3	-8.17
149	MA Lowell	4-1	1.78
112	Temple	3-4	4.39
269	Rider	0-4	-5.91
342	Central Conn	0-7	-12.41
80	Miami FL	6-1	6.92
41	Seton Hall	4-3	10.46
94	Wake Forest	6-1	5.84
239	Bucknell	3-3	-3.95
276	Coppin St	3-5	-6.30

Loyal_2RU · Nov 28, 2022

Interesting. MSU seems low given their results...

Greene Rice FIG · Nov 28, 2022

histogram of expected wins in the gauntlet?

BillyC80 · Nov 28, 2022

Coming in at #29, even with a neutral site loss seems to lend credence to our early season scheduling, at least metrics-wise so far.

The question now becomes, did those 6 games prepare us well enough to compete against tougher opponents?

In light of our injuries to two key starters, it was fortunate imo that we played an easy OOC slate to this point. Needed to get the newcomers up to speed.

fluoxetine · Nov 28, 2022

Greene Rice FIG said:
histogram of expected wins in the gauntlet?

The predictive model is still in development stage so I actually need to do some hacking to get this. The spreads are roughly:

Rutgers -1.8 at Miami, ~58%
Rutgers +3.6 vs Indiana, ~34%
Rutgers +3.7 at Ohio St, ~34%
Rutgers -4.8 vs Seton Hall, ~71%
Rutgers -9.4 vs Wake Forest, ~86%

Bearing in mind that the games are not fully independent in this model, the records:

0-5 2%
1-4 11%
2-3 26%
3-2 32%
4-1 22%
5-0 7%

Greene Rice FIG · Nov 28, 2022

Truskill is more bullish on RU compared to Bart

fluoxetine · Nov 28, 2022

Bart sees

Rutgers +2.8 at Miami, 38%
Rutgers +0.5 vs Indiana, 48%
Rutgers +4.5 at Ohio St, 31%
Rutgers -3.6 vs Seton Hall, 66%
Rutgers -6.4 vs Wake Forest, 75%

Which model is better?

Well, in some sense, mine:
Going back to 2014-15 (the first season Bart archived his predictions) this model has predicted MOV with an average error of 8.84 points vs... 8.85 points for Bart.

But, there is an important caveat:

Month	Total Games	My Avg Err	Bart Avg Err
Nov	8620	9.38	9.23
Dec	8180	9.04	9.01
Jan	11278	8.62	8.75
Feb	10613	8.61	8.65
Mar	4789	8.52	8.55
Apr	33	8.66	9.06

Bart is killing me in the early season with much better preseason projections.

fluoxetine · Nov 28, 2022

Greene Rice FIG said:
Truskill is more bullish on RU compared to Bart

My Model vs Bart/Kenpom (to be honest only the pure W/L one is trueskill, the other one is just something else of my own creation with not much relation to trueskill)

Team	My Rank	Bart Rank	Kenpom Rank
Rutgers	29	40	35
Miami	80	49	44
Indiana	3	10	11
Ohio St	28	29	19
Seton Hall	41	43	57
Wake Forest	94	70	76

I am more bullish on Rutgers but also a bit more bearish on Miami (especially) and Wake Forest.

PSAL_Hoops · Nov 29, 2022

fluoxetine said:
My Model vs Bart/Kenpom (to be honest only the pure W/L one is trueskill, the other one is just something else of my own creation with not much relation to trueskill)

Team My Rank Bart Rank Kenpom Rank
Rutgers
29
40
35
Miami
80
49
44
Indiana
3
10
11
Ohio St
28
29
19
Seton Hall
41
43
57
Wake Forest
94
70
76

I am more bullish on Rutgers but also a bit more bearish on Miami (especially) and Wake Forest.

Your non-predictive model is interesting to me. It seems like your trying to make the pure results RPI model useable early season (but there just isnt enough data available to do so). You adequately correct, for example, RPIs flaws in ranking undefeated Indiana 6-0 with road win at Xavier (current RPI 156???) but fall short in correcting other early anomalies.

Losses don’t seem to matter much to Truskill yet as long as they are to decent teams. MOV notwithstanding, Truskill thinks 1-3 vs Siena, Memphis, Oklahoma and Iowa is a better outcome than 0-1 vs Temple. It thinks 1-2 vs Portland, Alabama and Iowa State is not only a better outcome than 0-1 vs Temple but 50+ rank slots better.

fluoxetine · Dec 1, 2022

Not too much time, but midweek update for Big Ten only (this is predictive model)

1. #3 Indiana (7-0) - 19.17
2. #4 Purdue (7-0) - 18.71
3. #9 Illinois (6-1) - 17.06
4. #12 Iowa (6-1) - 16.32
5. #27 Maryland (7-0) - 12.47
6. #30 Ohio St. (5-2) - 12.10
7. #32 Rutgers (5-2) - 11.74
8. #39 Penn St. (6-2) - 10.34
9. #43 Michigan St. (5-3) - 9.88
10. #51 Wisconsin (5-2) - 9.41
11. #62 Northwestern (5-2) - 8.24
12. #63 Michigan (5-2) - 8.22
13. #132 Nebraska (5-3) - 2.73
14. #193 Minnesota (4-3) - (0.99)

Unionst · Dec 1, 2022

fluoxetine said:
Not too much time, but midweek update for Big Ten only (this is predictive model)

1. #3 Indiana (7-0) - 19.17
2. #4 Purdue (7-0) - 18.71
3. #9 Illinois (6-1) - 17.06
4. #12 Iowa (6-1) - 16.32
5. #27 Maryland (7-0) - 12.47
6. #30 Ohio St. (5-2) - 12.10
7. #32 Rutgers (5-2) - 11.74
8. #39 Penn St. (6-2) - 10.34
9. #43 Michigan St. (5-3) - 9.88
10. #51 Wisconsin (5-2) - 9.41
11. #62 Northwestern (5-2) - 8.24
12. #63 Michigan (5-2) - 8.22
13. #132 Nebraska (5-3) - 2.73
14. #193 Minnesota (4-3) - (0.99)

Eye test, RU seems high. What are the few key components that drive that?

fluoxetine · Dec 1, 2022

Unionst said:
Eye test, RU seems high. What are the few key components that drive that?

Roughly half is just margin of victory, the other half is a four factor model

bac2therac · Dec 1, 2022

How does sos factor in?

fluoxetine · Dec 1, 2022

bac2therac said:
How does sos factor in?

Everything is adjusted for opponent quality similar to how Bart/Kenpom does it for efficiency. I believe the main reason we are higher here is that Bart/Kenpom have MOV caps where this does not have any caps

fluoxetine · Dec 4, 2022

Predictive - Through 12/3

#1 Houston (8-0) - 22.41
#2 Tennessee (6-1) - 19.37
#3 Purdue (7-0) - 18.76
#4 Gonzaga (5-3) - 18.62
#5 Connecticut (9-0) - 18.10
#6 Indiana (7-1) - 17.93
#7 UCLA (6-2) - 17.65
#8 Texas (6-0) - 17.24
#9 Illinois (6-2) - 16.57
#10 Baylor (6-2) - 16.32
#11 Iowa (6-1) - 16.31
#12 Kentucky (5-2) - 15.81
#13 Arizona (6-1) - 15.56
#14 Kansas (8-1) - 15.17
#15 Saint Mary's (6-3) - 14.42
#16 Auburn (8-0) - 14.39
#17 Virginia (7-0) - 14.22
#18 Duke (8-2) - 14.14
#19 Alabama (7-1) - 14.06
#20 Texas Tech (5-2) - 13.78
#21 Memphis (6-2) - 13.22
#22 North Carolina (5-3) - 13.14
#23 Rutgers (6-2) - 13.10
#24 Mississippi St. (8-0) - 12.92
#25 Ohio St. (6-2) - 12.84

Big Ten

1. #3 Purdue (7-0) - 18.76
2. #6 Indiana (7-1) - 17.93
3. #9 Illinois (6-2) - 16.57
4. #11 Iowa (6-1) - 16.31
5. #23 Rutgers (6-2) - 13.10
6. #25 Ohio St. (6-2) - 12.84
7. #30 Maryland (8-0) - 12.74
8. #41 Penn St. (6-2) - 10.08
9. #42 Michigan St. (5-3) - 10.07
10. #44 Wisconsin (6-2) - 9.90
11. #62 Michigan (5-2) - 8.20
12. #64 Northwestern (5-2) - 8.15
13. #127 Nebraska (5-3) - 2.83
14. #194 Minnesota (4-3) - (1.04)

OOC

#346 Columbia (2-7) - (12.19)
#299 Sacred Heart (4-4) - (7.38)
#124 UMass Lowell (6-1) - 3.20
#101 Temple (5-4) - 5.24
#241 Rider (2-4) - (3.80)
#344 Central Connecticut (0-9) - (12.15)
#72 Miami FL (7-1) - 7.44
#53 Seton Hall (4-4) - 8.98
#87 Wake Forest (7-2) - 6.39
#211 Bucknell (5-3) - (2.37)
#291 Coppin St. (4-6) - (7.11)

fluoxetine · Dec 4, 2022

Compare to Bart/Kenpom (for Big Ten)

Me / Bart / Kenpom

Purdue - #3 / #6 / #6
Indiana - #6 / #13 / #11
Illinois - #9 / #16 / #19
Iowa - #11 / #26 / #22
Rutgers - #23 / #31 / #30
Ohio St. - #25 / #29 / #21
Maryland - #30 / #11 / #20
Penn St. - #41 / #47 / #35
Michigan St. - #42 / #43 / #34
Wisconsin - #44 / #40 / #44
Michigan - #62 / #68 / #48
Northwestern - #64 / #97 / #75
Nebraska - #127 / #94 / #95
Minnesota - #194 / #177 / #149

fluoxetine · Dec 5, 2022

12/04/2022 - WIN/LOSS ONLY

Top 25
#1 Kansas (8-1)
#2 Purdue (8-0)
#3 Houston (8-0)
#4 Baylor (6-2)
#5 Gonzaga (5-3)
#6 Connecticut (9-0)
#7 Arizona (7-1)
#8 Auburn (8-0)
#9 Tennessee (7-1)
#10 Texas (6-0)
#11 Duke (8-2)
#12 Virginia (7-0)
#13 Arkansas (7-1)
#14 Wisconsin (6-2)
#15 Iowa (6-1)
#16 UCLA (7-2)
#17 Alabama (7-1)
#18 Illinois (6-2)
#19 Miami FL (8-1)
#20 Texas Tech (5-2)
#21 Iowa St (7-1)
#22 San Diego St (5-2)
#23 Kentucky (6-2)
#24 Maryland (8-0)
#25 Ohio St (6-2)

Big Ten
1. #2 Purdue (8-0)
2. #14 Wisconsin (6-2)
3. #15 Iowa (6-1)
4. #18 Illinois (6-2)
5. #24 Maryland (8-0)
6. #25 Ohio St (6-2)
7. #28 Indiana (7-1)
8. #34 Michigan St (5-4)
9. #46 Michigan (5-3)
10. #52 Penn St (6-2)
11. #55 Rutgers (6-2)
12. #66 Northwestern (6-2)
13. #102 Nebraska (6-3)
14. #114 Minnesota (4-4)

OOC
#352 Columbia (2-7)
#307 Sacred Heart (4-4)
#174 MA Lowell (6-1)
#104 Temple (5-4)
#262 Rider (2-4)
#356 Central Conn (0-9)
#19 Miami FL (8-1)
#51 Seton Hall (4-4)
#48 Wake Forest (7-2)
#274 Bucknell (5-3)
#273 Coppin St (4-6)

fluoxetine · Dec 5, 2022

12/04/2022 - PREDICTIVE

Top 25
#1 Houston (8-0)
#2 Tennessee (7-1)
#3 Gonzaga (5-3)
#4 Purdue (8-0)
#5 Connecticut (9-0)
#6 Indiana (7-1)
#7 UCLA (7-2)
#8 Texas (6-0)
#9 Illinois (6-2)
#10 Iowa (6-1)
#11 Baylor (6-2)
#12 Kentucky (6-2)
#13 Kansas (8-1)
#14 Arizona (7-1)
#15 Saint Mary's (6-3)
#16 Auburn (8-0)
#17 Virginia (7-0)
#18 Duke (8-2)
#19 Alabama (7-1)
#20 Texas Tech (5-2)
#21 Memphis (6-2)
#22 Rutgers (6-2)
#23 Mississippi St. (8-0)
#24 West Virginia (6-2)
#25 Ohio St. (6-2)

Big Ten
1. #4 Purdue (8-0)
2. #6 Indiana (7-1)
3. #9 Illinois (6-2)
4. #10 Iowa (6-1)
5. #22 Rutgers (6-2)
6. #25 Ohio St. (6-2)
7. #27 Maryland (8-0)
8. #41 Penn St. (6-2)
9. #44 Wisconsin (6-2)
10. #50 Michigan St. (5-4)
11. #53 Northwestern (6-2)
12. #61 Michigan (5-3)
13. #111 Nebraska (6-3)
14. #185 Minnesota (4-4)

OOC
#346 Columbia (2-7)
#297 Sacred Heart (4-4)
#124 UMass Lowell (6-1)
#101 Temple (5-4)
#240 Rider (2-4)
#345 Central Connecticut (0-9)
#59 Miami FL (8-1)
#52 Seton Hall (4-4)
#87 Wake Forest (7-2)
#211 Bucknell (5-3)
#288 Coppin St. (4-6)

BillyC80 · Dec 5, 2022

fluoxetine said:
12/04/2022 - PREDICTIVE

Top 25
#1 Houston (8-0)
#2 Tennessee (7-1)
#3 Gonzaga (5-3)
#4 Purdue (8-0)
#5 Connecticut (9-0)
#6 Indiana (7-1)
#7 UCLA (7-2)
#8 Texas (6-0)
#9 Illinois (6-2)
#10 Iowa (6-1)
#11 Baylor (6-2)
#12 Kentucky (6-2)
#13 Kansas (8-1)
#14 Arizona (7-1)
#15 Saint Mary's (6-3)
#16 Auburn (8-0)
#17 Virginia (7-0)
#18 Duke (8-2)
#19 Alabama (7-1)
#20 Texas Tech (5-2)
#21 Memphis (6-2)
#22 Rutgers (6-2)
#23 Mississippi St. (8-0)
#24 West Virginia (6-2)
#25 Ohio St. (6-2)

Big Ten
1. #4 Purdue (8-0)
2. #6 Indiana (7-1)
3. #9 Illinois (6-2)
4. #10 Iowa (6-1)
5. #22 Rutgers (6-2)
6. #25 Ohio St. (6-2)
7. #27 Maryland (8-0)
8. #41 Penn St. (6-2)
9. #44 Wisconsin (6-2)
10. #50 Michigan St. (5-4)
11. #53 Northwestern (6-2)
12. #61 Michigan (5-3)
13. #111 Nebraska (6-3)
14. #185 Minnesota (4-4)

OOC
#346 Columbia (2-7)
#297 Sacred Heart (4-4)
#124 UMass Lowell (6-1)
#101 Temple (5-4)
#240 Rider (2-4)
#345 Central Connecticut (0-9)
#59 Miami FL (8-1)
#52 Seton Hall (4-4)
#87 Wake Forest (7-2)
#211 Bucknell (5-3)
#288 Coppin St. (4-6)

RU at OSU would appear to be a pickem on a neutral court. Is the spread out yet? My guess is we’ll be 3-point dogs due to their home court advantage.

fluoxetine · Dec 5, 2022

BillyC80 said:
RU at OSU would appear to be a pickem on a neutral court. Is the spread out yet? My guess is we’ll be 3-point dogs due to their home court advantage.

generally won’t come out until the night before. I think RU +3 is a good guess.

fluoxetine · Dec 8, 2022

BillyC80 said:
RU at OSU would appear to be a pickem on a neutral court. Is the spread out yet? My guess is we’ll be 3-point dogs due to their home court advantage.

Spread seems to be OSU -6. This is surprisingly high to me.

BillyC80 · Dec 8, 2022

fluoxetine said:
Spread seems to be OSU -6. This is surprisingly high to me.

Whoa, did not expect that, since we’re at full strength now.

TrueSkill Rankings

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Hall of Famer

Heisman Winner

Legend

Hall of Famer

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

All American

Heisman Winner

Hall of Famer

All American

Hall of Famer

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Hall of Famer

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Hall of Famer

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

All American

Heisman Winner

Senior

Heisman Winner

Legend

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Heisman Winner

Similar threads