Weather for RU @ NE: Dry and Hot (but not humid) and Breezy

[RU848789]

So the weather for Lincoln is a lock for bone dry conditions from now through Friday and and warm to very warm conditions for Weds-Fri with highs likely in the 80s vs. a typical spread of 72/46F for Lincoln on 10/5, and while the models show the warmth continuing, a couple show the chance of a few light showers (in the 0.1" or less range) materializing late on Saturday and given that we're 7+ days out, it's impossible to know if the risk of showers in such a dry pattern is real. Stay tuned.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=173&y=196&site=oax&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=173&map_y=196

 

[Knight Shift]

What took so long for this? 😉 Thank you! Looking forward to our trip. Leap frogging from Phoenix to Omaha on Friday.

 

[RU848789]

Pretty early to call this, but I'd say it's now a lock for warm/dry conditions for the Nebraska game. The last few model runs of the major global models have shown no measurable precip in Lincoln (and anywhere within a few hundred miles of Lincoln) through next Sunday (they're worried about fire danger) and the NWS forecast reflects that with sunny and dry conditions and well above normal temps in the mid-80s (models range from the upper 70s to 90F, so temps aren't set yet), but with comfortable humidity (dew points around 50F).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
624 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger in northeast NE today, and extreme fire
danger in northeast NE Monday when a fire weather watch will
be in effect.

- Well above average high temperatures today and Monday, nearly
normal Tuesday, and then above normal for the the remainder of
the week.

- Dry conditions are expected through the 7 day forecast.

DISCUSSION

And another dry frontal passage is expected Wednesday night.
Highs in northeast NE in the middle to upper 70s, and highs
along/south of I-80 still in the lower 80s. And then similar
conditions are forecast for friday. High temperatures Saturday
warm a little more back into the lower to middle 80s. And yet
another dry frontal boundary should bring temperatures back
into the lower 70s for Sunday.

 

[RU#1fan]

Let’s hope Greg and Staff don’t forget the misting Cooler Fans this time.

 

[RU848789]

No change at all in the forecast, which remains a lock for warm/hot and dry. High temps are now forecast to be around 90F, which is way above normal, although 90F isn't a lock yet, although it will at least be in the mid-80s; fortunately, it won't be muggy, though, with dewpoints around 50F. Winds are very difficult to forecast 4-5 days out, but the NWS forecast has 15-20 mph winds, with higher gusts for Saturday.

 

[RUGuitarMan]

That’s going to be brutal for the players, temps near 90 with the Plains sun beating down on that artificial turf field. Huge enclosed stadium. Hope they are very hydrated. Depth will be tested.

 

[RU#1fan]

Hope 2.0 remembers the Cooling fans this time. That Visitor’s sideline will be blazing in the sun.

 

[RU848789]

No change at all in the forecast, which remains a lock for warm/hot and dry. High temps are now forecast to be around 90F, which is way above normal, although 90F isn't a lock yet, although it will at least be in the mid-80s; fortunately, it won't be muggy, though, with dewpoints around 50F. Winds are very difficult to forecast 4-5 days out, but the NWS forecast has 15-20 mph winds, with higher gusts for Saturday.

The forecast for Saturday keeps getting hotter and windier by the day. The NWS now has a forecast high in the mid-90s (not every model shows that), which is close to Lincoln's 98F record for that date, still with low humidity, and has 15--20 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph, with the strong SW flow bringing the heat and winds. There is a small chance (~10%) of a shower or two, but as per below, the NWS is very skeptical of any rain - would at least be nice if there were some clouds though.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
547 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

.ANOTHER DRY WEEK...

As the high continues east, strong WAA advection on the return
flow brings an anomalously warm day on Saturday. From the
surface through H7, temperatures are forecast to be in at least
the 97th percentile compared to early October climatology
(NAEFS). Omaha`s forecast of 94F is one degree shy of the record
high of 95 set in 1963. Lincoln may get within two degrees of
10/5/1947`s record of 98F. That`s all dependent on when yet
another cold front muscles through the area tied to a rapidly
deepening H5 low riding west to east along the US/Canadian
border. A minority (about 10%) of ensemble members (GEFS and EC)
produce some precip along the front as it pushes through on
Saturday evening. Have maintained NBM`s 10% PoPs. The old
forecast adage is "when in drought, leave it out". I have a
hard time imagining any meaningful precipitation over the next
seven days. Drought degradation seems like a safe bet as does
additional fire weather headlines. Octobers over the past 15
years have produced about double the number of Red Flag Warnings
issued in Septembers over the same period.

 

[huskersalways]

Hope 2.0 remembers the Cooling fans this time. That Visitor’s sideline will be blazing in the sun.

It’s interesting that this is the first year NU has been on the west sideline in about 50yrs.
Tom Osborne moved NU to the east sideline back when all the games started at 1:00. His theory on it was that NU played more games where it could be cold than would be hot. Therefore NU was in the sun longer than the visitors.
With temps around 90 and RU being on east sideline they will be in direct sun till halftime. Then they should be shaded for most of the second half.
NU will be in the sun for part of the first quarter is my best guess.
Also with the angle of the fall sun on the field looking south will be looking into the sun that could affect catching balls on punts or deep throws.
Just an FYI.

Edit: RU fans sitting in sections 19, 20, and 21(which is visitor sections) will be shaded for almost the entire game and never have to look into the sun. Visitor sections 39-41 will be in the sun till late third quarter and state directly into the sun the entire time.
From ticket stuff I’ve seen I think RU returned quiet a few tickets and them would be in the 39-41 sections usually.

 

[mildone]

Mid-90s in October in Nebraska. Damn.

That's gonna be unpleasant for the players and fans alike. RU better bring this guy to the game:

 

[Knight Shift]

It’s interesting that this is the first year NU has been on the west sideline in about 50yrs.
Tom Osborne moved NU to the east sideline back when all the games started at 1:00. His theory on it was that NU played more games where it could be cold than would be hot. Therefore NU was in the sun longer than the visitors.
With temps around 90 and RU being on east sideline they will be in direct sun till halftime. Then they should be shaded for most of the second half.
NU will be in the sun for part of the first quarter is my best guess.
Also with the angle of the fall sun on the field looking south will be looking into the sun that could affect catching balls on punts or deep throws.
Just an FYI.

Edit: RU fans sitting in sections 19, 20, and 21(which is visitor sections) will be shaded for almost the entire game and never have to look into the sun. Visitor sections 39-41 will be in the sun till late third quarter and state directly into the sun the entire time.
From ticket stuff I’ve seen I think RU returned quiet a few tickets and them would be in the 39-41 sections usually.

Oh sweet. We bought in 19 because they were cheap, last row in the subsection and right on the end, so not squished between others. Was thinking of picking up Visitor sideline seats, but will keep our tickets in 19. Thought 19 was the Rutgers/Visitors section?

Currently in Sedona, AZ, and it is hotter than it has ever been here in early October- pushing 100 F, which is ridiculous.

 

[krup]

Let’s get that wind to a steady 25-30 to affect the passing game.

I like our chances in a battle where the running game and special teams are the determining factors.

 

[huskersalways]

Oh sweet. We bought in 19 because they were cheap, last row in the subsection and right on the end, so not squished between others. Was thinking of picking up Visitor sideline seats, but will keep our tickets in 19. Thought 19 was the Rutgers/Visitors section?

Currently in Sedona, AZ, and it is hotter than it has ever been here in early October- pushing 100 F, which is ridiculous.

Yes, most of 19 is visitor section.

Visitor sideline will put you in the sun same as team. It will shade a little before them but not a significant amount of time.

I love Sedona!

 

[huskersalways]

Let’s get that wind to a steady 25-30 to affect the passing game.

I like our chances in a battle where the running game and special teams are the determining factors.

Looks like low 20’s to start the game from the SSW and shifting to the NW and diminishing as the game goes on.
With the direction the wind will be blowing and shifting to it will likely only have any affect in first quarter and maybe up to halftime but the West stadium will keep it out of the bowl to affect play.

You don’t want a fall south with here. It’s always a very hot wind and just adds to the temp. NW is a much cooler wind.

 

[RU848789]

Looks like low 20’s to start the game from the SSW and shifting to the NW and diminishing as the game goes on.
With the direction the wind will be blowing and shifting to it will likely only have any affect in first quarter and maybe up to halftime but the West stadium will keep it out of the bowl to affect play.

You don’t want a fall south with here. It’s always a very hot wind and just adds to the temp. NW is a much cooler wind.

Predicting winds more than 1-2 days in advance with any precision is very difficult, as it requires some knowledge of the dynamics at multiple atmospheric levels relative to the predominant jet stream to determine how much of the winds 1000+ feet up "mix down" to the surface, plus that situation is very fluid over time, often leading to periods of gusts and much calmer conditions that are impossible to predict. Best to just say it'll likely be breezy with some gusts.

 

[knightfan7]

Predicting winds more than 1-2 days in advance with any precision is very difficult, as it requires some knowledge of the dynamics at multiple atmospheric levels relative to the predominant jet stream to determine how much of the winds 1000+ feet up "mix down" to the surface, plus that situation is very fluid over time, often leading to periods of gusts and much calmer conditions that are impossible to predict. Best to just say it'll likely be breezy with some gusts.

Wouldn't the dynamics of the individual stadium have as great an effect as the wind itself?

You need to go no further than the old stadium in the meadowlands. It created strong swirling conditions with one end affected more than the other depending on the direction.

 

[RU848789]

Wouldn't the dynamics of the individual stadium have as great an effect as the wind itself?

You need to go no further than the old stadium in the meadowlands. It created strong swirling conditions with one end affected more than the other depending on the direction.

Good point. Definitely a significant effect upon direction/swirling, but it won't change the dominant wind pattern, overall, which is already complex enough, lol. That's why players look at the flags and even then that isn't always reliable.

 

[RU#1fan]

Send Cooling Fans,
The truck should have left today.

 

[RU848789]

Could be beyond breezy if the scenario laid out below by the NWS in NE comes to fruition, especially the part I bolded. Have to keep an eye on this...

.SATURDAY...

Saturday`s forecast represents a "target of opportunity" to move
beyond guidance and rely on human expertise. A negatively titled
shortwave pushes through the upper Dakota leaving Nebraska
spending much of the day in the warm sector. Southwesterly winds
of 15-25mph with gusts of 30-40 mph are already checking boxes
of the Red Flag Warning criteria... and perhaps a high end fire
event at that. Have manipulated wind speeds and dewpoints well
apart from the NBM`s solution to reflect what`s likely to be a
deep mixing event. The GFS is already picking up on this
possibility with mixing to 500hPa and wind gusts of 60mph. Haven`t
pushed numbers up this high as of yet, but the toasty surface
temps and steep lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest
this will be near the upper end of guidance solutions. Have
not issued a RFW this morning to avoid confusion with any
headlines that may need to be issued later today, but the
likelihood of a RFW for Saturday is soaring. High temperatures
in the 80s and 90s will be just a few degrees shy of standing
records.

 

[Cornicator]

Could be beyond breezy if the scenario laid out below by the NWS in NE comes to fruition, especially the part I bolded. Have to keep an eye on this...

.SATURDAY...

Saturday`s forecast represents a "target of opportunity" to move
beyond guidance and rely on human expertise. A negatively titled
shortwave pushes through the upper Dakota leaving Nebraska
spending much of the day in the warm sector. Southwesterly winds
of 15-25mph with gusts of 30-40 mph are already checking boxes
of the Red Flag Warning criteria... and perhaps a high end fire
event at that. Have manipulated wind speeds and dewpoints well
apart from the NBM`s solution to reflect what`s likely to be a
deep mixing event. The GFS is already picking up on this
possibility with mixing to 500hPa and wind gusts of 60mph. Haven`t
pushed numbers up this high as of yet, but the toasty surface
temps and steep lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest
this will be near the upper end of guidance solutions. Have
not issued a RFW this morning to avoid confusion with any
headlines that may need to be issued later today, but the
likelihood of a RFW for Saturday is soaring. High temperatures
in the 80s and 90s will be just a few degrees shy of standing
records.

Good thing Nebraska can't kick a field goal in good conditions. Hell. won't even matter now.

 

[RU848789]

Official NWS forecast still calling for sunny skies with highs in the low/mid 90s (and low humidity, in the 20-30% range, so dewpoints will only be around 50F) and 20-25 mph winds with gusts up to 35 mph in Lincoln on Saturday (serious fire risk, so red flag warnings are up). And the new NWS discussion still mentions the possibility of even windier conditions.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...AX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

[beaced]

So the weather for Lincoln is a lock for bone dry conditions from now through Friday and and warm to very warm conditions for Weds-Fri with highs likely in the 80s vs. a typical spread of 72/46F for Lincoln on 10/5, and while the models show the warmth continuing, a couple show the chance of a few light showers (in the 0.1" or less range) materializing late on Saturday and given that we're 7+ days out, it's impossible to know if the risk of showers in such a dry pattern is real. Stay tuned.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=173&y=196&site=oax&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=173&map_y=196

If you are bemoaning the lack of humidity,I will be happy to send you a qt. Or two of our home grown wet air from down here in Florida.

 

[bac2therac]

Looking ahead to next weekend the general pattern looks promising with warming temps after taste of fall mid week. Might be case of sunshine with upper 40s to start 6am tailgates rising through the 60s to touch 70 through the game

Fingers crossed

 

[RU848789]

Looking ahead to next weekend the general pattern looks promising with warming temps after taste of fall mid week. Might be case of sunshine with upper 40s to start 6am tailgates rising through the 60s to touch 70 through the game

Fingers crossed

Yep, way too early for high confidence, but it's much higher confidence than usual 8+ days out, as no models are showing any precip late next week and none, really, through at least next Sunday. Could be a glorious fall day. Toes crossed, too.

 

[RU848789]

Could be beyond breezy if the scenario laid out below by the NWS in NE comes to fruition, especially the part I bolded. Have to keep an eye on this...

.SATURDAY...

Saturday`s forecast represents a "target of opportunity" to move
beyond guidance and rely on human expertise. A negatively titled
shortwave pushes through the upper Dakota leaving Nebraska
spending much of the day in the warm sector. Southwesterly winds
of 15-25mph with gusts of 30-40 mph are already checking boxes
of the Red Flag Warning criteria... and perhaps a high end fire
event at that. Have manipulated wind speeds and dewpoints well
apart from the NBM`s solution to reflect what`s likely to be a
deep mixing event. The GFS is already picking up on this
possibility with mixing to 500hPa and wind gusts of 60mph. Haven`t
pushed numbers up this high as of yet, but the toasty surface
temps and steep lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest
this will be near the upper end of guidance solutions. Have
not issued a RFW this morning to avoid confusion with any
headlines that may need to be issued later today, but the
likelihood of a RFW for Saturday is soaring. High temperatures
in the 80s and 90s will be just a few degrees shy of standing
records.

No real forecast change: hot, dry and breezy to windy with low humidity. Today's 12Z models show high temps in the 3-5 pm timeframe ranging from 90-100F with the NWS forecast showing a high in the mid-90s, although with a cold front coming through during the game, temps could drop 10-15F by the end of the game. The wind forecast is still very tricky, as the models all show sustained winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts in the 30-40 mph range during just about the whole afternoon (tailgates and game), although there's some chance the gusts decrease a bit by about 3-5 pm, as per the NWS hourly graphic for Lincoln. As mentioned several times, winds are really, really - yes, really - hard to forecast accurately even 24 hours out sometimes.

 

[RU848789]

One minor change is that the NWS in Omaha is no longer talking about wind gusts over 40 mph and potentially up to 50-60 mph, as they were a couple of days ago, as that threat appears to be diminished. In fact, their wind gust forecast peaks in the 11 am-2 pm timeframe with gusts up to 40 mph, with gusts decreasing to the ~30 mph range by 3 pm and beyond. That's still pretty windy, but not off the charts windy - assuming the forecast is correct. I can't even count the number of times a 12-24 hour wind forecast has been substantially off (moreso than temps or precip by some margin) - not because these folks aren't smart, but because that's how hard it is to predict winds accurately. Now, let's go kick some ass and come home 5-0!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Tomorrow, a strong but dry storm system will move across the
central and northern Great Plains, setting the stage for extreme
fire danger across our area. The details of this system and
implications on fire weather can be found in the "FIRE WEATHER"
section of the AFD at the bottom. But here, it will suffice to
say that strong winds gusting to 40 mph and relative humidities
as low as 10 percent will favor rapid growth of any wildfires
that are started tomorrow.

 

[Source]

Fans urged to prepare for hot temperatures during Nebraska vs Rutgers football game​

Fans urged to prepare for hot temperatures during Nebraska vs Rutgers football game

Lincoln could approach not only the record high, but the hottest October high temperature ever recorded on Saturday.

www.1011now.com

 

[RU848789]

One minor change is that the NWS in Omaha is no longer talking about wind gusts over 40 mph and potentially up to 50-60 mph, as they were a couple of days ago, as that threat appears to be diminished. In fact, their wind gust forecast peaks in the 11 am-2 pm timeframe with gusts up to 40 mph, with gusts decreasing to the ~30 mph range by 3 pm and beyond. That's still pretty windy, but not off the charts windy - assuming the forecast is correct. I can't even count the number of times a 12-24 hour wind forecast has been substantially off (moreso than temps or precip by some margin) - not because these folks aren't smart, but because that's how hard it is to predict winds accurately. Now, let's go kick some ass and come home 5-0!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Tomorrow, a strong but dry storm system will move across the
central and northern Great Plains, setting the stage for extreme
fire danger across our area. The details of this system and
implications on fire weather can be found in the "FIRE WEATHER"
section of the AFD at the bottom. But here, it will suffice to
say that strong winds gusting to 40 mph and relative humidities
as low as 10 percent will favor rapid growth of any wildfires
that are started tomorrow.

Still no mention of gusts greater than 40 mph, but the NWS did extend the gusts over 30 mph through 6 pm in their latest update, so it's gonna be windy and hot. The fire danger is off the charts, as an aside, with high temps, high winds and very low humidity.