Weather for RU @ VT: Seasonably Warm and Dry (slight chance of any showers)

[RU848789]

A week out and all of the models are showing the significant rain being over for the Blacksburg area by late Friday as a front comes through, but there still looks to be a low level risk of a light shower or two, as of now. Being this far out, much can change, still, but I'd say it at least looks promising. Highs are expected to be close to average (74/53F is typical for Blacksburg on 9/21) or maybe a few degrees cooler.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.42678836360574&lat=37.23531699325312

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1000 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

An upper level trough over the Mid Atlantic should keep conditions
unsettled into Thursday and Friday with daily chances of showers.
With the flow no longer being out of the northeast, there may be
enough instability in the afternoons to spark a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Temperatures should also moderate closer to normal
values for this time of year. An upper level ridge building stronger
to the north will finally push the upper level trough southward by
Saturday, so chances of showers may begin to decrease. Temperatures
could dip a little by Saturday as the flow moves back to the
northeast as another area of high pressure wedges against the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Looks like no rain in B'Burg from Thursday until Monday.

Who Needs NWS?

 

[RU848789]

Looks like no rain in B'Burg from Thursday until Monday.

Who Needs NWS?

Stick to party planning, lol. Almost every model shows some showers in the BB area on Thursday and Friday - not a lot, but 0.1-0.3" is possible on Thursday and maybe 0.1" on Friday - and there is still a low chance (10-20%) of a light shower or two on Saturday. If the front that comes through late in the week is strong enough, BB will have partly sunny skies with high temps around 70F and dry conditions all day Saturday, but can't book that yet (although it's close to a lock). NWS discussion is below.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for lower chances of showers.

2) Temperatures still remain near or slightly below normal.

The upper level low resembling the remnants from Tropical Cyclone
Eight will hover over the Mid Atlantic into Friday. Upper level
ridging to the north will keep blocking the low and eventually start
to shove it southward by the weekend. Rainfall chances should
continue to lessen compared to earlier in the week but may not
vanish completely. Meanwhile, another area of surface high pressure
could build across the New England states and start another cool
wedge against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures
will likely stay near or slightly below normal and might trend
further downward if the wedge strengthens in later model runs.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Stick to party planning, lol. Almost every model shows some showers in the BB area on Thursday and Friday - not a lot, but 0.1-0.3" is possible on Thursday and maybe 0.1" on Friday - and there is still a low chance (10-20%) of a light shower or two on Saturday.

Listen, I nailed it last game so for low I’ll stick with the generic report I linked above lol!

I assume you’ll be there? You should be able to make it from Metuchen in about three hours, correct?

 

[RU848789]

Listen, I nailed it last game so for low I’ll stick with the generic report I linked above lol!

I assume you’ll be there? You should be able to make it from Metuchen in about three hours, correct?

You said dry from Thursday through Monday, which is very unlikely. The actual game is likely to be dry, although this far out, there's still a low chance of a light shower or two.

I will not be there. In the middle of our 2 weeks in OCNJ and hosting a bunch of friends this weekend (with time set aside for the game of course, as one of the friends is also a big RU fan).

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Blacksburg weather looking FANTASTIC for the weekend (I'm NOT worried about a "14% chance" of a sprinkle on Saturday, LOL....sorry brotha!):

Let's GOOOO!

 

[RU848789]

Blacksburg weather looking FANTASTIC for the weekend (I'm NOT worried about a "14% chance" of a sprinkle on Saturday, LOL....sorry brotha!):

Let's GOOOO!

I know you're not and you know I wouldn't be, but c'mon, you know our fanbase well enough to know that a few showers totaling 0.05" of rain would keep some away and cause others to wail.

The models have definitely backed off on any rain on Saturday with only one of the 4 major models (the UK) showing measurable rain (about 0.05-0.10" during the day) on Saturday and the NWS noting it being more likely to remain completely dry and warm with sunshine and highs in the mid-70s. I'm just reluctant to say a dry forecast is a lock 4+ days out when there's still some model variability on that. But it's damn close to a lock.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for drier and milder weather on Saturday.

2) A cool wedge of high pressure may return for Sunday and Monday.

With an upper level ridge slowly moving eastward over the Ohio River
Valley on Saturday, drier and milder conditions should return.
Temperatures will rise towards normal values on Saturday with the
increased sunshine. The added heat and instability could spark an
isolated shower along the southern Blue Ridge during Saturday
afternoon. High pressure from eastern Canada should nose southward
by Sunday and could wedge against the eastern slopes of the Blue
Ridge. The resulting cool wedge of northeast flow may persist into
Monday across the Piedmont. There are some model disagreements
regarding a low pressure system crossing the northern Plains and
whether any of its moisture may reach the Appalachian Mountains by
late Monday.

 

[RU848789]

Given the NWS-Blacksburg office's increasing confidence in a dry warm Saturday (precip chances have dropped from 10-20% down to ~5%, which is essentially nil), I'd say let's lock it up for a warm and dry day with plenty of sunshine and high temps in the mid/upper 70s - while temps are now expected to be a bit above normal, humidity levels should be reasonably comfortable with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Let's go 1-0 this week.

https://www.weather.gov/rnk/

 

[AreYouNUTS]

No rain in Blacksburg, Friday, Saturday or Sunday. Leave your rain gear at home people!

 

[Knight Shift]

Given the NWS-Blacksburg office's increasing confidence in a dry warm Saturday (precip chances have dropped from 10-20% down to ~5%, which is essentially nil), I'd say let's lock it up for a warm and dry day with plenty of sunshine and high temps in the mid/upper 70s - while temps are now expected to be a bit above normal, humidity levels should be reasonably comfortable with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Let's go 1-0 this week.

https://www.weather.gov/rnk/

Cargo shorts weather.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Cargo shorts weather.

Oh hell yeah....maybe even gym shorts....def t-shirt!!

 

[RU848789]

Oh hell yeah....maybe even gym shorts....def t-shirt!!

Go ahead, NUTS - break out the NUTS-crushing thong - you know you want to do it!

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Go ahead, NUTS - break out the NUTS-crushing thong - you know you want to do it!

Just ordered one through Amazon (overnight) in SCARLET SEQUINS!!!

 

[DJ Spanky]

Definitely a warming trend, now they're saying a high of 81°.

 

[RU848789]

Maybe spoke too soon about it being dry, as a 20-30% chance of a few showers has been added back to the forecast for Saturday late afternoon/early evening (as shown by a couple of the models) - not a lot of rain (<0.05"), but maybe not rain-free, although rain-free is still more likely. Anyone following the forecasts for lots of rain for the NJ shore the past few days - which never materialized - knows that forecasts even 24-48 hours out can be wrong, unfortunately.

And the forecast keeps getting a bit warmer, with highs now forecast to be in the low 80s with dewpoints having crept up into the low 60s, which is a bit muggy, so it might even feel hot for those in direct sunlight from 12-5 pm or so.

 

[RU848789]

No real change in the forecast. Should largely be a nice, warm, dry day, except for the pesky risk of a brief shower or two between about 3 and 7 pm, which most models are showing for the general area. These showers will be scattered, though, so hopefully Blacksburg won't get one and even if they do it should be brief and light (<0.05"). And let's especially hope they don't get a brief thundershower, which is possible somewhere in the area during the afternoon, but it's much more likely a thundershower doesn't hit Blacksburg (impossible to predict where and when one might hit though),

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Well I can tell you this…it’s beyond beautiful out right now…wow!

 

[RU848789]

Well I can tell you this…it’s beyond beautiful out right now…wow!

It should be through most of the day, but some scattered showers and t-storms are possible for BB in the 5-7 pm timeframe. Let's hope they either don't materialize or miss BB, both of which are quite possible. Discussion below from the NWS in BB; note that the 460 corridor goes through BB.

Greatest energy
associated with the disturbance will remain outside the service
area and more across northern Virginia, but there will still be
the potential for a broken line of showers and storms to develop
across the southern Shenandoah Valley during mid afternoon,
advance across the Highway 460 corridor during early evening,
and reach the Southside area after sunset. The stronger storms
will have the potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts
and/or large hail, and the Storm Prediction Center has most of
central Virginia highlighted in a Margin Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms as a result. In addition, with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, believe that storms
will have the potential of producing heavy downpours, and will
have to keep an eye out for localized flooding where storms are
slow moving. Strong heating ahead of cold front will make for
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

It should be through most of the day, but some scattered showers and t-storms are possible for BB in the 5-7 pm timeframe. Let's hope they either don't materialize or miss BB, both of which are quite possible. Discussion below from the NWS in BB; note that the 460 corridor goes through BB.

Greatest energy
associated with the disturbance will remain outside the service
area and more across northern Virginia, but there will still be
the potential for a broken line of showers and storms to develop
across the southern Shenandoah Valley during mid afternoon,
advance across the Highway 460 corridor during early evening,
and reach the Southside area after sunset. The stronger storms
will have the potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts
and/or large hail, and the Storm Prediction Center has most of
central Virginia highlighted in a Margin Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms as a result. In addition, with precipitable water
values reaching the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, believe that storms
will have the potential of producing heavy downpours, and will
have to keep an eye out for localized flooding where storms are
slow moving. Strong heating ahead of cold front will make for
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.

Yes…we already read this….

 

[RU848789]

Yes…we already read this….

Not really and certainly not in this level of detail.

 

[bac2therac]

next weeks weather for Washington is starting to look more promising as the details start to flesh out on the midweek storm system and its passage

 

[AreYouNUTS]

ZERO RAIN PREDICTED HERE THROUGH THE GAME AND THEN SOME….geeesh, right again lol

 

[RU848789]

ZERO RAIN PREDICTED HERE THROUGH THE GAME AND THEN SOME….geeesh, right again lol

I hope there's no rain and the latest hi-res models (HRRR and RAP) are showing the showers staying east of Blacksburg, which would be great. Interestingly, the NWS is still showing a 20-30% chance of a brief shower between 4-7 pm, as is AccuWeather, but WUnderground shows the rest of the day being dry. Sometimes the forecasters get it wrong, but as I've been saying, it's always been more likely to be dry than wet, but a few showers couldn't be ruled out (and if they hit somewhere near BB, but not in BB, they'll still be "right").

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Yesterday’s weather was absolutely phenomenal….a little too hot in the upper deck sun for a while but not a drop of rain to be found….saw some lightning in the distance driving back to Floyd around 11/11:30 maybe?

 

[RU848789]

Yesterday’s weather was absolutely phenomenal….a little too hot in the upper deck sun for a while but not a drop of rain to be found….saw some lightning in the distance driving back to Floyd around 11/11:30 maybe?

Great to see showers/storms miss BB, especially for all you folks who traveled to the game, representing RU. Really wanted to go to this one, but the wife would've shot me for going in the midst of our 2-week OCNJ vacation with friends visiting, lol.

And for those curious, here's the radar composite of rainfall from 2 pm to 8 pm yesterday in VA. Fortunately the heavy showers stayed east of BB and a couple of decent showers just missed BB, so the threat was real, but unrealized.