6 or more regular season wins and big recruiting success with 2017 class. We return essentially the same team with more experience (except for LB, which is brutal). While we add another B1G West team next year, we drop Wisc and Neb, so IMO the schedule is the same or a little easier in terms of winnable games. The change in scheme is on Ash & Co. - they need to make it work with the roster they have - that's what good coaches do. The talent is still on this team. Now if you want to talk talent level next year, that gets scary....
The schedule is not the same or easier as last year.
Off the schedule (and pre-bowl massey composite): Wisconsin (25), Washington St (41), Nebraska (53), Kansas (119), Army (121), Norfolk State (FCS)
Added to schedule (and massey composite): Iowa (8), Washington (42), Minnesota (63), Illinois (71), New Mexico (89), Howard (FCS)
We replace Wisconsin with Iowa (looks like a step up, but might be even - we get Iowa at home, and they got pasted in their bowl).
We replace WSU with Washington (away next year vs. home this year, about even but maybe a step up)
We replace Nebraska with Minnesota (about even, Minnesota on the road and Nebraska at home)
We replace Kansas with Illinois (definite step up)
We replace Army with New Mexico (definite step up)
We replace Norfolk State with Howard (even)
So, the schedule is a bit of a step up - the FBS patsies (Army and Kansas) are gone, replaced by fair/decent teams (Illinois and New Mexico). If we had the 2016 schedule in 2015, we may have gone 2-10.
As for returning the same team:
Offensive losses: Carroo (WR), Lumpkin (OT), James (RB)
Defensive losses: Longa (LB), Gause (LB), Mera (DE), Lewis (LB)
The loss of Carroo is big (nearly 50% of our receiving ypg and over 50% of our receiving TDs), and we haven't really stocked a lot of depth at WR. We'll have just five WRs on the roster next year that have caught a pass: Grant, Patton, Agudosi, Matthews, Tsimis. At JMU, Mehringer went 9 deep with WRs. We have other WRs on the roster, but none have really been game tested - they'll definitely get their shot. The OLine will also need to learn a new scheme as we move away from a power run/pro style offense to more of a spread/multiple offense. And we don't know who'll be our signal caller, either.
On defense, having no returning LBs is a huge question mark - and the whole team will be adapting to a completely different style of defense and tackling. I wouldn't expect a leap forward in a single year - though I am expecting them to show improvement over the course of the year as they absorb Ash's expectations and philosophy.
I'm expecting next year to be a retooling/restructuring year, certainly in the earlier part of the season. And there's not much breathing room early, with @Washington, Iowa, @Ohio State, and Michigan as 4 of the first 6 games. A lot will depend on what type of recruiting we see over the next 15 months to see what 2017 will look like.