Win the next four or it’s over
- Thread starter Knight Owl
- Start date
In a sense, the difficulty of the rest of our schedule gives us the only chance to get into the tournament, as slim as that may be. I know I know.
Every win is going to be a big win given the competition and the number of road games we have; it’s unlikely that we get a high enough percentage of those as wins, which would have to be a very high percentage, indeed, in order to make the tournament. But here we are. There’s not much to show to suggest that we are going to go on such a run, but it’s the only chance we have. Its better than getting mediocre wins against lesser teams. We have to go out there as underdog and prove it, something we haven’t yet done.
Every win is going to be a big win given the competition and the number of road games we have; it’s unlikely that we get a high enough percentage of those as wins, which would have to be a very high percentage, indeed, in order to make the tournament. But here we are. There’s not much to show to suggest that we are going to go on such a run, but it’s the only chance we have. Its better than getting mediocre wins against lesser teams. We have to go out there as underdog and prove it, something we haven’t yet done.
And the sad part is this doesn’t even take into account the OOC 1-4 mark away from home which includes the losses to Kennesaw and Princeton.
Yup. It’s this simple. Picking up loss number 13 before the BIG tourney is At Large check mate for us. Despite what Bart says, loss number 12 will put us on life support. Real life analogy - terminal diagnosis attempting a clinical trial.
If we’re 19-12 somehow before the tournament we will have enough q1 wins to get in regardless
I believe every game left besides Washington and usc will be q1
Iowa maybe q2 as well
Either way even with those 3 “wins” we’d still pick up 5-6 definitive q1 wins and would be in the field at that point to get to the theoretical
19 wins
Yeah combined 2-7 road/neutral and while the UCLA may become a Quad 1 win by years end, the other Quad 1 win at Nebraska is losing its luster as the Cornhuskers are playing their way out of the NCAA tourney
Something to possibly consider
2024 B1G OOC 144-59
2025 B1G OOC 159-37
Also....
last year that wasn't a ton of separation between the Top 4 conferences. This year (AS OF NOW) there is huge separation between the Top 3 and everyone else. I don't know if that separation closes as the rest of the way we only have conference games and non conference games weight declines.
2024 B1G OOC 144-59
2025 B1G OOC 159-37
Also....
last year that wasn't a ton of separation between the Top 4 conferences. This year (AS OF NOW) there is huge separation between the Top 3 and everyone else. I don't know if that separation closes as the rest of the way we only have conference games and non conference games weight declines.
The best chance this team has is qualifying and winning the Big 10 tournament at this point. It’s a long shot but making it as an at large bid is highly unlikely.
Forget the quads. Beating NW, USC, Washington, Minny, and Iowa does nothing for us - not tournament teams. The key is not losing because of the loss count. Maryland isn’t likely to be a top half bracket team either and also won’t help that much. They haven’t really beaten anyone and taking a home loss to us would pull them down further (currently about a 9 seed).
So there are really 6 opportunities against teams that could truly help our resume. We would need to go at least 4-2 in these games minimum, on top of not losing more than 3 more times total. And oh yeah -probably would hurt us still if two of those wins were a sweep of Michigan. Not only would that send Michigan plummeting to the bottom of the bracket but the committee historically has taken more stock in beating more solid field teams rather than the same team multiple times.
If we beat 4 of those teams, plus the UCLA win we’d at least be in the conversation though very far from a lock.
19 wins to get on the bubble in list plus at least 1 BigTen Tourney win to fend off bid stealers seems like a reasonable requirement to be an over 75% chance lock to Dance.
That’s ridiculous. Can easily go 3-1. What if we go 2-2 and then 6-2 in last 8.
19 wins to get on the bubble in list plus at least 1 BigTen Tourney win to fend off bid stealers seems like a reasonable requirement to be an over 75% chance lock to Dance.
I still don’t think we would be even 50%. There are just so many teams not even on the radar right now that would need to tank down the stretch for us to jump them.
I’ll throw one example out. Take an A-10 team like Dayton. We have 3 more losses than them. Normally it would be okay for us to have the same number or an extra loss or two than an A-10 team but we’re stuck with the reality that Dayton beat UConn on a neutral floor and beat Marquette and NW. if they finish with 10 losses compared to our 12 they are going to be ahead of us. They should be. So we need teams like that to lose. The problem is, there are a lot of teams like this.
Sad that the season has become hey if I buy a MegaMillions ticket we still are in it 🙁
Three games on the road against ranked teams are later in the season so 6-2 is unrealistic. The future is now.
I dont understand the hope that a team 4-9 in q123 games is suddenly going 9-3 in q123 games the rest of the way
Based on what
Based on what
This… maybe they can get relatively hot and go 7-5 or 6-6. It’s almost impossible to go 9-3 with that schedule given their situation.
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