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Minor to Moderate Snow Tues Night (2/11)/Weds Morning, especially south of 80 (all snow)
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 135 Replies
NWS updated map is below and it increases snowfall just a tad for most vs. this morning, moving the 3" line further north to about Trenton to Sandy Hook and moving the 2" line north to about Frenchtown to Central Park and increased amounts decently for SEPA/SNJ and put warnings up for 4-6" for Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May counties, and advisories for 2-4" for Philly/SEPA and all of SNJ south of Mercer/Monmouth. Should be a nice dry, fluffy snow for a change for everyone and will accumulate immediately with temps below 32F everywhere; the Weds am rush hour could be difficult (and conditions will likely be slippery starting Tuesday evening).
No significant modeling or forecast change for wave 1, this evening through Thursday sunrise, as per the updated snowfall map below; the 1" and 2" lines were nudged northward maybe 5 miles each vs. yesterday, while the 4" and 6" lines were nudged a few miles south. No change in the advisories (2-5" for Mercer/Monmouth and south of there in NJ and for 2-4" for SE PA from Lower Bucks SE to DE) or warnings (4-7" for Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May). This will be all snow (and a dry, fluffy snow with likely somewhat high snow ratios of 1.2-1.3" snow per inch of liquid) for the event for everyone with temps <32F (and the snow falling at night) so every flake will accumulate on all untreated surfaces and slippery driving conditions will result through the Weds am rush hour even for areas that only get 1" or so.
This is a difficult forecast for northern areas especially for areas along/N of 78 as this area is the battleground between dry/cold air to the north and the moisture/snow from the storm well off the coast and is the area most prone to busting low or high - we're between the HRRR which shows very little snow north of 276/195 and the NAM/NAM3K which show a bit more snow than the NWS maps, with most recent 6Z and 0Z models showing snowfall amounts similar or maybe a bit less than the NWS maps. Will definitely be a radar-watching event there and even south of there to a line from Philly to Trenton to Sandy Hook (the 3" line), which is where the heavier snows start with 3" or more. The excerpt below from the NWS discussion is why they're on the slightly bullish side even for northern areas:
Plenty of large scale forcing will result in an expanding precipitation shield late Wednesday and especially during Wednesday night. A strengthening low-level jet will also enhance the lift for a time Wednesday night.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/22/
