Im leaning toward 3-6 across central jersey to cover the bases..4-8 north of 78..2-4(leaning lower) monmouth down to inland south jersey..2-4 philly..coating to 2 inches coast. As always there will be a lollipop that overpwrforms somewhere
We lose some pavement accumulations early with snizzle and low intensity but main show is 4-8 pm
How much banding to the north and then who is in the subsidence. Its a quick mover but we will have one inch an hour rates at some point.
That's not far from the NWS (maybe just a lower lower end of your ranges) or from my thinking, which is pretty well aligned with the NWS (wasn't for much of the past few days, when I thought they were too low early on, then too high for a bit, then too low yesterday and now maybe just right, lol), although I could see snows being a little less than the NWS is calling for and unlikely to be more, except in some narrow bands, which are impossible to predict.
One interesting piece of data is that the 32F wet bulb line is only about 15 miles NW of 95 (the wet bulb is the temp the air will reach once it becomes saturated at 100% RH, so if it's 37F but 67% humidity, for example, when the falling precip from above saturates the column, the temp at the surface will go down to 32F); our wet bulb temp now is 34F (37F/84% RH), so we need to advect some more cold air into our area to get temps down to 32F.
Decent radar returns for much of CNJ - assuming some in western CNJ are seeing precip (snow/rain/mix?); we're still saturating the column here with no precip reaching the ground.
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