Not from the HRRR, lol. HREF is quite high for all as is the Euro-AIFS (4-7" for most), while some models show 2-4/3-5", so a forecast of 4-6" for the 95 corridor and most of CNJ seems decent to me still (and 5-7" NW of 95 and 2-4" towards the coast). We'll see of course.
Biggest questions to me for 95 and SE of there are: i) how much front end rain/mix does an area get (and when do temps get cold enough to accumulate easily), ii) how much total precip do we get, and iii) where do the heaviest bands set up after about 3 pm, when the heavier precip is supposed to fall.
Those aren't really going to be answered by the models anymore as there's too much variability across them, so it's nowcasting time, i.e., watch the radars, the soundings/temps, and the sky of course...and time to enjoy it, for me, whether it's 3" or 7" (my low and high range for my house).
