Summary: Heads up that it looks like a possibly significant winter storm next Thursday. Could impact all of us, but also might be a minor to non-event - just too far out to forecast accurately yet.
Details: After Saturdays likely minor/moderate snow to heavy rain event, we have a threat for a winter storm centered around 2/20, about a week from now, which is no longer in fantasy land and the pattern for next week is ripe for cold/snow. The Euro, GFS, and CMC have all been showing winter storms of varying outcomes for the past few days, and today at 12Z the models continue to show a significant winter storm coming up the coast and possibly affecting our area or mostly missing it, but as would be expected 7-8 days out, the details are quite varied and like with any possible winter storm around here, the complexities and uncertainties are high.
The outcomes have been ranging from a complete miss for most with a little snow in SENJ to a "coastal scraper" system very similar to Tuesday's where most of us get a minor to moderate snowfall with SENJ getting a significant snowfall to a significant snowstorm for the entire megalopolis from DC to Boston; we haven't seen any inland snow to rain cutters yet, but that can't be ruled out this far in advance. So while there is potential for a significant winter storm, this could easily still be a miss or just a minor event for most of us (like Tuesday) - and so far, this winter, the storms that looked significant to even major 7-8 days out have generally ended up being minor hits for most of the area (or even misses) and more significant hits for fringe parts of our area (i.e., SENJ or well NW of 95).
This is merely a heads up that there is potential for a decent winter storm in a week, not a forecast for such, although we're already seeing a ramp up in wild speculation on social media for snowmageddon. As a met from our area on AmericanWx put it well: "There's a LOT of hype by the social media cowboy click weather enthusiasts for next week. Good lord! If all of their weeks out predictions came true I'd be sitting on 70 inches this season."
And FYI, the pattern for next week features cold air in place (so snow would be most likely), via confluence from the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV), plus, the -NAO block is fading, while a 50/50 low and slight SE ridging will hopefully guide the eventual coastal low up the coast (avoiding suppression); significant snowstorms are much more likely in this kind of pattern, historically, but nowhere near guaranteed. Lots of pattern/storm discussion in the AmericanWx thread below.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61522-february-2025/page/71/
