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OT: Minor Snowfall for Most (except moderate N of 80 towards 84 w/some icing) Sat (2/15) pm, Followed by Heavy Rain for Everyone
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 59 Replies
This looks to be a fairly minor snowfall Saturday afternoon/evening for everyone south of 80, as per the NWS snowfall map below, which is showing <1" south of 78 with 1-2" from 78 to 80. However it's showing 2-4" N of 80/NW of 287 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY and there's also the threat of a period of freezing rain when warm air aloft surges north. Any snow should change to rain from south to north Saturday evening with 1" or so of much needed rain for just about everyone in the region through Sunday morning as warm air surges into the area associated with a low taking aim at NJ or just N of us (that's always a warm track even if it starts off cold); temps should reach the 50s SE of 95 towards the coast on Sunday, but it may remain in the low 40s for areas N of 80 towards 84. Extended icing, though, is possible for areas towards and N of 84, i.e., Sussex, the Poconos and the mid-Hudson Valley before the changeover to rain. The first link below for the NWS snowfall map and the 2nd for the AmericanWx discussion.
It should be noted, however that there's a lot of disagreement among the models so far with many of the models showing a bit more front-end snow than the NWS map, i.e., 1-3" from 276/195 to 80 and 2-4" N of 80 (except the Euro, which is quite similar to the NWS forecast and has been doing quite well this winter - did great on Tuesday and on 2/8). Let's see what the 12Z models say before worrying about getting more snow than the NWS is showing. Also, FYI, I'm going to try to keep future weather posts shorter with just the key highlights and not all of the details and model analysis, as it just takes too much time, especially for these mixed precip events, which are so difficult to forecast and have so many possible outcomes for so many locations (we'll see how that works out lol). The pure snow events are way easier to discuss, like Tuesday's.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/31/
It should be noted, however that there's a lot of disagreement among the models so far with many of the models showing a bit more front-end snow than the NWS map, i.e., 1-3" from 276/195 to 80 and 2-4" N of 80 (except the Euro, which is quite similar to the NWS forecast and has been doing quite well this winter - did great on Tuesday and on 2/8). Let's see what the 12Z models say before worrying about getting more snow than the NWS is showing. Also, FYI, I'm going to try to keep future weather posts shorter with just the key highlights and not all of the details and model analysis, as it just takes too much time, especially for these mixed precip events, which are so difficult to forecast and have so many possible outcomes for so many locations (we'll see how that works out lol). The pure snow events are way easier to discuss, like Tuesday's.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/31/
