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OT: Minor Snowfall for Most (except moderate N of 80 towards 84 w/some icing) Sat (2/15) pm, Followed by Heavy Rain for Everyone
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 59 Replies
NWS updated their forecast snowfall map and nudged accumulations up a bit across the board vs. 4 pm yesterday, with the 1" line now being from about Philly to Belmar, the 2" line being from about New Hope to Perth Amboy and 2-4" from that line to just north of 80 and a bit more north of 80, where there is the risk of 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain before the changeover to rain early on Sunday up there.
Everyone in the region will change over to rain with most of our area that gets 1" or more of snow (south of 80) changing over by early/mid-evening - about 1-1.5" of much needed rain is expected through Sunday afternoon, as per the map below, which should wash away any snow from this storm, especially with temps making it into the 50s by Sunday at noon south of 276/195 and into the 40s north of there up to 84.
Note that travel conditions will likely be challenging N of 78 Sat afternoon/evening with temps in the 30-32F range, while travel conditions south of 78 likely won't be that bad with temps 32-34F, which should limit accumulations to colder surfaces except during periods of heavier snowfall. This is also why I'm not particularly bullish on the snow for this storm: the NWS forecasts 2.5" of snow for Metuchen, but I'll be surprised to make it to even 2".
https://www.weather.gov/phi
No noticeable changes in the NWS-Philly snowfall map, but the NWS-NYC cut back a bit on snowfall for NYC/LI and NENJ from Union to Bergen. Not really sure why they cut back a little bit as the models at 12Z and recently 18Z don't seem much different. I will say that my confidence continues to be low in the forecast of snow for my area of ~2" and I'm going to only predict 1.4" for my house tomorrow before the changeover.
Given the low likelihood of accumulation on paved surfaces south of 78 due to borderline temps (33-34F likely during the afternoon/early evening before rising further with the changeover to rain), to me this is still pretty much a non-event south of 78, except maybe west of Clinton where it'll be slightly cooler. Areas along/N of 78 and especially N of 80 to 84 (and NW of 287) in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY will have a more difficult time with snow on roads with temps below 32F (and some freezing rain, especially in far NWNJ/Poconos) until mid/late evening when the changeover to rain starts N of 78 and eventually N of 80 by early Sunday.
