I don't think the folks on the two weather boards I post on liked when I posted this morning that the Euro AIFS model (their AI model) was largely a miss out to sea 3 of the last 4 runs, with snow mostly confined to SENJ/DelMarVa. And that's exactly what just happened for the 12Z GFS run, which was a significant hit for far SENJ/DelMarVa, but missed for anyone along/NW of 95. Doesn't mean, at all, that the threat is dead, but it certainly reminds people that there can be huge changes 6 days out.
And right on cue, the 12Z CMC is still a major snowstorm for all wit 10-16" for all, using the Kuchera algrorithm for snow/liquid ratio, since every model has temps in the teens to low 20s for this event (which is very unusual for these parts), meaning one would expect a very light/fluffy snow. And the UK is also still a major snowstorm with 12-24" for all. Going to be a long 5-6 more days, lol.
Edit: and the Euro is another big hit with 12-24" area-wide. So just the GFS as a near miss and the Euro-AIFS as almost a complete miss, while the Euro/CMC/UK Op runs and the ensembles for all 3 and the GFS actually all show a significant to major storm being likely. Long way to go still. If we have most/all of the models in agreement after tonight (5 days out), will probably start a thread.
