That was only true for the Big Ten because they have the BTN.
It is not all about markets for the B12. They do not have a network.
2 Wildcard 4th Slot Big 12 Candidates
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That was only true for the Big Ten because they have the BTN.
It is not all about markets for the B12. They do not have a network.
Not really they just had one great QB but besides that, they haven't done much. They are a huge school but most students do not live on campus, it is just an oversized CC.
Most people in Florida only care about 3 schools and they are not leaving the SEC and ACC for the B12.
If the Big 12 had a conference network, I'm sure that Cincinnati or UCF / USF would have a huge advantage over Houston. But in terms of market size, Houston is #10, Orlando is #19, and Cincinnati is #34. Salt Lake City (BYU is in Provo, which is 40 miles away) is #33, but BYU has more of a national following.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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Byu has more of a national following...I keep hearing this, but i have yet to run into a single byu fan here in NY...or anywhere outside of Utah or Las Vegas when I lived there...the national appeal of byu is waaaaaaaaaay over stated...
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BYUs appeal is regionally vast! Simply and obviously it mirrors the Mormon demographics - which is strong in many western states. Don't see it as strong in the bible belt or northeast. So no - not national.
#11 Tampa/St. Pete 1,859,820 (USF)
#19 Orlando 1,489,710 (UCF)
I don't see the appeal of UCF and really expect USF to be a top 25 team this season, while UCF again wallows in the bottom of the AAC. UCF also won the mythical ESPN Bottom 10 Championship last season. (Glad we aren't on that list anymore)
USF also has a better overall athletics program:
Directors Cup Standings:
#65 USF
#140 UCF
If B12 expand Memphis is in. I have 0 doubt.
Why will B12 expand?
Increase revenue for existing members.
How?
Network context increases per team linearly, if they make button period, the other teams spkit the difference.
Why Memphis is a lock?
FedEx will sponsor their championship game for big $$ meaning Memphis can literally bring in more money then they will be payed ignoring their TV money.
What this will tell us...
Doing this without am increase GOR tells you the top guys plan on leaving when this contact ends and are soaking whatever cash they can for now and hope to exit in 7 years.
Why will B12 expand?
Increase revenue for existing members.
How?
Network context increases per team linearly, if they make button period, the other teams spkit the difference.
Why Memphis is a lock?
FedEx will sponsor their championship game for big $$ meaning Memphis can literally bring in more money then they will be payed ignoring their TV money.
What this will tell us...
Doing this without am increase GOR tells you the top guys plan on leaving when this contact ends and are soaking whatever cash they can for now and hope to exit in 7 years.
The problem with USF and UCF is a similar one that Buffalo and Stony Brook have (but worse) - despite having a HUGE alumni base, the states they reside in have bigger names with the majority of actual college sports fans (UF, FSU & Miami in Florida / Syracuse, Army & Rutgers in NY Upstate/NYC Metro Area) so effectively even when their football program is top 10 that season, they are still the #4 or #5 options. On top of that USF/UCF are very young universities with very young programs while UF, FSU and Miami have legendary status in college football lore, so that especially hurts them publicly.
For the B12, it makes it very difficult for them to consider expanding into unless they already had a network and were purely looking for subscriptions. Perhaps if they had been consistently good in football for a decade, or had a football program that was around for decades like Memphis and Houston, they'd have a better shot. Someday they might end up in the B12, perhaps when UT and OU eventually leave.
For the B12, it makes it very difficult for them to consider expanding into unless they already had a network and were purely looking for subscriptions. Perhaps if they had been consistently good in football for a decade, or had a football program that was around for decades like Memphis and Houston, they'd have a better shot. Someday they might end up in the B12, perhaps when UT and OU eventually leave.
From a fan's point of view, would you rather do road trips to Las Vegas (UNLV) and Orlando (UCF) each year or visit Provo and Cinncy each year. From a market and marketing perspective these schools would make sense.
Sure Vegas and Orlando are more fun to visit, but the problem is that no one cares about those schools. Many B1G fans already were pretty pissed that the conference added Rutgers due to the history of futility, despite being one of the oldest and best schools out there. The B12 fans are even more rabid than the B1G fans when it comes to football, they would never be happy with adding UNLV and UCF. At least Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati and BYU all have had long histories in college football and have had quite a few elite seasons.
Maybe not the northern schools, but half of the conference is in Texas. Texas football fans are some of the most rabid anywhere.
Regardless of who is more rabid, my point stands.
BYU's "national" following definitely follows religious lines, and is pretty much concentrated in the Western States... making it more of a regional following, as RUBigFrank said. Reported LDS membership at the end of last year was 6.5M, with 2M of those living in the state of Utah (and another 0.5M living inside the existing B12 footprint).
There are roughly 2.0M Mormons in Utah (31%), 4.6M overall in Western states (71%) and 5.3M overall west of the Mississippi (82%).
There are only 165K in NJ/NY/PA out of ~41.6M people (approximately 0.4% of the total population, or 1 in 252 people), so it's not really surprising not to find a single BYU fan around here.
The travel for other sports clearly an issue and that's why BYU being considered for just football.
Lots of really great points in this thread. I learned some good stuff about byu, ucf, and even usf. Thanks all contributors!
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
That I was not fully aware of...which makes the b12 an even more unbalanced cluster...
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The potential I was talking about is not the product they are putting on the field now, but that they are that large university located in an area where serious high school and college football is played....
Much like RU, a league would have to hope a program can grow with a change for the better.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
If I had to bet $$ I'd say if said b12 expansion includes UH, it is a two-fold Texas-driven decision. 1) Texas gets little bs from Houston as Texas builds a satellite campus in Hou and 2) when Texas leaves (and they will) they can turn to the politicos and say, look, itt tech, gang bang U, the froggies and cougar high are all safe in a "P5" conference! Aren't we great for taking care of them!? Of course the conference will be even crappier than it is now with 1/2 of the SWC and the AAC...swell!!
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
This how awkward it is going to be for current big 12 teams from Texas whose mascot is not a castrated steer when the big dumpster fire inevitably collapses:
Tcu/uh/bu/tech;
PAC: LOL[jumpingsmile]
SEC: LMAO[laughing]
B1G: ROTFLMAO[roll]
Two schools trying desperately to GTFO and 8 others desperate...the 2-4 possible new ones have no idea they're about to step into the titanic...unbeknownst to them, there's an iceberg in the distance...
Tcu/uh/bu/tech;
PAC: LOL[jumpingsmile]
SEC: LMAO[laughing]
B1G: ROTFLMAO[roll]
Two schools trying desperately to GTFO and 8 others desperate...the 2-4 possible new ones have no idea they're about to step into the titanic...unbeknownst to them, there's an iceberg in the distance...
Nothing like Rutgers. We don't have three monster programs in NJ.
We can easily take over NJ and the Tri-State but just not stinking up the joint.
UCF can never take over Florida... never. No matter what they do.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
According to a REALLY LONG landthieves thread (OU site) the leading contenders are:
@flugempire 30m30 minutes ago
Only OU Contacts believe it's heading toward UC/UCONN/BYU/UH
This conference would extend from Storrs CT to Provo Utah...LOL (if true, of course)
@flugempire 30m30 minutes ago
Only OU Contacts believe it's heading toward UC/UCONN/BYU/UH
This conference would extend from Storrs CT to Provo Utah...LOL (if true, of course)
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OU was the school leading the push to add Rutgers last time. They really want to add a school from the Northeast. Maybe they might get their wish this time? Crazier thing have happen but Uconn doesn't fit the B12 at all. Hell even travel to UWV is rough forget the rest of the schools. They don't add anything for football besides an easy win. They will just give them more cred in basketball but that is about it.
I don't think it's a good practice to remove home games from the total. every school has games against marquee opponents to push attendance figures upward.
There was a recent article (Andy Staples and John Ourand) published in Street and Smiths Sports Business Journal (8/1/16) entitled "Big 12 TV Partners push back on expansion"
Basically the article is saying that Fox and ESPN are digging in their heels on the Big 12 expansion plans and the "pro-rata" price increase for non P-5 team additions.
The Big 12 money grab may be running into resistance from Fox and ESPN who acknowledge it is in their contract but may be willing to go to court over the clause.
If they have to pay, then they may not support the Big 12 in 2025 when Contract and GOR's expire.
Also discusses possibility of paying Big 12 more money per school to remain at 10 and not expand.
Surprised you guys were not bringing in these scenario's as part of your expansion discussions.
This expansion may not just be solely in the realm of the Big 12 members.
Have to wait and see how this plays out.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Basically the article is saying that Fox and ESPN are digging in their heels on the Big 12 expansion plans and the "pro-rata" price increase for non P-5 team additions.
The Big 12 money grab may be running into resistance from Fox and ESPN who acknowledge it is in their contract but may be willing to go to court over the clause.
If they have to pay, then they may not support the Big 12 in 2025 when Contract and GOR's expire.
Also discusses possibility of paying Big 12 more money per school to remain at 10 and not expand.
Surprised you guys were not bringing in these scenario's as part of your expansion discussions.
This expansion may not just be solely in the realm of the Big 12 members.
Have to wait and see how this plays out.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
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UCF actually has a legit campus and on campus stadium. The school also has a good academic profile. At Rutgers, we learned that you can recruit the third or fourth tier Florida players and they can become superstars. I wouldn't count them out.
Scarlet Jerry
Scarlet Jerry
Let's say BYU and Houston are definitely in and they decide to go to 14. I just can't see them taking UConn or Temple. Nothing against them, but it doesn't make sense from any perspective. I don't see them taking UCF or USF either. Those schools will just always be below Florida and FSU. I see Colorado State as a good choice. I think there's lots of potential there, they're building a new stadium on campus, and it makes sense geographically. The other school I see being added is Boise.
I don't see the Big 12 going past 2 additions (UCinn and BYU) because of the push back from Fox and ESPN on payment issues now and in the future.
Many on Oklahoma Board want the school out of the Big 12.
Many on West Virginia Board would like to exit to the SEC or ACC if Big 12 goes down.
Clue will be will Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas sign on for extension of GOR's if/when they take on 2-4 new member schools.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Many on Oklahoma Board want the school out of the Big 12.
Many on West Virginia Board would like to exit to the SEC or ACC if Big 12 goes down.
Clue will be will Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas sign on for extension of GOR's if/when they take on 2-4 new member schools.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Latest reports have BYU as everyone top choice in the B12.
For number 12, Texas wants Houston and Oklahoma wants Cincy.
Reporters have made jokes that it may end up with Houston and Cincy to keep the big 2 happy.
For number 12, Texas wants Houston and Oklahoma wants Cincy.
Reporters have made jokes that it may end up with Houston and Cincy to keep the big 2 happy.
Back to the original post, it is hard for me to believe that any Rutgers fan would possibly want another P5 program within an hour of our campus. What possible good to Rutgers could come from having Texas, Oklahoma and a few others have increased access to our recruiting market. Yes, Temple struggles attendance wise for non event games, but put Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and a couple others in the Linc and they will draw fans and dominate the Philly media market along with Penn State. They have over 300k living alumni, imagine if they actually started caring about football. Again, nothing good can come of this for Rutgers, let them wallow in the AAC, where they are no threat to us at any level, or better yet, hopefully after Rhule leaves the program is killed altogether.
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I would agree with you if they were conference games. But let's take last year's Temple schedule to understand why deducting that attendance demonstrates the actual fan strength / loyalty. 264,953 fans went to watch six Temple home games last season. But 52.3% of those fans went to watch Penn State and / or Notre Dame. This indicates that the opponent was the primary attraction. They do not have another home game against either team scheduled at this point. These were two one-time events that occurred in the same season and represented a 119% increase in attendance over a typical game.
This year Temple has seven home games (Army, Stony Brook, Charlotte, SMU, USF, Cincinnati, and ECU) instead of six. Do you think they will exceed last year's attendance while playing one more home game? I don't think they'll exceed 250,000 in attendance. The non PSU / ND attendance numbers indicate they'll probably draw about 220K -- 225K. ECU has a good fan base and could send a good amount of fans to Philadelphia. This attendance would not be deducted because it is a conference game and it is reasonable to expect similar draws in the future.
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