I would be the leader of the "we're getting lucky" brigade. But certainly no one would be talking about firing PIkiell.
We trailed Lehigh, Merrimack, and NJIT at halftime in our first three games. Those were giant red flags early in the season.
3 possessions from 14-5 AND 3 possessions from 8-11....3 possessions away from great season and 3 from disaster
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We trailed Lehigh, Merrimack, and NJIT at halftime in our first three games. Those were giant red flags early in the season.
Why do people keep saying stuff like this? He posted, in the same post, about how we could be 8-11.
Why post about what may have been ? Fact is we lacked intensity in 4-5 games . All the nonsense about we did this or we did that is not getting this team back to the NCAA tourney. We all get it but it’s hypothetical . Our record would be better had we beaten Lafayette, DePaul , Penn State
Yes you did say that . But really who cares? If we don’t make the tourney ( and it’s highly unlikely) Rutgers can’t live off the “ had we done this we could have won or lost .” I don’t personally think most here are unaware of that statistical mumbo jumbo. We are 11-8 ….be happy we aren’t 8-11.
Basically it is to show how biased fans analysis of the team and coaches are based on a win or loss.
Splitting the games that came down to one possession kind of makes sense. Those are 50/50 propositions, more or less. The challenge is for us to get more consistent because Lehigh and Lafayette should not be last-possession games anywhere, let alone at home, unless it is a night where someone on the other team is just ON FIRE. Even then, maybe not - although that is why we lost to Minnesota.
I have no idea what to expect from us at Nebraska. None.
I have no idea what to expect from us at Nebraska. None.
Rutgers has more bad losses than good wins. Good teams beat bad teams and Rutgers has not shown it can consistently do that.
The last 11 games of the season we have to attack the schedule in a path to the NCAAs in 3 segments, attack and win next 2, @ Nebraska and @ Northwestern(2-0), somehow someway split the next six games, no off night blowouts, vs MSU, vs OSU, @ Wisc, vs Illinois, @ Purdue, @ Michigan, (3-3), 2-4 might be acceptable with no blowouts, attack and win the final 3, vs Wisc. @ Indiana, vs PSU(3-0), puts us at 19-11 or even 18-12 and a must win 1 or 2 B1G tourny game, and very much on the bubble. Will it happen or work out that way, most likely no, but that's the way I'd spell it out to the players to get full buy in.
In the B1G, last 4 years 33-36 and win streaks
2018-19 3Ws, 2Ws
19-20 3Ws, 2Ws, 2Ws
20-21 2Ws, 4Ws 2Ws
21-22 3Ws, 2Ws
We are capable of a couple more, ebb and flow of the season win streaks
Ex. W @ Neb(19-20), W @ NW(20-21), W MSU(20-21), L OSU, never like this matchup, L @ Wisc, W Ill(19-20, 20-21), W/L? @ Purdue(19-20), L @ Mich, W Wisc(19-20), W @ Ind(20-21), W PSU(19-20), is a feasible scenario, still split PSU, split Wisc, split Ill, split Mich since we have a win in the bank, which we are capable of. Pikiell, for whatever reason, does have Painter's number but could go either way. We won there 2019, won without Ron 20-21. Indiana is Indiana, 6 of 7, 2-1 @ Indiana, 4-0 home, 1-0 Neutral. All things Pikiell is very capable of, game by game.
In the B1G, last 4 years 33-36 and win streaks
2018-19 3Ws, 2Ws
19-20 3Ws, 2Ws, 2Ws
20-21 2Ws, 4Ws 2Ws
21-22 3Ws, 2Ws
We are capable of a couple more, ebb and flow of the season win streaks
Ex. W @ Neb(19-20), W @ NW(20-21), W MSU(20-21), L OSU, never like this matchup, L @ Wisc, W Ill(19-20, 20-21), W/L? @ Purdue(19-20), L @ Mich, W Wisc(19-20), W @ Ind(20-21), W PSU(19-20), is a feasible scenario, still split PSU, split Wisc, split Ill, split Mich since we have a win in the bank, which we are capable of. Pikiell, for whatever reason, does have Painter's number but could go either way. We won there 2019, won without Ron 20-21. Indiana is Indiana, 6 of 7, 2-1 @ Indiana, 4-0 home, 1-0 Neutral. All things Pikiell is very capable of, game by game.
I am by no means not guilty. When we win I see a path with the current roster. When we lose it seems obvious to me you can’t win with 2 guards that can’t shoot.
I disagree with this premise.
First off, there will always be people who bitch - always. We could be undefeated, and people would bitch. It's a fact of life on sports forums.
Second, while the concept is an interesting thought experiment, it's a bit reductionist. We didn't lose to Lafayette because of one possession - we lost because we played terribly throughout the game, so badly that a home game against a 300+ ranked team came down to one possession. We didn't lose to UMass because of one possession - we lost because we collapsed late and allowed UMass to sneak back into it, so that a game we had in hand came down to a final shot. The Minnesota game wouldn't even have necessarily been won if Baker made that three.... they would have had another possession to win or go to overtime.
The inconsistency of this team would still exist if those three shots had broken our way. The same gripes would be there about individual player performances, or rotations, etc. Would there be another layer of narrative along the lines of "finding ways to win", sure... but this would still be functionally the same team with the same strengths and weaknesses. But I agree, no one would be calling for Pike to be fired.
People would instead be saying of our Top 40 NET ranking that we're not as strong as the models are showing us to be, because of our inconsistencies, and that it's unrealistic to think that a 6-0 record in one possession games is sustainable as we move forward.
The games you cite do not support what you are saying. If we played Maryland another 10 minutes the game might have changed. We played well against Purdue and deserved to win even before Ron’s made shot; We were beating UMASS by 12 at the half and were up 15-17 and then proceeded to go up 15 points with 8 minutes left. Despite the astronomical 3 point disparity of 45 to 9 before Fernandez last second shot , Mag hit a shot with over a minute and we took the lead with 3-4 seconds left at the line and I thought we had the win . In Minnesota we overcame the 17-5 first half hole and took the lead and was up 2 until their center hit a 3 at the buzzer to take a 1 point lead. They proceeded to hit ridiculous shots in the second half but Geo came alive hitting 7-14 from 3 and I still thought we would win and was suprised Geo missed at 11 seconds and suprised we got ball 15 feet from the basket with 6 secbds and we didn’t pull it out.
So dye was not cast
Everything you say is true and well said. However, we have to do 2 things to give us a chance in the next 11 conference games then the tourney.
1st, we have to defend the 3 point line and not give up more than 7 threes a game:
2nd, We need another scorer either Hyatt or Jones or Mag to give us 10 points a game either as a starter ( my preference ) or off the bench and we need Paul and Caleb to give us 16-20 points combined and not 12 or less as they did in 4 of our losses.
Regarding the first point there has been only 2 games we lost where the other team only hit 5 and 6 three pointers and we lost and that was Seton Hall and Penn State . These were 2 of our worst efforts across all parameters but we still were down 8 with 6-7 minutes left despite the dysfunction and closed badly to account for the 14 and 17 point losses. But by limiting the 3’s we still had a chance late.
Regarding the second point, there has been a good discussion on another thread about jump starting the offense to try and prevent our slow starts and getting more than 12 points a game out of Paul and Caleb with their playing 30-35 minutes each , and maybe inserting one of the 3 bench players I mentioned above and sit either Paul or Caleb depending on who starts ( Aundre or Jaden, Paul does not start, Mag, Caleb does not start) . Our chance of winning by scoring 70 points goes way up and we need an extra 8-10 points more either out of Paul and Caleb or the bench guys. The pressure on Ron and Geo to score 20 every night is difficult if we do not get the extra scoring.
Dual points were trying to be made
1. Our lens of this team changes based purely on wins and losses. The Nebraska-Rutgers prediction thread would all be RUTGERS if we were 14-5, even though it is the same team.
2. Demonstration that the margin of a bad season and a good season can literally be 6 possessions.
Most people are killing me with this thread saying I am making excuses saying how bad we are and why we aren't a good team. No one is saying I am an idiot because we arent really a 8-11 team.
The crazy thing is I have been more bearish on this team from Day 1 than most. I know we are 11-8, but honestly this has a feel of a team much worse.
1. Our lens of this team changes based purely on wins and losses. The Nebraska-Rutgers prediction thread would all be RUTGERS if we were 14-5, even though it is the same team.
2. Demonstration that the margin of a bad season and a good season can literally be 6 possessions.
Most people are killing me with this thread saying I am making excuses saying how bad we are and why we aren't a good team. No one is saying I am an idiot because we arent really a 8-11 team.
The crazy thing is I have been more bearish on this team from Day 1 than most. I know we are 11-8, but honestly this has a feel of a team much worse.
As for 1.... my own personal prediction wouldn't change. I still think we're bipolar, and can beat any team on our schedule or lose to any team on our schedule, depending on what team shows up. The final shot in any of those 6 games doesn't change how we played in them for the other 39+ minutes.
2. That's true, but there's a difference between a bad/good "season" and a bad/good "team". Bad teams can have good seasons, and good teams can have bad seasons. Right now we're an inconsistent team having an inconsistent season, which works out to "middling" on both axes.
There have been a cumulative 2478 possessions (half offense and half defense). The data says we are 192nd in offense and 57th in defense and 106th overall. That smells like a bottom quartile team in a power conference.
Average bart game score (50 is D1 average)
2022 58.042
2021 76.845
2020 79.68
2019 66.496
2018 55.747
2022 is 55.8 if you throw out C CT state game (covid). That means this team when looking at all possessions is equivalent to the 2018 team.
2022 58.042
2021 76.845
2020 79.68
2019 66.496
2018 55.747
2022 is 55.8 if you throw out C CT state game (covid). That means this team when looking at all possessions is equivalent to the 2018 team.
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2022 Game scores
As the season is about to start....a reminder how a season can come down to a few possessions.
Thanks for bumping the summary in the OP. Good point.
One asterisk…it was a great season.
One asterisk…it was a great season.
Did not read a lot of the back and forth here
My answer to all this is
“That’s basketball”
So many games are won or lost on the final possession
I rarely watch NBA games, but if you watch the last minute or so, so many games are decided in the final seconds
I would not over analyze, over the course of the season we blew a few and won some also
My answer to all this is
“That’s basketball”
So many games are won or lost on the final possession
I rarely watch NBA games, but if you watch the last minute or so, so many games are decided in the final seconds
I would not over analyze, over the course of the season we blew a few and won some also
It would be nice not having to win the final game of the regular season in the final seconds to get in. Happened 3 years in a row! Threading the needle is hard
“We are not a NCAA team”? I don’t understand, they were an NCAA tournament team…
Edit
lol - I didn’t realize this was 10 months ago…
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