Your first point is similar to that tiered revenue sharing I mentioned, but I'd put OU/Texas on top of that pyramid. I was thinking for further down the line with new tv deals but what you suggests sounds plausible as well. It doesn't just have to be a short term grab, it can be a long term one as well where Texas/OU put themselves on a pedestal above the others and take a larger share.
As to the extension of the GOR, I don't know. Even if there isn't an extension I couldn't say for sure that Texas and to a lesser degree OU will be looking for new homes. That same chain of Texas' little brothers and OSU still is an issue with or without a GOR. I mean the Texas governor is making a stink about expansion without Houston even. Texas isn't even leaving the conference and a local politician is intruding already for a school not in it. Just imagine if they do and OU to a lesser extent how will the local politicians react and what kind of roadblocks would they put up. Hearing that kind of rhetoric makes me think they're more stuck in the conference than not regardless of the existence of a GOR.
I think a 4 team short term money grab from ESPN and Fox would only anger both Broadcasters for the future.
Don't get me wrong ESPN and Fox will honor the terms of the contract and pay the Big 12 maybe an extra $100 million per year for essentially adding 4 AAC type teams. The Big 12 could then tier the payments so that the other 10 teams get a share of the additions for the short term. Hey if the Big 12 wants money they could do an 8 team expansion and get ESPN and Fox to pony up $200 million per year and tier/structure the short term expansion to the point where Texas and Oklahoma get twice as much $$$$ per year as Ohio State and Michigan etc.(with the New Contract) until 2024-2025.
Then reality hits home. ESPN and Fox will remember that they had to pay Big Time money for a Conference that is not worth the money expenditures that they had to make. Additionally, Texas knows that their LHN contract will be coming to an end in 2031and the likely hood of renewal would be zero (unless Texas would accept maybe only $5 million per year for renewal for 20 more years).
In 2023 ESPN and Fox may say the contract for the expanded Big 12 is only worth one half of what Fox and ESPN are currently paying for the B1G contract. Remember ESPN in their negotiations with the B1G only ponied up $190 million per year and may have been prepared to "Walk Away" from the B1G Conference.
In 2023 ESPN may tell the expanded Big 12 we will only pay you $ and if you don't accept we are prepared to "Walk Away". Fox may say the same thing and the Big 12 approaches the market appeal of a glorified AAC Conference.
Maintaining a tier ladder with little $$ to no $ will not work out long term.
Texas and Oklahoma suspect this could be happening and are looking for the escape hatches either separately or in tandem (4 team deal with the Pac). At his point Texas and Oklahoma don't really trust each other (Nebraska,Texas a&m,Missouri and Colorado). Additionally, the Oklahoma politicians don't like the fact that the Texas Gov. is interfering in the Conference moves and now feel the need to protect their own State Universities (aka Oklahoma and Oklahoma State going to the SEC for example).
Texas suspects that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State may be bolting and are in their own "Double Secret" negotiations with the B1G and the ACC Conferences.
The ACC could inform Texas that Notre Dame will be joining as "full time member" in 2024 and they would like Texas to be the 16th member of the ACC Conference. Additionally, ESPN will renegotiate the LHN network into the ACC Network and Texas will be making "Significantly" more $$$$ starting in 2024 than they would have for the remaining years of the LHN. Hey WVU or UConn could be the 16th member of the ACC Conference.
The B1G will have there own story to tell Texas why they should join the B1G maybe with Kansas.
Message Boards will be filled with rumours of potential deals (maybe as early as 2020) as teams look to leave the Big 12 Conference.
Will there be an extension of the GOR's for the Big 12 Conference.
Speculation!!!!
Have to wait to see how it all plays out.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!