BACATOLOGY 3/11: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Going to unconfidently do an update before I hit the sack with Colorado up on Washington State and New Mexico just getting under way with Colorado State. A win by the Buffs will move them above the last 4 in.
LAST FOUR BYES: FLORIDA ATLANTIC, MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS A & M
LAST FOUR IN: SAINT JOHN'S, VIRGINIA, SETON HALL, COLORADO
FIRST FOUR OUT: PROVIDENCE, NEW MEXICO, PITTSBURGH, INDIANA STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: OHIO STATE, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, OREGON
SOME CONSIDERATION: KANSAS STATE, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, CINCINNATI, UTAH, MEMPHIS, VIRGINIA TECH, RICHMOND
LAST FOUR BYES: FLORIDA ATLANTIC, MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS A & M
LAST FOUR IN: SAINT JOHN'S, VIRGINIA, SETON HALL, COLORADO
FIRST FOUR OUT: PROVIDENCE, NEW MEXICO, PITTSBURGH, INDIANA STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: OHIO STATE, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, OREGON
SOME CONSIDERATION: KANSAS STATE, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, CINCINNATI, UTAH, MEMPHIS, VIRGINIA TECH, RICHMOND
Colorado wins
They will meet bid stealer Oregon in the last Pac 12 final.
Lock the Buffs up. I don't know where they sit but they are above the last 4 in...could they be better than a 10...possibly
They will meet bid stealer Oregon in the last Pac 12 final.
Lock the Buffs up. I don't know where they sit but they are above the last 4 in...could they be better than a 10...possibly
Very similar thoughts here, however I have New Mexico currently above Virginia and Seton Hall. Even moreso if they hold on and win in second half against Colorado St.
I'm down to Virginia and Seton Hall for the last spot but there is the potential bid gift in the AAC if FAU wins it and of course Oregon / NC St thievery looms.
Should be a fun weekend!
and there it is...New Mexico beats Colorado State convincingly. Going to be extremely difficult to keep the Lobos out
Hey there bracketologist..tough one this year but in some ways with all this wackiness around the bubble, I am waking up with at least some clarity
Two bid stealers out there and I am just trying to figure out that last spot
Yeah its not a good feeling and Seton Hall fans who have been fairly confident all week may get the rug pulled out from under them
Would serve them right for losing to us at home.
Can't wait for that league to implode and listen to bilas whine that they have been reduced to a one bid league.
If I were the Cheats coach, my game plan would be to run run run and cycle in fresh players, while baiting NCSU's physical big guy (DJ Burns) into fouling. Wolfpack has got to be tired. Cheats are 9.5-point favorites.
Wow, ESPN dude has NU up to a 7 seed in Charlotte. Not sure that will happen without winning the Big 10 tourney.
@bac2therac is there a difference between last 4 in and last 4 at large seeds? And if so can you speak to that at all? Since it sounds like the seeding and selection criteria are not identical (particularly in relation to the consideration of individual NET rankings) it would make sense that those lists of teams also may not be identical. And in that case, which group ends up in Dayton?
Naturally bringing this up in relation to SHU who, if they get in, would be a bottom at large seeds based on NET but could be a bit more safe for getting in if the selection process itself doesn't consider the individual NET. Is there a possibility of avoiding Dayton while teams that "got in" after them but are seeded ahead of them go instead?
Naturally bringing this up in relation to SHU who, if they get in, would be a bottom at large seeds based on NET but could be a bit more safe for getting in if the selection process itself doesn't consider the individual NET. Is there a possibility of avoiding Dayton while teams that "got in" after them but are seeded ahead of them go instead?
its a little bullish...their sos non conference being that bad and questionable road play are the issues here...however the overall net up to 31 and sor now at 22 are good signs. I have them at an 8 right now but of course winning the Big 10 would get them a 7
Brown hitting everything but Princeton didn't really show up that half. Down 13 at the half
yes this is true, its not necessarily the last 4 in who play in Dayton....while it works out like that many times, the seeding process is seperate so a school like Texas A&M might be one of the last couple in but because of their resume and metrics may end up not being in those first four games.
so impact games for today
Brown/Princeton.....Princeton already down by 13 to Brown at half and pretty much no chance for an at large from the Ivy
UMass Lowell/Vermont.....Lowell up by a few at half in the America East final. Vermont hoping to be a 13 seed
Mississippi State/Auburn.....looks like the Bulldogs locked in yesterday while the Tigers still have hopes for that last 3 spot
Wisconsin/Purdue.....can the Badgers get a 5? Straddling very close between 5/6
Nebraska/Illinois.....Nebby looking good on that 8/9 line. Illini an outside shot at a 3
UAB/South Florida.....Can the Bulls keep it going in this semifinal game or will one more bid open for the bubble
Texas A&M/Florida.....Aggies have 13 Q1/2 wins but 5 Q3 losses. I think they are in. Florida trying to push toward a 6 seed
Temple/Florida Atlantic.....Owls are not as safe as some think. A loss here which would be a low end Q3 loss would really raise questions about their resume which has 2 Q4 losses.
New Mexico/San Diego State.....Lobos moved in the field last night but its a tenuous position. Aztecs might actually push for a 4 seed with a win.
Saint Peters/Fairfield.....MAAC championship on the line and a probably 15th seed for the winner.
Kent State/Akron.....MAC championship where the favored Zips are straddling the 13/14 line
UTEP/Western Kentucky.....not the CUSA final that was expected that is for sure
North Carolina State/North Carolina.....can the Wolfpack be a bid stealer and whose will they take?
Oregon/Colorado.....Buffs look above the fray not so for the Ducks another bid stealer looming who need to win to get in
Long Beach State/UC Davis....going to root for the 49ers in the Big West final since their fired coach is still coaching them.
Texas Southern/Grambling State.....SWAC final where winner will be sent to the play in games
Texas Arlington/Grand Canyon.....Lopes looking like a possible 12 seed if they can win the WAC tourney final
Brown/Princeton.....Princeton already down by 13 to Brown at half and pretty much no chance for an at large from the Ivy
UMass Lowell/Vermont.....Lowell up by a few at half in the America East final. Vermont hoping to be a 13 seed
Mississippi State/Auburn.....looks like the Bulldogs locked in yesterday while the Tigers still have hopes for that last 3 spot
Wisconsin/Purdue.....can the Badgers get a 5? Straddling very close between 5/6
Nebraska/Illinois.....Nebby looking good on that 8/9 line. Illini an outside shot at a 3
UAB/South Florida.....Can the Bulls keep it going in this semifinal game or will one more bid open for the bubble
Texas A&M/Florida.....Aggies have 13 Q1/2 wins but 5 Q3 losses. I think they are in. Florida trying to push toward a 6 seed
Temple/Florida Atlantic.....Owls are not as safe as some think. A loss here which would be a low end Q3 loss would really raise questions about their resume which has 2 Q4 losses.
New Mexico/San Diego State.....Lobos moved in the field last night but its a tenuous position. Aztecs might actually push for a 4 seed with a win.
Saint Peters/Fairfield.....MAAC championship on the line and a probably 15th seed for the winner.
Kent State/Akron.....MAC championship where the favored Zips are straddling the 13/14 line
UTEP/Western Kentucky.....not the CUSA final that was expected that is for sure
North Carolina State/North Carolina.....can the Wolfpack be a bid stealer and whose will they take?
Oregon/Colorado.....Buffs look above the fray not so for the Ducks another bid stealer looming who need to win to get in
Long Beach State/UC Davis....going to root for the 49ers in the Big West final since their fired coach is still coaching them.
Texas Southern/Grambling State.....SWAC final where winner will be sent to the play in games
Texas Arlington/Grand Canyon.....Lopes looking like a possible 12 seed if they can win the WAC tourney final
things are becoming a bit clearer but still tough call...
LAST FOUR BYES: NORTHWESTERN, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA
LAST FOUR IN: VIRGINIA, SETON HALL, NEW MEXICO, TEXAS A & M
FIRST FOUR OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, PROVIDENCE, PITTSBURGH, INDIANA STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: OREGON, KANSAS STATE, OHIO STATE, VILLANOVA
SOME CONSIDERATION: WAKE FOREST, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, CINCINNATI, UTAH, MEMPHIS, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA TECH
LAST FOUR BYES: NORTHWESTERN, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA
LAST FOUR IN: VIRGINIA, SETON HALL, NEW MEXICO, TEXAS A & M
FIRST FOUR OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, PROVIDENCE, PITTSBURGH, INDIANA STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: OREGON, KANSAS STATE, OHIO STATE, VILLANOVA
SOME CONSIDERATION: WAKE FOREST, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, CINCINNATI, UTAH, MEMPHIS, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA TECH
this year it seems each bubble team has a different strength in one thing where other bubble teams have a weakness and a different weakness in others where another bubble team has a strength
insane this year. Its going to come down to whatever the committee sides with. Its going to be hard for them to move past the possible story of Pitino in the tournament...its just that subjective though that seeps through in the selection process. But if the eye test is any indication, its clear that St Johns is a ncaa tourney team, Providence looked like one too. Not so sure anyone can say the same about Seton Hall. How much watching of the Big East tourney did the committee do and how much weight will they put on it vs the rest of the season. SHU has the best wins but remember that was a long time ago. They literally did NOTHING out of conference and that is a big deal for the committee. Providence has an injured player that definitely effected their late season. That isnt erased because they played 2 impressive games in the tourney. Remember most had them OUT coming into tourney play. Saint Johns has the least impressive wins of the bunch.
Such a tough call. Many including me seem to be dismissing Indiana State out of hand but the committee may feel more foregiving if they are not really considering conference play
Whatever happens someone gets ****ed this year and there will be bitching....will it be Buzz again...I mean 5 Q3 losses is insane...is another late push enough...I would like to see them to just win the tourney to make it academic
Oregon and NC State as bid stealers...Virginia just sucks but because they are 10-10 in Q1/2 and 7-0 in Q3, those are things the committee likes even as they do not have impressive wins, If NC State wins I cannot see how Virginia survives.
Remember one bid may open if Florida Atlantic can win the AAC
insane this year. Its going to come down to whatever the committee sides with. Its going to be hard for them to move past the possible story of Pitino in the tournament...its just that subjective though that seeps through in the selection process. But if the eye test is any indication, its clear that St Johns is a ncaa tourney team, Providence looked like one too. Not so sure anyone can say the same about Seton Hall. How much watching of the Big East tourney did the committee do and how much weight will they put on it vs the rest of the season. SHU has the best wins but remember that was a long time ago. They literally did NOTHING out of conference and that is a big deal for the committee. Providence has an injured player that definitely effected their late season. That isnt erased because they played 2 impressive games in the tourney. Remember most had them OUT coming into tourney play. Saint Johns has the least impressive wins of the bunch.
Such a tough call. Many including me seem to be dismissing Indiana State out of hand but the committee may feel more foregiving if they are not really considering conference play
Whatever happens someone gets ****ed this year and there will be bitching....will it be Buzz again...I mean 5 Q3 losses is insane...is another late push enough...I would like to see them to just win the tourney to make it academic
Oregon and NC State as bid stealers...Virginia just sucks but because they are 10-10 in Q1/2 and 7-0 in Q3, those are things the committee likes even as they do not have impressive wins, If NC State wins I cannot see how Virginia survives.
Remember one bid may open if Florida Atlantic can win the AAC
I think its fair to say that Oklahoma with a 4-12 mark vs Q1 and only 2 wins vs the field should be worried. The only thing that may save them is SOR of 32 and that would be the highest left out.
