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BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37

Update on my W/L ranking

(Note: this thing is not actually a tournament prediction model. If wanting to see who will actually be in the tournament the proper weighting is:
My thing 0%
Bac 100%)

#1s
Arizona*
Gonzaga*
Kansas*
Baylor

#2s
Villanova*
Providence
Tennessee*
Auburn

#3s
Purdue*
Texas Tech
Kentucky
Wisconsin

#4s
UCLA
Connecticut
Colorado St
Murray St*

#5s
Duke
Arkansas
St Mary's CA
Illinois

#6s
Texas
Houston*
USC
Creighton

#7s
Seton Hall
Iowa
Boise St*
Marquette

#8s
Michigan St
San Diego St
Iowa St
TCU

#9s
LSU
Texas A&M
Wyoming
Alabama

#10s
Ohio St
North Carolina
Davidson*
Oklahoma

#11s
Xavier
San Francisco
Michigan/Indiana
Memphis/Colorado

#12s
S Dakota St*
Virginia Tech*
Loyola-Chicago*
New Mexico St*

#13s
UAB*
Chattanooga*
Vermont*
Princeton*

#14s
Montana St*
Delaware*
Akron*
Longwood*

#15s
CS Fullerton*
Georgia St*
St Peter's*
Jacksonville St*

#16s
Norfolk St*
Colgate*
Bryant*/Wright St*
TX Southern*/TAM C. Christi*

Last Four Byes
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Xavier
San Francisco

Last Four In
Michigan
Indiana
Memphis
Colorado

First Four Out
Miami FL
Rutgers
West Virginia
S Dakota St

Next Four Out
Notre Dame
Oklahoma St
SMU
Florida

What is sdakota st doing there
 
Brad Wachtel says history says Rutgers is left out, yet when was the last team to go 8-6 against the field and pick up 6 Quad 1 wins and be left out? Leaving us out would be historic too. I don’t see them caring all that much about the metrics, at least for selection.

We are scandalous
 
What is the "best info" I have?

If I am trying to predict which teams are the best teams I should be using scoring margin and probably even other game statistics all day. But sports playoffs are not about picking the "best" teams. You really want to live in a world where the difference between a 1 point win and a 1 point loss is just.. two points? That's insane, that just completely subverts the purpose and fun of sports in the first place.

I'm not saying you can't use computers to help select (because I completely agree that 300 plus teams playing unbalanced schedules is not something than can be sorted by, say, winning percentage) but feed those computers wins and losses only. Leave the predictive metrics where they belong, doing predictions. A team like Providence or Wisconsin should be rewarded for winning all of those games even if they would be very unlikely to repeat the performance if they had to go through the schedule again.
For an at large selection process we should live in a world where that’s a big part of the process. Hell it’s just a clearer understanding of the “eye test” which everyone wants to heavily rely on.
 
For an at large selection process we should live in a world where that’s a big part of the process.
I just don't agree but it's a philosophical difference that I can't see getting resolved.
Hell it’s just a clearer understanding of the “eye test” which everyone wants to heavily rely on.
I don't want to use the "eye test" either.
 
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True. But it appears we’re headed to Dayton I would assume…which isn’t the NCAA.

it’s a “play in game” to play into the ncaa. Again, if we lose that game…it’s worse than making a long run in the NIT.
And yes, both are disappointments
Respectfully disagree. Seeing our name called today is an achievement that will allow us to hold our heads up high all off-season. It will mean 3 straight years of success, real meaningful success. Not building block success like football these last couple of years, not Billett & Hodgson success where we’re happy just to be taken seriously. I mean actual this-is-what-you-play-the-game-for success. Play-in games are being part of the tournament as much as being a 1 seed is. You’re in the brackets. Playing at Madison Square Garden against Virginia Commonwealth is not success. The philosophical difference between losing a play-in game and winning 5 straight in the NIT is larger than you are recognizing.
 
I know it doesn't work like this but it seems most logical just to throw us in the first 4 due to our bizarre resume. Then the people who saw we should be in are right and those who don't force us to play a prove it game to get into the field of 64.
Putting RU in the First Four seems like a nice safe decision for the committee. Likely the best outcome that we can expect.
 
Only benefit to NIT is if you have a young team who just missed out on the tournament. Use the NIT as opportunity to get better and set the stage for next season.

NIT with a veteran-laden team would be hard to get up for.
And that's the thing...does Geo, Ron, etc get up to play in the Consolation Tourney? I highly doubt it.
 
Bracket Dave has us as an 11 seed this morning.


Not sure if anyone pays attention to Fonseca on here but he's so lost on bracketology. Yesterday he declared Dayton losing to Richmond was bad for us and today's it's we're 100% out if Richmond wins.
 
so your prior post was an exaggeration. Lots of that on this board.

NIT finals >>>>>>>>>>> losing a play in game
Disagree. Just because I’ll watch. Doesn’t mean it’s better than the first four. I watch pre season football. But don’t care about it much.
 
Probably for our case, only the Davidson result matters. Texas A&M is likely in already, so if they won they would just maybe move ahead of us, not kick us out
 
Probably for our case, only the Davidson result matters. Texas A&M is likely in already, so if they won they would just maybe move ahead of us, not kick us out
Which is kind of BS if they in over us. They were on no one’s radar prior to this weekend. What happened to whole body of work versus recency bias.
 
I don't see the team caring enough to want to get to MSG if they end up in the NIT. The NIT is good for young teams to get experience. A senior heavy team like us would half ass it.

shows the character of the team if they do that
 
Having trouble seperating Michigan/ Indiana/ Rutgers

2 go to Dayton..one is an 11. Michigan has the best metrics but most losses 6-12 vs field. Rutgers has best wins 8-6 but worst metrics. Indiana is consistent in both but yet not as dynamic as the other 2. Very tough to call

Along my last in spot i am having trouble seperating Wyoming, Notre Dame, and Xavier. Wyoming is just 3-5 vs field picked up one when Fullerton won last night yet 11 q1 wins are they legit. Notre Dame has a big win vs Kentucky but just 2-7 vs field and 4-9 in q1/2. Xavier is 5-9 vs field yet its overall an unspectacular resume at 18-13 tgat we see ledt out all the time. None of their 5 q1 wins are high end

Really tough call
 
I don't usually watch the selection show

Do they announce the 4 play in teams all together or jsut as they get to that game in each region?
 
Which is kind of BS if they in over us. They were on no one’s radar prior to this weekend. What happened to whole body of work versus recency bias.

Its a solid resume without warts. I said in my analysis early in the week if they made the finals they were in. They got 2 very good high end q1 wins to go with 3 quality wins they had. They dont have the q4 loss
 
i do. Last few games playing with each other.

again, if they don’t take it seriously their true colors will show
Their true colors will show? I would decline an invite, if they didn't decline, then just give a ton of minutes to Reiber, Mag, Palmquist, Hyatt, Agee, Miller and Jones (if healthy).

There is no badge of honor for having to play in a meaningless tournament
 
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Wachtel still has us in Dayton. He admits to not being confident in our fate though

 
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