Eh, what does Taiwan know? If they really had something important to offer the WHO would be working with them.Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in other public places—a recommendation that has been widely complied with. The country continues to function fully, and their schools have been open since the end of February, while their death total remains very low, at only six.
Go out any day and you will see too many jerseyites out and about mostly at the supermarkets where people used to shop perhaps once per week now it’s 3-4 times a week .They are continuing to go back to multiple stores for items which they want but haven’t been able to get. Wait for the pork OOS which is coming. Also there have been issues with cereals, flour , even vegetables ... too many people with nothing to do go to the only place they can walk around without the fear of being ticketed for being out... supermarkets have become our exercise outlet.Why is social distancing not working in NJ?
No further comment needed. Simply indefensible and nobody corrected him. Birx and Fauci must be out of their minds on this one. He really needs to stop talking about anything scientific. And no, this is not a political post.
https://thehill.com/homenews/corona...ght-heat-as-coronavirus-treatment?jwsource=cl
wow now who is attacking someone... like I said fool I was posting to another on this board about the dialysis question... I won’t grace your taunt about “drive a spike into my brain” ... that is more weird and shows just how f’d up you are to some on this board ... those you see as not agreeing with you are thought of as less but I will say this ... your comment is way too threatening...You're a psycho. Literally nothing you said has anything to do with anything I said. I wasn't addressing you in any way.
Here's a thought - go drive a spike into your brain hole. Let us know if you hit anything.
F*ckin' weirdo.
No further comment needed. Simply indefensible and nobody corrected him. Birx and Fauci must be out of their minds on this one. He really needs to stop talking about anything scientific. And no, this is not a political post.
https://thehill.com/homenews/corona...ght-heat-as-coronavirus-treatment?jwsource=cl
Summary/commentary for some key World/US data through 4/18.
Some comments on NY/NJ/US and from Cuomo’s 4/19 presser
- The most important number in comparing outbreak severity, IMO, is deaths per 1MM people (cases and hospitalizations are important too, but are subject to much more error). Italy, Spain and Belgium are the highest in the world, in the neighborhood of 400-500 deaths/1MM. The US is in the middle of the pack with ~120 deaths/1MM, although the US is earlier in its outbreak and will likely catch up somewhat.
- While the US, overall, looks better by comparison, if NY were a country it would have the worst outbreak in the world at 900 deaths/1MM, while NJ is in the range of those European countries at ~460 deaths/1MM. Have talked about why this is in other posts and will revisit shortly...
- Excluding NY/NJ, the rest of the US is “only” at 53 deaths per 1MM, which is similar to Germany, the “best” of the populous European countries with 55 deaths/1MM. But that needs to be put in context of what is considered “good” control of the epidemic: South Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and more all have <10 deaths/1MM and were all hit with their first waves before the US and Europe. Most experts believe the differences are primarily due to how much better these countries did with early/aggressive testing, aggressive contact tracing and quarantining, moderate to aggressive social distancing, and establishing a mask culture.
- Of course, there are also many other countries in South/Central America, Africa, and Asia with <10 deaths/1MM, but it’s possible some of that is due to some combo of low population density and much less travel to these locations and perhaps some of it is due to “seasonality” (like flu) where the virus is less virulent in warm/humid climates – will be interesting to see if these locations (especially in the southern hemisphere) start to see increases soon.
- It’s worth noting that Iran is the only country outside of Europe and the US which has >50 deaths/1MM (62) US deaths have roughly plateaued in the 1500-2500/day range for about the past 12 days (with some fluctuations, including a huge fluctuation when NY added 3800 deaths on 4/14 that were presumed due to COVID, but never had a viral test done (most were in hospitals and it was obvious they had COVID, so the tests were skipped); hopefully we’ll see this start to decline in a week or so, as deaths lag cases. NY deaths per day plateaued around 700-800 per day for over a week, but have slowly dropped to about 500/day over the last 4 days. NJ deaths look like they are starting to decline.
- 39.0K, 17.7K and 4.0K 28.5K total deaths, respectively, through 4/18 in the US, NY, and NJ. It’s now looking like my 4/5 guesstimate of 40-50K US deaths in this first wave will be a little low; the U of Washington latest projection is for 60K deaths (they were at 82K on 4/5).
- The Earth hit 2.33MM positive cases on 4/18 with 739K cases in the US, 241K in NY and 81K in NJ.
- Both NY and NJ have reached the “peak plateau” in new cases, with some decline starting to occur, especially in NY, which saw its lowest new case number (6K) since 3/25although there have been a few large fluctuations, likely related to testing rates; the US has reached a peak plateau also and has stayed there for about 2 weeks, although it looks like a decline might be starting.
- NY now has done about 30K tests per 1MM in population, which is more than almost any other country; NJ is at 18K tests per 1MM and the US is at 11K tests per 1MM, both of which are middle-of-the-pack (vs. countries with major outbreaks)
- Some very good news: total number of hospitalized in NY has steadily declined from about 19K to 16K over the last 4-5 days.
- As promised, NY is now sending ventilators to other needy states, like Massachusetts, Michigan and Maryland
- Currently three states are showing close to a 10% increase on 4/18 vs. 4/17: Nebraska (13%), Ohio (12.2% and South Dakota 9.3%).
- Cuomo thanked the 1.1MM front line health care workers in NY, as well as the 95K medical staff who voluntarily came to NY simply to help.
- He talked at length on the path back to the “new normal” with the major focus on the need for fast, massive testing for the virus, to know who is sick or getting sick, so they can be quarantined and their contacts traced, as well as massive antibody testing to know who already has had the virus and now likely has immunity, at least for months to maybe years.
- He then announced NY’s ambitious program, starting tomorrow, to test thousands of people from a random, representative sample of the population, to estimate the percentage of people in NY who have had the virus: 1.2% of NY has tested positive by the virus test and there are estimates of 5-15-30% of the general population having been infected (and having antibodies) with most not knowing it. That number greatly impacts how many can go back to work without risks of getting or giving the virus and how much more transmission will occur (with less targets).
- He reiterated the plan for NY/NJ/CT/RI/PA/MA/DE to manage the process of staged “reopenings” for their areas in a regionally coordinated fashion – doesn’t mean “identical” but it will at least be “coordinated.” Also talked about how we should be thinking of how this is an opportunity to improve health care, transportation and education, especially with technology.
- He also reiterated the bipartisan NGA’s (Nat’l Gov’s Assoc) call for $500BB to help state/local budget shortfalls which were not addressed in CARES.
I said 20 ft for dramatic effect.
6' would be great, but how possible is it? I go to the grocery store, and as much as I try, I get within 6' of people multiple times per visit.
In one of the recent posts on this thread there is a link which references I think Hong Kong which notes the importance of masks and how they have been able to keep infections so low.
And imo it is obvious via empirical evidence, it sucks to wear the mask because your breath is trapped.
Edit: From previous page,
Hong Kong’s health authorities credit their citizens’ near-universal mask-wearing as a key factor (surveys show almost 100 percent voluntary compliance). Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in other public places—a recommendation that has been widely complied with. The country continues to function fully, and their schools have been open since the end of February, while their death total remains very low, at only six.
I'll answer you: the social distancing is far more important than the masks. The problem is people don't really practice it very well. If you keep more than 6 feet from others (face to face distance) and wash your hands before touching your face after touching any questionable surface, you simply won't catch the virus short of an NBA 3-pointer of a supersneeze. The mask is a backup solution for when people get closer than 6 feet and it's a decent visual reminder to people to not get closer than 6 feet - it's not unimportant, but it's way less important than the preceding. Every epidemiologist and virologist will tell you this.Your response does not provide what I asked you for: which is a statement that the mask is more important. All your quote does is say that the mask is important it doesn't say the mask is more important. But I don't wish to debate the point further; it would not be a productive use of time.
Go out any day and you will see too many jerseyites out and about mostly at the supermarkets where people used to shop perhaps once per week now it’s 3-4 times a week .They are continuing to go back to multiple stores for items which they want but haven’t been able to get.
The problem is the impracticality of it. In rural areas sure, not that big of a deal, in NYC, it's just not going to happen, unless you shut down the economy, which as we know has some adverse effects.I'll answer you: the social distancing is far more important than the masks. The problem is people don't really practice it very well. If you keep more than 6 feet from others (face to face distance) and wash your hands before touching your face after touching any questionable surface, you simply won't catch the virus short of an NBA 3-pointer of a supersneeze. The mask is a backup solution for when people get closer than 6 feet and it's a decent visual reminder to people to not get closer than 6 feet - it's not unimportant, but it's way less important than the preceding. Every epidemiologist and virologist will tell you this.
Good point about surfaces. In addition to reducing breathing or sneezing directly on someone else, a mask also reduces breathing or sneezing directly on surfaces. It also helps reduce touching your mouth or nose and then touching surfaces, further aiding virus spread.The super market checkout is the perfect example of why masks are more important.
1)Your distance to the cashier is going to be less then 6 ft.
2)and more importantly, the surfaces. You put your food on the belt the cashier passes it through to another surface, you pick it up and put it in your bag. Not to mention just touching the rails or the credit card machine, or the cash. The mask keeps the virus from being on these surfaces. Social distancing is not an option in these situations.
So numbers when do realistically think a vaccine will come to market?Pretty big news: a Chinese team has shown that rhesus macaques (similar immune system to humans) vaccinated with an "old school" deactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus, were all immune from infection with the virus, even at fairly low vaccine doses. Human trials have just begun with this virus. It's not as "advanced" technology-wise as many of the other vaccines under development, but getting one to work is all that matters and most vaccines on the market are weakened/deactivated viruses. It was only 8 monkeys and there are still many challenges ahead, but this is still pretty big news and a huge step forward. There are 6 other vaccines in early clinical trials and 77 other vaccines under development.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...nkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports
For the first time, one of the many COVID-19 vaccines in development has protected an animal, rhesus macaques, from infection by the new coronavirus, scientists report. The vaccine, an old-fashioned formulation consisting of a chemically inactivated version of the virus, produced no obvious side effects in the monkeys, and human trials began on 16 April.
Researchers from Sinovac Biotech, a privately held Beijing-based company, gave two different doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to a total of eight rhesus macaque monkeys. Three weeks later, the group introduced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into the monkeys’ lungs through tubes down their tracheas, and none developed a full-blown infection.
“I like it,” says Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai who has co-authored a status report about the many different COVID-19 vaccines in development. “This is old school but it might work. What I like most is that many vaccine producers, also in lower–middle-income countries, could make such a vaccine.”
But Douglas Reed of the University of Pittsburgh, who is developing and testing COVID-19 vaccines in monkey studies, says the number of animals was too small to yield statistically significant results. His team also has a manuscript in preparation that raises concerns about the way the Sinovac team grew the stock of novel coronavirus used to challenge the animals: It may have caused changes that make it less reflective of the ones that infect humans.
I agree masks are important for very crowded areas (or certain jobs), where SD can be impossible, but for those, I'd far rather see people wearing N95 masks to protect both others and themselves. It's sad that we can't figure out how to make enough of them, when we know they're far better for keeping viruses out than cloth/surgical masks. And if people are a little bit creative, they don't need to treat them as "disposable" as they can just rotate 3-4 of them, so that each time they use a mask it has sat for >72 hours, which should be enough to ensure no viable viruses remain.The problem is the impracticality of it. In rural areas sure, not that big of a deal, in NYC, it's just not going to happen, unless you shut down the economy, which as we know has some adverse effects.
Assuming we pursue the "healthy volunteer human challenge" approach (see link) which could cut "many months" off the development/approval timeline (and I can't imagine why we wouldn't pursue it to save potentially hundreds of thousands of lives), I could see a vaccine being ready for at least high risk people (health care workers, elderly, underlying conditions) by Nov/Dec (scaling up production for the world will take many months though). I know that sounds too good to be true, but with dozens of vaccine approaches being evaluated and now knowing that an old school vaccine works in monkeys, which is huge, I think the combined power of the pharma industry will come through.So numbers when do realistically think a vaccine will come to market?
So numbers when do realistically think a vaccine will come to market?
That's an understatement...if I had a loved one in a nursing home I would have removed them by now.
No further comment needed. Simply indefensible and nobody corrected him. Birx and Fauci must be out of their minds on this one. He really needs to stop talking about anything scientific. And no, this is not a political post.
https://thehill.com/homenews/corona...ght-heat-as-coronavirus-treatment?jwsource=cl
Good point about surfaces. In addition to reducing breathing or sneezing directly on someone else, a mask also reduces breathing or sneezing directly on surfaces. It also helps reduce touching your mouth or nose and then touching surfaces, further aiding virus spread.
The best would be if the camera was on Fauci and Birx and they both did massive eye rolls as soon as he said it.
Assuming we pursue the "healthy volunteer human challenge" approach (see link) which could cut "many months" off the development/approval timeline (and I can't imagine why we wouldn't pursue it to save potentially hundreds of thousands of lives), I could see a vaccine being ready for at least high risk people (health care workers, elderly, underlying conditions) by Nov/Dec (scaling up production for the world will take many months though). I know that sounds too good to be true, but with dozens of vaccine approaches being evaluated and now knowing that an old school vaccine works in monkeys, which is huge, I think the combined power of the pharma industry will come through.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-79#post-4521358
If that clip is not spliced or altered in any way, it is absolutely priceless! She looked as if she was about to scream and her head was gonna explode like Mt. Vesuvius!!!
IMHO, these guys will be first .......
https://www.biospace.com/article/moderna-vaccine-clinical-trial-moves-into-2nd-round-of-dosing/
Disagree as I said over a month ago...IMHO, these guys will be first .......
https://www.biospace.com/article/moderna-vaccine-clinical-trial-moves-into-2nd-round-of-dosing/
Probably a lot of us have a few n95 type masks around the house. I know I've used them for various projects (woodworking mainly).
I agree masks are important for very crowded areas (or certain jobs), where SD can be impossible, but for those, I'd far rather see people wearing N95 masks to protect both others and themselves.
J&J and Sanofi are leading the way and doing a great job. My former colleague now leads the Sanofi US Vaccine BU. She's bullish on how quickly a product will make it to market.Excellent blog entry by Derek Lowe (In the Pipeline) on the major vaccine candidates under development right now, although he acknowledges there are dozens more. Interesting to see J&J's comments about being able to deliver a billion doses if needed. I would imagine the other major vaccine manufacturers, like Merck, GSK, and Sanofi, will also offer up manufacturing capability for an effort like this, even if they don't develop the new vaccines, much like Merck did with the Ebola vaccine several years ago.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...ntrunning-coronavirus-vaccines-as-of-april-23
Unreal.About 50% on board a packed flight to this area without masks but two in full hazmat suits.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/airline-passenger-describes-flight-with-many-not-wearing-masks/amp/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/airline-passenger-describes-flight-with-many-not-wearing-masks/amp/