COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[CERU00]

I dunno- in my daily travels I see most people complying. I am out most days because I still have to go into work. You're always going to have the knucklehead factor. I did see one guy walking with mask on top of his head - um, doesn't quite work that way.

My perception could be influenced by the fact that our area in Delaware has not been hit too hard. We had restrictions in place before it was completely out of control so maybe people are willing to assume more risk. At a visit to a grocery store 90% people under 25(mostly college students)are not wearing masks. Maybe 50% of middle aged people are not wearing masks. I just look at them with a look like what the hell is wrong with you... Is it due to ignorance or lack of concern for others. Or both?
All the while, thoughtful and generous people are giving homemade masks away advertised through various social media sites.

 

[RU-05]

They prevent you from spreading a virus but they really don't protect you from getting it

Ya, so in other words they very much do something. They prevent the spread of the virus, to a large extent at least.

 

[RU4Real]

So we got this goin' for us...which is nice...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0015028220303848

Yeah, but now you have to add "scrotal discomfort" to the list of possible Covid symptoms.

Jeez...

 

[RU-05]

. Is it due to ignorance or lack of concern for others. Or both?

I think it is very much ignorance, they hear the "it doesn't really protect you from getting the virus" and that is all they hear.

I think young people also think they are not part of the vulnerable group but do not see themselves as links in the chain which might wipe out a nursing home.

 

[goru7]

This is pretty good news imo

That sure is good news, that NYC that has been hit hardest with cases and deaths, has 21% with antibodies and therefore safe to return to society(most likely) is fabulous news and upstate with only 3.6% also reflects lack of cases , both helpful in planning reopening. Sample size was 3000 and only people outside working in grocery stores or shopping tested and no testing of total quarantined people but it just started MONDAY and NY will ramp it up quickly to 20,000 for a better estimate. NY has done more testing than anywhere so their numbers carry more wait than NJ or elsewhere that has been hit hard by this virus.

I know there is a lot of hope for Remdesiver as a treatment option, but I mentioned last week about a monoclonal antibody drug called Leronlimab made by Cytodyn , a small Vancouver biotech company , that is having success in treatment of Covid and the FDA has approved 2 studies for use for mild/ moderate cases and for severe cases and results hopefully will be known by May 12. Leronlimab has already been in Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials for the treatment of AIDS and for some Breast cancer , so it’s Covid use was an afterthought as an experimental drug ( which needs approval from the FDA every time it is used) and the company is trying to get it used for compassionate use, which will not require individual person approval and can just be used by doctors on the frontline. The early success is apparently 2 fold but the biggest thing it is a viral inhibitor that prevents the bodies immune system from attacking that I presume is causing the deaths of people on ventilators . The side effects in the treated patients are minimal so far. Too soon to know, but this drug used in combination with others , might be the treatment protocol for Covid and even prevent people from getting to the moderate or severe stage

 

[RU4Real]

I think it is very much ignorance, they hear the "it doesn't really protect you from getting the virus" and that is all they hear.

I think young people also think they are not part of the vulnerable group but do not see themselves as links in the chain which might wipe out a nursing home.

This is a spectacularly missed point, for a lot of people.

Just this morning I saw a social media post from a friend - a smart, successful guy - asking why schools are still closed because NJ hasn't had a pediatric Covid death, to this point.

The questions totally misses the fact that little kids are natural disease vectors. Even if they don't get sick, they have a tendency to infect pretty much everyone they come in contact with.

 

[RU-05]

Milwaukee during the Spanish Flu:

"Following state recommendations, Ruhland on Oct. 10 agreed to close churches and other public gatherings. Public funerals were banned. On Oct. 12, Ruhland closed all schools.

Although saloons were allowed to remain open as usual for dining, "patrons stopping by for a drink had to consume it quickly and then leave," Navarro said. "

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news...osed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/

 

[RU848789]

This is a spectacularly missed point, for a lot of people.

Just this morning I saw a social media post from a friend - a smart, successful guy - asking why schools are still closed because NJ hasn't had a pediatric Covid death, to this point.

The questions totally misses the fact that little kids are natural disease vectors. Even if they don't get sick, they have a tendency to infect pretty much everyone they come in contact with.

Same thing with all those moron protesters who can't take a few weeks of SD - when many of these folks are the ones best equipped in their end-of-days bunkers. Imagine folks protesting like this during WWII about their "liberties" being abridged a bit or not being able to go to the salon.

As a small aside, epidemiologically, our best move still might have been to quarantine all school kids for 3-4 weeks with very young chaperones/teachers, so they all got infected and immune/not-contagious. Ethically, maybe a few hurdles, lol.

 

[RU-05]

This is a spectacularly missed point, for a lot of people.

Just this morning I saw a social media post from a friend - a smart, successful guy - asking why schools are still closed because NJ hasn't had a pediatric Covid death, to this point.

The questions totally misses the fact that little kids are natural disease vectors. Even if they don't get sick, they have a tendency to infect pretty much everyone they come in contact with.

I hear this sort of stuff from people who also say things like: "I can't listen to the news it's too negative" or "the news focuses on sensationalism and causes hysteria".

 

[RU-05]

Same thing with all those moron protesters who can't take a few weeks of SD - when many of these folks are the ones best equipped in their end-of-days bunkers. Imagine folks protesting like this during WWII about their "liberties" being abridged a bit or not being able to go to the salon.

As a small aside, epidemiologically, our best move still might have been to quarantine all school kids for 3-4 weeks with very young chaperones/teachers, so they all got infected and immune/not-contagious. Ethically, maybe a few hurdles, lol.

One reluctant mask wearer (granted he was wearing a mask) said "people under 30 don't remember when this was a free country".

There are rebuttals aplenty, but I wasn't willing to go down that rabbit hole while at work.

 

[Ridge 22]

Don't forget there are those who, even in a pandemic, need the "cool factor" and don't feel cool wearing a mask. Have had some colleagues say earlier on "i'm not going to wear a mask and look like an idiot, they can't make me"

So instead of looking like an idiot, I guess they would simply prefer to an idiot

 

[cohwx]

So instead of looking like an idiot, I guess they would simply prefer to an idiot

I don't think it's an option for a lot of people. They're simply idiots.

 

[RU848789]

I thought people are not supposed to wear surgical or N95 masks? Instead we're supposed to be using cloth masks, and I think bac is right that they do better at protecting others than at protecting the wearer. Am I way off base?

You're correct on the CDC guidance to leave surgical masks/N95 to medical needs (due to shorages), but technically, surgical masks are similar to cloth masks from a general lack of effectiveness perspective with regard to protecting the wearer by filtering out droplets or small particles, so I was speaking about them together from that perspective.

They're not true filters like N95 respirators, which protect the wearer from viruses, but will work to keep sneezes/coughs inside the covering. Also, lately, surgical masks seem to be available. And lastly, since they don't protect the wearer that much, people shouldn't allow wearing a cloth/surgical mask to give them confidence to ignore the 6-foot social distancing guidance.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/covid-19-face-mask-advice-explained/

 

[cohwx]

You're correct on the CDC guidance to leave surgical masks/N95 to medical needs (due to shorages), but technically, surgical masks are similar to cloth masks from a general lack of effectiveness perspective with regard to protecting the wearer by filtering out droplets or small particles, so I was speaking about them together from that perspective.

They're not true filters like N95 respirators, which protect the wearer from viruses, but will work to keep sneezes/coughs inside the covering. Also, lately, surgical masks seem to be available. And lastly, since they don't protect the wearer that much, people shouldn't allow wearing a cloth/surgical mask to give them confidence to ignore the 6-foot social distancing guidance.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/covid-19-face-mask-advice-explained/

Probably a lot of us have a few n95 type masks around the house. I know I've used them for various projects (woodworking mainly). I assume you can't get them now (haven't been to a Lowes or HD for over a month) but that's what I plan to wear when I go out. Maybe put a surgical or cloth mask over it.

 

[RU-05]

They're not true filters like N95 respirators, which protect the wearer from viruses, but will work to keep sneezes/coughs inside the covering. Also, lately, surgical masks seem to be available. And lastly, since they don't protect the wearer that much, people shouldn't allow wearing a cloth/surgical mask to give them confidence to ignore the 6-foot social distancing guidance.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/covid-19-face-mask-advice-explained/

Not just coughing/sneezing, but just talking and breathing.

I'm not arguing against the 6 foot rule, but I think the mask is much more important.

 

[dvb91]

Interesting study in France with the use of a nicotine patch to help vs COVID.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...s-coronavirus-patients-frontline-workers.html

 

[ArminRU]

That sure is good news, that NYC that has been hit hardest with cases and deaths, has 21% with antibodies and therefore safe to return to society(most likely) is fabulous news and upstate with only 3.6% also reflects lack of cases , both helpful in planning reopening. Sample size was 3000 and only people outside working in grocery stores or shopping tested and no testing of total quarantined people but it just started MONDAY and NY will ramp it up quickly to 20,000 for a better estimate. NY has done more testing than anywhere so their numbers carry more wait than NJ or elsewhere that has been hit hard by this virus.

I know there is a lot of hope for Remdesiver as a treatment option, but I mentioned last week about a monoclonal antibody drug called Leronlimab made by Cytodyn , a small Vancouver biotech company , that is having success in treatment of Covid and the FDA has approved 2 studies for use for mild/ moderate cases and for severe cases and results hopefully will be known by May 12. Leronlimab has already been in Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials for the treatment of AIDS and for some Breast cancer , so it’s Covid use was an afterthought as an experimental drug ( which needs approval from the FDA every time it is used) and the company is trying to get it used for compassionate use, which will not require individual person approval and can just be used by doctors on the frontline. The early success is apparently 2 fold but the biggest thing it is a viral inhibitor that prevents the bodies immune system from attacking that I presume is causing the deaths of people on ventilators . The side effects in the treated patients are minimal so far. Too soon to know, but this drug used in combination with others , might be the treatment protocol for Covid and even prevent people from getting to the moderate or severe stage

Does Leronlimab only protect against cytokine storm or does it also help fight the virus?

 

[RU-05]

Interesting study in France with the use of a nicotine patch to help vs COVID.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...s-coronavirus-patients-frontline-workers.html

They are throwing everything at this wall.

 

[retired711]

Not just coughing/sneezing, but just talking and breathing.

I'm not arguing against the 6 foot rule, but I think the mask is much more important.

The link from @RU848789 indicates to the contrary; that the distancing is the most important thing, and that masks should not be used as a reason not to follow the six-foot rule.

 

[RU-05]

2 things I'm seeing that needs to be done right now.

1)Masks.

2)We need to figure out a way to isolate nursing homes. Military is how I see it.

 

[scarletrider]

Interesting. In US most people north of age 55 probably didnt get MMR. I was born in 1964 and never got MMR Had measles and mumps back to back in 68. No rubella.

i was curious to find out when they started making it a requirement at public school but couldn't find the info.
i know my kids in early 20's got it because without it the school wouldn't let them enroll. i know they still do in my district.

 

[RUevolution36]

The link from @RU848789 indicates to the contrary; that the distancing is the most important thing, and that masks should not be used as a reason not to follow the six-foot rule.

yep. distancing is the main safety measure, masks are an added necessary measure on top of it because distancing still has some limitations. not the other way around.

 

[RU2055]

Does Leronlimab only protect against cytokine storm or does it also help fight the virus?

This is one drug that does both (hypothetically).

 

[rutgersguy1]

Interesting study in France with the use of a nicotine patch to help vs COVID.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...s-coronavirus-patients-frontline-workers.html

So smoking is good for you lol? :Shocked

 

[RU#1fan]

Same thing with all those moron protesters who can't take a few weeks of SD - when many of these folks are the ones best equipped in their end-of-days bunkers. Imagine folks protesting like this during WWII about their "liberties" being abridged a bit or not being able to go to the salon.

As a small aside, epidemiologically, our best move still might have been to quarantine all school kids for 3-4 weeks with very young chaperones/teachers, so they all got infected and immune/not-contagious. Ethically, maybe a few hurdles, lol.

‘They’re all pansies. These morons need to suck it up.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Why is social distancing not working in NJ?

 

[rutgersguy1]

FDA approved plasma therapy study at Columbia back by Amazon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/fda...olumbia-study-of-plasma-covid-19-therapy.html

 

[retired711]

Why is social distancing not working in NJ?

Why do you say it's not? It hasn't solved the problem, but no one expected it to do that. Instead social distancing is intended to flatten the curve, and that's what it seems to be doing. There would be many more cases --and fatalities -- if we went about things the normal way.

 

[LETSGORU91]

My wife is an RD at a dialysis clinic and their covid positive patients are clogging their filters at a much higher rate. They says it's causing hypercoagulation. This is very common so not sure why this is just being uncovered.

This was addressed in an article posted here 3 or 4 weeks ago. Many places have identified the hypercoaguable state. Some were treating it therapeutically and many seemed to be addressing it but treating it sub-therapeutically (delivering doses less than recommended). I think in the last week or so, it has been brought more to the forefront as data is being dissected and is pointing out the problem more definitively. There are so many effects of this virus and this may have gotten buried a bit.

That's interesting. I think the peer pressure pendulum in our area has swung in support of masks. You really don't want to be "that guy" without a mask when you're out running errands. Most places won't let you in anyway.

I'm getting very used to the idea or wearing a mask just about everywhere. However, a week ago I went to my local watering hole to pick up an ordered boatload of dinners and I felt strange walking in with a mask. Lo and behold, 6 other guys spread about the bar, waiting for orders (plus the woman behind the bar) all wearing masks! No one drinking, no one talking..just sitting there doing nothing or looking at their phones. Such a weird scene...like a bad, bar dream. I get a text from my wife who was in the car, "beware incoming with no mask". Soon the door opens, guy with no mask. Every masked patron either turned or looked up at him and he quickly turned around and exited the bar. He came back in a minute with a mask. He was "that guy." Gave me a good laugh.

I just got back from Costco and a young woman (I'd say mid 20's) had her mask around her chin. Just about every customer who passed her told her to put her mask up. She didn't.

They should have doused her with the supersize 2 gallon Clorox bottle and wrapped her with the 200 ft of plastic wrap! Inconsiderate idiots like that are what will help keep this virus around and in bigger numbers.

 

[RU-05]

The link from @RU848789 indicates to the contrary; that the distancing is the most important thing, and that masks should not be used as a reason not to follow the six-foot rule.

Of coarse if every person can stand 20 ft away from every other person on earth then the virus will never spread.

But my argument from the beginning is that, this is not possible. It wasn't possible when people were claiming a 2 week complete shutdown would squash this thing, and it's not possible now when this thing is threatening to completely ruin this economy.
It's the masks.

 

[Akron Buck]

I will never get how as rich and powerful with as many companies as we have in the USA. That in 40 dasy we have not been ale to ramp up enough production to have all the tests, n95 masks, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes we would ever need.

i thought for sure by now we would easily be able to test anyone who showed any symptoms.

 

[RU848789]

Biggest news from Cuomo's presser...

21.2% in NYC are positive for antibodies and should now be immune and not contagious (preliminary data, though). I had been guessing 15%. Here's the data...

Note that it's good and bad that so many appear to have been infected. It's good to be further along towards herd immunity, but it's bad because it being that high might mean the R0 is quite high such that many more will eventually get infected before herd immunity is achieved.

Basically, due to the math of transmission rates and populations, for a very contagious virus, like this one with a proposed R0 of 5.7 (each infected person is expected to infect 5.7 others, with no interventions assumed), it would take an overall population infection level of 82% to achieve "herd immunity" the point at which the infection stops spreading (it'll slow down a lot before then).

If the R0 were 2.2 as was thought awhile back, herd immunity is achieved at about 55% of the population infected. It's why the antibody population data are so important. Today's news that 21% of NYC likely has antibodies (were infected, now should be immune) means the transmission rate will be slower and all those people should now be able to work/live without catching or giving the virus (but we still need massive testing to know who has it and doesn't - the studies are done with just a few thousand people approximating the whole population).

For any virus, one wants the R0 as low as possible, so less are at risk before the herd immunity is reached. If we have 20+% already infected, my fear is the R0 is closer to 5.7 meaning 80% could eventually get infected without any interventions, like social distancing, and if the true infection fatality rate were like the flu of 0.1%, then if 270MM Americans were infected, 270,000 would die. However, if the IFR were 0.5%, as it could be right now (11K deaths in NYC/2MM infected, as per the antibody sampling showing 21% infected), then that could be 1.4MM US deaths.

Remember, the "flattening" of the outbreak is not just about preventing the overwhelming of hospitals - it's also about avoiding the potential of hundreds of thousands of deaths while we wait for an effective treatment to prevent those deaths or a vaccine to prevent infections in the first place.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-60#post-4495665

 

[RU-05]

I will never get how as rich and powerful with as many companies as we have in the USA. That in 40 dasy we have not been ale to ramp up enough production to have all the tests, n95 masks, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes we would ever need.

i thought for sure by now we would easily be able to test anyone who showed any symptoms.

Because making 300 million of anything is not a quick process.

 

[RU-05]

Why is social distancing not working in NJ?

Part of the reason is certain parts of the population are not adhering to social distance policies.

But the real question, beyond the obviously passive aggressive one you ask, is: how do we keep this thing out of nursing homes? Because what we are doing now is not working in that regard.

 

[retired711]

Of coarse if every person can stand 20 ft away from every other person on earth then the virus will never spread.

But my argument from the beginning is that, this is not possible. It wasn't possible when people were claiming a 2 week complete shutdown would squash this thing, and it's not possible now when this thing is threatening to completely ruin this economy.
It's the masks.

No one has ever suggested a 20-foot distance, and no one has ever suggested that even six feet would solve the problem. It will, however, flatten the curve and, for reasons I assume you understand, that is very desirable. I would be very interested if you could find a source supporting your view that the masks are more important than the six foot distancing.

 

[RU-05]

No one has ever suggested a 20-foot distance, and no one has ever suggested that even six feet would solve the problem. It will, however, flatten the curve and, for reasons I assume you understand, that is very desirable. I would be very interested if you could find a source supporting your view that the masks are more important than the six foot distancing.

I said 20 ft for dramatic effect.

6' would be great, but how possible is it? I go to the grocery store, and as much as I try, I get within 6' of people multiple times per visit.

In one of the recent posts on this thread there is a link which references I think Hong Kong which notes the importance of masks and how they have been able to keep infections so low.

And imo it is obvious via empirical evidence, it sucks to wear the mask because your breath is trapped.

Edit: From previous page,

Hong Kong’s health authorities credit their citizens’ near-universal mask-wearing as a key factor (surveys show almost 100 percent voluntary compliance). Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in other public places—a recommendation that has been widely complied with. The country continues to function fully, and their schools have been open since the end of February, while their death total remains very low, at only six.

 

[CERU00]

But the real question, beyond the obviously passive aggressive one you ask, is: how do we keep this thing out of nursing homes? Because what we are doing now is not working in that regard.

That's an understatement...if I had a loved one in a nursing home I would have removed them by now.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Why do you say it's not? It hasn't solved the problem, but no one expected it to do that. Instead social distancing is intended to flatten the curve, and that's what it seems to be doing. There would be many more cases --and fatalities -- if we went about things the normal way.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...e-coronavirus-over-for-nj-murphy-says-no.html

 

[retired711]

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...e-coronavirus-over-for-nj-murphy-says-no.html

What are you relying on here? And for what proposition? The piece says that social distancing has helped.

 

[Scarlet4Shore]

Part of the reason is certain parts of the population are not adhering to social distance policies.

But the real question, beyond the obviously passive aggressive one you ask, is: how do we keep this thing out of nursing homes? Because what we are doing now is not working in that regard.

In my opinion, part of the problems with it in nursing homes is that nurses aides usually work in more than one facility. The pay is not a living wage. I think that months ago, in addition to visitors, CNAs going between facilities brought the virus with them.